MSU Football Preview 2012

MSU Stadium Expansion

When I start thinking about where I am going to go with my predictions for Mississippi State my mind goes in about 20 different directions.  This is always the most difficult blog of the year for me because of my love for MS State.  I have been a fan of the school for as long as I can remember.  I have always made it known when writing this that I try to stay unbiased as possible but when you are invested in something it becomes difficult at times.   These are just a few of the thoughts I always have… I don’t want to say too high of a win total because I don’t want to jinx them, I may say a low total so they exceed my expectations, or I may not even make a prediction at all(at least not publicly).  If you are a fan of a team you have probably thought those exact same comments before.  I have thought long and hard about this blog. 

Going into this season I feel like this may be the most talented MS State team I have ever seen.  This team has countless explosive players, great experience, leadership at all positions, good coaching, and a mixture of talented young guys.  That is the formula to a really good football team.  Timing is the problem because Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and even Auburn have great programs.  T he oldest sports quote in the book is “to be the best you have to beat the best” and this football team is right up in it.

I have talked about how hard it has been for MSU to go from good to great several times.  Dan Mullen has talked about it hundreds of times.  That extra little bit is the difference between 1 or 2 extra wins.  The players on every team put in a couple of thousand hours of training for that 1 play.  The Bulldogs have the talent to compete with every team they play, and if someone makes that 1 play the best case scenario prediction is reachable for this football team.

The defense this year will be top 4 or 5 in the SEC and top 15 or 20 in the country.  The defense probably has 7-10 guys that will get a shot at the NFL.  Key to the defense this year is to get off the field on 3^rd downs.  Denico Autrey may be the solution to this with his pass rush.  A strong pass rush and a good secondary has led the NY Giants to 2 Super Bowls (MSU post here but Eli helped too).    I have a lot of confidence in this defense even if the offense starts to stall.  If the offense gets going and can keep this defense off the field then it will be fun to watch.  When I say get going I don’t mean score 6 touchdowns against LSU or Bama because that’s just not happening.  What I mean is get a couple of first downs and shift field position.  Watch out for Darius Slay!

On to the offense where I think the only real question mark is a BIG one and it involves the offensive line.  Tyler Russell can make every throw on the football field IF he has time.  The line will benefit from injuries last year.  Some young guys were thrown into the fire of SEC football allowing them to gain valuable experience.  If MS State can get consistent play from 8 or 9 offensive linemen Tyler Russell will put up stats and wins.

Best case scenario for MSU in 2012: (10-2) – The fact is I cannot in my right mind pick MSU to beat LSU or Bama.  Remember this is the best case scenario!

Worst case scenario for MSU in 2012: (6-6) – It would be a devastating season if MSU lost more than 6 regular season games. 

Prediction for 2012:  (8-4) – Like with my prediction for USM I swayed back and forth between 8 and 9 wins.  I had to go with the lower number until I witness MSU make one of those plays that takes them over the hump.  Biggest game of the year is against Auburn at 11AM on Sept 8.  Win that game and anything is possible!     

Head Coach - Dan Mullen

  

 

 

      

Overall 2012 Football Preview

College football has turned into a monster.  There is not a single event in many towns/states that achieves an economic impact anywhere close to a college football weekend.  Some hotels, restaurants, catering companies, etc. make their entire year from 6 or 7 home football game weekends.  The only other events that compare are NFL games.  I have talked to hundreds of people this offseason about football and all have said at some point in our conversation how ready they are for football.  Well we are here!  A few thoughts I have going into the season.

This will be the last time I talk about Penn State and Sandusky.  The punishment laid down on Penn State was above and beyond what was necessary.  The people this punishment will impact had nothing to do with Sandusky or the rest of the program.  I am in no way endorsing what happened because I think it is disgusting to say the least.  It will be 20 years before Penn State is relevant again in football.  This lack of relevancy will hurt local merchants in and around State College, PA(economic impact).  I understand why the NCAA put down the sanctions they did, but I don’t agree with the harshness of them.

This probably goes without saying, but the SEC will be awesome again.  Almost half the conference has the ability to make a run at the SEC/NCAA championship (Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, South Carolina).  I would not rule out the possibility of another SEC/SEC national championship game.  The SEC deserves a shot to defend the title until someone knocks them off.  I can’t even make a prediction for the SEC Championship game because I really think all of the above teams have a shot at it.  One play in a season will be what separates one or two of the above teams from the rest.  You will notice the play when you see it because the media juggernaut known as ESPN will show/talk about it at least 1,000 times.

