Ole Miss 2018

This football team will be very interesting to watch this year.  At times they are going to be super exciting for Ole Miss fans, but at other times they might be one of the most frustrating teams in the country.  The offense will be explosive and dynamic, but the defense will definitely be one of the worst in the conference (possibly the worst).  I would have liked to have been able to watch a scrimmage this fall because I know the offense had to roast the defense on the regular.

I feel like the schedule is not very favorable to the Rebels this year.  Their most winnable games are mostly on the road including their opener against Texas Tech.  I know that’s not technically a road game, but it is not at home. 

Coaching

Major credit should be given to Matt Luke and crew for the job they did in 2017.  They had all the chips stacked against them and ended up with a 6-6 record.  With mixed opinions Luke was named the full-time head coach.  I personally feel like that was the right decision considering the circumstances surrounding the program and the job he did on the field in 2017.

During the off season Luke has grown on me even more.  Freeze was so polarizing.  I don't think Luke would have done it any other way, but his only option was to lay low and just be a football coach.  I have no doubt that his players absolutely love him and that means so much when you are dealing with 18-22 year olds. 

If you have been living under a rock and have not heard the name Phil Longo you need to remember it.  From what I can tell Luke has made a great decision and basically turned the entire offense over to him.  He is a star in the making in the coaching profession.  I see no reason why he won't be a head coach in FBS.  It may be sooner than later after the ridiculous numbers they are going to produce this year.

Offense

This side of the ball will be explosive, to say the least.  8 of the 11 starters return from the 2017 team that was 21st in yards per game with 455 and 37th in points per game with 31.7.  The offensive line will be a really strong position group with a ton of experience, talent, and even depth.  I love teams that are strong up front because you win football games with the guys up front.  The skill players get all the accolades, but the big guys are where you win.

The passing game will be crazy good and probably will improve on the 314 yards per game in 2017 that gave them a ranking of 12th nationally.  Longo comes from the Mike Leach “Air Raid” coaching tree.  The offenses they put on the field regularly put up video game like numbers, especially in the passing game.  Combine that type of coaching with an unbelievable group of wide receivers and you have the makings of something special.  As good as I think the MS State defensive line is I think this receiving group is just as talented.  I could see Ole Miss gaining close to 5,000 yards in the air this year. 

 

The top rusher for Ole Miss in 2017 was Jordan Wilkins.  He currently is in the running to be the starter for the Colts this year.  Almost all the rushing production left with him, but I do not believe the cupboard is empty.  For starters, Ta'amu can run the ball.  You then have a talented JUCO transfer in Phillips and Eric Swinney.  Swinney has been unable to stay healthy, so there is some doubt with him(Swinney is currently out for at least 3 weeks with Mono).   I feel like it will be more of a running game by committee for the Rebels, but I think the production will be there.  It may have to be manufactured at times by using short passes, but there will be enough to support the dynamic passing attack.  If I were an Ole Miss fan I would feel very confident in your offense even with the question marks at running back.  

Defense

As good as the offensive side of the ball could be in 2018 the defense might be equally as bad.  Coaches are high on the starters especially Josiah Coatney, but no one knows what they have after the first group.  The defense is looking for Benito Jones to step up in a major way along with some others who can either stop the run or rush the passer.

The news gets bad when you get to the linebackers.  This is going to be the worst group on the team in 2018.  Ole Miss will be relying heavily on some young guys including multiple freshman.  This group must find some starters that can tackle, and they must stay healthy.  If both of those don't happen this defense will struggle mightily.  The Ole Miss defense ranked 125th against the run last year giving up 248 yards per game.  If someone doesn't emerge to stop the run in this group they will be right back at the bottom. 

The secondary looks like it will be the best position group on the defense, and it really doesn't appear to be close.  From what I can tell they have 8 players with experience.  There is talent on the back end.  I could see a few of these guys getting a shot at the NFL.  The secondary will be a bright spot on a defense that will really be looking for one.   

The defense for Ole Miss was ranked 117th giving up 471 yards per game and 112th giving up 35.6 points per game in 2017.  They lost several of their best players from last year.  It's hard to see them getting worse because the group was already at the bottom, but it's just as hard to really see much improvement coming from this side of the ball.  The defense was 13th in the SEC in 2017.  If they stay healthy they could jump to 12th, but I see them probably falling to last in the SEC in 2018.

Prediction

In 2017, I picked Ole Miss to go 6-6, and Matt Luke to be named the head football coach.  I thought they would do that without winning the Egg Bowl.  Vegas has them at 6 over/under for 2018.

Pick 6-6:  This is kind of the safe pick because siding with Vegas is pretty easy because they are fantastic at what they do.  I have no faith in this defense, but I have so much in the offense.  The offense will win a couple of shoot outs to get them to 6 wins.

