Lineman TD

Lineman TD

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Week 12 Analysis/Week 13 Preview

Where did the football season go?? This week is the final regular season week of the year for most teams. I can't say this was the best season I can remember, but there were some great moments, games, and upsets. The top 3 teams in the SEC are unbelievably talented. They have run through everyone except each other. The final regular season week of the year has LSU in yet another huge game. Scheduling has not been on the side of the Tigers this year, but when you have a great football team you can overcome a little bad scheduling. This is the first of the big games for LSU that is actually at home where everyone knows LSU definitely has a home field advantage.

The road to the National Championship is officially wide open with Oklahoma State losing Friday. OK State lost to an Iowa State team that was a 26.5 point underdog. Oklahoma did almost the same thing when they lost to Texas Tech on October 22nd. Texas Tech was a 29 point underdog in that game. I really don't see how a team with everything on the line loses to a significant underdog. I can't contribute the OK State loss to them looking ahead because they have a bye this week. If their game against Oklahoma was this weekend I could maybe understand the let down. OK State can officially kiss their chance at a National Championship good bye. If LSU and Bama both win out I think we will get a rematch in the National Championship.

Not sure where to start with USM. Yes they played on a short week which is always difficult, but they were playing against a football team that is not very good. USM was a 24 point favorite. I will say the same thing I said about Ok State and Oklahoma. How does a team with so much on the line come out flat and lose to a significantly inferior opponent? I have no answer to that question, so I will move forward to this week. USM had a chance at an unbelievable season, but all is not lost. A Memphis team that is probably one of the worst 3 or 4 teams in the nation comes to Hattiesburg this Saturday as a 35-36 point underdog. Everything is on the line Saturday for USM. A win sets USM up for a matchup against Houston in the C-USA Championship. There is just no way a team that has a chance to play in the conference championship does not get up for the final regular season home game. USM wins this game, but I don't see it getting anywhere close to the 35 point spread.

Everyone reading this is well aware that this is the week when MSU and Ole Miss battle for the Golden Egg. The Egg Bowl this year will represent the 108th meeting between Ole Miss and MS State. Ole Miss leads the series 60-41-6. Currently MS State is in control of this series with back to back wins. Ms State could win 3 in a row for the first time in my life time if they can get a win Saturday (Ole Miss has won 3+ games in a row 3 times in my life). MSU holds the longest win streak. MSU won 13 straight from 1911-1925. This was way before my time so I really could care less about that stat, but it is something cool to know. If you know me well you know I respect sporting events that took place before I was alive, but I really don't care about them. Who won the National Championship in 1962 is completely irrelevant to me for a couple of reasons. First - I was not even alive Second- 3 teams claimed the title that year. You really don't have a champion if 3 teams are claiming they are the champ. FYI - I picked 1962 because that is when Ole Miss won their most recent "National Championship".

On to what everyone really cares about.. the 2011 edition of the Egg Bowl. I will lead with Ole Miss. A lot of talk this week was about LSU downing the ball 4 straight times on the 1 yard line with 5+/- minutes left in the game. I feel like Les Miles was doing this out of respect, but this is the ultimate slap in the face for a coaching staff and football team. Ole Miss will be going to Starkville without their most valuable 2 weapons on offense (Mackey and Scott). With them the Ole Miss offense was pretty bad, but without them they are awful. Ole Miss will have a very tough time sustaining a drive in this game. The Rebels may get a few big plays out of Moncrief or Brassell, but they just don't have the offense to drive the length of the field with a 10+ play drive.

Here is what is going to happen in this game. The Ole Miss offense will not be able to get anything going against a MSU defense that is just better. I am not saying MS State has a great defense, but this is the worst Ole Miss offense I have ever seen. The Ole Miss defense which lacks depth at every position especially up front will start the game off strong. The lack of offense from the Rebels will cause the defense to wear down once the initial emotions of the rivalry game fade off. Once the Ole Miss defense wears down MSU will just start pounding them with the running game. If Vick Ballard gets 20+ touches this game State easily wins. If he had gotten 20+ touches every game this year MS State would have 2 more victories. Simply put if Dan Mullen does not try to out coach himself with crazy play calls MSU wins this game. If MSU scores 10+ points they probably leave with a win and a trip to a bowl game. My bold prediction in this game is that MSU covers.

