Ole Miss 2018

This football team will be very interesting to watch this year.  At times they are going to be super exciting for Ole Miss fans, but at other times they might be one of the most frustrating teams in the country.  The offense will be explosive and dynamic, but the defense will definitely be one of the worst in the conference (possibly the worst).  I would have liked to have been able to watch a scrimmage this fall because I know the offense had to roast the defense on the regular.

I feel like the schedule is not very favorable to the Rebels this year.  Their most winnable games are mostly on the road including their opener against Texas Tech.  I know that’s not technically a road game, but it is not at home. 

Coaching

Major credit should be given to Matt Luke and crew for the job they did in 2017.  They had all the chips stacked against them and ended up with a 6-6 record.  With mixed opinions Luke was named the full-time head coach.  I personally feel like that was the right decision considering the circumstances surrounding the program and the job he did on the field in 2017.

During the off season Luke has grown on me even more.  Freeze was so polarizing.  I don't think Luke would have done it any other way, but his only option was to lay low and just be a football coach.  I have no doubt that his players absolutely love him and that means so much when you are dealing with 18-22 year olds. 

If you have been living under a rock and have not heard the name Phil Longo you need to remember it.  From what I can tell Luke has made a great decision and basically turned the entire offense over to him.  He is a star in the making in the coaching profession.  I see no reason why he won't be a head coach in FBS.  It may be sooner than later after the ridiculous numbers they are going to produce this year.

Offense

This side of the ball will be explosive, to say the least.  8 of the 11 starters return from the 2017 team that was 21st in yards per game with 455 and 37th in points per game with 31.7.  The offensive line will be a really strong position group with a ton of experience, talent, and even depth.  I love teams that are strong up front because you win football games with the guys up front.  The skill players get all the accolades, but the big guys are where you win.

The passing game will be crazy good and probably will improve on the 314 yards per game in 2017 that gave them a ranking of 12th nationally.  Longo comes from the Mike Leach “Air Raid” coaching tree.  The offenses they put on the field regularly put up video game like numbers, especially in the passing game.  Combine that type of coaching with an unbelievable group of wide receivers and you have the makings of something special.  As good as I think the MS State defensive line is I think this receiving group is just as talented.  I could see Ole Miss gaining close to 5,000 yards in the air this year. 

 

The top rusher for Ole Miss in 2017 was Jordan Wilkins.  He currently is in the running to be the starter for the Colts this year.  Almost all the rushing production left with him, but I do not believe the cupboard is empty.  For starters, Ta'amu can run the ball.  You then have a talented JUCO transfer in Phillips and Eric Swinney.  Swinney has been unable to stay healthy, so there is some doubt with him(Swinney is currently out for at least 3 weeks with Mono).   I feel like it will be more of a running game by committee for the Rebels, but I think the production will be there.  It may have to be manufactured at times by using short passes, but there will be enough to support the dynamic passing attack.  If I were an Ole Miss fan I would feel very confident in your offense even with the question marks at running back.  

Defense

As good as the offensive side of the ball could be in 2018 the defense might be equally as bad.  Coaches are high on the starters especially Josiah Coatney, but no one knows what they have after the first group.  The defense is looking for Benito Jones to step up in a major way along with some others who can either stop the run or rush the passer.

The news gets bad when you get to the linebackers.  This is going to be the worst group on the team in 2018.  Ole Miss will be relying heavily on some young guys including multiple freshman.  This group must find some starters that can tackle, and they must stay healthy.  If both of those don't happen this defense will struggle mightily.  The Ole Miss defense ranked 125th against the run last year giving up 248 yards per game.  If someone doesn't emerge to stop the run in this group they will be right back at the bottom. 

The secondary looks like it will be the best position group on the defense, and it really doesn't appear to be close.  From what I can tell they have 8 players with experience.  There is talent on the back end.  I could see a few of these guys getting a shot at the NFL.  The secondary will be a bright spot on a defense that will really be looking for one.   

The defense for Ole Miss was ranked 117th giving up 471 yards per game and 112th giving up 35.6 points per game in 2017.  They lost several of their best players from last year.  It's hard to see them getting worse because the group was already at the bottom, but it's just as hard to really see much improvement coming from this side of the ball.  The defense was 13th in the SEC in 2017.  If they stay healthy they could jump to 12th, but I see them probably falling to last in the SEC in 2018.

Prediction

In 2017, I picked Ole Miss to go 6-6, and Matt Luke to be named the head football coach.  I thought they would do that without winning the Egg Bowl.  Vegas has them at 6 over/under for 2018.

Pick 6-6:  This is kind of the safe pick because siding with Vegas is pretty easy because they are fantastic at what they do.  I have no faith in this defense, but I have so much in the offense.  The offense will win a couple of shoot outs to get them to 6 wins.

Best Case 8-4: It would take drastic improvement from the defense to get here.  The defense would have to stay almost perfectly healthy and some of the young guys will have to emerge as play makers.

Worst Case 4-8:  If this team gets hit with some injuries early they would be underdogs in every SEC game they play this year.