Week 12 Analysis/Week 13 Preview

Where did the football season go?? This week is the final regular season week of the year for most teams. I can't say this was the best season I can remember, but there were some great moments, games, and upsets. The top 3 teams in the SEC are unbelievably talented. They have run through everyone except each other. The final regular season week of the year has LSU in yet another huge game. Scheduling has not been on the side of the Tigers this year, but when you have a great football team you can overcome a little bad scheduling. This is the first of the big games for LSU that is actually at home where everyone knows LSU definitely has a home field advantage.

The road to the National Championship is officially wide open with Oklahoma State losing Friday. OK State lost to an Iowa State team that was a 26.5 point underdog. Oklahoma did almost the same thing when they lost to Texas Tech on October 22nd. Texas Tech was a 29 point underdog in that game. I really don't see how a team with everything on the line loses to a significant underdog. I can't contribute the OK State loss to them looking ahead because they have a bye this week. If their game against Oklahoma was this weekend I could maybe understand the let down. OK State can officially kiss their chance at a National Championship good bye. If LSU and Bama both win out I think we will get a rematch in the National Championship.

Not sure where to start with USM. Yes they played on a short week which is always difficult, but they were playing against a football team that is not very good. USM was a 24 point favorite. I will say the same thing I said about Ok State and Oklahoma. How does a team with so much on the line come out flat and lose to a significantly inferior opponent? I have no answer to that question, so I will move forward to this week. USM had a chance at an unbelievable season, but all is not lost. A Memphis team that is probably one of the worst 3 or 4 teams in the nation comes to Hattiesburg this Saturday as a 35-36 point underdog. Everything is on the line Saturday for USM. A win sets USM up for a matchup against Houston in the C-USA Championship. There is just no way a team that has a chance to play in the conference championship does not get up for the final regular season home game. USM wins this game, but I don't see it getting anywhere close to the 35 point spread.

Everyone reading this is well aware that this is the week when MSU and Ole Miss battle for the Golden Egg. The Egg Bowl this year will represent the 108th meeting between Ole Miss and MS State. Ole Miss leads the series 60-41-6. Currently MS State is in control of this series with back to back wins. Ms State could win 3 in a row for the first time in my life time if they can get a win Saturday (Ole Miss has won 3+ games in a row 3 times in my life). MSU holds the longest win streak. MSU won 13 straight from 1911-1925. This was way before my time so I really could care less about that stat, but it is something cool to know. If you know me well you know I respect sporting events that took place before I was alive, but I really don't care about them. Who won the National Championship in 1962 is completely irrelevant to me for a couple of reasons. First - I was not even alive Second- 3 teams claimed the title that year. You really don't have a champion if 3 teams are claiming they are the champ. FYI - I picked 1962 because that is when Ole Miss won their most recent "National Championship".

On to what everyone really cares about.. the 2011 edition of the Egg Bowl. I will lead with Ole Miss. A lot of talk this week was about LSU downing the ball 4 straight times on the 1 yard line with 5+/- minutes left in the game. I feel like Les Miles was doing this out of respect, but this is the ultimate slap in the face for a coaching staff and football team. Ole Miss will be going to Starkville without their most valuable 2 weapons on offense (Mackey and Scott). With them the Ole Miss offense was pretty bad, but without them they are awful. Ole Miss will have a very tough time sustaining a drive in this game. The Rebels may get a few big plays out of Moncrief or Brassell, but they just don't have the offense to drive the length of the field with a 10+ play drive.

Here is what is going to happen in this game. The Ole Miss offense will not be able to get anything going against a MSU defense that is just better. I am not saying MS State has a great defense, but this is the worst Ole Miss offense I have ever seen. The Ole Miss defense which lacks depth at every position especially up front will start the game off strong. The lack of offense from the Rebels will cause the defense to wear down once the initial emotions of the rivalry game fade off. Once the Ole Miss defense wears down MSU will just start pounding them with the running game. If Vick Ballard gets 20+ touches this game State easily wins. If he had gotten 20+ touches every game this year MS State would have 2 more victories. Simply put if Dan Mullen does not try to out coach himself with crazy play calls MSU wins this game. If MSU scores 10+ points they probably leave with a win and a trip to a bowl game. My bold prediction in this game is that MSU covers.

Blog is long this week so I am only going to have one additional comment.

The Arkansas/LSU game is one that intrigues me because it is not very often that you have a top 5 matchup where the spread is over 10 points(currently 12-13). Vegas clearly respects LSU. My key question in this game is can Arkansas protect Tyler Wilson?? I am not sure that is possible against this LSU defense, but if they are able to give him time to throw he could make some stuff happen. This will be the best group of skill players the LSU defense has faced all year. The talent of the skill players is really irrelevant though if the line can't protect the quarterback. If Tyler Wilson stays off the ground this game could be close.. If LSU starts to knock him around the Bayou Bengals will have this sealed up heading in the 4th quarter. A hidden fact in this game is that Arkansas is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home(loss at Bama and 2 close wins at Vandy and Ole Miss). I think LSU wins this game by 3 touchdowns.. bet on it.

I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving Holiday!! Thank you for reading!