Mississippi State Preview/Prediction 2017

MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY

Dan Mullen is entering his 9th season as head coach at MSU.  That's really crazy to think about.  If you listened to the click bait websites like Saturday Down South or SEC Country he would be on at least his 5^th job by now.  Whether or not he was searching is irrelevant because he is still the coach at MSU, and he is a pretty dang good one.  Mullen is on pace to go down as the best coach in the history of the football program.  Bowl games, winning records, record setting players, Number 1, etc.  You name it and he has probably done it already at MSU.  It appears to me that he's really just hitting his stride as a head football coach.

Everyone knew last year would be a tough year because of the shadow Dak Prescott left when he graduated.  Dak will forever be a legend in Starkville, and it looks like he may end up being one in Dallas too. Dak leaving wasn't the only question mark.  The entire defensive coaching staff was new.  There were leadership questions all over the team.  Looking back on my prediction from last year I was obviously wearing my fan hat.  I have tried to step back and look at this team with a more unbiased opinion.  I've tried to find the positives and negatives.

Offense

Some media and fans have Nick Fitzgerald going to New York in December.  I'm not nearly that high on him because he has yet to show he can consistently throw the ball accurately.  He only completed 54% of his passes last year with a 2-1 TD/INT rate.  I watched him throw 5 picks in spring game in the first half.  Those are things from the past and a spring game is certainly nothing to base predictions on, but they have to be considered.  All that being said, this guy has unbelievable intangibles.  Big, fast, strong, rocket arm, vision in the running game, etc... This guy has the stuff you can't coach.  If Mullen can improve his passing accuracy and decision making then this guy could be everything some media are saying. 

Fitz is going to be helped big time by a stable of running backs.  The bulldogs are loaded with talent there starting with Aeris Williams.  Fitzgerald is also going to help himself in the passing game because teams are going to have to account for him running the ball on every play.  Fitz and Williams and possibly a 3^rd back in the backfield will be virtually impossible for any defense to defend.  The running game will be helped by an offensive line that will be much improved.  MS State should be able to run the bill at will against almost any team they play.

As deep as Ole Miss is at receiver MSU is equally not.  I'm worried about this group being able to both get open and to be able to catch the ball.  Someone has to emerge that can catch the ball other than Donald Gray.  This may come from a wide receiver or two or from the tight end position.  Mullen is saying he is going to expand the usage of the tight ends this year.  If he does that, those guys could fill a void left by the lack of wide receivers.  Everyone running routes will benefit from the run game that will be strong.

In 2016, MSU was 44^th in total offense and 56^th in scoring offense.  The only major weapon on offense gone is Fred Ross.  If Fitz can get some consistency in the passing game this group could be top 25 in offense.  It would take scoring 4-6 more points per game to get in top 25.  

Defense

Todd Grantham is a major upgrade from Peter Sirmon.  I have no idea how Mullen pulled this hire off, but he did and MS State fans should be happy.  The defense immediately got better with this hire.  The pathetic play from last year certainly wasn't all on Sirmon, but I think him and an entirely new staff were out coached many weeks.     

The defense is talented.  Simmons, Lewis, and McLaurin are players any coach would love to take the field with.  There is a really solid core at every level of the defense.  The other guys are the ones that will have to step up and play like they were recruited to play.  Guys likes Fletcher Adams, Montez Sweat, Gerri Green, Brandon Bryant, and Jamal Peters.. need to play up to their ability.  These guys along with many others have the skill, but none have played up to their ability yet.  

The defense looked like they didn't care on many possessions last year.  The effort was pathetic on many plays and drives.  That falls on coaching and leadership.  You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don’t bring it in college football you will get rolled.  The defense could be much improved if they just play with passion and effort this year.  

The defense was 110^th in total defense and 93^rd in scoring defense last year.  Just like with Ole Miss many of the same players return with new coaches especially at the top.  This side of the ball is one that really intrigues me and is the one that will decide which direction this season goes.

It is funny that over the years I have been watching football I would say MS State and Ole Miss perennially were better on defense than offense.  That has certainly changed over the last few years.  These teams have and will put up points older fans never would have imagined.

Special teams

Who knows about this category when it comes to kicking field goals.  All units of special teams will be really good except field goal kicking.  Talk out of Mullen and media is that there are several quality options to kick field goals, but we have heard that before.  It's anybody's guess how the field goal kicking will go.  I'm not optimistic at really any yardage... outside 40 I have little to no faith in the kicking going into the season.

