University of Southern Mississippi 2013 Football Preview

University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

 

Southern Mississippi is starting over for the second time in 2 seasons.  It is extremely rare that a coach only makes it one season at a school before being fired.  Ellis Johnson was fired after one year because his team did something extremely rare.  They did not win a single football game.  I did not think the hiring of Ellis Johnson was a good fit for USM, but I never imagined they would not win a single game under him.  USM needs an energetic coach with an offensive background.  Johnson and his staff were anything but that.

All that being said, this is a new year.  2012 is gone and USM has a new coach heading into the 2013 season.  Fedora came from Oklahoma State.  He was successful at USM.  If the formula worked once why not try it again.  USM has once again hired away the OSU offensive coordinator.  This time around it is Todd Monken.   Funny story is that Monken was passed up before the 2012 season in favor of Ellis Johnson.  Monken overhauled the entire coaching staff.  He only retained one coach from Johnson’s staff.

 

OFFENSE



Monken is one of the new age offensive minds that believes in playing fast, both during plays and between plays.  If his offense gets a first down they are going to step on the gas.  It is hard to play fast on the first few plays of a drive because if you go 3 and out your defense could be back on the field in only a few minutes setting them up for a bad situation.  Earning just one first down allows an offense to move quicker.  It is really a snowball effect because if they get 2 or 3 first downs they are taking very little time off the clock.  If you have watched Oregon in recent years or even OSU this is exactly what they do.  Monken is trying to bring that to USM. 

I believe Monken’s formula for success will work in Conference USA.   The problem with Monken’s offense this year is that he doesn’t have a quarterback to operate it.  The quarterback position could be a carousel.  The system Monken runs does most of the work for the QB.  Monken just needs someone who can manage the offense and make routine throws.    

One of the best things to help a young, undeveloped quarterback is a good running game.  USM has a pretty decent group of running backs, but a running game depends on the offensive line.  The offense line is a major question mark.  There are a couple of returning players, but as a whole the offensive line is a weakness.  The offensive line is probably the biggest concern for USM heading into the season.

If you didn’t understand anything from what I said you understood that the offense for USM has issues up and down the depth chart heading into the 2013 season.  Issues on offense are something I believe Monken can handle.  His offensive game plan will hide some holes in the offense.  Even during an obvious offensive rebuilding year I think Monken will get some production out of this unit.

 

DEFENSE

This seems pretty obvious because USM did not win a game last year, but like all other units their defense was terrible in 2012.  When I think of USM in my lifetime I always just assume they are going to have a good defense.  Monken’s best decision during the offseason may have been to get Dave Duggan to come back to Hattiesburg as the defensive coordinator.  Duggan was at USM under Fedora.  When Fedora went to North Carolina Duggan went with him.  Duggan is back and is very familiar with many of the defensive players returning in 2013.

First thing I have to mention about this unit is that they will never be able to replace Jamie Collins.  That dude was a beast.  Collins will become a household name playing for the Patriots.  Jamie Collins did everything for the defensive unit in 2012.  Collins drew a big star from every team USM played.  Two guys were allocated to him on almost every play.  I can’t imagine how bad the defensive unit would have been in 2012 without Collins.

This unit returns some experienced players at every level.  Even with the loss of Collins, this unit has the chance to be significantly improved under Duggan.  5 of the 7 defenders at linebacker and defensive back are seniors, including linebackers Alan Howze and Dylan Reda.   Question mark for this team is the defensive line and the lack of quality depth.  This unit has the potential to be very good if some young guys can emerge as contributors. 

This sounds so obvious, but the key to this defense is getting turnovers.  In 2011 the Golden Eagles produced 28 turnovers.  In 2012 they only produced 12 turnovers.  With the number of quality athletes on this unit I see no reason why they don’t regain some confidence and be dominating in the C-USA.  

SEASON PREDICTION

Who created this brutal schedule for USM?  Their schedule is without question the toughest in the C-USA and maybe the toughest of all non BCS schools in the country.  USM goes on the road to Nebraska, Arkansas, Boise State, ECU, Marshall, and La Tech.  If Monken gets some consistent quarterback play and gets the offense going this team will go bowling.  If the quarterback and offensive line struggle this is going be another forgettable year in Hattiesburg.  I think Monken will get some steady play out of the offense, but USM is notorious for losing to a team they should beat.  I think that one let down game will cause them to miss post season play.       

Best Case Scenario: 7 and 5

Worst Case Scenario: 2 and 10

My Prediction: 5 and 7  

INTERESTING FACTS

As stated above it is rare for a coach to only get one year in before being fired.  Joe Lee Dunn was fired at Ole Miss after just one year in 1994. 

