Southern Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Prior to writing this I knew very little about USM head coach Jay Hopson.  I have heard his name mentioned countless times over the last few years in a positive light, but knew nothing beyond that.  I decided to go do a little research.  Hopson is a Mississippian..  Born in Mississippi, played defensive back at Ole Miss, has coached most of his career in the state of Mississippi, etc.  Hopson came to USM from Alcorn State.  Prior to him being hired at Alcorn State they were not very good, and that's probably being nice.  He completely turned their football program around and led them to back to back SWAC championships and a Black College National Championship.  If you win championships at any level of college sports you are a good coach.

USM returns 6 starters on offense.  Returning starters are almost all skilled position players including two of the best players in C-USA, Ito Smith (RB) and Allenzae Staggers (WR).   USM better be glad they have 2 quality, experienced players at those positions because quarterback and offensive line are major question marks.  The QB position might be a revolving door with Keon Howard, Kwadra Griggs, and true freshman Marcelo Rodriguez all battling for snaps.  As I am posting this USM has not settled on a starting quarterback.  It appears Howard and Griggs are the front runners, but Rodriquez has gained some attention.    Offensive line returns just 2 starters.  I believe USM will rely heavily on Smith because he is obviously very talented, and it’s just easier for an unproven offensive line to run block compared to pass blocking.  

The USM defense from last year is something I am having a very hard time wrapping my head around.  They were 15^th in the nation in total defense (yards allowed), but they were 74^th in scoring defense.  Those numbers do not make sense.  I didn’t watch enough USM games to know what happened, but it appears they either gave up a lot of special teams touchdowns or the offense turned the ball over in bad spots.  USM doesn’t return a lot of starters(4-5), but all projected starters are upper classmen.  That means there is obviously some experience there.  This is a very good thing heading into the season.  Hopson knows defense.  This unit has potential to be good.  If USM can get their scoring defense in 2017 in line with their total defense from 2016 then this side of the ball could carry the team.  

Special teams appear to be something the Golden Eagles are pretty comfortable with heading into this year.  Parker Shaunfield was very consistent as a sophomore making 12 of 14 field goals.  There is talk that Shaunfield may be taking on all kicking responsibilities.  Special teams look like they are going to be something USM has an advantage at in most games.

Turnover margin is one of the most important things in football.  Over the course of a year teams with a positive number normally have a positive record and vice versa.  In 2016, USM was 125^th out of 128 teams in this category.  USM was -17 on the year.  The defense has some blame for this, but most of the blame lies on the offense.  They turned the ball over WAY too much.  They turned the ball over 32 times in 13 games.  That is horrible.  Protecting the ball is something the USM coaching staff had to be pounding away at in camp.  The starting quaterback position could end up going to the guy that protects the ball the best.  

Vegas books have given USM an O/U of 7 wins.  There are a lot of people out there predicting USM to beat Kentucky in the season opener.  I don’t see that happening because 1. USM beat them last year 2.  USM has a lot of question marks heading into the first game starting with QB 3.  Kentucky has more talent.  USM beating Kentucky would surprise me.  I was leaning toward 8 wins for the season, but I am going with 7-5.  Going with Vegas is a safe pick, but that’s how I see it.

Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.

Best Case Scenario 9-3: This best case would start with a win in the opener against Kentucky.  This would set USM up for a conference championship and a pretty good bowl game, but with the good may come the bad because Hopson would probably be courted for a bigger job.

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  For this to come into play it would take horrible play out of the quarterback position with many turnovers in bad spots.   

 

I hope by reading this you get something out of it that will make you a better football fan.   Tomorrow I will post about Ole Miss then MS State on Thursday.  The Ole Miss and Mississippi State posts will probably be a longer and more detailed.  Please feel free to share this.  Thanks!