Blog is long this week so I am only going to have one additional comment.

The Arkansas/LSU game is one that intrigues me because it is not very often that you have a top 5 matchup where the spread is over 10 points(currently 12-13). Vegas clearly respects LSU. My key question in this game is can Arkansas protect Tyler Wilson?? I am not sure that is possible against this LSU defense, but if they are able to give him time to throw he could make some stuff happen. This will be the best group of skill players the LSU defense has faced all year. The talent of the skill players is really irrelevant though if the line can't protect the quarterback. If Tyler Wilson stays off the ground this game could be close.. If LSU starts to knock him around the Bayou Bengals will have this sealed up heading in the 4th quarter. A hidden fact in this game is that Arkansas is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home(loss at Bama and 2 close wins at Vandy and Ole Miss). I think LSU wins this game by 3 touchdowns.. bet on it.

I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving Holiday!! Thank you for reading!

Friday, November 18, 2011

DEER SEASON!!!!


I am going a little different direction with this blog away from college football toward deer hunting. One of the great joys in my life is deer hunting. The reasons are really endless. In my opinion there are really 3 opening days for deer season in Mississippi. They are bow season, rifle season, and rut. Today/tonight there will be a lot of people across the state of MS loading up with family and friends to go to deer camp. Weekends like this are when I appreciate living in MS where spending time at hunting camp with people close to you are a part of life.

This hunting season may be my most special one yet just because of how hard it has been to get back to this point. The last 5 months have been about trying to get things back to normal after the flood that will be known as the Great MS River Flood of 2011. The road back has been far from easy, and it is something I hope I don’t have to ever deal with again. I have had countless people spend hours and hours helping me. To everyone that helped me I say THANK YOU because there is no way I could have done it without all of you. All things being said everything is getting close to normal. From the 6,000+ pictures I have gone through since September the deer herd looks solid on Davis Island. The pictures I have pulled have been a serious help with motivation through the middle of all the hard work.

Over the last few years I have grown to learn more and more about deer. One thing that consistently comes up is hunting a mature white tail deer (4.5 years or older) is extremely difficult. These animals are typically very smart. Most serious hunters are well aware of how smart these animals are because if you have hunted one you have failed before. Many people are constantly talking about how much a deer scored, and I will admit I am one of the worst about it. The real truth is that if you kill a buck, whether it is small or large, that is a mature animal you should be proud of yourself.

I have been thinking back the last few days about my hunting experiences last year. Last year I killed the biggest deer of my life up to this point, but as crazy as it may sound that was not my best hunting experience of the year. My last hunt of the year last season was one with Stephanie. During the hunt there were deer everywhere. I can’t remember the exact amount but it was around 13 or 14 with 5 nice bucks in the field at one time. After the hunt we talked a little about what had happened. I don’t know if she realized how unbelievable of an experience that was until I told her that was the best hunt I had ever been on in my life. It is afternoons like that where you really appreciate the opportunity to experience something like that.


These experiences I talk about do not start or end on the stand. They start with hunting camps. One of the things I have discovered over the last few years is that hunting camps are more along the lines of a social club than a hunting club. There are some people who are serious hunters. However, these people are way in the minority at my camp and at most camps I have been to. Hunting camps do start with people hoping to kill that great trophy buck, but they are more about everything else than actually killing something. If you read that and don’t understand what I am talking about you are missing out on one of the finer things in the life of a hunter.


