Week Three Mississippi College Football Preview

Southern Mississippi

Last week USM did not even play, but more doubt came into my mind about them with Nebraska losing to UCLA.  Nebraska was a 4 point favorite at UCLA.  The game between these two teams had very little defense.  You will not consistently beat good football teams if you average giving up 7-8 yards a play.  Basically my point is that Nebraska looked really good against USM and not so good against UCLA so I have to guess they fall somewhere in the middle.  They are in my opinion probably about the 30th best team in the country.

 

The question that arises this week about USM is how well did they utilize their early season open date.  USM has East Carolina at home this week in a 2:30 game that will be televised on CBS Sports Network (USM seems to play on this channel a lot).  The spread for this game is USM -8.  

 

Anthony Alford has been named the starting quarterback for USM heading into this matchup.  Ellis Johnson said this last week after naming Alford the quarterback..    

We looked at the tape and practice and so forth, the thing that gives us the best chance to move the sticks and to stay ahead of the down and distance right now and Anthony (Alford) is going to get the lead reps," Johnson announced. "I don't want him looking over his shoulder, second-guessing himself every other play, but he has got to play well, or we are going right to the next guy. Chris (Campbell) is getting the second-most number of reps right now and Ricky (Lloyd) is still getting some reps. We can't keep it on an even split anymore. We are into the season. The guy has got to get the job and he has to do the job. If he doesn't do the job, it is going to be the next guy's job.
 

My take on that quote is that he hopes he can believe in Alford, but he really doesn't.  If you are going to make a true freshman your quarterback, then you do not make the second part of that comment.  You stop and just say you have full confidence in him.  Not sure how this ends up for the USM offense, but my prediction is we may have a carousel at quarterback this year in Hattiesburg.  Getting Alford on the field early will pay off in the future... maybe even against MSU in 2014!

I fully expected there to be problems at quarterback this year at USM.  Losing a quarterback like Austin Davis is something you don't replace over night.  However, I expect all the other pieces that are in tact with this team to carry them.  USM needs to get the running game going this week (Alford can help).  The defense needs to step up and play more physical because what they did at Nebraska was embarrassing.  It is hard to say USM will steam roll anyone with the quarterback situation, but I don't see how USM doesn't beat an ECU team that does not even match up with them talent wise.

Mississippi State



Huge win last week for the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  They completely dominated Auburn at the line of scrimmage.  Auburn was not starting freshmen or sophomores on the lines either.  The Tigers had experience playing up front and the Bulldogs made them look like they were true freshmen.  You win in the SEC at the line of scrimmage.  It looks like to me that Dan Mullen and crew are building a football team/program that will compete with the big boys at the line of scrimmage. 

 

Countless people have said this week that Auburn is down.  No they really aren't down.  If the Tigers had Cam Newton this year they would probably win the National Championship again, but any decent team with Cam would do that.  The Tigers are not down.  They have a lot of experience and a lot of highly recruited players.  The Tigers have played two really good football teams to open the sesaon.  An opposing team that absolutely dominates you at the line of scrimmage will make you look bad.  Domination at the line combined with a really talented secondary will make any quarterback look bad.  Fact is the MSU defensive coaching staff took it to Auburn.  If you become 1 dimensional you will get exposed by a good defense, especially if all you can do is try to run.

 

Now time to knock the Bulldogs off their high horse.  This exhibit being put on by the Bulldogs special teams is atrocious.  The punting game is really good, but other than that everything else looks bad.  It really does not make sense to me either because this team is loaded with depth and play makers that should never allow a kickoff return.  A kickoff return can not happen again this year.  On to the kicker...  It looks like he strikes the ball really well when he kicks it, but he just can't get lined up.  This will probably get corrected, and Bell will make a crucial kick at some point this season. 

 

The Bulldogs finally got off to a start this season that will allow them to build more confidence.  Something really bad would have to happen for MSU to lose to Troy or South Alabama, but ULM beating Arkansas shows anything is possible.  I won't look too far into the future, but this could be a special season.