USM had compiled 18 winning seasons in a row heading into 2012.  Heading into the 2012 season that streak was the 4^th longest in FBS behind Florida State (37), Florida (26), and Virginia Tech (21).

Stadium Capacity is 36,000.  Stadium was originally constructed in 1932.  Name was changed to Carlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M Roberts Stadium in 2004.  Major renovation took place in 2008 with the addition of 4,000 seats and 33 suites.  Attendance record was set on September 5, 2009 against Alcorn State.  Attendance for that game was 36,232.

Noteworthy football alumnist - Brett Favre, Derrick Nix, Sammy Winder, Tyrone Nix, Reggie Collier, and Hall of Famer Ray Guy.

Southern Mississippi has never had a consensus All-American

8 Conference Championships - Most recent was in 2011 under Larry Fedora

USM is considered to have three major rivals.  They have a winning record against all three.  Those teams are La Tech(Rivalry in Dixie), Memphis(Black and Blue Bowl), and Tulane(Battle for the Bell). 

 

As always I am enjoy comments, feedbacks, suggestions, criticism, and especially compliments.  If you have an opinion on something I would like to hear it.  Thanks for reading. 



Week 7 Analysis/Week 8 Preview

The first BCS rankings of the year came out this week. The top 3 are in line with how I would put them(LSU/Bama/Oklahoma). Once you get past the top 3 you could really draw out of a hat for the next 4 or 5 spots. At this point in the season I agree with the poll having LSU at #1. Both Bama and LSU have looked impressive, but the Tigers have just played a tougher schedule up to this point than Bama. The great thing about this is that the rankings really don't matter because Bama and LSU play each other. Everything will be solved on the field instead of by some pencil pushing sports writers.

As I said last week USM has their biggest game of the year this Saturday against SMU, 7PM on CBS Sports Network. The Golden Eagles came out as 3.5 point favorite in this game. The line currently sits at 3. I don't see this line moving much if any between now and the game. This will be USM's toughest challenge yet. SMU comes into this game at 5-1 with their only loss to Texas A&M the first game of the year. SMU can score points (33rd in nation) and keep their opponents from scoring (23rd in nation). USM is pretty good statistically on both sides of the ball too, Offense (19th) and Defense (38th). Stats are a good indicator of what kind of team you have at this point in the year because every team has played enough games to get a good average. Stats show this being a close game. I'm saying this will be one of the best games of the weekend. If you are a USM fan then GO, but if you are a football fan you should at least watch this game. See what the current best team in MS has to offer.

Things for Ole Miss have gone from bad to worse to terrible. The bad for the Rebels this week, they got hit pretty hard by injuries against Bama. Two starting defensive players were lost for the season from a unit that is already thin at many positions. The worse for the Rebels this week, is that they are pitiful on offense. The Rebels can not run or pass which is shown by them being ranked 117th nationally in total offense. The terrible for the Rebels this week, they play another really good opponent. Arkansas is not Bama, but they are a legitimate top 10 team. Line for this quickly jumped 2.5 points to 17 when it came out. The line currently sits at 16.5. This is a good bet even up to 21. Arkansas will score in the 40s, and I don't see how the Rebels can get to 20 points unless something crazy happens. The Rebels may not get to 4 wins this year. Rebels needs to start figuring out where they are going to get the 6 million+ it will take to fire the staff in Oxford

The only positive for Ole Miss fans right now is that the situation in Starkville is far from good. Every person in the stadium Saturday knew that South Carolina was going to throw the ball to Alshon Jeffery on their last TD. Banks should be covering Jeffery in that situation with help. I see negative after negative on offense when I watch MS State play. The center snaps the ball back to the quaterback in shotgun like a high school center. The ball wabbles back to the qb and half the time it is off target. This is the SEC and that is not acceptable. The center did not even have anyone lined up on him so that excuse is out. The snap should be a spiral quickly back to the qb right in his chest. Many of MSU's plays out of shotgun are timing plays and the pathetic snaps throw everything off. I can't imagine how bad the snaps will be when Bama has someone lined up in the A gap. Bad snaps lead to my next statement about the offense. Ms State had at least 8 wasted plays on offense Saturday. When I say wasted I mean plays that have a fumble/bad snap, a player running the wrong route/direction, etc. Every play is precious and you can't have 10-15% of them wasted. Good news for MSU is that they have an off week followed by games against two opponents that they SHOULD beat. Defense is playing really solid football right now, but the offense has some major problems. The Bulldogs have got to get better on offense in the off week.

A Few notes:

I currently believe USM has the best football team in MS.

Realignment has taken a weird turn.. Boise State going to the Big East?? That makes no sense at all.

