Lineman TD

Lineman TD

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Mississippi State Universty 2013 Football Preview

Mississippi State University Bulldogs



The uncertainty level is at an all-time high for me with Mississippi State heading into 2013.  Most years I know MSU is either going to suck, or they are going to be pretty good.  The Bulldogs second half against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and their performance against Northwestern in the Gator Bowl made me sick.  Those six quarters of football were as bad as any six quarters under Dan Mullen, especially the effort Tyler Russell gave.  Honestly, the entire second half of the season was pretty bad.   The record backs that statement up.
 
The Bulldogs did lose some key players, but they lost key players at skilled positions.  I have always felt that you can fill skill position roles much easier than you can the guys up front.  I think Chad Bumphis was probably as big of a loss as any one single player.  In his 4 years at MSU he was a solid football player for Dan Mullen.   
 
OFFENSE
Almost every media outlet lists Tyler Russell as a key returning player.  The only thing he was key to at the end of the year was the key to losing games.  At times on the sideline he looked like he had no idea where he was at.  In the Gator Bowl he looked like he walked from the bar to the locker room for the game.  The effort the Bulldogs displayed in that game was bad.  Russell’s effort stood out above all others as the worst.  Watching him in that game gave me flashbacks of Mike Henig against LSU.  Henig made Craig Steltz look like a hall of famer, much like Russell made the Northwestern defense look like Alabama.
At times the guy has flashes of absolute brilliance moving the team up and down the field with pin point execution.   Tyler Russell has many positive attributes.  The first is his experience in the line of fire.  He has played a ton of SEC football.  He basically is a second coach on the field at this point.  He has the arm strength to make any throw.  Russell is not a running quarterback, but he is pretty agile at times.  With all that being said he has never once shown me that he has the “IT” factor.  The “IT’ factor means everything for a quarterback and until he shows me he has it he will be the Achilles heel to the offense. 
Skill position is something I really don’t worry about much.  The Bulldogs have a stable of running backs, and they have guys that can catch the ball.  There were some key losses at receiver but as I said earlier I think the skill position guys are the easiest to replace.   I think Malcolm Johnson is the key guy in the category of offensive skill players.  He is a matchup nightmare.  If he stays healthy he is a guy Russell will look for often.
The offensive line returning could be the best offensive line under Mullen.  This group has depth and experience.  A couple of injuries early would deplete the depth fast, but if this unit stays healthy it will be a strong point for this team.  The line is obviously anchored by pre-season all SEC/American selection Gabe Jackson.  He is one of the best offensive linemen in the country.  The guys around him all have experience and talent.  If the line was not so strong I would go ahead and throw MSU to the wolves, but I think this group has the ability to really carry this team in 2013. 
At this point I see no reason why the offense won’t be successful simply because they should have the ability to run the ball against every team they play.  Returning experience up front is critical for the success of an offense and this team has that.  Tyler Russell needs to start off against Oklahoma State good and gain back some confidence.  If Russell gains confidence the Bulldogs will have the opportunity to be a special unit on offense.  This group will be productive against inferior opponents, but I really can’t make a prediction for the offense  against good teams because Tyler Russell is harder to figure out than a game of Pai Gow Poker at the casino. 
 