The national media loves it when they have the chance to hype either USC or Notre Dame.  This year I was shocked to see Notre Dame not ranked in the preseason Top 25 because no matter what it seems like they always are.  The team the media is riding this year is the University of Southern California.  The Trojans return some major talent and deserve the right to be called one of the best preseason teams.  At worst this team will be a 10 win team, but I think the “under the radar” Oregon Ducks may be the best Pac-12 Team.  What I would tell you to look for this year for USC is elevated spreads.  Preseason they have 6 games with a 3+ TD spread.  Opening game spread against Hawaii Saturday is -40.  If Hawaii scores 1 TD the Trojans probably don’t cover.  If the spreads start to get out of control I like whoever is playing USC against the spread.  More times than not underdogs in large spread games are a good pick(especially Nick Saban coached teams because he does not leave starters in to run up the score).

Will a major team run through their schedule undefeated?  I always look at preseason schedules and think yes several teams should be able to do this, but they all end up losing to a team they should dominate.  Not sure how many teams can win all their games, but if we have 2 or 3 undefeated teams with a couple of 1 loss SEC teams then all hell could break loose.  I kind of hope it happens.

Opening weekend games that I like  

Penn State -6 against Ohio - I like this pick because I feel like this team will play this game with a lot of built up emotion, kind of an US against the world mentality.  Penn State has more talent than Ohio.  The sanctions against Penn State won't really start impacting the program until next year. 

Troy -6 against UAB – Troy will be an above average small team this year while UAB will be a bad.

Southern Miss +20 against Nebraska – If USM can get something from their quarterback this game will be close.  

Ole Miss 2012 Football Preview

Ole Miss 2012 Hype Video

University of Mississippi 2012 Football Preview

 

Ole Miss Football had what has to be considered an epic meltdown in 2011 with only 2 wins.  My worst case scenario pick last year for Ole Miss was 4-8, but the lame duck coaching staff and players quit.  No one with a brain would have said prior to the 2011 season that Ole Miss was only going to win 2 games or lose to Vandy, Kentucky, & LaTech by 2+ touchdowns.  Houston Nutt left behind a circus when he left town with millions. That is behind the program now.  A new coaching staff is intact along with a new athletic director. 

New head football coach Hugh Freeze has his work cut out for him in 2012 and beyond.  I like the attitude Freeze has had heading into this season.  His coaching staff, players, and fans are going to need his upbeat attitude during the grind of the season, especially late.  Will Hugh Freeze be successful at Ole Miss?  Not this year and probably not next year, but with some time and University support he could build the program back up to a respectable level.  Freeze has won at every level he has coached.  Until he doesn’t win I have to believe he will steady the ship in Oxford, if given appropriate time.

 

A Clarion Ledger headline on Ole Miss was titled “Picking up the tempo”.  I understand everything said in the article, but I do not see that being able to work this year.  The Rebels do not have the depth on either side of the ball to take a fast pace game into the 4^th quarter.  You have to be two deep at virtually every position to run 80+ plays on offense in a competitive football game.  If you do not have the depth you won’t run 80+ plays because your players will tire out and become less efficient.  A less efficient offense that is going fast punishes your own defense not the other team.  If the offense runs 3 quick plays then has to punt the defense is right back on the field in less than 1 minute of game time.  A defense that lacks depth, like Ole Miss, will not be able to handle this into the 3^rd & 4^th quarters.

Bad news for Ole Miss is that they have a quarterback controversy… Good news is that they actually have 2 quarterbacks that are capable SEC quarterbacks.  The Rebels lack depth on the offensive line, but they have some experience returning and talk out of Rebel camp is that the line has come together.  This team has a couple of serious ballers at some skilled positions.  I consistently rave about Donte Moncrief because I think he is awesome.  I believe if he keeps his head right he could be a very successful NFL receiver in the future, maybe even a Pro Bowl candidate.  The running back situation is not SEC caliber, but there is still talent (Scott/Mackey) and some depth there.  If the offense can catch a few breaks, keep guys healthy, and get some consistency at quarterback then this unit should at the very least put some fans in the seats by scoring points.