The Wisconsin/Mich State game should be a good game, if there is such a thing in the Big 10 anymore. Wisconsin has a high powered offense and Mich State has a top 5 defense. Something has to give in this game. I think it is the Mich State defense.

TCU is a 41 point favorite. I like TCU as a football team/program, but New Mexico must be terrible to get a line this high. A 40+ point spread at this point in the year is typically a good underdog bet.

The World Series starts tonight on Fox. MLB has lost some of its luster in the last few years for several reasons... Extremely long seasons, public knowledge of scandals involving HGH/steroids, and the rise of football popularity to a level no one has seen before. With all that being said both college and pro baseball are providing a quality product on the field right now. Sit down for a little while during this series and watch a little baseball. You won't be disappointed. My pick is for the Rangers to win in 6 games.

Thanks for reading. Please continue to email me any comments or suggestions. I enjoy reading what other people think Wally146@aol.com

Wally

Week 6 Analysis/Week 7 Preview

First thing I want to talk about is how ridiculous top 25 polls are. Florida currently sits outside of the top 25 at around 26 or 27. Florida lost to the best two teams in the country the previous two weeks. They went from being ranked 12th to 26th after losing to the Number 1A and 1B teams in the nation. My argument isn't whether Florida should or shouldn't be ranked. My argument is that if these sports writers felt like Florida was the 12th best team in the nation two weeks ago then how does losing to Bama and LSU make them think they are now the 26th best team. Another note about the top 25 is Michigan is ranked 10th or 11th depending on which poll you look at. This is a joke. Michigan has played no body (Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and ND. I predict it right now... Michigan will have a 9-10 win season. They will then go to a bowl game and play an SEC team that will smash them.

Southern Miss is rolling. I feel like the current bye week comes at a bad time for the Golden Eagles. Bye weeks are tricky situations. When a team is playing good ball a bye week can be a step back. However, if a team is struggling with consistency and injuries a bye week can be a positive. USM does have some players injured, but every team has that this time of year. This week needs to be used to get some fundamentals fixed and some players healthy. Next week USM has a huge game against SMU. SMU is back on the map. The death penalty they received from the NCAA in the mid 80s took them 20+ years to recover from. The biggest game of the year for USM is next Saturday. If you claim to be a USM fan you should go to Hattiesburg and support your team for this game.

Saying Ole Miss has a tough game this week is an understatement. They are basically playing a NFL team in Oxford on Saturday(5PM CT ESPN2). Ole Miss has absolutely no chance in this game. The Alabama defense enters this game only giving up an average of 7 points a game and 37.7 rushing yards. Both of those stats are ranked number 1 in the nation by a long shot. Ole Miss enters the game with the 99th ranked rushing offense at 115.6 yards per game. The Rebels will not be able to get anything going on the ground making them one dimensional on offense. The Bama defense will produce 3+ turnovers and blow the Rebels out. Spread on this game currently sits at Bama -25. Take this bet, because this could be a 5 touchdown game. I don't mean any disrespect to Ole Miss by the above comments. The simple fact is that Bama is just that good.

South Caroline comes to Starkville this weekend for an early kick (11AM CT SEC Network - CBS local). Every game for the remainder of the season is important for MS State because wins become precious this time of year. The early season thoughts of a potential 8 win season are long gone. Bulldogs need to figure out some way to get 3 more wins. It does not matter who they are against. There is potential in the schedule for this to happen, but it will take MSU playing better football. Last week proved there is a quarterback controversy in Starkville. Relf or Russell? Someone that makes a lot more money than I do has to make that decision. MSU may not have won Saturday if it were not for the change at quarterback. This has been a weird year for both MSU and USC. Each of these teams had high expectations for their offenses, but the defenses for both teams has been the better unit up to this point in the season. Spread for this game opened at USC -5. It currently sits at 3 points. I like the Gamecocks in this game at -3, but I will be happy if the Bulldogs pull out a victory.

Few extra comments:

In the way too early to look at category... Bama is a 6.5 point favorite over LSU for their game Nov 5th.

Oklahoma State came out as a 5.5 point favorite over Texas. This line is currently between 7 and 8. I really liked this line at 5.5 - 7. Over 7 makes this a little tougher to say I really like. However I think this is a good bet even if the line gets up around 10. This line is under 10 simply because it is Texas.

Highest line for the weekend is Oklahoma -34 against Kansas. I enjoy looking at the highest line every weekend because typically it is a good underdog bet. This would not be a good underdog bet. Oklahoma will hang 50+ on Kansas.