I hope everyone reading this that is hunting this weekend/year has some good “experiences”. You will know when they come because it will be something you don’t forget. This is probably not being read by many people who don’t hunt, but if you are one of them then get someone to take you. At the very least you will get to experience some peace and quite which is valued at a premium these days. Thank you for reading and Good Luck! Wally









Monday, November 14, 2011

Week 11 Analysis/Week 12 Preview

Two more high ranked teams fell this weekend. Earlier in the day TCU knocked off Boise State and later in the day Oregon beat Stanford. Everyone may say Boise State had the curse of the kicker again, but if you look at the stats from this game you have to give credit to TCU. They absolutely torched the Boise State defense through the air. All that aside an incredible streak came to an end with this loss. Boise State had not lost a home game in a decade (65 games). A stat almost as impressive as that is that Boise State has lost 4 games dating back to their 2007 bowl game loss all by 3 or less points. Every person you ask about Boise State will have a different opinion. My opinion on Boise State is that they have a football program that all but 5 or 6 other programs in the country wish they had. Could Boise State win the SEC? Probably not, but that really is an irrelevant question because they will never have a chance.

Southern Miss fans do not have a single finger nail after watching the ending to their game against UCF. Stats on this game show that USM completely dominated every aspect of the game except the scoreboard. Credit the UCF defense for consistently holding USM to field goals. USM found a way to win the game and as I always say a win is a win. USM has clinched at least a share of the CUSA East. If they win one of their next two games against drastically inferior opponents they will be given an opportunity to play Houston in the championship game. USM plays on a short week against UAB Thursday night. This game is being televised by CBS Sports Network at 7. USM is currently a 23 point favorite in this game. I look for USM to easily win this game, but 23 points may be too many on a short week. USM entered their last game with a 7 game winning streak against the spread.

Not only have the wheels come off the wagon in Oxford, but the axle has broken too. I don't know which loss is worse for the Rebels.. The 23 point loss to Vandy, the 17 point loss to Kentucky, or the 20 point loss to La Tech. You ask an Ole Miss fan which of those they would rather have and they would really have to think about an answer. The thought of having all three of those in 1 season honestly never crossed my mind as something that could happen. With 2 games left what does the Ole Miss football team do? They obviously have no shot this weekend against LSU who opened as a 30.5 point favorite. As bad as it may sound, but any line under 30 against LSU could be a good bet. The line currently sits a 29.5. If you are an Ole Miss fan just sell your ticket to someone from LSU and sit in the Grove during this one.

Arkansas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between them and Mississippi State. Mississippi State has never won at War Memorial Stadium. Arkansas is currently a 13 point favorite. This will be the 5th top 15 team the Bulldogs play this year with a loss to the prior 4. All things on paper point toward a Bulldog loss. However, this is college football and you are dealing with 18-22 year olds. The Arkansas team is absolutely looking forward to their game next Friday against LSU. If they win the game against LSU they could represent the west in Atlanta and probably the SEC in the National Championship. I can't sit here and predict MS State will win this game because Arkansas is a far superior football team than MSU. However, if MSU can get some early breaks this game could be close in the end just like the match up last year in Starkville. That game went back in forth and could not even be settled without overtime.

Several Other Thoughts:

The Oklahoma State offense is one of the best I can remember watching, but I think they slip against Oklahoma next week leaving the door wide open for a 1 loss team to slip into the National Championship

TCU currently is a 33 point favorite over Colorado State. This is an interesting line because I think TCU may have a let down after their win against Boise State. I am absolutely not picking an upset in this game, but I think the underdog would be a good bet getting 33 in this game.

Vanderbilt heads to Knoxville this weekend for a game against Tennessee. If Vandy wins they become bowl eligible and keep UT out of the post season. Before the year that is something I would have never predicted, but it is a testament as to how well Vandy has played this year. Vandy is a 1.5 point favorite. This would be a huge win for Vanderbilt football.

The champion of the SEC East will be decided this weekend when Georgia takes down Kentucky at home. The hardest two games were the first two of the year for Georgia. The 8 game win streak they currently have is credited as much to their schedule as their play. This team won't really be tested again until the SEC Championship game.

The Heisman race at this point in the year is as wide open as I have ever seen it. Andrew Luck was a clear front runner until their loss to Oregon. I would still classify him as the leader, but if Brandon Weeden from OK State continues to rip defenses apart he may win it. Trent Richardson and Case Keenum also have strong arguments. No matter who is the leader right now the last few weeks of the season are going to decide the winner. Someone needs to step up and have their Heisman moment.