Prediction

Vegas has the O/U at 5.5 but it is at -155 for over and +125 for the under.  Based on that this line should be at 6.5.  At 6.5 the odds would be close to -110.  I have really struggled with this win/loss prediction.  I have thought all numbers from 6 to 9 wins.  There are so many positives heading into the season, but I have a lot of question marks.  I think this team has the players to answer many questions, but I’m going to have to see it from them.

You will know all you need to know about this team by the end of September.  The schedule tosses them right into the fire with LSU at home then back to back road games to Georgia and Auburn.  There is a stretch in the middle where MS State should string together some wins.  By the time November gets here it is anybody’s guess.

Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

Best Case Scenario 10-2:  It would take a special season out of Fitzgerald and a defense that is top 25 to produce this outcome.  This really is a pipe dream.

Worst Case 5-7:  Another 5-7 season would be extremely disappointing for MS State fans.  It’s hard for me to see any scenario where this happens.  If would take MS State losing multiple games at the end like they did in 2016. 

Ole Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

University of Mississippi

No one thought in early July that Ole Miss would be entering the 2017 season with Matt Luke as the head coach.  Everyone reading this knows all about the drama that’s been going on in Oxford, so I’m not going to rehash all that out.  This a 2017 season preview not another bashing of Ole Miss or Freeze. 

Just like with Hopson at USM, Matt Luke is a Mississippi guy.  In fact, I would say Ole Miss is probably his dream job.  I don’t think he ever could have envisioned his dream job starting the way it has, but here he is leading the Rebels into the 2017 season.  Luke has been at Ole Miss since 2012, but he has zero head coaching experience.  From what I can tell no one on the Ole Miss coaching staff has ever had any head coaching experience.  In a league and division where there are established, experienced head coaches the coaching situation at Ole Miss is definitely something in question heading into the season.     

Offense

Losing Hugh Freeze is a major blow to the offensive side of the ball because even with all his many flaws he was a really good offensive coach.  Freeze had said he was going to let Longo call plays, but I didn’t really believe that.  Now it is definitely all on Longo.  Longo knows offense and knows how to call plays, but at this point in his career he just isn’t on the same level as Freeze was.  One thing Longo and Luke have going for them is that they have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

On paper it may look like the Rebels lost a lot with Kelly, Engram, Stringfellow, and Adeboyejo all gone, but they return a lot of play makers starting with Patterson.  Considering the situation Patterson played extremely well to finish the season in 2016.  The offensive unit will go as Patterson goes, and the sky really is the limit for him.  It’s not just Patterson though.  The Rebels may be as deep/talented at receiver as anyone in the SEC.  The Rebels will look to lean on the passing game, but the running game should be more successful.  The offensive line returns 7 or 8 from last year including 4 upper classmen.  Wilkins also returns to the team at running back.  I see a lot of positives and very few negatives coming from the offensive side of the ball for this team.

In 2016, Ole Miss was 26^th in total offense (yards) and 42^nd in scoring offense.  Those numbers need to be better in 2017 if this teams wants to have any chance of having a winning season.  I see the numbers improving and the offense being fun to watch, but will it be enough to carry this team?

Defense

This is the side of the ball that killed Ole Miss last year.  This unit was bad, really bad.  New defensive coordinator, Wesley McGriff, has his hands full because I see a unit that is limited heading into 2017.  Defense has some talented players up front in Haynes, Speaks, and Jones, but they are severely limited when it comes to depth at every level of the defense.  The front line guys are good enough, but in the SEC West you have to have depth, especially up front.

The weakest grouping on defense is far and away the linebackers.  I thought Ole Miss had the worst group of linebackers in the SEC last year.  Many guys are coming back, but I’m not very optimistic about them.  There is skill and depth at defensive back, but they are unproven.  More question marks…

In 2016, the defense was ranked 111^th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense.  Those numbers are a long way from the “Land Shark Defenses” from a few years ago.  This unit needs some guys to really step up, and they need the entire defense to remain somewhat healthy throughout the course of the year.  As good as I feel about Ole Miss on offense I feel equally bad about them on defense.

    

Special Teams

This is something I feel like Ole Miss can be confident in heading into the season.   Wunderlich was almost automatic last year.  He can handle all kicking duties if necessary, but Ole Miss has Gleason too.  Special teams could swing a game for the Rebels.

Prediction

Vegas has Ole Miss at over/under 5.5 wins.  It’s showing Over -135 and Under +105 which means they are leaning toward the over and this line could be 6.  I could see Ole Miss coming out of the gate hot with a 3-0 start.  Momentum will build in their bye week, but that will quickly be erased with six straight SEC games starting with trips to Bama and Auburn.  Those two road games, back to back, are brutal. How the Rebels play after those games is unknown, but I see the lack of defensive depth to start to take its toll in the middle of the season. 

