Week 7 Analysis/Week 8 Preview

The first BCS rankings of the year came out this week. The top 3 are in line with how I would put them(LSU/Bama/Oklahoma). Once you get past the top 3 you could really draw out of a hat for the next 4 or 5 spots. At this point in the season I agree with the poll having LSU at #1. Both Bama and LSU have looked impressive, but the Tigers have just played a tougher schedule up to this point than Bama. The great thing about this is that the rankings really don't matter because Bama and LSU play each other. Everything will be solved on the field instead of by some pencil pushing sports writers.

As I said last week USM has their biggest game of the year this Saturday against SMU, 7PM on CBS Sports Network. The Golden Eagles came out as 3.5 point favorite in this game. The line currently sits at 3. I don't see this line moving much if any between now and the game. This will be USM's toughest challenge yet. SMU comes into this game at 5-1 with their only loss to Texas A&M the first game of the year. SMU can score points (33rd in nation) and keep their opponents from scoring (23rd in nation). USM is pretty good statistically on both sides of the ball too, Offense (19th) and Defense (38th). Stats are a good indicator of what kind of team you have at this point in the year because every team has played enough games to get a good average. Stats show this being a close game. I'm saying this will be one of the best games of the weekend. If you are a USM fan then GO, but if you are a football fan you should at least watch this game. See what the current best team in MS has to offer.

Things for Ole Miss have gone from bad to worse to terrible. The bad for the Rebels this week, they got hit pretty hard by injuries against Bama. Two starting defensive players were lost for the season from a unit that is already thin at many positions. The worse for the Rebels this week, is that they are pitiful on offense. The Rebels can not run or pass which is shown by them being ranked 117th nationally in total offense. The terrible for the Rebels this week, they play another really good opponent. Arkansas is not Bama, but they are a legitimate top 10 team. Line for this quickly jumped 2.5 points to 17 when it came out. The line currently sits at 16.5. This is a good bet even up to 21. Arkansas will score in the 40s, and I don't see how the Rebels can get to 20 points unless something crazy happens. The Rebels may not get to 4 wins this year. Rebels needs to start figuring out where they are going to get the 6 million+ it will take to fire the staff in Oxford

The only positive for Ole Miss fans right now is that the situation in Starkville is far from good. Every person in the stadium Saturday knew that South Carolina was going to throw the ball to Alshon Jeffery on their last TD. Banks should be covering Jeffery in that situation with help. I see negative after negative on offense when I watch MS State play. The center snaps the ball back to the quaterback in shotgun like a high school center. The ball wabbles back to the qb and half the time it is off target. This is the SEC and that is not acceptable. The center did not even have anyone lined up on him so that excuse is out. The snap should be a spiral quickly back to the qb right in his chest. Many of MSU's plays out of shotgun are timing plays and the pathetic snaps throw everything off. I can't imagine how bad the snaps will be when Bama has someone lined up in the A gap. Bad snaps lead to my next statement about the offense. Ms State had at least 8 wasted plays on offense Saturday. When I say wasted I mean plays that have a fumble/bad snap, a player running the wrong route/direction, etc. Every play is precious and you can't have 10-15% of them wasted. Good news for MSU is that they have an off week followed by games against two opponents that they SHOULD beat. Defense is playing really solid football right now, but the offense has some major problems. The Bulldogs have got to get better on offense in the off week.

A Few notes:

I currently believe USM has the best football team in MS.

Realignment has taken a weird turn.. Boise State going to the Big East?? That makes no sense at all.

The Wisconsin/Mich State game should be a good game, if there is such a thing in the Big 10 anymore. Wisconsin has a high powered offense and Mich State has a top 5 defense. Something has to give in this game. I think it is the Mich State defense.

TCU is a 41 point favorite. I like TCU as a football team/program, but New Mexico must be terrible to get a line this high. A 40+ point spread at this point in the year is typically a good underdog bet.

The World Series starts tonight on Fox. MLB has lost some of its luster in the last few years for several reasons... Extremely long seasons, public knowledge of scandals involving HGH/steroids, and the rise of football popularity to a level no one has seen before. With all that being said both college and pro baseball are providing a quality product on the field right now. Sit down for a little while during this series and watch a little baseball. You won't be disappointed. My pick is for the Rangers to win in 6 games.