Shifting directions a little toward the NBA because the situation they are in right now deserves to be talked about. I am probably one of the few people you will hear that is a fan of the NBA. I am really not sure if I just like the NBA because I like all sports, but this professional organization provides a quality product especially in the playoffs. It is a shame they are in the situation they currently are in because there will be a lot of people hurt financially if they do not play a game. The players and owners are the least of my worries. When I talk about people being hurt financially I am talking about the taxi drivers, the bars/restaurants around the arenas, the hotels, the merchant vendors, the security companies, the concession vendors, the employees of the organizations, etc., etc. These are the people who really hurt during a lockout. A full season lockout will have an economic impact in the billions.

This won't be my only blog post this week. I will be posting a blog on Friday. As always thanks for reading and please continue to send your thoughts and comments.

Wally

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Week 10 Analysis/Week 11 Preview

I am going to start this post by saying some crazy things have happened in college football since Sunday. I will get into the Ole Miss coaching situation a little later, so I will start with the whole situation going on at Penn State. I scanned the federal indictment as much as I could tolerate. I won't get into details because it is pretty disturbing to say the least. This Sandusky character is guilty. If you read the indictment they have proof of him commiting crimes against kids from 1994 to 2009. The indictment says 8 kids were singled out in the investigation. I would speculate he probably commited crimes against another 20 or 30 kids that aren't going to come forward because of how embarassing something like this would be. This guy used an organization that assisted under priveledged kids to help him fulfill his twisted desire to commit heinous crimes against children. The NCAA does not have the backbone or the authority to really do anything to Penn State on this, so the US goverment must drop the hammer on EVERYONE. Joe Paterno is saying he will finish the year out. The conspiracy theorist in me is saying he is coaching the rest of the year so he can set the record for the most games ever coached. He currently is tied for first. If JoePa is allowed to coach to break a record then sports have lost touch with reality. Sports and especially records are not more important than the safety of children. This should not be tolerated in America.

Not sure how to transition from the prior paragraph to USM, so I am just going to jump right into a much more pleasant topic to talk about. If USM can keep their focus they will finish the season with only 1 loss. They are significantly more talented than the remaining three teams on their schedule. UCF comes to Hattiesburg this weekend as arguably the best team remaining on the schedule. USM is a 9 point favorite in a 7PM game that is being televised on CBS Sports Network. I look for USM to come out focused and up for this game. The Rock should be a good home atmosphere. USM wins this game by 2+ touchdowns.

If you are reading this then you are well aware of the situation in Oxford. Pete Boone has announce he will be stepping down sometime in 2012 with Houston Nutt being fired at the end of the year. Having a coach finish the year out after being told he will be fired is not a common thing. Nutt has pledged that he will give Ole Miss just as much effort in coaching the remaining games as he has up to this point. I think Nutt is saying/doing this because he feels guilty about the 6 million dollar buyout Ole Miss owes him on top of his current salary. Las Vegas doesn't think Houston Nutt will be prepared. Line for this game came out at Ole Miss -1. Since it was announced that he was being fired the line has moved to La Tech -2. Ms State will quickly tell you La Tech is not a bad team. I would be surprised to see Ole Miss come out of this game with a win. The Rebels will probably start the game off good like they have because the players will rally around the lame duck coach, but once the momentum wears off I think La Tech will slowly take over the game.

Good news for Ms State this week is that they have won 2 games in a row against far inferior opponents. These two games were paired with a bye week allowing the Bulldogs to get some guys healthy. Only person missing is Tobias Smith who is out for the season. This will be the best team MS State has put on the field since their game against Auburn. Other good news for MS State is that Bama comes into this weekend with some major contributors hurting. All that being said I still can't predict MS State keeping this game close. Line on this is between 17 and 18. Bama has a lot better chance of covering the spread than MS State has to win. However, if the Bulldogs get a few breaks and play a solid game anything could happen. College football week in and week out proves to us how unpredictable it is.