The Rebels and the Saints will be similar to watch middle/late in the season with both scoring a lot of points, but not being able to stop anyone.  If you watch one on Saturday and the other on Sunday it may at times feel like you are watching the same game.  At times the games may look more like a track meet than a football game.

Most of the offseason I was leaning toward 5 wins, but I have settled on 6 wins.  You would think that number would have been lower with Hugh Freeze being gone, but I think the offensive side of the ball is talented enough to steal a game or two for Ole Miss this season in a shootout.  I could see Ole Miss play in a game this year where the total points is close to 100.

Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  

Best Case Scenario 8-4:  If this team can sustain the us vs the world mentality, gets many breaks, and stays healthy this best case scenario would come into play.  A lot of things would have to align for this to happen.

Worst Case Scenario 3-9:  It would take absolute disaster starting with a loss at Cal for this to happen.  A loss at Cal could really derail this team.  With everything going on off the field disaster is certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t see this happening.

Southern Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Prior to writing this I knew very little about USM head coach Jay Hopson.  I have heard his name mentioned countless times over the last few years in a positive light, but knew nothing beyond that.  I decided to go do a little research.  Hopson is a Mississippian..  Born in Mississippi, played defensive back at Ole Miss, has coached most of his career in the state of Mississippi, etc.  Hopson came to USM from Alcorn State.  Prior to him being hired at Alcorn State they were not very good, and that's probably being nice.  He completely turned their football program around and led them to back to back SWAC championships and a Black College National Championship.  If you win championships at any level of college sports you are a good coach.

USM returns 6 starters on offense.  Returning starters are almost all skilled position players including two of the best players in C-USA, Ito Smith (RB) and Allenzae Staggers (WR).   USM better be glad they have 2 quality, experienced players at those positions because quarterback and offensive line are major question marks.  The QB position might be a revolving door with Keon Howard, Kwadra Griggs, and true freshman Marcelo Rodriguez all battling for snaps.  As I am posting this USM has not settled on a starting quarterback.  It appears Howard and Griggs are the front runners, but Rodriquez has gained some attention.    Offensive line returns just 2 starters.  I believe USM will rely heavily on Smith because he is obviously very talented, and it’s just easier for an unproven offensive line to run block compared to pass blocking.  

The USM defense from last year is something I am having a very hard time wrapping my head around.  They were 15^th in the nation in total defense (yards allowed), but they were 74^th in scoring defense.  Those numbers do not make sense.  I didn’t watch enough USM games to know what happened, but it appears they either gave up a lot of special teams touchdowns or the offense turned the ball over in bad spots.  USM doesn’t return a lot of starters(4-5), but all projected starters are upper classmen.  That means there is obviously some experience there.  This is a very good thing heading into the season.  Hopson knows defense.  This unit has potential to be good.  If USM can get their scoring defense in 2017 in line with their total defense from 2016 then this side of the ball could carry the team.  

Special teams appear to be something the Golden Eagles are pretty comfortable with heading into this year.  Parker Shaunfield was very consistent as a sophomore making 12 of 14 field goals.  There is talk that Shaunfield may be taking on all kicking responsibilities.  Special teams look like they are going to be something USM has an advantage at in most games.

Turnover margin is one of the most important things in football.  Over the course of a year teams with a positive number normally have a positive record and vice versa.  In 2016, USM was 125^th out of 128 teams in this category.  USM was -17 on the year.  The defense has some blame for this, but most of the blame lies on the offense.  They turned the ball over WAY too much.  They turned the ball over 32 times in 13 games.  That is horrible.  Protecting the ball is something the USM coaching staff had to be pounding away at in camp.  The starting quaterback position could end up going to the guy that protects the ball the best.  

Vegas books have given USM an O/U of 7 wins.  There are a lot of people out there predicting USM to beat Kentucky in the season opener.  I don’t see that happening because 1. USM beat them last year 2.  USM has a lot of question marks heading into the first game starting with QB 3.  Kentucky has more talent.  USM beating Kentucky would surprise me.  I was leaning toward 8 wins for the season, but I am going with 7-5.  Going with Vegas is a safe pick, but that’s how I see it.

Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.

Best Case Scenario 9-3: This best case would start with a win in the opener against Kentucky.  This would set USM up for a conference championship and a pretty good bowl game, but with the good may come the bad because Hopson would probably be courted for a bigger job.

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  For this to come into play it would take horrible play out of the quarterback position with many turnovers in bad spots.   

 

I hope by reading this you get something out of it that will make you a better football fan.   Tomorrow I will post about Ole Miss then MS State on Thursday.  The Ole Miss and Mississippi State posts will probably be a longer and more detailed.  Please feel free to share this.  Thanks!