Week 10 MS college football preview

First thing I want to point out is that this is WEEK TEN of the college football season!  You know how you couldn't wait for the season to start in June, July, Aug... Well it is almost over now.  We have rolled into the month of November.  This is basically the last month of the season.  You better really take in this month because it will be over in a blink.  Bowl season will be gone and we will be sitting in the miserable month of February wondering what we are going to watch on tv.

Southern Miss is absolutely atrocious.  They lost to RICE by 27 points.  Rice is not good at football.  Prior to playing USM they had only won 2 games.  USM is 2 and 6 against the spread this year.  Basically USM would have been the best team in all of football to bet against this year. 

The Eagles are a 3 point favorite this weekend against UAB.  This game may match up the worst 2 teams in college football.  I honestly know nothing about UAB beside the fact that they only have one win, against a FCS school (Southeastern Louisiana).  Based on stats it appears UAB can actually score points, but their defense gives up much more.  Southern Miss gives up a lot of points.  It really doesnt even matter who wins this game so I am going to move on to another topic. 

Ole Miss has been equally shockingly good as USM has been shockingly bad.  The Rebels have far exceeded my expections of win totals for the year already.  1 more win and the Rebels are bowl eligible.  Hugh Freeze would be my coach of the year if that happens.  The road is tough in the SEC in November though, so it will take quality football to get that last win.

Ole Miss fans have been sitting on a high horse this week after a win at Arkansas.  I predicted the win, so it did not come as any shock to me when Ole Miss won.  Arkansas is terrible this year.  Their defense is without a doubt the worst in the SEC.  Tyler Wilson looks worse and worse every week.  The guy should have thrown at least 4 ints against Ole Miss in the first half.  Some passes looked like he was throwing to the defenders.  Ole Miss gave up 161 yards rushing to Dennis Johnson.  If Arkansas had run the ball more they would have won the game.  Not to take anything away from Ole Miss, but Tyler Wilson lost this game for the Razorbacks.

The opponent this week does not have a bad defense and they have everything on the line.  Ole Miss has their work cut out for them this week on the road in Athens.  Georgia does not boast a running game that has major statistics, but last week I watched them run the ball at will against Florida.  Florida has a significantly better run defense than Ole Miss.  If Georgia commits to the run they will run for 250+ yard this week.

Georgia won the game against Florida simply because their qb didnt't play quite as bad as Florida's did.  Quarterback play is becoming a reoccuring theme in relation to wins and losses.  Ole Miss is getting quality quarterback play out of Bo Wallace which is giving them a chance week in and week out.  The Ole Miss coaching staff is really smart with a lot of play calls.  They throw a lot of slip/bubble screens, stop routes, and just short passes in general.  These are all extensions of the running game and are really high percentage plays.  Watch the Ole Miss offense this week they will run the counter power/read out of shotgun and out of the same formation they will throw a stop route to the outside with 1 or 2 receivers blocking.  They ran the same combination of plays 10+ times against both Auburn and Arkansas.  They ran the same play 2 to 3 times in a row at least 5 times against Arkansas.  I credit the Ole Miss coaching staff.  It sounds simple, but if a team is not going to adjust keep doing it.   

Ole Miss will have a chance between the hedges this week if Georgia starts trying to throw the ball a lot.  Aaron Murray is much like Tyler Wilson... overrated.  If Georgia tries to get fancy and Murray turns the ball over multiple times the Rebels will be in this game at the end.  If Georgia plays conservative and sticks to running the ball and playing great defense they will win the game by 14+ points. 

Mississippi State lost to Alabama last weekend.  I really did not expect anything else.  I hoped the Bulldogs would win, but I understood what they were against.  Bama is not losing to anyone this year.  This may be the most balanced college football team I have ever seen.  They have an incredible offensive line that allows them to be balanced, their defense is out of this world good, their special teams is perfect, and they arguably have the greatest college football coach ever.  Mark it down.. They will beat LSU by 2-3 touchdowns this week in a night game at Tiger Stadium.  After 10 weeks if you have the number 1 scoring defense and the number 9th scoring offense, in the SEC, you have an incredible football team.  I originally said 3 touchdowns, but after looking stats of the LSU defense they will hold Bama down some on offense. 

The whole we believe deal last week was interesting.  It showed a fan base that has changed over the last several years.  The movement was quick and strong, but that movement really needs to be this week.  I believe in Mississippi State.  The change I have seen over the last 5 years is amazing.  Everything about the University and the athletic program has done a 180.  I never hide from the fact that I am a MSU alumni, fan, season ticket holder, etc, etc.  I believe in the direction MSU is going.  One loss to Alabama is not going to change my thoughts on that.  The we believe needs to be in full effect this Saturday.     

You will hear me say 'this is the biggest game for a team this year' a lot, but I really think this is the number 1 biggest game of the year for MS State.  Texas A&M is playing good football over the last few weeks.  MSU is coming back from Tuscaloosa with their tails tucked.  The line on this game opened at TAMU -2.5.  It quickly moved to -7.  The line currently sits a 6.5-7.  One thing I know is that you will really see what the Bulldogs are made of this Saturday.  Are they a championship caliber team or are they just average again?

Number 1 key to this game is stopping Manziel.  I watched the LSU game against TAMU.  Manziel and the Aggies came out on FIRE early, but LSU made adjustments.  LSU has superior athletes to MSU on defense, but LSU stopped Manziel by rushing 3 guys with blitzers off the corner.  His running ability, at this point in his career, is superior to his passing ability.  LSU, after the first quarter, had a spy on Manziel.  They rotated which side they blitzed from to keep him off guard.  When LSU blitzed they put the spy opposite of the blitzers expecting Manziel to roll that way.  The people making the defensive decisions for MSU have expentially more knowledge than I do about defenses and make a lot more money than I do.  That, however, does not keep me from having an opinion.  What I think MSU needs to do to stop Manziel is drop a lot of guys in coverage and make him drive the ball (10-15 play drives).  If you make him do that he will make mistakes/turnovers.  If MSU can get 2-3 turnovers they will win this game.

There is nothing wrong with MSU on offense.  They just met a superior opponent last week.  Texas A&M is not even in the same country as Bama on defense.  MSU will move the ball and get points on the board.  The key in this game is not at all the offense.  The key is the paragraphs above.  The key is the MSU defense showing what they are made of and stopping Manziel.  It will take an entire 60 minute effort from everyone to contain the guy.  If the defense lets their guard down for 1 play he will be gone.  Time to really see what this MSU team is all about!