The real negative I see in this football team is the defense.  Mike Marry and Charles Sawyer are going to produce if healthy, but what else does Ole Miss have?  The defensive front better have several players emerge, or it will be a long year for a defense that ranked last in the SEC last year.  Ole Miss will be running a base defense of 4-2-5.  People that don’t know what that means 4 (linemen), 2 (linebackers), and 5 (defensive backs).  A football team with a running game will pound that defensive set up especially if the front 4 are subpar.  I just don’t see many positives for this side of the ball heading into the 2012 season.  If people don’t emerge this unit could be an embarrassment.  (Ole Miss does have a really good punter so hopefully he will continue to help the defense as much as he can) 

Best case scenario for Ole Miss in 2012: (6-6) If Hugh Freeze accomplishes this feat then he deserves every coach of the year honor in the country.  A (6-6) record and a bowl bid would be equivalent to a SEC Championship for this team. 

Worst case scenario for Ole Miss in 2012: (2-10) I really don’t see this being possible, but I had to put it because it was achieved last year. 

Prediction for Ole Miss in 2012: (4-8) Ole Miss should take wins from Central Arkansas, UTEP, and Tulane.  I feel like the Rebels will win another game at some point in their season giving them a total of 4.  This team will be competitive in many more games than last year, but their overall lack of depth will show late in games.

 

Head Coach: Hugh Freeze

Defensive Coordinator: Dave Wommack/Wesley McGriff 

Offensive Coordinator: Matt Luke/Dan Werner

Returning Starters: (Offense 6, Defense 7, Specialist 2)

2012 Football Schedule



USM 2012 Football Preview

USM 2012 hype video

University of Southern Mississippi 2012 Football Preview 

Most people that read this blog will read the other prediction blogs, so I will say this just one time.  Preseason predictions are almost impossible because of the large number of unknowns heading into a new football season.  The unknowns are part of what makes the anticipation so great.  If I knew these predictions were going to all be spot on I would be on an airplane to Las Vegas right now.  With all that being said… here we go!

The 2012 USM team heads into the season with new people in important positions. The most obvious is new head football coach Ellis Johnson.   I was/am a fan of this hire by USM. Ellis Johnson was the sole reason why Sylvester Croom ever went to a bowl game at MSU. He will do a great job leading the football program at USM. The only possible negative I can see in the hire of Johnson is his age (60 years old).

The departure of long term QB (Austin Davis) leaves another new situation in Hattiesburg at quarterback. It is going to be weird for me not seeing Davis at QB because it feels like he has been the QB there for 10 years. It looks like redshirt junior Chris Campbell is getting the nod at QB Saturday against Nebraska. No matter who is the starting QB for USM they will benefit from a solid offensive line (4 potential seniors starting) and good defense under Johnson & Tommy West.  I look for USM to rely on their running game and defense this season, especially early.

I have seen a couple of different comments from Nebraska that say "Respect your opponent". I believe this rallying cry is directly pointed at USM. The current line on this game has Nebraska favored by 19-20.5 points. The line came out at 17.5 so the public has been on Nebraska early. USM winning in Lincoln would be a major upset. I would not be shocked by a close game, but the QB situation is going to be a tough mountain for this team to get over playing at Nebraska. That comment is no indication as to how well the overall season will be for the quarterbacks at USM. The fact is playing at Nebraska in your first start is a tough draw.

All is not lost with an opening season loss to Nebraska because one positive in playing Nebraska early is that every opponent following that game will have less talent. Second week of the year is an open date for USM. This will give them a chance to regroup for a strong push through the rest of their 2012 season.  Normally I am not a fan of early season open weeks, but this may serve well for USM with the unsettled QB situation.

USM has 2 really fun home games this year on back to back weekends. The two games are Louisville and Boise State. Louisville was once a heated rival of USM. Boise State has recently been a national powerhouse.  If USM can take wins from both of these teams the best case scenario definitely starts to look like a possibility.   

Best case scenario for USM (10-2)

Worst case scenario for USM (7-5)

Prediction for 2012 Season (8-4) I swayed back and forth between 8 and 9 wins for this, but I finally decided on 8 wins because USM slips up and loses to an inferior team every year.  USM would have been in a BCS bowl game last year if they had not dropped the ball against UAB.  Vegas will have USM favored in 9 or 10 of their games.  A couple of those games will almost be picks with lines of less than 3.

Fun fact about USM: The incoming freshman students at USM are all around 18 years old. It has been 18 years since there has been a losing season in Hattiesburg, so the current freshman class has never seen USM have a losing season. 

Head Coach: Ellis Johnson

Defensive Coordinator: Tommy West

Offensive Coordinator: Steve Buckley

Returning Starters: (Offense 6, Defense 4, Specialist 2)

Returning Letterwinners: (Offense 22, Defense 18, Specialist 2)

Letterwinners Lost: (Offense 7, Defense 13, Specialisty 3)

2012 Football Schedule