Posts from here on out may be a little longer than normal, but I feel like the extra will be worth the read. I will try to figure out how to get them shorter as the year goes on because I know that no one wants to read 20 pages... they won't be that long, but I'm just making a point.
Southern Mississippi
I will keep the post on USM short this week because they have an open date. Southern Mississippi disappointed me as much as any team in the nation in week one. I HOPE for the sake of USM Nebraska is better than advertised, but I am not sure that is the case. I knew the offense was going to be a work in progress, but I had no idea the defense for USM was going to get steam rolled like they did, especially up front. USM has this bye week then a couple of easy games before they get back into the meat of their schedule. Time is on the side of the Golden Eagles, but they need to start improving.
Ole Miss
Ole Miss struggled a little early against Central Arkansas, but that is to be expected when you have a new offense and quarterback. Hugh Freeze rallied the troops at halftime then the Rebels exploded on offense. This week's opponent is a little different than Central Arkansas. I have been saying since the schedule was announced that the University of Texas El Paso (UTEP) could come to Oxford and beat the Rebels. UTEP played Oklahoma a really tough game.
The spread for this game opened at -4. I personally thought this was a low spread at the time. The spread currently sits at Ole Miss -7.5. I anticipate that this spread will increase a little more before game time.
Biggest key in this game is the protection of Bo Wallace. This is a critical part of every game for every team, but I want to give some reasons why its showing up more this week. The Ole Miss offensive line struggled at times against Central Arkansas giving up 3 sacks. You can argue one or two of those were not the lines fault, but either way a sack is a sack. UTEP had success pressuring Landry Jones of Oklahoma. I think it's fair to say that if UTEP got pressure on Jones with his line they are big eyed when watching film of the Rebels. Bo Wallace is a SEC talent at quarterback. If the line protects him he will make the necessary plays for the Rebels to get a win Saturday.
I have mentioned I was going to do something a little different this week and probably for the rest of the year. I am going to insert a paragraph or two from other people whose football opinion I respect. I will mix this up a lot. This week I am getting the opinion on Ole Miss from and Ole Miss fan and vice versa for MSU. At some point I'm going to get the opinion for Ole Miss from a MSU fan. I had absolutely zero input into what the comments from other people are. I wrote my comments first to make sure I wasn't persuaded one way or another because the people I am going to chose will make some great points.
The comments for Ole Miss this week come from my cousin Tyler Cummins...
UTEP appeared to play Oklahoma a good game until late in the game (2 TDs in the 4th quarter). Seeing that Oklahoma is the #4 team, that's worrisome at first glance. Chris Cummins has a business friend he works with that is a former Oklahoma player. The OU guy said there's absolutely no way that OU should be ranked #4 this year and that the only reason OU is ranked that high is because they're OU (I found it funny that a fan, not to mention a former player, would say that about his own school. I thought outsiders were the only ones allowed to shoot those bullets). So maybe UTEP didn't really play the #4 team a good game, but regardless they still played a good game against a top 15 team. The final score was 24-7. The 7 points UTEP scored came off a turnover. I say that to get to the point that UTEP's offense didn't put any points on the board against OU. Despite that, UTEP's defense surrendered only 24 to OU. Holding a big 12 offense to 24 points is an accomplishment in my book. At this point I'm of the opinion that UTEP has a solid defense but a suspect offense. That's interesting because Ole Miss appears to be in the opposite boat - having a productive offense but a suspect defense. I believe the main reason OM won it's opening game against UCA was due to depth. UCA played OM a very solid game for one half but shortly into the second half OM became the dominant team and UCA appeared to be gassed.
The spread for this game opened at -4. I personally thought this was a low spread at the time. The spread currently sits at Ole Miss -7.5. I anticipate that this spread will increase a little more before game time.
Biggest key in this game is the protection of Bo Wallace. This is a critical part of every game for every team, but I want to give some reasons why its showing up more this week. The Ole Miss offensive line struggled at times against Central Arkansas giving up 3 sacks. You can argue one or two of those were not the lines fault, but either way a sack is a sack. UTEP had success pressuring Landry Jones of Oklahoma. I think it's fair to say that if UTEP got pressure on Jones with his line they are big eyed when watching film of the Rebels. Bo Wallace is a SEC talent at quarterback. If the line protects him he will make the necessary plays for the Rebels to get a win Saturday.
The Ole Miss faithful will know a lot more about this football team about 9 o'clock Saturday night. Nothing I see says either team will run away with this game. I think the offenses will score points. The Rebels pull out the win in a NAIL BITTER. I think a lot of points will go on the board in the second half so get ready for a roller coaster.I have mentioned I was going to do something a little different this week and probably for the rest of the year. I am going to insert a paragraph or two from other people whose football opinion I respect. I will mix this up a lot. This week I am getting the opinion on Ole Miss from and Ole Miss fan and vice versa for MSU. At some point I'm going to get the opinion for Ole Miss from a MSU fan. I had absolutely zero input into what the comments from other people are. I wrote my comments first to make sure I wasn't persuaded one way or another because the people I am going to chose will make some great points.
The comments for Ole Miss this week come from my cousin Tyler Cummins...
