Southern Mississippi
Last week USM did not even play, but more doubt came into my mind about them with Nebraska losing to UCLA. Nebraska was a 4 point favorite at UCLA. The game between these two teams had very little defense. You will not consistently beat good football teams if you average giving up 7-8 yards a play. Basically my point is that Nebraska looked really good against USM and not so good against UCLA so I have to guess they fall somewhere in the middle. They are in my opinion probably about the 30th best team in the country.
The question that arises this week about USM is how well did they utilize their early season open date. USM has East Carolina at home this week in a 2:30 game that will be televised on CBS Sports Network (USM seems to play on this channel a lot). The spread for this game is USM -8.
Anthony Alford has been named the starting quarterback for USM heading into this matchup. Ellis Johnson said this last week after naming Alford the quarterback..
We looked at the tape and practice and so forth, the thing that gives us the best chance to move the sticks and to stay ahead of the down and distance right now and Anthony (Alford) is going to get the lead reps," Johnson announced. "I don't want him looking over his shoulder, second-guessing himself every other play, but he has got to play well, or we are going right to the next guy. Chris (Campbell) is getting the second-most number of reps right now and Ricky (Lloyd) is still getting some reps. We can't keep it on an even split anymore. We are into the season. The guy has got to get the job and he has to do the job. If he doesn't do the job, it is going to be the next guy's job.My take on that quote is that he hopes he can believe in Alford, but he really doesn't. If you are going to make a true freshman your quarterback, then you do not make the second part of that comment. You stop and just say you have full confidence in him. Not sure how this ends up for the USM offense, but my prediction is we may have a carousel at quarterback this year in Hattiesburg. Getting Alford on the field early will pay off in the future... maybe even against MSU in 2014!
I fully expected there to be problems at quarterback this year at USM. Losing a quarterback like Austin Davis is something you don't replace over night. However, I expect all the other pieces that are in tact with this team to carry them. USM needs to get the running game going this week (Alford can help). The defense needs to step up and play more physical because what they did at Nebraska was embarrassing. It is hard to say USM will steam roll anyone with the quarterback situation, but I don't see how USM doesn't beat an ECU team that does not even match up with them talent wise.
Mississippi State
Huge win last week for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. They completely dominated Auburn at the line of scrimmage. Auburn was not starting freshmen or sophomores on the lines either. The Tigers had experience playing up front and the Bulldogs made them look like they were true freshmen. You win in the SEC at the line of scrimmage. It looks like to me that Dan Mullen and crew are building a football team/program that will compete with the big boys at the line of scrimmage.
Countless people have said this week that Auburn is down. No they really aren't down. If the Tigers had Cam Newton this year they would probably win the National Championship again, but any decent team with Cam would do that. The Tigers are not down. They have a lot of experience and a lot of highly recruited players. The Tigers have played two really good football teams to open the sesaon. An opposing team that absolutely dominates you at the line of scrimmage will make you look bad. Domination at the line combined with a really talented secondary will make any quarterback look bad. Fact is the MSU defensive coaching staff took it to Auburn. If you become 1 dimensional you will get exposed by a good defense, especially if all you can do is try to run.
Now time to knock the Bulldogs off their high horse. This exhibit being put on by the Bulldogs special teams is atrocious. The punting game is really good, but other than that everything else looks bad. It really does not make sense to me either because this team is loaded with depth and play makers that should never allow a kickoff return. A kickoff return can not happen again this year. On to the kicker... It looks like he strikes the ball really well when he kicks it, but he just can't get lined up. This will probably get corrected, and Bell will make a crucial kick at some point this season.
The Bulldogs finally got off to a start this season that will allow them to build more confidence. Something really bad would have to happen for MSU to lose to Troy or South Alabama, but ULM beating Arkansas shows anything is possible. I won't look too far into the future, but this could be a special season.
In order to try to keep the blog length down a little I won't be having anyone else write about MSU this week!
In order to try to keep the blog length down a little I won't be having anyone else write about MSU this week!
University of Mississippi
The Rebels have done what they were supposed to do starting the season. UCA and UTEP are really not a good measuring stick for a team in the SEC. Those are games that you are supposed to win/dominate. A real test comes to Oxford this week. Everyone reading this already knows but Texas comes to town Saturday in a game that kicks really late, 8:15, on ESPN. Oxford, the Grove, and Vaught-Hemingway Stadium will all be amped to the max Saturday, and the home field advantage will be in full force.
This Texas team is not the one that was ranked top 5 every season, but they are still super talented especially up front. There are only a couple of teams outside the SEC that have real play makers and Texas is one of them. Texas also brings a swagger to Oxford that the Rebels have not seen yet this year. The Rebels stepped on the field in their first two games knowing they were superior. How do the Rebels respond stepping on the field being equal at best to their opponent?
This game is loaded with matchups. The first and biggest matchup is the Ole Miss offense/passing game against the UT defense. Texas comes into this game with the 8th ranked scoring defense. Ole Miss comes into this game ranked 10th in the NCAA in yards per game. Texas does appear to give up yards against their first two opponents, but they do not give up many points. Texas has NFL talent all over the field. Defensive ends Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor both could be first round draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft. The secondary is not bad either. Everyone in Mississippi knows the name Manny Diaz because of his short stint at MSU. Diaz is a great defensive coach. Bo Wallace is proving to be better and better each week and is probably the saving grace for the Rebels this year. The question is how does Wallace and the offensive line show in their first real test of 2012? Another question is what receiver will step up this week? Donte Moncrief will be double covered the entire game making it hard for him to produce unless he just makes a freak play. He is capable of freak plays so never rule him out.