In order to try to keep the blog length down a little I won't be having anyone else write about MSU this week!

 

     University of Mississippi

The Rebels have done what they were supposed to do starting the season.  UCA and UTEP are really not a good measuring stick for a team in the SEC.  Those are games that you are supposed to win/dominate.  A real test comes to Oxford this week.  Everyone reading this already knows but Texas comes to town Saturday in a game that kicks really late, 8:15, on ESPN.  Oxford, the Grove, and Vaught-Hemingway Stadium will all be amped to the max Saturday, and the home field advantage will be in full force. 

 

This Texas team is not the one that was ranked top 5 every season, but they are still super talented especially up front.  There are only a couple of teams outside the SEC that have real play makers and Texas is one of them.  Texas also brings a swagger to Oxford that the Rebels have not seen yet this year.  The Rebels stepped on the field in their first two games knowing they were superior.  How do the Rebels respond stepping on the field being equal at best to their opponent?

 

This game is loaded with matchups.  The first and biggest matchup is the Ole Miss offense/passing game against the UT defense.  Texas comes into this game with the 8th ranked scoring defense.  Ole Miss comes into this game ranked 10th in the NCAA in yards per game.  Texas does appear to give up yards against their first two opponents, but they do not give up many points. Texas has NFL talent all over the field.  Defensive ends Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor both could be first round draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft.  The secondary is not bad either.  Everyone in Mississippi knows the name Manny Diaz because of his short stint at MSU.  Diaz is a great defensive coach.   Bo Wallace is proving to be better and better each week and is probably the saving grace for the Rebels this year.  The question is how does Wallace and the offensive line show in their first real test of 2012?  Another question is what receiver will step up this week?  Donte Moncrief will be double covered the entire game making it hard for him to produce unless he just makes a freak play.  He is capable of freak plays so never rule him out.    

 

Another interesting matchup in this game is the Rebels defensive front against the Texas run game.  UTEP did not have their starting running back in their match up with Ole Miss last week, but the Rebels have been tough up front in their first two games.  Texas comes in with a stable of running backs and an offensive line that is far superior to the Rebels first two opponents in talent and depth. 

 

The opening spread for this game was -13.5.  The current spread is down to -10.5.  I have said many times this year and in the past that anything can happen in a game, but when the spread is over 10 points an unbiased person can not pick the underdog to win the game.  It does happen and it could happen this weekend, but my pick is Texas to win by exactly 10 points. 

 

I wrote my post before the Trae Elston suspension came down.  I won't go into that because Les will tell you pretty much everything you need to know about it in his post but here is a link to the video of the hit... 

 

Trae Elston Hit

 

Les Penn is supplying us with the opinion of a Rebel fan this week.....  Big thanks to Les for taking the time to do this and for everyone who continues to read this every week.

 

Let's go ahead and get this out of the way, because, let’s face it:  there is no reason to dwell on things we cannot change.

 

Ole Miss DB Trae Elston made a textbook, highlight film, money making hit against UTEP and did not receive a flag for it. Monday evening, around 5pm, the SEC officials notified Coach Freeze that Trae Elston would have to serve a 1 game suspension for a hit that he wasn't even flagged for!   Agree or disagree, there is nothing anyone can do about it.  Well, actually, there is one man who could do something about it.  His name is SEC Commissioner Mike Slive, and you can call him at 205-458-3000 if you think you can change his mind. Good luck with that!