Other thoughts for the week:

Oregon vs Stanford this week is a good game to keep an eye on. If Stanford can get a win in this game they will have a smooth road to the National Championship. Stanford is undefeated this year against the spread which is an unbelievable stat, but this is the best team they have faced up to this point. It is hard to pick against Stanford, but I am going to say they get taken down this week by Oregon. In the end I just feel like Oregon has too much speed and athletic ability for Stanford. Line on this game currently has Stanford as a -3.5 to -4 point favorite. As I said above I like Oregon straight up in this one.


Vanderbilt is a 13 point favorite over Kentucky. No one would have predicted this line at the start of the year. Vandy is have a great year. Kentucky is having an equally bad year. This week I have Kentucky as the 11th ranked team in the SEC. Their win over Ole Miss caused the two teams to switch spots. Ole Miss has a firm hold of last in the SEC.

Georgia is a 13 point favorite over Auburn. Georgia rolls into this game with a 7 game winning streak. During that time they are 6 and 1 against the spread. I think Georgia continues their track to the SEC Championship game with a convincing win over Auburn.

In my opinion the LSU/BAMA game lived up to the hype. It was not a flashy game with each team scoring 30-40 points. It was exactly the game that statistics predicted. I am not going to get into the whether or not we should have a rematch argument or not yet. We need to let the season play out then decide that.

Thanks for reading. Please continue to email or message me comments.

Wally

Friday, November 4, 2011

LSU/BAMA

If you are reading this post then you are well aware of what is going on this weekend in Tuscaloosa. The ESPN hype machine is out in full on this game. ESPN is such a powerful media source that once they start on a subject, topic, game, etc. there is no stopping it. I can only speak for what has happened in my life time, so games that happened in the 60s and 70s are really irrelevant to me. With that being said the interest surrounding this game is larger than any regular season football game I have ever seen. Much of the credit for that should be given to ESPN.

Before I go into anything else let me say I have major respect for these two football programs. Nick Saban in my opinion is the best coach in college football. I have always thought Les Miles was not all there, but the man never loses. Whatever he does works and that deserves my respect. The goal for these two programs every year is to win a national championship. A lot of places say that is a goal for them but at these two universities anything less is a failure. They are the absolute best there is right now, and collectively there may be more talent on the field Saturday than there ever has been in a college football game.

When I look at a college football player one of the first questions I ask is if the guy can play in the NFL. If so what kind of contributor do I believe he can be in the NFL. The NFL picks the best of the best and if you are a potential NFL player you have the skills, size, strength, intelligence, etc. to just dominate at the college level. The two teams that will take the field Saturday are loaded with future NFL players. There are NFL players on each offensive line, at receiver, at running back, and even at quarterback. However, the real talent is on defense. Both of these teams have at least 2 players at every level that will play in the NFL. What I mean by every level is defensive line, linebackers, and secondary. I will never say a college football team can beat a NFL team because they can't, but these two defenses could compete against a below average pro offense.

Stats don't lie this time of year. Heading into November your team is what the stats say you are. By this point in the season every team has played enough good and/or bad opponents for the stats to begin to level out. On paper these two teams are as good as there is. Each of these teams are in the top 5 of all major defensive categories. Just getting a first down against these two defenses is hard. The defenses for these teams are so unbelievable that the offenses get completely overlooked. LSU and Bama have very good offenses. Bama currently ranks 11th in scoring and LSU is 14th. Both offenses are very balanced and they have playmakers at Wide Receiver, TE, and especially Running Back.

How does one predict a winner for this game? That is the million dollar question this week because these two teams are pretty much flawless up to this point in the year. Vegas has the line for this game at 4.5 to 5. The points are being given to BAMA mainly because they are playing at home. The keys for me like in all games are field position and turnovers. I see this being a game where each team scores between 13 and 21 points. At the end of the day whichever teams super star playmaker makes the big play wins the game. I think LSU has a couple of more guys that produce those big plays and win this game 20-17.

It is hard to believe it has already been a year, but this weekend is mine and Stephanies 1 year anniversary. We will be in New Orleans Sat and Sun. In my opinion one of the best places to watch this game besides at the game will be in the French Quarter. Only problem to that is if LSU loses you better hide because there will be some crazy LSU fans roaming. Either way I hope all of you have a good weekend and thank you Stephanie for a great year. Enjoy the game and thank you for reading.

Wally