Ole Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

University of Mississippi

No one thought in early July that Ole Miss would be entering the 2017 season with Matt Luke as the head coach.  Everyone reading this knows all about the drama that’s been going on in Oxford, so I’m not going to rehash all that out.  This a 2017 season preview not another bashing of Ole Miss or Freeze. 

Just like with Hopson at USM, Matt Luke is a Mississippi guy.  In fact, I would say Ole Miss is probably his dream job.  I don’t think he ever could have envisioned his dream job starting the way it has, but here he is leading the Rebels into the 2017 season.  Luke has been at Ole Miss since 2012, but he has zero head coaching experience.  From what I can tell no one on the Ole Miss coaching staff has ever had any head coaching experience.  In a league and division where there are established, experienced head coaches the coaching situation at Ole Miss is definitely something in question heading into the season.     

Offense

Losing Hugh Freeze is a major blow to the offensive side of the ball because even with all his many flaws he was a really good offensive coach.  Freeze had said he was going to let Longo call plays, but I didn’t really believe that.  Now it is definitely all on Longo.  Longo knows offense and knows how to call plays, but at this point in his career he just isn’t on the same level as Freeze was.  One thing Longo and Luke have going for them is that they have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

On paper it may look like the Rebels lost a lot with Kelly, Engram, Stringfellow, and Adeboyejo all gone, but they return a lot of play makers starting with Patterson.  Considering the situation Patterson played extremely well to finish the season in 2016.  The offensive unit will go as Patterson goes, and the sky really is the limit for him.  It’s not just Patterson though.  The Rebels may be as deep/talented at receiver as anyone in the SEC.  The Rebels will look to lean on the passing game, but the running game should be more successful.  The offensive line returns 7 or 8 from last year including 4 upper classmen.  Wilkins also returns to the team at running back.  I see a lot of positives and very few negatives coming from the offensive side of the ball for this team.

In 2016, Ole Miss was 26^th in total offense (yards) and 42^nd in scoring offense.  Those numbers need to be better in 2017 if this teams wants to have any chance of having a winning season.  I see the numbers improving and the offense being fun to watch, but will it be enough to carry this team?

Defense

This is the side of the ball that killed Ole Miss last year.  This unit was bad, really bad.  New defensive coordinator, Wesley McGriff, has his hands full because I see a unit that is limited heading into 2017.  Defense has some talented players up front in Haynes, Speaks, and Jones, but they are severely limited when it comes to depth at every level of the defense.  The front line guys are good enough, but in the SEC West you have to have depth, especially up front.

The weakest grouping on defense is far and away the linebackers.  I thought Ole Miss had the worst group of linebackers in the SEC last year.  Many guys are coming back, but I’m not very optimistic about them.  There is skill and depth at defensive back, but they are unproven.  More question marks…

In 2016, the defense was ranked 111^th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense.  Those numbers are a long way from the “Land Shark Defenses” from a few years ago.  This unit needs some guys to really step up, and they need the entire defense to remain somewhat healthy throughout the course of the year.  As good as I feel about Ole Miss on offense I feel equally bad about them on defense.

    

Special Teams

This is something I feel like Ole Miss can be confident in heading into the season.   Wunderlich was almost automatic last year.  He can handle all kicking duties if necessary, but Ole Miss has Gleason too.  Special teams could swing a game for the Rebels.

Prediction

Vegas has Ole Miss at over/under 5.5 wins.  It’s showing Over -135 and Under +105 which means they are leaning toward the over and this line could be 6.  I could see Ole Miss coming out of the gate hot with a 3-0 start.  Momentum will build in their bye week, but that will quickly be erased with six straight SEC games starting with trips to Bama and Auburn.  Those two road games, back to back, are brutal. How the Rebels play after those games is unknown, but I see the lack of defensive depth to start to take its toll in the middle of the season. 

The Rebels and the Saints will be similar to watch middle/late in the season with both scoring a lot of points, but not being able to stop anyone.  If you watch one on Saturday and the other on Sunday it may at times feel like you are watching the same game.  At times the games may look more like a track meet than a football game.

Most of the offseason I was leaning toward 5 wins, but I have settled on 6 wins.  You would think that number would have been lower with Hugh Freeze being gone, but I think the offensive side of the ball is talented enough to steal a game or two for Ole Miss this season in a shootout.  I could see Ole Miss play in a game this year where the total points is close to 100.

Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  

Best Case Scenario 8-4:  If this team can sustain the us vs the world mentality, gets many breaks, and stays healthy this best case scenario would come into play.  A lot of things would have to align for this to happen.

Worst Case Scenario 3-9:  It would take absolute disaster starting with a loss at Cal for this to happen.  A loss at Cal could really derail this team.  With everything going on off the field disaster is certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t see this happening.