Thanks for reading. Please continue to email me any comments or suggestions. I enjoy reading what other people think Wally146@aol.com

Wally

College Football Predictions - MS Teams

Southern Miss (10-2) Best Case Undefeated Worst Case 8-4


Let me start by saying this.. USM has a joke for a schedule. You can’t predicted how all teams will be this year, but their predicted schedule strength is 112 out of 120 teams. They play 9 teams that ended last season with a losing record and one with a .500 record. The only team I see competing with them in the CUSA east is UCF. The game against UCF on November 12 will be the biggest game of the year for USM. You are definitely not a USM fan if you don’t go support your team that game.

I feel like USM will slip up against someone prior to their November 12th game. If I had to make a guess I would say playing Navy on the road will be the loss. The week after Navy they play SMU at home in a game that will be tough, but I think USM will take care of business in that one. I have USM beating UCF in the biggest game of the year on November 12, but I have them losing in a trap game the following week against UAB.

I predict USM will then play the C-USA Championship game at home against Houston. They will win this game and go on to play an SEC team in the Liberty Bowl. USM will then get to see what kind of team they really are. Nonetheless USM will have a season fans should be proud of. 10 plus wins is good no matter what league or division you play in.



Ole Miss (5-7) Best Case 7-5 Worst Case 4-8

Everyone knows about BYU coming to Oxford this weekend. This is an enormous game for Ole Miss. I really don’t know about the outcome of this game because there are so many question marks going into this season for Ole Miss. I want to say they will win because they are a SEC school with size and speed, but BYU has a good team. Vegas currently has BYU as a 3 point favorite. This means Vegas is saying they are a 7-10 point favorite on a neutral site. I will predict this game to be close, and if I had to pick I would say BYU will leave with the win in a nail bitter. After all is said and done this will be one of the best games of the weekend. As I said above this game is a huge game for the Ole Miss coaching staff, players, and the fans. A win here could bring the best case scenario above into play.

Ole Miss will then beat Southern Il, Vandy, Fresno State, Kentucky, and La Tech. The Rebels will compete in almost every SEC game they play this year, but I just don’t see them being talented enough to beat UGA, Bama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, or MSU. However, Ole Miss always gives LSU hell and that probably won’t change this year. I predict MSU to win the Egg Bowl, but that is a game where anything can happen especially if the Rebels or on the best case scenario path.

I have talked about the best case scenario for the Rebels a couple of times in this, but I just don’t see their season heading in the direction of 7 wins. All the questions and a top 20 strength of schedule appear to set up for a rough year in Oxford. With that being said Houston Nutt will be as John Hobson says Gawn. 2 straight losing seasons, 2 straight seasons without a bowl, and worst of all 3 straight losses to the Bulldogs will send Nutt packing. Two rough seasons in a row make the 2 Cotton Bowl victories seem like a decade ago. Who knows if firing Nutt will be the right or wrong decision, but I predict that it will happen.



Mississippi State (8-4) Best Case 10-2 Worst Case 5-7

I have struggled with this prediction for a couple of months now, but I have with my mind and some heart decided to go with MSU ending the season 8-4. The Bulldogs pretty much have 4 non-conference guarantees. Memphis should be improved this year, but I see the Bulldogs beating them by at least 4 TDs. Ms State will probably at some point in the game score TDs on 3 or 4 straight possessions, maybe more. The Bulldogs just have too much size and speed for Memphis to keep this remotely close.

The season for MSU then really begins with a trip to the Plains in a bloody mary game Sept 10. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs. I believe they will beat Auburn just because Auburn has so many question marks with the loss of almost everyone except Dyer. The Bulldogs then have LSU in Starkville on Thursday night. Entering this game with a 2-0 record will make Davis Wade Stadium the place to be. These big time Thursday night games have not been good for Mississippi teams the last decade. Will MSU stop the losing streak to the Bayou Bengals? I really have no idea, but one can only imagine that place if they get a win. I have this game along with Georgia, USC, Bama, and Arkansas as the toss up game for the Bulldogs this year. The bulldogs will win the 4 non conference games, Auburn, UK, and Ole Miss along with one other win against the five other SEC teams on the schedule.

Realistically MSU fans should be happy with an 8-4 season and a second consecutive bowl game. The offseason will be filled with questions of whether Dan Mullen will leave or not. I think the only way he leaves Starkville, is if Ohio State offers him their open job or Joe Pa finally hangs it up and Penn State comes calling.