Another interesting matchup in this game is the Rebels defensive front against the Texas run game. UTEP did not have their starting running back in their match up with Ole Miss last week, but the Rebels have been tough up front in their first two games. Texas comes in with a stable of running backs and an offensive line that is far superior to the Rebels first two opponents in talent and depth.
The opening spread for this game was -13.5. The current spread is down to -10.5. I have said many times this year and in the past that anything can happen in a game, but when the spread is over 10 points an unbiased person can not pick the underdog to win the game. It does happen and it could happen this weekend, but my pick is Texas to win by exactly 10 points.
I wrote my post before the Trae Elston suspension came down. I won't go into that because Les will tell you pretty much everything you need to know about it in his post but here is a link to the video of the hit...
Les Penn is supplying us with the opinion of a Rebel fan this week..... Big thanks to Les for taking the time to do this and for everyone who continues to read this every week.
Let's go ahead and get this out of
the way, because, let’s face it: there
is no reason to dwell on things we cannot change.
Ole Miss DB Trae Elston made a
textbook, highlight film, money making hit against UTEP and did not receive a
flag for it. Monday evening, around 5pm, the SEC officials notified Coach
Freeze that Trae Elston would have to serve a 1 game suspension for a hit that
he wasn't even flagged for! Agree or disagree, there is nothing anyone can
do about it. Well, actually, there is one man who could do something about
it. His name is SEC Commissioner Mike
Slive, and you can call him at 205-458-3000 if you think you can change his
mind. Good luck with that!
Let’s take a quick look back to last
week’s game against UTEP. Bo Wallace, or
“Sunshine” (Remember the Titans), was good! He has an arm and is not afraid to
take a little hit here and there! SS/DB
#25 Cody Prewitt is fun to watch. He plays the position like the SEC obviously
hates it to be played…HARD! He is on
punt return, kickoff team, plays DB, plays SS AND brings the funk with him—hard
nose guy! Jeff Scott is a game changer but, man, he is small; one has to wonder
if he can hold up in the SEC! The 3rd qtr against UTEP was not what I would
have liked to see. The Rebels had chances to put the game away and could not get
points on the board. Decisions, such as kicking a 57 yard field goal, must be thrown
out of our playbook, NOW! Sure he can
make a 57 yard kick in pre-game (hell, a lot of people could hit homeruns in BP),
but that’s a little different than doing so in a game! With that being said, Bryson Rose's 57 yard
fg attempt landed at about the 20 yard line.
And in return, UTEP turns it in 3 points later. It was a fun game to
attend, which I haven’t been able to say much during the past two years….even
after attending a “should win” game!
Now, let’s talk about this week’s
game. The buildup is there, along with
the team’s confidence, but can the
Rebels play with Texas? For the first time ever, the University of Texas comes
to Oxford. 100,000 people are expected
to invade Oxford this weekend! Although this game doesn't have the importance
of the 2003 LSU game (western division title game Eli's senior year), it is
being hyped up as the biggest game since then!
Texas enters this game #14 in the
nation, and Ole miss is unranked and in the very beginning of, what we hope,
can be a rebuilding process! I've said for the last few years that Mack Brown
needs to be done at Texas! Texas doesn't have to recruit—players WANT to come
there. Each year, while teams are out recruiting, Texas's class is already
filled up and in the top 10 in the nation. I truly believe Texas has
underachieved more than any program has in the last few years!
Monday morning, the Vegas line for
this week’s game was Ole Miss +13.5 and, very quickly, went to Ole Miss +10.5.
Many people, like me, see Ole Miss keeping this game close. Has Ole Miss played
anyone yet? One can argue, maybe, that the
answer to that question all depends on how good Oklahoma is going to end up
being…in order to really know just how good UTEP was. On the other hand… has
Texas played anyone, either? No, not
really. This will be the first test for
both teams. Ole Miss Offense vs. Texas Defense seems to be the #1 story for
this matchup! I'm sure Manny Diaz is confident!
In order for Ole Miss to have a
chance, multiple things have to happen: 1. Bo Wallace and his receivers have to be on the same
page, no mistakes; 2. The offensive line must hold off blocks long enough for
us to run the ball. If we can't run, I
don't like Ole Miss's chances; 3. Defensive backs cannot get beat deep. If they do, this will be a 42-17 Texas
win. What Ole Miss will
have going for them is the atmosphere & home crowd— it's going to be packed
and it’s going to be loud! Ole Miss is playing fast, and with a lot of
confidence right now, and the Ole Miss faithful will play a huge role in the
outcome of this game! If Texas takes an early 10 or 14 point lead, it will be
interesting to see how Ole Miss responds. Will they lay down like years past
with Houston Nutt or have the players all truly bought in to Coach Freeze, and
will they continue to fight on no matter the score? Texas has a big advantage
when you get to talking about depth, but If Ole Miss can control the game &
tempo, then depth shouldn't play as big of a role as it could!
My prediction, this isn't a great
Texas team, and this isn't a top tier SEC team playing the Rebels, the Rebels
can win this one! Look for Ole Miss to feed off the sold out crowd and get
ahead early! If Ole Miss can score first and keep the crowd as a factor, look
for the Rebels to pull off the upset of #14 Texas!
Final: Ole Miss 26 - 24 Texas
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