Best Case 8-4: It would take drastic improvement from the defense to get here.  The defense would have to stay almost perfectly healthy and some of the young guys will have to emerge as play makers.

Worst Case 4-8:  If this team gets hit with some injuries early they would be underdogs in every SEC game they play this year.     

Mississippi State 2018 Preview

The more I look into this MS State football team the more excited I get.  As a fan, I have tried to temper my expectations because I am 100% aware of how difficult the SEC and the SEC West are every year.   With all that in mind this football team is pretty loaded.  They return almost everyone from their 2 and 3 deep (I would argue that they are gaining more from redshirts/freshman than they lost from 2017 team).  All of these players return from a team that won 8 regular season games and beat Louisville in their bowl game with half of a coaching staff and a freshman quarterback.  Look at the MS State roster and you see SR/JR at almost every position with pretty significant past production.  Phil Steele has MS State at #5 on his experience returning chart.    

Coaching

The elephant in the room for this football program heading into the 2018 season is the coaching staff.  Dan Mullen was great at MS State going 69-46 in his 9 years in Starkville.  He did things that many people thought would never be possible.  He raised the expectations in Starkville to an unprecedented level.  He boomed economic development both in the city and on the campus.  Some didn’t like Mullen, but at the end of the day he did a fantastic job at MS State.  After the dust settles he will forever be one of the greatest coaches in program history.  Dan jetted to Florida with Scott Stricklin, and after a very quick and efficient coaching search by John Cohen the Joe Moorhead era at MS State officially began on November 28, 2017.

Time will obviously tell about Moorhead, but every single person who has ever covered him, played for him, coached with him, etc. raves about him as a football coach, motivator, and leader.  UCONN won with him.  Fordham won with him.  He completely changed the trajectory of the Penn State offense when James Franklin hired him.  Many even go as far as to credit him with saving James Franklin’s job.  I personally think that is a bit of a stretch, but it has been said by multiple people.  The offense at PSU the last few years has been dynamic.  In 2017, they were ranked 18th in yards per game with 460 and 6th in points per game with 41.1.  Those are both strong stats against good defenses in the Big 10. 

The one thing I will say I have seen from Moorhead is that he has hired an extremely talented and/or experienced group of coaches.  Mark Hudspeth and Joey Jones both have head coaching experience in FBS.  Charles Huff is considered by many as one of the top young assistants in the country.  You can go down the list and every coach either has great experience/success or has been pegged by many as a future star.  Like I said above time will tell, but this staff looks solid. 

Offense

The Bulldogs were a power running team last year, and they were extremely successful at it.  They ranked 12th nationally in rushing yards per game with 249.   Every person that created that running game success returns in 2017 including an offensive line that returns 5 guys that started a game last year.   The Bulldogs will be able to run the ball against any team they play with 4-6 different people.

What this team must have to reach the next level in 2018 is some form of a reliable passing game.  As good as this team ran the ball they were equally as bad at passing it.  They averaged 158 yards per game which put them at 116th nationally.  The passing game was not very good against average opponents, and it pretty much was nonexistent against quality SEC teams.  You can not be one dimensional against good SEC defenses.  If the offense can have a few reliable receiving options emerge this could be a ridiculously explosive offense even against quality SEC defenses.

Question marks for this side of the ball are obviously the passing game and depth on the line.  Talk out of camp has been that both of these are trending positive.  I did not mention Fitzgerald's health because I have seen absolutely nothing that doesn't show him being 100%.  I also didn't mention the suspension because I think that will not impact the season at all.  It may impact Fitz's future and his NFL draft position, but he could play past that if he has a great year.  The 2017 team was 52nd in yards per game with 407 and 42nd in points per game with 30.6.  Moorhead has a proven track record of proficient offenses.  I see no reason why this team can't be better on this side of the ball in 2018. 

Defense

This defensive line is the best to ever roll onto the field in all the years I have been watching MS State football.  They have the chance to be the best in the SEC.  When you have the chance to be the best in the SEC you are certainly in consideration for best in the country.  The defensive front can go 3 deep with very little drop off at every single position.  This defensive line group could have 6 guys make NFL rosters one day.  This defensive line is going to destroy a lot of offensive game plans.    

This defense is not a one trick pony though.  They have players at linebacker and in the secondary.  Anytime you have 2 senior safeties you have to feel confident in their ability to lead and make plays. McLaurin has been given the preseason honors, but some have Johnathan Abram as a possible first rounder in the NFL draft.  Those second level players are going to benefit from a defensive line that is going to absolutely wreak havoc against opposing lines.

16 of the top 20 tacklers return from the 2017 team that was 13th nationally in yards per game allowed with 329 and 31st in points allowed with 22.7.  If you made me choose a spot of weakness on defense it would be small question marks at cornerback and depth at linebacker and the secondary.  I’m telling you that those are very small question marks.  I see this defensive being top 10 in the country.