As always I appreciate you reading this. Email me any thoughts, comments, or ideas because I enjoy hearing people's responses... Wally146@aol.com

Wally

Week 5 Analysis/Week 6 Preview

The thing that once again stood out this past weekend was how dominant Alabama was. The Bama defense knocked out John Brantley a week after they made Bobby Petrino pull Tyler Wilson out of the game because he feared he would get hurt. This Alabama defense has at least 8 players that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft om 2012. They have many others that will be drafted in 2013, 2014, etc.

Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.

Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.

Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.

My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.

Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.

USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.

Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.



Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.

Wally

College Football Predictions - MS Teams

Southern Miss (10-2) Best Case Undefeated Worst Case 8-4


Let me start by saying this.. USM has a joke for a schedule. You can’t predicted how all teams will be this year, but their predicted schedule strength is 112 out of 120 teams. They play 9 teams that ended last season with a losing record and one with a .500 record. The only team I see competing with them in the CUSA east is UCF. The game against UCF on November 12 will be the biggest game of the year for USM. You are definitely not a USM fan if you don’t go support your team that game.

I feel like USM will slip up against someone prior to their November 12th game. If I had to make a guess I would say playing Navy on the road will be the loss. The week after Navy they play SMU at home in a game that will be tough, but I think USM will take care of business in that one. I have USM beating UCF in the biggest game of the year on November 12, but I have them losing in a trap game the following week against UAB.

I predict USM will then play the C-USA Championship game at home against Houston. They will win this game and go on to play an SEC team in the Liberty Bowl. USM will then get to see what kind of team they really are. Nonetheless USM will have a season fans should be proud of. 10 plus wins is good no matter what league or division you play in.



Ole Miss (5-7) Best Case 7-5 Worst Case 4-8

Everyone knows about BYU coming to Oxford this weekend. This is an enormous game for Ole Miss. I really don’t know about the outcome of this game because there are so many question marks going into this season for Ole Miss. I want to say they will win because they are a SEC school with size and speed, but BYU has a good team. Vegas currently has BYU as a 3 point favorite. This means Vegas is saying they are a 7-10 point favorite on a neutral site. I will predict this game to be close, and if I had to pick I would say BYU will leave with the win in a nail bitter. After all is said and done this will be one of the best games of the weekend. As I said above this game is a huge game for the Ole Miss coaching staff, players, and the fans. A win here could bring the best case scenario above into play.

Ole Miss will then beat Southern Il, Vandy, Fresno State, Kentucky, and La Tech. The Rebels will compete in almost every SEC game they play this year, but I just don’t see them being talented enough to beat UGA, Bama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, or MSU. However, Ole Miss always gives LSU hell and that probably won’t change this year. I predict MSU to win the Egg Bowl, but that is a game where anything can happen especially if the Rebels or on the best case scenario path.

I have talked about the best case scenario for the Rebels a couple of times in this, but I just don’t see their season heading in the direction of 7 wins. All the questions and a top 20 strength of schedule appear to set up for a rough year in Oxford. With that being said Houston Nutt will be as John Hobson says Gawn. 2 straight losing seasons, 2 straight seasons without a bowl, and worst of all 3 straight losses to the Bulldogs will send Nutt packing. Two rough seasons in a row make the 2 Cotton Bowl victories seem like a decade ago. Who knows if firing Nutt will be the right or wrong decision, but I predict that it will happen.



Mississippi State (8-4) Best Case 10-2 Worst Case 5-7

I have struggled with this prediction for a couple of months now, but I have with my mind and some heart decided to go with MSU ending the season 8-4. The Bulldogs pretty much have 4 non-conference guarantees. Memphis should be improved this year, but I see the Bulldogs beating them by at least 4 TDs. Ms State will probably at some point in the game score TDs on 3 or 4 straight possessions, maybe more. The Bulldogs just have too much size and speed for Memphis to keep this remotely close.

The season for MSU then really begins with a trip to the Plains in a bloody mary game Sept 10. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs. I believe they will beat Auburn just because Auburn has so many question marks with the loss of almost everyone except Dyer. The Bulldogs then have LSU in Starkville on Thursday night. Entering this game with a 2-0 record will make Davis Wade Stadium the place to be. These big time Thursday night games have not been good for Mississippi teams the last decade. Will MSU stop the losing streak to the Bayou Bengals? I really have no idea, but one can only imagine that place if they get a win. I have this game along with Georgia, USC, Bama, and Arkansas as the toss up game for the Bulldogs this year. The bulldogs will win the 4 non conference games, Auburn, UK, and Ole Miss along with one other win against the five other SEC teams on the schedule.

Realistically MSU fans should be happy with an 8-4 season and a second consecutive bowl game. The offseason will be filled with questions of whether Dan Mullen will leave or not. I think the only way he leaves Starkville, is if Ohio State offers him their open job or Joe Pa finally hangs it up and Penn State comes calling.