University of Southern Mississippi 2013 Football Preview

University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

 

Southern Mississippi is starting over for the second time in 2 seasons.  It is extremely rare that a coach only makes it one season at a school before being fired.  Ellis Johnson was fired after one year because his team did something extremely rare.  They did not win a single football game.  I did not think the hiring of Ellis Johnson was a good fit for USM, but I never imagined they would not win a single game under him.  USM needs an energetic coach with an offensive background.  Johnson and his staff were anything but that.

All that being said, this is a new year.  2012 is gone and USM has a new coach heading into the 2013 season.  Fedora came from Oklahoma State.  He was successful at USM.  If the formula worked once why not try it again.  USM has once again hired away the OSU offensive coordinator.  This time around it is Todd Monken.   Funny story is that Monken was passed up before the 2012 season in favor of Ellis Johnson.  Monken overhauled the entire coaching staff.  He only retained one coach from Johnson’s staff.

 

OFFENSE



Monken is one of the new age offensive minds that believes in playing fast, both during plays and between plays.  If his offense gets a first down they are going to step on the gas.  It is hard to play fast on the first few plays of a drive because if you go 3 and out your defense could be back on the field in only a few minutes setting them up for a bad situation.  Earning just one first down allows an offense to move quicker.  It is really a snowball effect because if they get 2 or 3 first downs they are taking very little time off the clock.  If you have watched Oregon in recent years or even OSU this is exactly what they do.  Monken is trying to bring that to USM. 

I believe Monken’s formula for success will work in Conference USA.   The problem with Monken’s offense this year is that he doesn’t have a quarterback to operate it.  The quarterback position could be a carousel.  The system Monken runs does most of the work for the QB.  Monken just needs someone who can manage the offense and make routine throws.    

One of the best things to help a young, undeveloped quarterback is a good running game.  USM has a pretty decent group of running backs, but a running game depends on the offensive line.  The offense line is a major question mark.  There are a couple of returning players, but as a whole the offensive line is a weakness.  The offensive line is probably the biggest concern for USM heading into the season.

If you didn’t understand anything from what I said you understood that the offense for USM has issues up and down the depth chart heading into the 2013 season.  Issues on offense are something I believe Monken can handle.  His offensive game plan will hide some holes in the offense.  Even during an obvious offensive rebuilding year I think Monken will get some production out of this unit.

 

DEFENSE

This seems pretty obvious because USM did not win a game last year, but like all other units their defense was terrible in 2012.  When I think of USM in my lifetime I always just assume they are going to have a good defense.  Monken’s best decision during the offseason may have been to get Dave Duggan to come back to Hattiesburg as the defensive coordinator.  Duggan was at USM under Fedora.  When Fedora went to North Carolina Duggan went with him.  Duggan is back and is very familiar with many of the defensive players returning in 2013.

First thing I have to mention about this unit is that they will never be able to replace Jamie Collins.  That dude was a beast.  Collins will become a household name playing for the Patriots.  Jamie Collins did everything for the defensive unit in 2012.  Collins drew a big star from every team USM played.  Two guys were allocated to him on almost every play.  I can’t imagine how bad the defensive unit would have been in 2012 without Collins.

This unit returns some experienced players at every level.  Even with the loss of Collins, this unit has the chance to be significantly improved under Duggan.  5 of the 7 defenders at linebacker and defensive back are seniors, including linebackers Alan Howze and Dylan Reda.   Question mark for this team is the defensive line and the lack of quality depth.  This unit has the potential to be very good if some young guys can emerge as contributors. 

This sounds so obvious, but the key to this defense is getting turnovers.  In 2011 the Golden Eagles produced 28 turnovers.  In 2012 they only produced 12 turnovers.  With the number of quality athletes on this unit I see no reason why they don’t regain some confidence and be dominating in the C-USA.  

SEASON PREDICTION

Who created this brutal schedule for USM?  Their schedule is without question the toughest in the C-USA and maybe the toughest of all non BCS schools in the country.  USM goes on the road to Nebraska, Arkansas, Boise State, ECU, Marshall, and La Tech.  If Monken gets some consistent quarterback play and gets the offense going this team will go bowling.  If the quarterback and offensive line struggle this is going be another forgettable year in Hattiesburg.  I think Monken will get some steady play out of the offense, but USM is notorious for losing to a team they should beat.  I think that one let down game will cause them to miss post season play.       

Best Case Scenario: 7 and 5

Worst Case Scenario: 2 and 10

My Prediction: 5 and 7  

INTERESTING FACTS

As stated above it is rare for a coach to only get one year in before being fired.  Joe Lee Dunn was fired at Ole Miss after just one year in 1994. 

USM had compiled 18 winning seasons in a row heading into 2012.  Heading into the 2012 season that streak was the 4^th longest in FBS behind Florida State (37), Florida (26), and Virginia Tech (21).

