Mississippi State Preview/Prediction 2017

MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY

Dan Mullen is entering his 9th season as head coach at MSU.  That's really crazy to think about.  If you listened to the click bait websites like Saturday Down South or SEC Country he would be on at least his 5^th job by now.  Whether or not he was searching is irrelevant because he is still the coach at MSU, and he is a pretty dang good one.  Mullen is on pace to go down as the best coach in the history of the football program.  Bowl games, winning records, record setting players, Number 1, etc.  You name it and he has probably done it already at MSU.  It appears to me that he's really just hitting his stride as a head football coach.

Everyone knew last year would be a tough year because of the shadow Dak Prescott left when he graduated.  Dak will forever be a legend in Starkville, and it looks like he may end up being one in Dallas too. Dak leaving wasn't the only question mark.  The entire defensive coaching staff was new.  There were leadership questions all over the team.  Looking back on my prediction from last year I was obviously wearing my fan hat.  I have tried to step back and look at this team with a more unbiased opinion.  I've tried to find the positives and negatives.

Offense

Some media and fans have Nick Fitzgerald going to New York in December.  I'm not nearly that high on him because he has yet to show he can consistently throw the ball accurately.  He only completed 54% of his passes last year with a 2-1 TD/INT rate.  I watched him throw 5 picks in spring game in the first half.  Those are things from the past and a spring game is certainly nothing to base predictions on, but they have to be considered.  All that being said, this guy has unbelievable intangibles.  Big, fast, strong, rocket arm, vision in the running game, etc... This guy has the stuff you can't coach.  If Mullen can improve his passing accuracy and decision making then this guy could be everything some media are saying. 

Fitz is going to be helped big time by a stable of running backs.  The bulldogs are loaded with talent there starting with Aeris Williams.  Fitzgerald is also going to help himself in the passing game because teams are going to have to account for him running the ball on every play.  Fitz and Williams and possibly a 3^rd back in the backfield will be virtually impossible for any defense to defend.  The running game will be helped by an offensive line that will be much improved.  MS State should be able to run the bill at will against almost any team they play.

As deep as Ole Miss is at receiver MSU is equally not.  I'm worried about this group being able to both get open and to be able to catch the ball.  Someone has to emerge that can catch the ball other than Donald Gray.  This may come from a wide receiver or two or from the tight end position.  Mullen is saying he is going to expand the usage of the tight ends this year.  If he does that, those guys could fill a void left by the lack of wide receivers.  Everyone running routes will benefit from the run game that will be strong.

In 2016, MSU was 44^th in total offense and 56^th in scoring offense.  The only major weapon on offense gone is Fred Ross.  If Fitz can get some consistency in the passing game this group could be top 25 in offense.  It would take scoring 4-6 more points per game to get in top 25.  

Defense

Todd Grantham is a major upgrade from Peter Sirmon.  I have no idea how Mullen pulled this hire off, but he did and MS State fans should be happy.  The defense immediately got better with this hire.  The pathetic play from last year certainly wasn't all on Sirmon, but I think him and an entirely new staff were out coached many weeks.     

The defense is talented.  Simmons, Lewis, and McLaurin are players any coach would love to take the field with.  There is a really solid core at every level of the defense.  The other guys are the ones that will have to step up and play like they were recruited to play.  Guys likes Fletcher Adams, Montez Sweat, Gerri Green, Brandon Bryant, and Jamal Peters.. need to play up to their ability.  These guys along with many others have the skill, but none have played up to their ability yet.  

The defense looked like they didn't care on many possessions last year.  The effort was pathetic on many plays and drives.  That falls on coaching and leadership.  You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don’t bring it in college football you will get rolled.  The defense could be much improved if they just play with passion and effort this year.  

The defense was 110^th in total defense and 93^rd in scoring defense last year.  Just like with Ole Miss many of the same players return with new coaches especially at the top.  This side of the ball is one that really intrigues me and is the one that will decide which direction this season goes.

It is funny that over the years I have been watching football I would say MS State and Ole Miss perennially were better on defense than offense.  That has certainly changed over the last few years.  These teams have and will put up points older fans never would have imagined.

Special teams

Who knows about this category when it comes to kicking field goals.  All units of special teams will be really good except field goal kicking.  Talk out of Mullen and media is that there are several quality options to kick field goals, but we have heard that before.  It's anybody's guess how the field goal kicking will go.  I'm not optimistic at really any yardage... outside 40 I have little to no faith in the kicking going into the season.

Prediction

Vegas has the O/U at 5.5 but it is at -155 for over and +125 for the under.  Based on that this line should be at 6.5.  At 6.5 the odds would be close to -110.  I have really struggled with this win/loss prediction.  I have thought all numbers from 6 to 9 wins.  There are so many positives heading into the season, but I have a lot of question marks.  I think this team has the players to answer many questions, but I’m going to have to see it from them.

You will know all you need to know about this team by the end of September.  The schedule tosses them right into the fire with LSU at home then back to back road games to Georgia and Auburn.  There is a stretch in the middle where MS State should string together some wins.  By the time November gets here it is anybody’s guess.

Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

Best Case Scenario 10-2:  It would take a special season out of Fitzgerald and a defense that is top 25 to produce this outcome.  This really is a pipe dream.

Worst Case 5-7:  Another 5-7 season would be extremely disappointing for MS State fans.  It’s hard for me to see any scenario where this happens.  If would take MS State losing multiple games at the end like they did in 2016.