Southern Miss 2018 Preview

In 2017, I made a commitment to really research each of these teams I am writing about instead of just throwing out stuff that I thought.  I feel like it paid off last year, and that it will again this year.  My knowledge of each team, not just MS State, during the season was a lot better.  In 2017, I picked USM 7-5 (they went 8-4), Ole Miss 6-6 (they went 6-6), and MS State 7-5 (they went 8-4).  I obviously wouldn't bring this up if I had drastically missed those, but I feel like missing 2 by 1 game and getting Ole Miss correct was pretty good picking on my part.

Here are the predictions from each from 2017.  The only thing I was really wrong about was MS State and the Egg Bowl.
Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.
Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  
Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

I, like probably anyone reading this, am super excited for another fall of football!  You literally have hundreds of ways you can read about your football teams.  Some sources are excellent, but some are absolutely pathetic.  I appreciate anyone taking the time to read this, and I really do hope you get something useful out of this.  I hope all of you are safe in your travels to and from games.  I think this will be a fun year.    With that being said here we go....

Going into the 2018 campaign USM returns as little experience as almost any team in FBS.  The Golden Eagles only return 4 starters on each side of the ball.  This team lost a ton of production from the 2017 team on the offensive side of the ball.  The offensive line is where a bulk of the returning starters on offense are and if you are looking for a positive that is certainly one.  I have always believed that it is much easier to throw a younger skill player into the fire than it is an offensive lineman.  In 2017, USM returned a lot of skill players but few linemen.  This year is the direct opposite of last year.    Prior to Griggs being kicked off the team Phil Steele had them at #108 on experience chart.  I would think the loss of Griggs puts them in the 120s.  

   

Southern Miss thought they had an abundance of quarterbacks heading into spring, but that isn’t the case anymore.  Keon Howard transferred to Tulane this summer, and Kwadra Griggs was suspended from the team during fall training camp.  It appears that Jack Abraham will get the nod on opening day against Jackson St, but that position could be another revolving door much like it was in 2017.  Along with replacing their quarterbacks they will have to replace their top rusher and their top 4 receivers from 2017.  Southern Miss won’t be going to freshmen to replace all that production, but none of the guys stepping into starting roles have really produced anything at USM.  The 2017 team was ranked 42nd in yards per game with 420 and 66th in points per game with 27.8.  This side of the ball has so many more question marks than answers heading into 2018.  I really don't see how the offensive production can be better in 2018 than it was in 2017.

The defensive side of the ball comes into the season with almost as many question marks as the offense.  A bright spot for this unit is the linebacking corps.  This group is talented.  They have a shot at being the best in Conference USA, but around them are a lot of unknowns.  The secondary could be the weakest position unit on the entire team going into 2017.  They lost pretty much everyone on the back end.  This defense has both experience and depth questions which are both obviously not ideal.  The 2017 team ranked 24th in total yards allowed at 348 per game and 55th in points per game allowed with 26.5.  Jay Hopson is a defensive coach by trade, but I don’t see how this group won’t also go backwards compared to the 2017 team.    

It felt like I just blasted USM, but with all the unknowns and all the question marks I still have a ton of faith in their head coach Jay Hopson.  I think he is a really good coach that has been a winner everywhere he has been.  I feel like he will figure out how to get the most out of his players and get USM to another bowl game. 

Predictions

In 2017, I almost predicted USM to have 8 wins, but I landed on a prediction of 7-5 which is exactly what Vegas had predicted.  They hit the over with an 8-4 regular season.  They got hammered by Florida State in their bowl.  This year Vegas has a line of 6.5 for the Golden Eagles.

Pick 6-6:  USM has one of the easiest schedules in FBS, but with so many question marks I see USM losing all the obvious games and some they probably should win.  This team benefited from some close wins last year.  Take those off and they are sitting at 6 wins.

Best Case Scenario 8-4: If Jack Abraham or Marcelo Rodriquez can emerge as a playmaker at quarterback all the chips could fall into place for this team to reach 8-4. 

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  It would take abysmal quarterback play for this to happen.

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