 

Let’s take a quick look back to last week’s game against UTEP.  Bo Wallace, or “Sunshine” (Remember the Titans), was good! He has an arm and is not afraid to take a little hit here and there!  SS/DB #25 Cody Prewitt is fun to watch. He plays the position like the SEC obviously hates it to be played…HARD!  He is on punt return, kickoff team, plays DB, plays SS AND brings the funk with him—hard nose guy! Jeff Scott is a game changer but, man, he is small; one has to wonder if he can hold up in the SEC! The 3rd qtr against UTEP was not what I would have liked to see. The Rebels had chances to put the game away and could not get points on the board. Decisions, such as kicking a 57 yard field goal, must be thrown out of our playbook, NOW!  Sure he can make a 57 yard kick in pre-game (hell, a lot of people could hit homeruns in BP), but that’s a little different than doing so in a game!  With that being said, Bryson Rose's 57 yard fg attempt landed at about the 20 yard line.  And in return, UTEP turns it in 3 points later. It was a fun game to attend, which I haven’t been able to say much during the past two years….even after attending a “should win” game!

 

Now, let’s talk about this week’s game.  The buildup is there, along with the team’s confidence, but can the Rebels play with Texas? For the first time ever, the University of Texas comes to Oxford.  100,000 people are expected to invade Oxford this weekend!   Although this game doesn't have the importance of the 2003 LSU game (western division title game Eli's senior year), it is being hyped up as the biggest game since then!

 

Texas enters this game #14 in the nation, and Ole miss is unranked and in the very beginning of, what we hope, can be a rebuilding process! I've said for the last few years that Mack Brown needs to be done at Texas! Texas doesn't have to recruit—players WANT to come there. Each year, while teams are out recruiting, Texas's class is already filled up and in the top 10 in the nation. I truly believe Texas has underachieved more than any program has in the last few years!

 

Monday morning, the Vegas line for this week’s game was Ole Miss +13.5 and, very quickly, went to Ole Miss +10.5. Many people, like me, see Ole Miss keeping this game close. Has Ole Miss played anyone yet?  One can argue, maybe, that the answer to that question all depends on how good Oklahoma is going to end up being…in order to really know just how good UTEP was. On the other hand… has Texas played anyone, either?  No, not really.  This will be the first test for both teams. Ole Miss Offense vs. Texas Defense seems to be the #1 story for this matchup! I'm sure Manny Diaz is confident!

 

In order for Ole Miss to have a chance, multiple things have to happen:  1. Bo Wallace and his receivers have to be on the same page, no mistakes; 2. The offensive line must hold off blocks long enough for us to run the ball.  If we can't run, I don't like Ole Miss's chances; 3. Defensive backs cannot get beat deep.   If they do, this will be a 42-17 Texas win.  What Ole Miss will have going for them is the atmosphere & home crowd— it's going to be packed and it’s going to be loud! Ole Miss is playing fast, and with a lot of confidence right now, and the Ole Miss faithful will play a huge role in the outcome of this game! If Texas takes an early 10 or 14 point lead, it will be interesting to see how Ole Miss responds. Will they lay down like years past with Houston Nutt or have the players all truly bought in to Coach Freeze, and will they continue to fight on no matter the score? Texas has a big advantage when you get to talking about depth, but If Ole Miss can control the game & tempo, then depth shouldn't play as big of a role as it could!

 

My prediction, this isn't a great Texas team, and this isn't a top tier SEC team playing the Rebels, the Rebels can win this one! Look for Ole Miss to feed off the sold out crowd and get ahead early! If Ole Miss can score first and keep the crowd as a factor, look for the Rebels to pull off the upset of #14 Texas!

Final:  Ole Miss  26 - 24 Texas

  

 

      

Read more here: http://www.sunherald.com/2012/09/06/4170288/alford-named-starting-qb-for-east.html#storylink=cpy

 

Week 7 Analysis/Week 8 Preview

The first BCS rankings of the year came out this week. The top 3 are in line with how I would put them(LSU/Bama/Oklahoma). Once you get past the top 3 you could really draw out of a hat for the next 4 or 5 spots. At this point in the season I agree with the poll having LSU at #1. Both Bama and LSU have looked impressive, but the Tigers have just played a tougher schedule up to this point than Bama. The great thing about this is that the rankings really don't matter because Bama and LSU play each other. Everything will be solved on the field instead of by some pencil pushing sports writers.

