Mississippi State 2018 Preview

The more I look into this MS State football team the more excited I get.  As a fan, I have tried to temper my expectations because I am 100% aware of how difficult the SEC and the SEC West are every year.   With all that in mind this football team is pretty loaded.  They return almost everyone from their 2 and 3 deep (I would argue that they are gaining more from redshirts/freshman than they lost from 2017 team).  All of these players return from a team that won 8 regular season games and beat Louisville in their bowl game with half of a coaching staff and a freshman quarterback.  Look at the MS State roster and you see SR/JR at almost every position with pretty significant past production.  Phil Steele has MS State at #5 on his experience returning chart.    

Coaching

The elephant in the room for this football program heading into the 2018 season is the coaching staff.  Dan Mullen was great at MS State going 69-46 in his 9 years in Starkville.  He did things that many people thought would never be possible.  He raised the expectations in Starkville to an unprecedented level.  He boomed economic development both in the city and on the campus.  Some didn’t like Mullen, but at the end of the day he did a fantastic job at MS State.  After the dust settles he will forever be one of the greatest coaches in program history.  Dan jetted to Florida with Scott Stricklin, and after a very quick and efficient coaching search by John Cohen the Joe Moorhead era at MS State officially began on November 28, 2017.

Time will obviously tell about Moorhead, but every single person who has ever covered him, played for him, coached with him, etc. raves about him as a football coach, motivator, and leader.  UCONN won with him.  Fordham won with him.  He completely changed the trajectory of the Penn State offense when James Franklin hired him.  Many even go as far as to credit him with saving James Franklin’s job.  I personally think that is a bit of a stretch, but it has been said by multiple people.  The offense at PSU the last few years has been dynamic.  In 2017, they were ranked 18th in yards per game with 460 and 6th in points per game with 41.1.  Those are both strong stats against good defenses in the Big 10. 

The one thing I will say I have seen from Moorhead is that he has hired an extremely talented and/or experienced group of coaches.  Mark Hudspeth and Joey Jones both have head coaching experience in FBS.  Charles Huff is considered by many as one of the top young assistants in the country.  You can go down the list and every coach either has great experience/success or has been pegged by many as a future star.  Like I said above time will tell, but this staff looks solid. 

Offense

The Bulldogs were a power running team last year, and they were extremely successful at it.  They ranked 12th nationally in rushing yards per game with 249.   Every person that created that running game success returns in 2017 including an offensive line that returns 5 guys that started a game last year.   The Bulldogs will be able to run the ball against any team they play with 4-6 different people.

What this team must have to reach the next level in 2018 is some form of a reliable passing game.  As good as this team ran the ball they were equally as bad at passing it.  They averaged 158 yards per game which put them at 116th nationally.  The passing game was not very good against average opponents, and it pretty much was nonexistent against quality SEC teams.  You can not be one dimensional against good SEC defenses.  If the offense can have a few reliable receiving options emerge this could be a ridiculously explosive offense even against quality SEC defenses.

Question marks for this side of the ball are obviously the passing game and depth on the line.  Talk out of camp has been that both of these are trending positive.  I did not mention Fitzgerald's health because I have seen absolutely nothing that doesn't show him being 100%.  I also didn't mention the suspension because I think that will not impact the season at all.  It may impact Fitz's future and his NFL draft position, but he could play past that if he has a great year.  The 2017 team was 52nd in yards per game with 407 and 42nd in points per game with 30.6.  Moorhead has a proven track record of proficient offenses.  I see no reason why this team can't be better on this side of the ball in 2018. 

Defense

This defensive line is the best to ever roll onto the field in all the years I have been watching MS State football.  They have the chance to be the best in the SEC.  When you have the chance to be the best in the SEC you are certainly in consideration for best in the country.  The defensive front can go 3 deep with very little drop off at every single position.  This defensive line group could have 6 guys make NFL rosters one day.  This defensive line is going to destroy a lot of offensive game plans.    

This defense is not a one trick pony though.  They have players at linebacker and in the secondary.  Anytime you have 2 senior safeties you have to feel confident in their ability to lead and make plays. McLaurin has been given the preseason honors, but some have Johnathan Abram as a possible first rounder in the NFL draft.  Those second level players are going to benefit from a defensive line that is going to absolutely wreak havoc against opposing lines.

16 of the top 20 tacklers return from the 2017 team that was 13th nationally in yards per game allowed with 329 and 31st in points allowed with 22.7.  If you made me choose a spot of weakness on defense it would be small question marks at cornerback and depth at linebacker and the secondary.  I’m telling you that those are very small question marks.  I see this defensive being top 10 in the country.

Prediction

In 2017, I predicted MS State to go 7-5 while Vegas had the O/U at 5.5-6.5.  As stated earlier they went 8-4.  Vegas has set the line at 8.5 for this football team.

 

Pick 9-3:  As bad as I wanted to go with 10-2 I know how tough the SEC is, and I know how tough the Egg Bowl is.  I think the Bulldogs will go into the Egg Bowl with a record of 9-2.

Best Case 11-1:  This football team has a ton to be optimistic about in 2018.  I am not being a homer when I say I would not be surprised if this team goes 11-1, and you see MS State in Atlanta.

Worst Case 7-5:  This team has too much talent, experience, depth, etc. to go below 7 wins.  It would take a slew of injuries and some bone headed moves by the coaching staff to get below 7 wins.