UTEP appeared to play Oklahoma a good game until late in the game (2 TDs in the 4th quarter). Seeing that Oklahoma is the #4 team, that's worrisome at first glance. Chris Cummins has a business friend he works with that is a former Oklahoma player. The OU guy said there's absolutely no way that OU should be ranked #4 this year and that the only reason OU is ranked that high is because they're OU (I found it funny that a fan, not to mention a former player, would say that about his own school. I thought outsiders were the only ones allowed to shoot those bullets). So maybe UTEP didn't really play the #4 team a good game, but regardless they still played a good game against a top 15 team. The final score was 24-7. The 7 points UTEP scored came off a turnover. I say that to get to the point that UTEP's offense didn't put any points on the board against OU. Despite that, UTEP's defense surrendered only 24 to OU. Holding a big 12 offense to 24 points is an accomplishment in my book. At this point I'm of the opinion that UTEP has a solid defense but a suspect offense. That's interesting because Ole Miss appears to be in the opposite boat - having a productive offense but a suspect defense. I believe the main reason OM won it's opening game against UCA was due to depth. UCA played OM a very solid game for one half but shortly into the second half OM became the dominant team and UCA appeared to be gassed.
Looking ahead to the weekend... The game depends on what type UTEP team
shows up. If the same team that showed up against OU last weekend shows up this
weekend, this will be a hard fought and worrisome game for rebel fans.
Conversely, if OM jumps out to an early lead this Saturday, I see OM carrying
the momentum throughout the game. This game worries me. OM will have to play
sound football and catch all the breaks to win. UTEP's offense will not be shut
out again and OM's offense will not score 49 against that UTEP defense.
Rebels 27
UTEP 24
The first week went as expected for MSU. Jackson State is not a formidable opponent but MSU looked really good against the Tigers. The Tiger opponent this week comes into Starkville with just a little more talent. At 11 AM on Saturday the Mississippi State Bulldogs will arguably play the biggest game in Dan Mullen's head coaching career. Everything is on the line for MS State this week. If you are a fan of the Bulldogs you need to get up early Saturday and get to Starkville. I truly feel like this game means everything for 2012.
Last year at Auburn the Bulldogs got down early with bad decisions on special teams and penalties that lead to great Auburn field position. The team came back strong and looked like they were on their way to an easy W. Auburn then came back and the rest is history. All that being said.. The Bulldogs have got to get off to a better start in this game than last year.. (First thing they need to do is get out of the tunnel on the field)
If Ms State can get going early the running game and defense have the ability to take over the game. The Bulldogs pounded Auburn on the ground in last year's game. Auburn got exposed on the ground against Clemson, so Dan Mullen and crew have to be game planning to do much of the same. Jackson State dropped several passes over the middle against the Bulldogs that Lutzenkirchen would have hauled in for huge gains/first downs. Lutzenkirchen is the X factor for this entire game. He is a mismatch for basically anyone on the MSU defense. I look for the Bulldogs to jam him off the line with a defensive end. After that they will either cover him man with a hybrid linebacker like Matt Wells or double cover him. The problem with double covering him is you can't double him and Emory Blake at the same time. Time for Banks and Slay to step up and shut Blake down by themselves. Lutzenkirchen will put up stats in this game, but the Bulldog defense must find a way to contain him.
I think these two teams are evenly matched heading into this bloody mary game. Vegas currently has MSU a -3.5 point favorite. The spread for this opened at -2, but it has slowly inched higher. Many early week media predictions had Auburn taking this victory, but as the week goes on the big boys in the media are weighing in with predicitions of MSU winning.
I think the Bulldogs are ready for this one. They have lost heart breakers to the Auburn Tigers the last 2 years. Those heart breakers have been a great motivating tool for this team. I would guess that the name Auburn has been mentioned thousands of times in private with this team. MS State and Mullen are due a break and I think it comes Saturday. Get to this game early and get ready for a good one!
The comments for Mississippi State this week come from the one and only Mr. Austin Owen...
1 yard or 36 inches. Either way you want to describe it,
this was the difference between a win and a loss against Auburn last year. That
doesn’t seem like a lot in terms of distance, but that 1 yard defined our season
and it was only week 2. Ask any Ole Miss fan, and they will be quick to tell
you that we have not beat any SEC West team besides them since Dan Mullen’s
arrival in 2009. Since 2001, Auburn has a record of 10-1 over MSU. MSU’s last
win against Auburn was in 2007, which brings me to my next point. It took Croom
4 years to get our program going in the right direction and finally take us back
to a bowl game, this will be Dan Mullen’s 4th year as the head coach
and all of the pieces seem to be in place to make a run in the SEC
West.
It is definitely a down year for Auburn, but if the past can
predict the future, then MSU will most certainly have a tough game ahead of
them. Auburn played up and coming Clemson this past Saturday, and with a new
Offensive Coordinator they struggled showing an identity early on. They threw
the ball 27 times completing only 11 for 194 yards and rushed 37 for 180 yards
with 2 turnovers. Auburn will have to do a better job on 3rd down
situations, Saturday they were 4-13 in 3 down plays, and 0-1 on 4th
down plays. Auburn will have to protect the ball and control the clock if they
want to win this game, if they can eliminate turnovers they have a legitimate
shot and making the record 11-1 over MSU.
Mississippi State showed that its offense has been tailored
to fit Tyler Russell and we will live and die by how well he plays this year.
The WR’s for MSU have to create separation for Russell to have any success, this
isn’t Jackson State, these are SEC DB’s and they will play man to man. Look for
TE’s Green and Brandon Hill to have a big game, Auburns LB’s are weak compared
to previous teams, if they can get past the LB’s then they should have the
opportunity to make some plays. In the past, most people have said that if a
d-line can create pressure, then the QB will make a mistake. That is true, but
I believe that with the quality of our Secondary this year, Auburns QB will have
to hold onto the ball a little longer than usual waiting for separation to occur
and that will allow our Defensive line that much more time to get pressure on
him.
Going into Mullen’s 4th year as a head coach, look
for him to be more confident in his play calls and the identity of this team.
FINAL SCORE: Auburn – 20 MSU – 27
