University of Mississippi 2013 Football Preview

University of Mississippi

Ole Miss Rebels

 

 

First thing I want to hit on, and I want to hit on it hard.  Hugh Freeze should have been NCAA coach of the year in 2012.  There are countless different coach of the year awards.  Hugh Freeze did not receive a single one of them.  Freeze was mentioned in some circles, but he did not receive one award.  In my opinion you should not have to win 10 games to be coach of the year.  Just because Alabama goes undefeated does not mean Saban should be given coach of the year.  I could win 10 games at Bama with the talent they have on their roster.  Coach of the year should not be based on most wins.  It should be what coach improves his team the most.  There is no arguing what Freeze did in 2012. 

I really thought there was no way Ole Miss would ever get to 6 wins in 2012.  I thought that because I had no idea Bo Wallace would play like he did.  As the season went on Wallace turned out to be one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC.  He improved just the same as Tyler Russell fluttered for MSU.  The Rebels having 6 wins and a bowl victory in 2012 was incredible considering the number of question marks they had prior to the season.

My other two preview posts only had 2 paragraphs in this section, but I think Ole Miss needs 3 to touch on their recruiting class.  I am not trying to rain on their parade, but having a top 10 class does not guarantee you 10 wins the following year.  At most 3 or 4 of those players will have an impact on the 2013 season.  The key to making a top 10 class get you to 10 wins is 1) to get those guys in school 2)convince them they are not all world and that they must work 3)keep them on your team.   The real measure of a recruiting class is what they do their sophomore and junior year in college.  Some 5*’s drop off and some 2 and 3 *’s emerge as great players.  Almost half the players selected in the first round of the NFL draft this year were rated 3* or less out of high school.  Ole Miss fans know Patrick Willis very well.  He is one of the best linebackers in NFL.  Willis  was a 2* prospect out of high school.  Ole Miss achieved step one in getting elite players, but the rest of the process is just as hard. 

OFFENSE



I hit on this earlier by talking about Bo Wallace.  It is easy to say the quarterback is the most important player, but he really is the most important person on this team’s roster.  With him Ole Miss has a chance against every team they play.  Without him they win less than 6 games.  Ole Miss has Brunetti behind Wallace, but honestly the only people he scares are the Ole Miss faithful.  Keeping Wallace healthy should be the number one priority for Ole Miss. Bo Wallace possesses the “IT” factor that Tyler Russell has yet to show.     

First step to keeping the quarterback healthy is to have an offensive line that can protect him, and a running game that can take some pressure off of him.   It looks like the offensive line has the potential to be a strong point.  This group returns players with depth and talent.  Just like with MSU this group has 8 or 9 players that should see the field in 2013.  Good depth is needed in the SEC and that is good depth. 

Jeff Scott is back at running back, but this unit as whole really lacks experienced depth.   Scott is the perfect running back for the system Ole Miss runs.  This group needs to get some type of production from a second back.  It sounds crazy because Jeff Scott is a good running back, but overall this unit is the weakest unit on offense.  That is a good sign for the offense.

The group of wide receivers has major talent.  They are led by Donte Moncrief.  I have said from day one that I thought he would play on Sundays.  Moncrief is going to produce.  Sanders will miss the first part of the season with an injury.   Ole Miss must get some production out of all other wide receivers because Moncrief will have 2 guys on him at all times.  He will still produce even when double covered because he is that good, but his numbers will not reflect how good he really is.  Laquon Treadwell is slated to start for the Rebels.  He could be the X-Factor for this offense, especially when he gets on the field with Moncrief and Sanders at the same time. 

You have to really look for weaknesses in the offense heading into 2013.  Having to dig to find possible question marks is a good sign for a team.  This group will be able to score against every team they play.  If you look at the Wallace/Scott/Moncrief combination you will be hard pressed to find a better trio of QB/RB/WR in the country.  The offense ranked 52^nd last year scoring 30 points a game.  I expect this point total to get up around 35 a game this year.  That would put them as a Top 25 offense.  A top 25 offense in the SEC is a REALLY good offense.  

DEFENSE

The defensive unit for Ole Miss in 2012 was a solid group, but they have the most room for improvement going into 2013.  If you compared offense to defense its obvious that the defense has the most room for improvement.  This side of the ball returns 7 starters.  They also have some very talented young players that saw the field in crucial situations last year. 