As I said last week USM has their biggest game of the year this Saturday against SMU, 7PM on CBS Sports Network. The Golden Eagles came out as 3.5 point favorite in this game. The line currently sits at 3. I don't see this line moving much if any between now and the game. This will be USM's toughest challenge yet. SMU comes into this game at 5-1 with their only loss to Texas A&M the first game of the year. SMU can score points (33rd in nation) and keep their opponents from scoring (23rd in nation). USM is pretty good statistically on both sides of the ball too, Offense (19th) and Defense (38th). Stats are a good indicator of what kind of team you have at this point in the year because every team has played enough games to get a good average. Stats show this being a close game. I'm saying this will be one of the best games of the weekend. If you are a USM fan then GO, but if you are a football fan you should at least watch this game. See what the current best team in MS has to offer.

Things for Ole Miss have gone from bad to worse to terrible. The bad for the Rebels this week, they got hit pretty hard by injuries against Bama. Two starting defensive players were lost for the season from a unit that is already thin at many positions. The worse for the Rebels this week, is that they are pitiful on offense. The Rebels can not run or pass which is shown by them being ranked 117th nationally in total offense. The terrible for the Rebels this week, they play another really good opponent. Arkansas is not Bama, but they are a legitimate top 10 team. Line for this quickly jumped 2.5 points to 17 when it came out. The line currently sits at 16.5. This is a good bet even up to 21. Arkansas will score in the 40s, and I don't see how the Rebels can get to 20 points unless something crazy happens. The Rebels may not get to 4 wins this year. Rebels needs to start figuring out where they are going to get the 6 million+ it will take to fire the staff in Oxford

The only positive for Ole Miss fans right now is that the situation in Starkville is far from good. Every person in the stadium Saturday knew that South Carolina was going to throw the ball to Alshon Jeffery on their last TD. Banks should be covering Jeffery in that situation with help. I see negative after negative on offense when I watch MS State play. The center snaps the ball back to the quaterback in shotgun like a high school center. The ball wabbles back to the qb and half the time it is off target. This is the SEC and that is not acceptable. The center did not even have anyone lined up on him so that excuse is out. The snap should be a spiral quickly back to the qb right in his chest. Many of MSU's plays out of shotgun are timing plays and the pathetic snaps throw everything off. I can't imagine how bad the snaps will be when Bama has someone lined up in the A gap. Bad snaps lead to my next statement about the offense. Ms State had at least 8 wasted plays on offense Saturday. When I say wasted I mean plays that have a fumble/bad snap, a player running the wrong route/direction, etc. Every play is precious and you can't have 10-15% of them wasted. Good news for MSU is that they have an off week followed by games against two opponents that they SHOULD beat. Defense is playing really solid football right now, but the offense has some major problems. The Bulldogs have got to get better on offense in the off week.

A Few notes:

I currently believe USM has the best football team in MS.

Realignment has taken a weird turn.. Boise State going to the Big East?? That makes no sense at all.

The Wisconsin/Mich State game should be a good game, if there is such a thing in the Big 10 anymore. Wisconsin has a high powered offense and Mich State has a top 5 defense. Something has to give in this game. I think it is the Mich State defense.

TCU is a 41 point favorite. I like TCU as a football team/program, but New Mexico must be terrible to get a line this high. A 40+ point spread at this point in the year is typically a good underdog bet.

The World Series starts tonight on Fox. MLB has lost some of its luster in the last few years for several reasons... Extremely long seasons, public knowledge of scandals involving HGH/steroids, and the rise of football popularity to a level no one has seen before. With all that being said both college and pro baseball are providing a quality product on the field right now. Sit down for a little while during this series and watch a little baseball. You won't be disappointed. My pick is for the Rangers to win in 6 games.