Stadium Capacity is 36,000.  Stadium was originally constructed in 1932.  Name was changed to Carlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M Roberts Stadium in 2004.  Major renovation took place in 2008 with the addition of 4,000 seats and 33 suites.  Attendance record was set on September 5, 2009 against Alcorn State.  Attendance for that game was 36,232.

Noteworthy football alumnist - Brett Favre, Derrick Nix, Sammy Winder, Tyrone Nix, Reggie Collier, and Hall of Famer Ray Guy.

Southern Mississippi has never had a consensus All-American

8 Conference Championships - Most recent was in 2011 under Larry Fedora

USM is considered to have three major rivals.  They have a winning record against all three.  Those teams are La Tech(Rivalry in Dixie), Memphis(Black and Blue Bowl), and Tulane(Battle for the Bell). 

 

As always I am enjoy comments, feedbacks, suggestions, criticism, and especially compliments.  If you have an opinion on something I would like to hear it.  Thanks for reading. 



Week Two Mississippi College Football

Posts from here on out may be a little longer than normal, but I feel like the extra will be worth the read.  I will try to figure out how to get them shorter as the year goes on because I know that no one wants to read 20 pages... they won't be that long, but I'm just making a point.

 

 



Southern Mississippi

I will keep the post on USM short this week because they have an open date.  Southern Mississippi disappointed me as much as any team in the nation in week one.  I HOPE for the sake of USM Nebraska is better than advertised, but I am not sure that is the case.  I knew the offense was going to be a work in progress, but I had no idea the defense for USM was going to get steam rolled like they did, especially up front.  USM has this bye week then a couple of easy games before they get back into the meat of their schedule.  Time is on the side of the Golden Eagles, but they need to start improving.

 

Ole Miss

 

Ole Miss struggled a little early against Central Arkansas, but that is to be expected when you have a new offense and quarterback.  Hugh Freeze rallied the troops at halftime then the Rebels exploded on offense.  This week's opponent is a little different than Central Arkansas.  I have been saying since the schedule was announced that the University of Texas El Paso (UTEP) could come to Oxford and beat the Rebels.  UTEP played Oklahoma a really tough game.

The spread for this game opened at -4.  I personally thought this was a low spread at the time.  The spread currently sits at Ole Miss -7.5.  I anticipate that this spread will increase a little more before game time.

Biggest key in this game is the protection of Bo Wallace.  This is a critical part of every game for every team, but I want to give some reasons why its showing up more this week.  The Ole Miss offensive line struggled at times against Central Arkansas giving up 3 sacks.  You can argue one or two of those were not the lines fault, but either way a sack is a sack.  UTEP had success pressuring Landry Jones of Oklahoma.  I think it's fair to say that if UTEP got pressure on Jones with his line they are big eyed when watching film of the Rebels.  Bo Wallace is a SEC talent at quarterback.  If the line protects him he will make the necessary plays for the Rebels to get a win Saturday.



The Ole Miss faithful will know a lot more about this football team about 9 o'clock Saturday night.  Nothing I see says either team will run away with this game.  I think the offenses will score points.  The Rebels pull out the win in a NAIL BITTER.  I think a lot of points will go on the board in the second half so get ready for a roller coaster.

I have mentioned I was going to do something a little different this week and probably for the rest of the year.  I am going to insert a paragraph or two from other people whose football opinion I respect.  I will mix this up a lot.  This week I am getting the opinion on Ole Miss from and Ole Miss fan and vice versa for MSU.  At some point I'm going to get the opinion for Ole Miss from a MSU fan.  I had absolutely zero input into what the comments from other people are.  I wrote my comments first to make sure I wasn't persuaded one way or another because the people I am going to chose will make some great points. 

The comments for Ole Miss this week come from my cousin Tyler Cummins...

UTEP appeared to play Oklahoma a good game until late in the game (2 TDs in the 4th quarter). Seeing that Oklahoma is the #4 team, that's worrisome at first glance. Chris Cummins has a business friend he works with that is a former Oklahoma player. The OU guy said there's absolutely no way that OU should be ranked #4 this year and that the only reason OU is ranked that high is because they're OU (I found it funny that a fan, not to mention a former player, would say that about his own school. I thought outsiders were the only ones allowed to shoot those bullets). So maybe UTEP didn't really play the #4 team a good game, but regardless they still played a good game against a top 15 team. The final score was 24-7. The 7 points UTEP scored came off a turnover. I say that to get to the point that UTEP's offense didn't put any points on the board against OU. Despite that, UTEP's defense surrendered only 24 to OU. Holding a big 12 offense to 24 points is an accomplishment in my book. At this point I'm of the opinion that UTEP has a solid defense but a suspect offense. That's interesting because Ole Miss appears to be in the opposite boat - having a productive offense but a suspect defense. I believe the main reason OM won it's opening game against UCA was due to depth. UCA played OM a very solid game for one half but shortly into the second half OM became the dominant team and UCA appeared to be gassed.