Prediction

In 2017, I predicted MS State to go 7-5 while Vegas had the O/U at 5.5-6.5.  As stated earlier they went 8-4.  Vegas has set the line at 8.5 for this football team.

 

Pick 9-3:  As bad as I wanted to go with 10-2 I know how tough the SEC is, and I know how tough the Egg Bowl is.  I think the Bulldogs will go into the Egg Bowl with a record of 9-2.

Best Case 11-1:  This football team has a ton to be optimistic about in 2018.  I am not being a homer when I say I would not be surprised if this team goes 11-1, and you see MS State in Atlanta.

Worst Case 7-5:  This team has too much talent, experience, depth, etc. to go below 7 wins.  It would take a slew of injuries and some bone headed moves by the coaching staff to get below 7 wins. 

Southern Miss 2018 Preview

In 2017, I made a commitment to really research each of these teams I am writing about instead of just throwing out stuff that I thought.  I feel like it paid off last year, and that it will again this year.  My knowledge of each team, not just MS State, during the season was a lot better.  In 2017, I picked USM 7-5 (they went 8-4), Ole Miss 6-6 (they went 6-6), and MS State 7-5 (they went 8-4).  I obviously wouldn't bring this up if I had drastically missed those, but I feel like missing 2 by 1 game and getting Ole Miss correct was pretty good picking on my part.

Here are the predictions from each from 2017.  The only thing I was really wrong about was MS State and the Egg Bowl.
Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.
Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  
Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

I, like probably anyone reading this, am super excited for another fall of football!  You literally have hundreds of ways you can read about your football teams.  Some sources are excellent, but some are absolutely pathetic.  I appreciate anyone taking the time to read this, and I really do hope you get something useful out of this.  I hope all of you are safe in your travels to and from games.  I think this will be a fun year.    With that being said here we go....

Going into the 2018 campaign USM returns as little experience as almost any team in FBS.  The Golden Eagles only return 4 starters on each side of the ball.  This team lost a ton of production from the 2017 team on the offensive side of the ball.  The offensive line is where a bulk of the returning starters on offense are and if you are looking for a positive that is certainly one.  I have always believed that it is much easier to throw a younger skill player into the fire than it is an offensive lineman.  In 2017, USM returned a lot of skill players but few linemen.  This year is the direct opposite of last year.    Prior to Griggs being kicked off the team Phil Steele had them at #108 on experience chart.  I would think the loss of Griggs puts them in the 120s.  

   

Southern Miss thought they had an abundance of quarterbacks heading into spring, but that isn’t the case anymore.  Keon Howard transferred to Tulane this summer, and Kwadra Griggs was suspended from the team during fall training camp.  It appears that Jack Abraham will get the nod on opening day against Jackson St, but that position could be another revolving door much like it was in 2017.  Along with replacing their quarterbacks they will have to replace their top rusher and their top 4 receivers from 2017.  Southern Miss won’t be going to freshmen to replace all that production, but none of the guys stepping into starting roles have really produced anything at USM.  The 2017 team was ranked 42nd in yards per game with 420 and 66th in points per game with 27.8.  This side of the ball has so many more question marks than answers heading into 2018.  I really don't see how the offensive production can be better in 2018 than it was in 2017.

The defensive side of the ball comes into the season with almost as many question marks as the offense.  A bright spot for this unit is the linebacking corps.  This group is talented.  They have a shot at being the best in Conference USA, but around them are a lot of unknowns.  The secondary could be the weakest position unit on the entire team going into 2017.  They lost pretty much everyone on the back end.  This defense has both experience and depth questions which are both obviously not ideal.  The 2017 team ranked 24th in total yards allowed at 348 per game and 55th in points per game allowed with 26.5.  Jay Hopson is a defensive coach by trade, but I don’t see how this group won’t also go backwards compared to the 2017 team.    

It felt like I just blasted USM, but with all the unknowns and all the question marks I still have a ton of faith in their head coach Jay Hopson.  I think he is a really good coach that has been a winner everywhere he has been.  I feel like he will figure out how to get the most out of his players and get USM to another bowl game. 

Predictions

In 2017, I almost predicted USM to have 8 wins, but I landed on a prediction of 7-5 which is exactly what Vegas had predicted.  They hit the over with an 8-4 regular season.  They got hammered by Florida State in their bowl.  This year Vegas has a line of 6.5 for the Golden Eagles.

Pick 6-6:  USM has one of the easiest schedules in FBS, but with so many question marks I see USM losing all the obvious games and some they probably should win.  This team benefited from some close wins last year.  Take those off and they are sitting at 6 wins.

Best Case Scenario 8-4: If Jack Abraham or Marcelo Rodriquez can emerge as a playmaker at quarterback all the chips could fall into place for this team to reach 8-4. 

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  It would take abysmal quarterback play for this to happen.

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