First thing I want to talk about is how ridiculous top 25 polls are. Florida currently sits outside of the top 25 at around 26 or 27. Florida lost to the best two teams in the country the previous two weeks. They went from being ranked 12th to 26th after losing to the Number 1A and 1B teams in the nation. My argument isn't whether Florida should or shouldn't be ranked. My argument is that if these sports writers felt like Florida was the 12th best team in the nation two weeks ago then how does losing to Bama and LSU make them think they are now the 26th best team. Another note about the top 25 is Michigan is ranked 10th or 11th depending on which poll you look at. This is a joke. Michigan has played no body (Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and ND. I predict it right now... Michigan will have a 9-10 win season. They will then go to a bowl game and play an SEC team that will smash them.
Southern Miss is rolling. I feel like the current bye week comes at a bad time for the Golden Eagles. Bye weeks are tricky situations. When a team is playing good ball a bye week can be a step back. However, if a team is struggling with consistency and injuries a bye week can be a positive. USM does have some players injured, but every team has that this time of year. This week needs to be used to get some fundamentals fixed and some players healthy. Next week USM has a huge game against SMU. SMU is back on the map. The death penalty they received from the NCAA in the mid 80s took them 20+ years to recover from. The biggest game of the year for USM is next Saturday. If you claim to be a USM fan you should go to Hattiesburg and support your team for this game.
Saying Ole Miss has a tough game this week is an understatement. They are basically playing a NFL team in Oxford on Saturday(5PM CT ESPN2). Ole Miss has absolutely no chance in this game. The Alabama defense enters this game only giving up an average of 7 points a game and 37.7 rushing yards. Both of those stats are ranked number 1 in the nation by a long shot. Ole Miss enters the game with the 99th ranked rushing offense at 115.6 yards per game. The Rebels will not be able to get anything going on the ground making them one dimensional on offense. The Bama defense will produce 3+ turnovers and blow the Rebels out. Spread on this game currently sits at Bama -25. Take this bet, because this could be a 5 touchdown game. I don't mean any disrespect to Ole Miss by the above comments. The simple fact is that Bama is just that good.
South Caroline comes to Starkville this weekend for an early kick (11AM CT SEC Network - CBS local). Every game for the remainder of the season is important for MS State because wins become precious this time of year. The early season thoughts of a potential 8 win season are long gone. Bulldogs need to figure out some way to get 3 more wins. It does not matter who they are against. There is potential in the schedule for this to happen, but it will take MSU playing better football. Last week proved there is a quarterback controversy in Starkville. Relf or Russell? Someone that makes a lot more money than I do has to make that decision. MSU may not have won Saturday if it were not for the change at quarterback. This has been a weird year for both MSU and USC. Each of these teams had high expectations for their offenses, but the defenses for both teams has been the better unit up to this point in the season. Spread for this game opened at USC -5. It currently sits at 3 points. I like the Gamecocks in this game at -3, but I will be happy if the Bulldogs pull out a victory.
Few extra comments:
In the way too early to look at category... Bama is a 6.5 point favorite over LSU for their game Nov 5th.
Oklahoma State came out as a 5.5 point favorite over Texas. This line is currently between 7 and 8. I really liked this line at 5.5 - 7. Over 7 makes this a little tougher to say I really like. However I think this is a good bet even if the line gets up around 10. This line is under 10 simply because it is Texas.
Highest line for the weekend is Oklahoma -34 against Kansas. I enjoy looking at the highest line every weekend because typically it is a good underdog bet. This would not be a good underdog bet. Oklahoma will hang 50+ on Kansas.
As always I appreciate you reading this. Email me any thoughts, comments, or ideas because I enjoy hearing people's responses... Wally146@aol.com
Wally
Showing posts with label ncaa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ncaa. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Week 5 Analysis/Week 6 Preview
The thing that once again stood out this past weekend was how dominant Alabama was. The Bama defense knocked out John Brantley a week after they made Bobby Petrino pull Tyler Wilson out of the game because he feared he would get hurt. This Alabama defense has at least 8 players that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft om 2012. They have many others that will be drafted in 2013, 2014, etc.
Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.
Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.
Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.
My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.
Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.
USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.
Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.
Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.
Wally
Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.
Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.
Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.
My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.
Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.
USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.
Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.
Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.
Wally
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