Looking ahead to the weekend... The game depends on what type UTEP team shows up. If the same team that showed up against OU last weekend shows up this weekend, this will be a hard fought and worrisome game for rebel fans. Conversely, if OM jumps out to an early lead this Saturday, I see OM carrying the momentum throughout the game. This game worries me. OM will have to play sound football and catch all the breaks to win. UTEP's offense will not be shut out again and OM's offense will not score 49 against that UTEP defense.

Rebels 27

UTEP 24

Mississippi State

Final Play of 2011 MSU/Auburn game

 



The first week went as expected for MSU.  Jackson State is not a formidable opponent but MSU looked really good against the Tigers.  The Tiger opponent this week comes into Starkville with just a little more talent.  At 11 AM on Saturday the Mississippi State Bulldogs will arguably play the biggest game in Dan Mullen's head coaching career.  Everything is on the line for MS State this week.  If you are a fan of the Bulldogs you need to get up early Saturday and get to Starkville.  I truly feel like this game means everything for 2012. 

 

Last year at Auburn the Bulldogs got down early with bad decisions on special teams and penalties that lead to great Auburn field position.  The team came back strong and looked like they were on their way to an easy W.  Auburn then came back and the rest is history.  All that being said.. The Bulldogs have got to get off to a better start in this game than last year.. (First thing they need to do is get out of the tunnel on the field)





If Ms State can get going early the running game and defense have the ability to take over the game.  The Bulldogs pounded Auburn on the ground in last year's game.  Auburn got exposed on the ground against Clemson, so Dan Mullen and crew have to be game planning to do much of the same.        

Jackson State dropped several passes over the middle against the Bulldogs that Lutzenkirchen would have hauled in for huge gains/first downs.  Lutzenkirchen is the X factor for this entire game.  He is a mismatch for basically anyone on the MSU defense.  I look for the Bulldogs to jam him off the line with a defensive end.  After that they will either cover him man with a hybrid linebacker like Matt Wells or double cover him.  The problem with double covering him is you can't double him and Emory Blake at the same time.  Time for Banks and Slay to step up and shut Blake down by themselves.  Lutzenkirchen will put up stats in this game, but the Bulldog defense must find a way to contain him. 



I think these two teams are evenly matched heading into this bloody mary game. Vegas currently has MSU a -3.5 point favorite. The spread for this opened at -2, but it has slowly inched higher. Many early week media predictions had Auburn taking this victory, but as the week goes on the big boys in the media are weighing in with predicitions of MSU winning.

I think the Bulldogs are ready for this one.  They have lost heart breakers to the Auburn Tigers the last 2 years.  Those heart breakers have been a great motivating tool for this team.  I would guess that the name Auburn has been mentioned thousands of times in private with this team.   MS State and Mullen are due a break and I think it comes Saturday.  Get to this game early and get ready for a good one!                

 

The comments for Mississippi State this week come from the one and only Mr. Austin Owen...

1 yard or 36 inches. Either way you want to describe it, this was the difference between a win and a loss against Auburn last year. That doesn’t seem like a lot in terms of distance, but that 1 yard defined our season and it was only week 2. Ask any Ole Miss fan, and they will be quick to tell you that we have not beat any SEC West team besides them since Dan Mullen’s arrival in 2009. Since 2001, Auburn has a record of 10-1 over MSU. MSU’s last win against Auburn was in 2007, which brings me to my next point. It took Croom 4 years to get our program going in the right direction and finally take us back to a bowl game, this will be Dan Mullen’s 4^th year as the head coach and all of the pieces seem to be in place to make a run in the SEC West.

It is definitely a down year for Auburn, but if the past can predict the future, then MSU will most certainly have a tough game ahead of them. Auburn played up and coming Clemson this past Saturday, and with a new Offensive Coordinator they struggled showing an identity early on. They threw the ball 27 times completing only 11 for 194 yards and rushed 37 for 180 yards with 2 turnovers. Auburn will have to do a better job on 3^rd down situations, Saturday they were 4-13 in 3 down plays, and 0-1 on 4^th down plays. Auburn will have to protect the ball and control the clock if they want to win this game, if they can eliminate turnovers they have a legitimate shot and making the record 11-1 over MSU.

Mississippi State showed that its offense has been tailored to fit Tyler Russell and we will live and die by how well he plays this year. The WR’s for MSU have to create separation for Russell to have any success, this isn’t Jackson State, these are SEC DB’s and they will play man to man. Look for TE’s Green and Brandon Hill to have a big game, Auburns LB’s are weak compared to previous teams, if they can get past the LB’s then they should have the opportunity to make some plays. In the past, most people have said that if a d-line can create pressure, then the QB will make a mistake. That is true, but I believe that with the quality of our Secondary this year, Auburns QB will have to hold onto the ball a little longer than usual waiting for separation to occur and that will allow our Defensive line that much more time to get pressure on him. 

Going into Mullen’s 4^th year as a head coach, look for him to be more confident in his play calls and the identity of this team.

FINAL SCORE: Auburn – 20 MSU – 27