Week Four Mississippi College Football Preview

Things are not looking very good in Hattiesburg through two games.  This team possibly could be the first team in almost 2 decades to not make it to a bowl game if things continue the way they are.  One thing that has been constant basically over my lifetime is USM having winning seasons. 

The East Carolina game was won in almost every statistical category by USM except the one that matters and the one that leads to the one that matters.  USM lost on the scoreboard and in the turnover game.  The three turnovers came on the first three drives of the second half.  All three turnovers led to points by ECU and a win by ECU.  The USM defense really played pretty good only allowing 228 total yards to ECU. 

It looks like USM is struggling to run the ball (averaged 2.1 yards a carry against ECU).  They are having to put a lot more pressure on a freshman quarterback than they should because of the inability to run.  A true freshman quarterback can not win in any league without some help.  The experienced offensive line for USM needs to stop being soft.  If I were Ellis Johnson this week the offensive line would be hearing a lot of man to man talk.   

I think there is still time to steady the ship in Hattiesburg, but the time is NOW.  USM goes on the road this week to Western Kentucky as a 4.5 point underdog.  WKU is coming off a double overtime win against Kentucky.  USM has more talent that Western Kentucky, but they have problems in areas that are hard to overcome.  I hope I am completely wrong in this prediction, but I see USM losing by 2 touchdowns this weekend.  WKU -4.5 may be my pick of the week.  If USM gets rolled up by WKU this weekend then the crowds in Hattiesburg will be very slim the rest of the year.   

I will start with the bad with Ole Miss this week and lead into the positives.  People at this game had to have a sore neck Sunday from watching Texas go up and down the field so fast.  Texas basically did anything they wanted to do on offense in their massacre of the Ole Miss defense.  I thought heading into the season that the Ole Miss defense was going to be a really weak spot.  Their first true test exposed them, to say the least.  When I say Texas did whatever they wanted on offense I mean it.  They ran the ball for 350 yard and passed for 326.  One of those figures would have an offense saying they had a good game, but both have an offense saying we had a great game.

On to the bright spots for the Rebels.  The offense looked good again.  If you had told me before the game Ole Miss would score 31 points I would have said they have a legitimate shot of winning the game.  399 yards of total offense against a Texas defense that gives up yards is not great, but 31 points against a Texas defense that doesn't give up points is pretty good.  The Ole Miss offense will keep this football team in a lot of games this year.  They may even steal a win somewhere down the line for this team.  No matter what the outcome is in SEC play having a team score and compete is a lot better than the product Houston Nutt was providing last year.

Ole Miss has one more cupcake game playing on the road at Tulane Saturday.  After that the schedule is brutal, but that is for next week.  The game this week has numerous favorable matchups for Ole Miss.  The main favorable matchup is the Tulane defense vs the Ole Miss offense.  They are not very good on defense.  I give the Rebels a huge advantage in this matchup.  If the Ole Miss offense continues to move forward they could hang 50 on Tulane.

The line for the game this weekend currently sits at -17.5 (started at -15).  I really liked this line under 17.  I still like Ole Miss at the current spread because I think 42-21 is the final in this game.  3-1 to start the season is right where I expected the Rebels to be.  First step to getting a program heading in the correct direction is to win the games you are supposed to win.  Hugh Freeze is doing that so far.

The Ole Miss topic was ended by saying "win the games you are supposed to win."  To Dan Mullen's credit he has done an excellent job of this since he has been in Starkville.  The Bulldogs got a scare against Troy this weekend.  I really didn't expect it to be any different.  Troy has a good football team and this was the biggest game ever at Troy.  A win is a win, and I honestly don't think much into this game.  The two spots that looked below average are the wide receivers and the defense.  I really have very little doubt in these 2 units going forward.  This may have been the wake up call they needed.

Heading into the season I was worried about the offensive line for MSU.  I knew they had some guys returning and had younger guys ready to step up, but I had doubt.  This unit through 3 games has proved to be pretty solid.  The competition will get much stiffer, but the success in these early games will build their confidence.  Confidence in yourself and your teammates is critical when you get into the meat of the schedule.  

South Alabama comes to Starkville this weekend as a large underdog.  The line for this game is currently -34.  I like South Alabama against the spread because of what Dan Mullen does in these games.  If you have a maroon jersey on Saturday you will probably play a lot of plays.  Dan is not looking to embarrass smaller teams.  In these games his main goal is for the first group to play solid then to get as many people playing time as possible.  The younger guys playing late will give up plays, but the game experience they are getting is invaluable heading into the future.  MSU will score around 50 in this game, but I think USA gets a couple of tds and a field goal.  49-17 is my score prediction.

MSU sits right where I expected them to be through three games and it is a good spot.  After this week the Bulldogs will be 4-0 heading into a bye week.  Bye weeks are really tricky because they can hurt a team just as much as they can help.  This bye week is not going to hurt this team because they really have not played very well up to this point.  The coaches will have several game films to evaluate with the players.  The bye week will be used to clean up mistakes.  Not wanting to look too far into the future, but this could be a special year in Starkville.