Week 9 Mississippi College Football Preview

I will first apologize for my lack of blog production this month, but work takes priority over writing this blog.  I write this just for fun.  October has been a very busy month for me.  I spend a lot of time at the computer when I am working and honestly do not feel like spending more time when I am finished with work every day.  Writing these blogs is a lot opinion, but I try to be as credible as possible with my facts.  That takes time.  I hope you get something out of this week and thank you for taking the time to read.  

Southern Mississippi is absolutely terrible this year.  I was completely wrong in all my comments about their coaching hire and their team this year.  Goal for this team now is to win a game or two.  USM AD needs to admit his mistake like me and clean house.  Go young with a coaching hire.

As if the record wasn't bad enough the story on the street for USM is that the athletic department is in a financial crisis and Anthony Alfords mom is getting arrested in the stands.  SMH! 

I will stop with USM now because any statistic I give you will show you just how bad they really are.  The most import stat is 0 wins. 

The path that Ole Miss is on is at the very least a year ahead of what I thought.  Hugh Freeze is absolutely the person that deserves credit for that with Bo Wallace right behind him.  The Ole Miss offense so far this year is averaging 30 points a game.  They averaged 13.7 last year.  I figured Ole Miss would improve some on offense this year based on the tract record of Hugh Freeze and his offenses, but I would have never guessed it to be that significant.

A bowl game is not unrealistic for Ole Miss.  Before the year I basically said there is no way that could happen.  Ole Miss will have a shot at a win in all five of their remaining games.  They should be an underdog in all, but the spreads will be low.  I said at the beginning of the year that a bowl game by Hugh Freeze and his team deserves him to be in contention for coach of the year.

On to the matchup this week for Ole Miss.  The Rebels go to Little Rock to play Arkansas in an early game.  The early line on this was basically just the home field advantage which was 4.5 points.  This line is still basically an even matchup with Arkansas getting a few points because of the home game.  The current line is 5.  The O/U is really intriguing in this game at 64.  If both teams get it going like they can on offense that could be demolished.

After a bad start to the season by Arkansas the Razorbacks have steadied the ship some with a couple of wins against the worst two teams in the SEC.  The defensive unit for Arkansas ranks 93rd in the nation.  They really are probably worse than that, but two games against Kentucky and Auburn helped them statistically. 

Ole Miss will move the ball up and down the field against Arkansas.  The key to the game for the Rebels is scoring touchdowns not field goals.  I give Ole Miss the edge in this game.  I think Ole Miss is better than Arkansas on offense and defense.  I think Ole Miss goes to Little Rock and takes this win.  1 more win to get bowl eligible.    

Mississippi State has won their first 7.  I thought when their schedule came out in the spring that there was a real possibility of this happening.  At times the Bulldogs have looked very suspect against some inferior opponents, but at times they have shown flashes of greatness.  Every unit on this team has played great at times, but every unit has made mistakes.  No matter who they played or how they played MSU has 7 wins and 0 loses.  That is the only stat that matters at this point.

Vegas brought the opening line out on this game at 24.  This really caught me off guard.  I was thinking Sunday before the line was introduced that it would be 10-17 points.  This is a true testimate to the respect that the oddsmakers have for Nick Saban and this Alabama team.  I am a firm believer that Las Vegas really knows what they are doing when it comes to picking spreads so this scares me.

With all that being said I don't believe the MSU coaching staff and team feel like they are 24 points inferior to Alabama.  The first thing that comes to my mind when I think about what I learned in my life about sports is underdogs.  As the week goes on I am hearing less and less talk from MSU coaches and players.  I think that is a good sign that they are getting their heads right for a war Saturday night at Bryant Denny.  

Someone posed a question to me today that really got me thinking.  Who has Alabama played?  Everyone is saying MSU has played no one, but really neither has Bama.  The ultimate comparison is Tennessee.  Both teams have played Tennessee in consecutive games.  If MSU had kept going in the second half like they did in the first their score would have been comparable to the Bama score.  I know I am saying a lot of ifs, but that really is what you are depending on when you are going on the road to play the undeniable number 1 team in country.

A few keys I have in this game... MSU needs to be flawless on special teams.  Up to this point they have been anything but that.  The punting game has been stellar, but all other units have been below average at best.  The special teams for MSU will have to play a perfect football game.

MSU will have to find some way to get the running game going against a Bama defense that allows no one to do that.  Alabama is number 1 in the nation against the run allowing only 58.7 yards per game.  It may take Tyler Russell throwing the ball some, but at some point in the game MSU is going to have to run the ball if they have a chance to win.  Running the ball builds time of possession and time of possession will be a major indicator in the outcome of the game.

My last key in this game is the X-factor.  Will something go right for the Bulldogs early?  Will someone make a game changing play?  Will someone have a career changing game?  I am a realist and I fully understand the challenge MSU is up against this week.  This would be an upset for the ages.  One thing MSU absolutely has going for them this week is that every single person in the country is pulling for them except Alabama fans!