Lineman TD

Lineman TD

Monday, November 14, 2011

Week 11 Analysis/Week 12 Preview

Two more high ranked teams fell this weekend. Earlier in the day TCU knocked off Boise State and later in the day Oregon beat Stanford. Everyone may say Boise State had the curse of the kicker again, but if you look at the stats from this game you have to give credit to TCU. They absolutely torched the Boise State defense through the air. All that aside an incredible streak came to an end with this loss. Boise State had not lost a home game in a decade (65 games). A stat almost as impressive as that is that Boise State has lost 4 games dating back to their 2007 bowl game loss all by 3 or less points. Every person you ask about Boise State will have a different opinion. My opinion on Boise State is that they have a football program that all but 5 or 6 other programs in the country wish they had. Could Boise State win the SEC? Probably not, but that really is an irrelevant question because they will never have a chance.

Southern Miss fans do not have a single finger nail after watching the ending to their game against UCF. Stats on this game show that USM completely dominated every aspect of the game except the scoreboard. Credit the UCF defense for consistently holding USM to field goals. USM found a way to win the game and as I always say a win is a win. USM has clinched at least a share of the CUSA East. If they win one of their next two games against drastically inferior opponents they will be given an opportunity to play Houston in the championship game. USM plays on a short week against UAB Thursday night. This game is being televised by CBS Sports Network at 7. USM is currently a 23 point favorite in this game. I look for USM to easily win this game, but 23 points may be too many on a short week. USM entered their last game with a 7 game winning streak against the spread.

Not only have the wheels come off the wagon in Oxford, but the axle has broken too. I don't know which loss is worse for the Rebels.. The 23 point loss to Vandy, the 17 point loss to Kentucky, or the 20 point loss to La Tech. You ask an Ole Miss fan which of those they would rather have and they would really have to think about an answer. The thought of having all three of those in 1 season honestly never crossed my mind as something that could happen. With 2 games left what does the Ole Miss football team do? They obviously have no shot this weekend against LSU who opened as a 30.5 point favorite. As bad as it may sound, but any line under 30 against LSU could be a good bet. The line currently sits a 29.5. If you are an Ole Miss fan just sell your ticket to someone from LSU and sit in the Grove during this one.

Arkansas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between them and Mississippi State. Mississippi State has never won at War Memorial Stadium. Arkansas is currently a 13 point favorite. This will be the 5th top 15 team the Bulldogs play this year with a loss to the prior 4. All things on paper point toward a Bulldog loss. However, this is college football and you are dealing with 18-22 year olds. The Arkansas team is absolutely looking forward to their game next Friday against LSU. If they win the game against LSU they could represent the west in Atlanta and probably the SEC in the National Championship. I can't sit here and predict MS State will win this game because Arkansas is a far superior football team than MSU. However, if MSU can get some early breaks this game could be close in the end just like the match up last year in Starkville. That game went back in forth and could not even be settled without overtime.

Several Other Thoughts:

The Oklahoma State offense is one of the best I can remember watching, but I think they slip against Oklahoma next week leaving the door wide open for a 1 loss team to slip into the National Championship

TCU currently is a 33 point favorite over Colorado State. This is an interesting line because I think TCU may have a let down after their win against Boise State. I am absolutely not picking an upset in this game, but I think the underdog would be a good bet getting 33 in this game.

Vanderbilt heads to Knoxville this weekend for a game against Tennessee. If Vandy wins they become bowl eligible and keep UT out of the post season. Before the year that is something I would have never predicted, but it is a testament as to how well Vandy has played this year. Vandy is a 1.5 point favorite. This would be a huge win for Vanderbilt football.

The champion of the SEC East will be decided this weekend when Georgia takes down Kentucky at home. The hardest two games were the first two of the year for Georgia. The 8 game win streak they currently have is credited as much to their schedule as their play. This team won't really be tested again until the SEC Championship game.

The Heisman race at this point in the year is as wide open as I have ever seen it. Andrew Luck was a clear front runner until their loss to Oregon. I would still classify him as the leader, but if Brandon Weeden from OK State continues to rip defenses apart he may win it. Trent Richardson and Case Keenum also have strong arguments. No matter who is the leader right now the last few weeks of the season are going to decide the winner. Someone needs to step up and have their Heisman moment.

Shifting directions a little toward the NBA because the situation they are in right now deserves to be talked about. I am probably one of the few people you will hear that is a fan of the NBA. I am really not sure if I just like the NBA because I like all sports, but this professional organization provides a quality product especially in the playoffs. It is a shame they are in the situation they currently are in because there will be a lot of people hurt financially if they do not play a game. The players and owners are the least of my worries. When I talk about people being hurt financially I am talking about the taxi drivers, the bars/restaurants around the arenas, the hotels, the merchant vendors, the security companies, the concession vendors, the employees of the organizations, etc., etc. These are the people who really hurt during a lockout. A full season lockout will have an economic impact in the billions.

This won't be my only blog post this week. I will be posting a blog on Friday. As always thanks for reading and please continue to send your thoughts and comments.

Wally

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