Thanks for reading. Please continue to email me any comments or suggestions. I enjoy reading what other people think Wally146@aol.com

Wally

Week 6 Analysis/Week 7 Preview

First thing I want to talk about is how ridiculous top 25 polls are. Florida currently sits outside of the top 25 at around 26 or 27. Florida lost to the best two teams in the country the previous two weeks. They went from being ranked 12th to 26th after losing to the Number 1A and 1B teams in the nation. My argument isn't whether Florida should or shouldn't be ranked. My argument is that if these sports writers felt like Florida was the 12th best team in the nation two weeks ago then how does losing to Bama and LSU make them think they are now the 26th best team. Another note about the top 25 is Michigan is ranked 10th or 11th depending on which poll you look at. This is a joke. Michigan has played no body (Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and ND. I predict it right now... Michigan will have a 9-10 win season. They will then go to a bowl game and play an SEC team that will smash them.

Southern Miss is rolling. I feel like the current bye week comes at a bad time for the Golden Eagles. Bye weeks are tricky situations. When a team is playing good ball a bye week can be a step back. However, if a team is struggling with consistency and injuries a bye week can be a positive. USM does have some players injured, but every team has that this time of year. This week needs to be used to get some fundamentals fixed and some players healthy. Next week USM has a huge game against SMU. SMU is back on the map. The death penalty they received from the NCAA in the mid 80s took them 20+ years to recover from. The biggest game of the year for USM is next Saturday. If you claim to be a USM fan you should go to Hattiesburg and support your team for this game.

Saying Ole Miss has a tough game this week is an understatement. They are basically playing a NFL team in Oxford on Saturday(5PM CT ESPN2). Ole Miss has absolutely no chance in this game. The Alabama defense enters this game only giving up an average of 7 points a game and 37.7 rushing yards. Both of those stats are ranked number 1 in the nation by a long shot. Ole Miss enters the game with the 99th ranked rushing offense at 115.6 yards per game. The Rebels will not be able to get anything going on the ground making them one dimensional on offense. The Bama defense will produce 3+ turnovers and blow the Rebels out. Spread on this game currently sits at Bama -25. Take this bet, because this could be a 5 touchdown game. I don't mean any disrespect to Ole Miss by the above comments. The simple fact is that Bama is just that good.

South Caroline comes to Starkville this weekend for an early kick (11AM CT SEC Network - CBS local). Every game for the remainder of the season is important for MS State because wins become precious this time of year. The early season thoughts of a potential 8 win season are long gone. Bulldogs need to figure out some way to get 3 more wins. It does not matter who they are against. There is potential in the schedule for this to happen, but it will take MSU playing better football. Last week proved there is a quarterback controversy in Starkville. Relf or Russell? Someone that makes a lot more money than I do has to make that decision. MSU may not have won Saturday if it were not for the change at quarterback. This has been a weird year for both MSU and USC. Each of these teams had high expectations for their offenses, but the defenses for both teams has been the better unit up to this point in the season. Spread for this game opened at USC -5. It currently sits at 3 points. I like the Gamecocks in this game at -3, but I will be happy if the Bulldogs pull out a victory.

Few extra comments:

In the way too early to look at category... Bama is a 6.5 point favorite over LSU for their game Nov 5th.

Oklahoma State came out as a 5.5 point favorite over Texas. This line is currently between 7 and 8. I really liked this line at 5.5 - 7. Over 7 makes this a little tougher to say I really like. However I think this is a good bet even if the line gets up around 10. This line is under 10 simply because it is Texas.

Highest line for the weekend is Oklahoma -34 against Kansas. I enjoy looking at the highest line every weekend because typically it is a good underdog bet. This would not be a good underdog bet. Oklahoma will hang 50+ on Kansas.

As always I appreciate you reading this. Email me any thoughts, comments, or ideas because I enjoy hearing people's responses... Wally146@aol.com

Wally

Week 5 Analysis/Week 6 Preview

The thing that once again stood out this past weekend was how dominant Alabama was. The Bama defense knocked out John Brantley a week after they made Bobby Petrino pull Tyler Wilson out of the game because he feared he would get hurt. This Alabama defense has at least 8 players that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft om 2012. They have many others that will be drafted in 2013, 2014, etc.

Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.

Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.

Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.

My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.

Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.

USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.

Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.



Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.

Wally