The number one thing the defensive side of the ball is looking for in 2013 is the depth to allow them to finish.  This team barley missed victories against both A&M and LSU.   The reason they lost those games was simple.  They did not have the depth.  The players were exhausted late in games. 

The front four is probably the most exciting group of players on the Ole Miss roster, even more upside than the group of wide receivers.  This group could be scary good, especially with the addition of younger/bigger brother Nkemdiche.  MSU and Ole Miss have both done excellent jobs building a team on the defensive front.  The defensive line doesn’t get the glory that other positions get but in order to get 9 or 10 wins in the SEC you have to be dominating up front.  This group on defense really has no ceiling heading into 2013.  If everything comes together for the defensive line they could be the best defensive front in the SEC.  That is a strong comment considering you have Bama, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Etc.

The secondary is the biggest question mark of the whole team heading into 2013.  Just like with MSU a dominating defensive line will help this group.  Offenses torched the secondary last year, especially Georgia and Texas.  Almost every team threw for more than 200 yards against Ole Miss in 2012.  This team returns players that saw the field in 2012, but none of them really excelled.  If Ole Miss wants to get to the 10+ win area this will be the group that does it for them.

The defense will be much improved in 2013.  This side of the ball will have the depth to allow it to finish games.  They will have playmakers at every level that will make the big plays.  Ole Miss was ranked 55^th in scoring defense last year.  If all the stars align this group has the potential to be a top 10 defense.  If that happens then there is no telling where the Rebels end up this year.

SEASON PREDICTION

The expectations are high for Ole Miss this year within their athletic department and fan base.  The first thing you do to make a prediction for a team’s season is go through the schedule and give “automatic wins”.  I say “automatic” because nothing is that, but Ole Miss should be 10+ point favorites against these “automatic wins.”  The automatic wins on the schedule are SEMO, Idaho, and Troy.  Honestly Auburn and Missouri should be no real trouble for Ole Miss, so they are in this category.  With 5 wins checked you have to think Ole Miss fans feel confident they will go at least 2 and 1 against Vandy, Arkansas, and MSU. 

We now have Ole Miss with at least 7 wins.  I can’t sit here and predict which one of the next four teams Ole Miss will beat, but I think it happens.  The teams are Texas, Bama, A&M, and LSU.  Ole Miss always plays LSU tough, so you know that game is going to be a coin flip.  Texas, Bama, and A&M look like tough games, but Ole Miss is not a guarantee win for any of those 3 teams.

One of the biggest games of the year for Ole Miss is this Thursday against Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has been a thorn in the side of Rebel fans for an extended period of time now.  The brutal truth is that Vanderbilt is a rival of Ole Miss.  A win Thursday could propel this team to the best case scenario situation.

The schedule for the Rebels is really the opposite of MSU.  Early season struggles are not the end of the world.  The back end of the schedule is really easy for Ole Miss.  Keep your heads up if the Rebels struggle early because if the Rebels end September 2-2 the best case scenario really could come into play.

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 5-7 (It would take something devastating for the Rebels to not go bowling in 2013)

My Predition: 9-3 ( I have a hard time picking Ole Miss to get to the 10 win point because games against Texas, Bama, A&M, and LSU are just games I can’t realistically pick Ole Miss in.  I think the Rebels will win all the games they are supposed to this year and have one upset.  9-3 and another trip to the Cotton Bowl is a damn good second season for Hugh Freeze. 

INTERESTING FACTS

Ole Miss has claimed national titles in 1959, 1960, and 1962.  This was prior to the current system.  Several teams claimed titles in those 3 years.  Either way if you can claim a title you must have been really good.

 First season of football for Ole Miss was in 1890.  The Rebels have gone 628-492-35.  That is a 56% winning percentage.

 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium was built in 1915.  Current capacity is 60,580.  Largest crowd ever was 62,663 against Alabama on October 10, 2009.  Stadium is named after legendary coach Johnny Vaught and Judge William Hemingway. 

Ole Miss has won 6 conference titles.  The most recent title was in 1963.

Ole Miss has had 11 consensus All-Americans. 

In 1904 Ole Miss defeated Union College 114-0.

Thank you to everyone for reading the blog.  Football season is here.  I wish every team the best of luck.