DEFENSE
This may sound crazy to some with the loss of Banks and Slay, but this side of the ball really excites me.  A good defensive front will make any group of defensive backs look good.  An example I always go back to is the NY Giants.  Their defensive front dominated in their two Super Bowl wins making their linebackers and defensive backs look like All-Pro type guys.  There is experience, depth, talent, youth, etc. returning up front.  Mark it down.. there’s several guys on the Bulldogs front that will play on Sundays.  If the defensive front gets the production it should out of some young guys this unit could be a top 3 defensive line in the SEC.
The linebacker group returns depth.  It has playmakers across the board at linebacker, especially Bernardrick McKinney.    McKinney will become a household name in the SEC over the next 2 years.  This unit does lose leading tackler from last 2 years in Cam Lawrence.  Cam Lawrence was a really good football player, but the guys sitting there waiting to replace him have more upside.  The biggest loss with Cam Lawrence will be in the communication category.  He was the quarterback of the defensive unit the last 2 years.  I look to McKinney to take over this role. 
The back group is obviously a question mark.  Losing 2 guys that will start in the NFL is never a positive.  You don’t just replace guys like Banks and Slay with one guy.  You replace them with a core that becomes stronger.  MSU must get more pressure out of the front four.  Pressure out of the front four will put the secondary in positive situations.
If I was asked what are the 3 biggest keys for the defensive unit in 2013.  I would say pressure, pressure, pressure.  Geoff Collins is now solely in charge of the defensive unit.  At times it looked to me like Chris Wilson was in over his head as defensive coordinator.  Geoff Collins preaches playmaking and being aggressive.  Everywhere Geoff Collins has been the coordinator the defenses have been really good.  The defenses he lead at both Western Carolina and FIU significantly improved in every category under him.   The bulldogs have experience and depth on the defensive line.  As I said earlier this group could be a top 3 defensive line.  This group needs to dominate.  Their dominating play could lead the defense to a top 20 rating in every major statistical category.
SEASON PREDICTION
The Bulldogs have been to 3 straight bowl games.  Expectations have been raised for this team.  At this point I can realistically say most fans would not be happy with a losing record.  A season that ends without post season play is in one word BAD.  The schedule for MSU is not easy, but is there any team in the SEC with an easy schedule?  The answer to that question is no.  Every team will play at least 3 or 4 top 10 teams during the season.  Crying about a tough schedule in the SEC is like crying about the heat in Mississippi during the summer. 
Money talks, so the Bulldogs are going to Houston to open the season against Oklahoma State.  There is no way that MSU or Dan Mullen would agree to this game if major money was not involved.  The matchup against Oklahoma State is a tough one.  Some media outlets have predicted OSU to win the Big 12 this year.  The fast paced offense OSU operates is similar to the offenses MSU really struggled against last year.  If MSU is not ready to play against the fast pace of OSU then I will have to blame the coaching staff.  This was obviously a weakness for the team last year.  Every practice should be used to practice against the up tempo because most of the teams MSU plays this year will be moving quickly. 
You hear me relate back to Vegas a lot because they are experts at creating lines.  The line on this game opened at -13, but currently sits at -12 ½.  I would never realistically predict a 10+ point dog to win a game.  They play the game for a reason because upsets happen.  MSU has the players to beat OSU, but I don’t see it happening.  Losing the opener would not be devastating, but winning it would change the entire outlook going forward.  The Bulldogs better get wins early because the back end of the schedule is tough.
MSU has too much talent on their football team at critical positions to implode this year.  This is a really good football team.  The problem is that they are in a conference with great teams.  I said this earlier, but I want to reiterate it.. the Bulldogs better get wins early because the back end of the schedule is tough.  Right off the top I can check 4 losses off (LSU, USC, A&M, Bama).  Ceiling for the Bulldogs is really 8 wins, but a dream season would have them with an upset. 
Best Case Scenario 9-4 (Not realistic)
Worst Case Scenario 4-8 (This would be a momentum killer for the program) 
My Prediction 6-6 (Bulldogs will have equal or superior talent to at least 7 teams on their schedule)
INTERESTING FACTS
Even though MSU was, so close in baseball this year the University has never won a national championship in any sport, EVER.

First year of football was in 1885.  All-time MSU has a losing record (515-549-39)
Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field is the 2nd oldest on campus stadium behind Georgia Tech’s Bobby Dodd Stadium.  The stadium currently holds 55,082.  Record attendance was set on 11/14/2009 with a crowd of 58,103 against Alabama.  Stadium is currently undergoing a 75 million dollar expansion.  The stadium will look awesome after the expansion/renovation. 
MS State has had 3 consensus All-Americans (38 named All-American by various media outlets)
MS State has won just 1 conference title.  It was in 1941
I didn't mention this in the above blog because I am still holding out faith that Tyler Russell will actually come to play this year.  If you thought about everything I said with Russell you know there is obvious doubt in my mind about him.  I have heard from countless people that Dak Prescott is one of the most respected players on the roster.  He is chomping at the bits to get an opportunity.  If Russell does not perform I feel like Dan Mullen may have to pull a page out of the Old Ball Coach's playbook and yank him.  Steve Spurrier has tried to pull quarterbacks mid play before.  If Russell plays bad on a drive or in a quarter I think Mullen has to pull him.  Maybe not for the season, but at least long enough to wake him up.  I think MSU would have won the Gator Bowl if Prescott had been put in, but they would have lost Russell's confidence forever. 
Thank you to all for reading.  Ole Miss will be next, and the number of readers on the Ole Miss blog almost doubles MSU and USM together.  I hope to make it my best one yet!

 



 

 


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