USM 2012 Football Preview

USM 2012 hype video

University of Southern Mississippi 2012 Football Preview 

Most people that read this blog will read the other prediction blogs, so I will say this just one time.  Preseason predictions are almost impossible because of the large number of unknowns heading into a new football season.  The unknowns are part of what makes the anticipation so great.  If I knew these predictions were going to all be spot on I would be on an airplane to Las Vegas right now.  With all that being said… here we go!

The 2012 USM team heads into the season with new people in important positions. The most obvious is new head football coach Ellis Johnson.   I was/am a fan of this hire by USM. Ellis Johnson was the sole reason why Sylvester Croom ever went to a bowl game at MSU. He will do a great job leading the football program at USM. The only possible negative I can see in the hire of Johnson is his age (60 years old).

The departure of long term QB (Austin Davis) leaves another new situation in Hattiesburg at quarterback. It is going to be weird for me not seeing Davis at QB because it feels like he has been the QB there for 10 years. It looks like redshirt junior Chris Campbell is getting the nod at QB Saturday against Nebraska. No matter who is the starting QB for USM they will benefit from a solid offensive line (4 potential seniors starting) and good defense under Johnson & Tommy West.  I look for USM to rely on their running game and defense this season, especially early.

I have seen a couple of different comments from Nebraska that say "Respect your opponent". I believe this rallying cry is directly pointed at USM. The current line on this game has Nebraska favored by 19-20.5 points. The line came out at 17.5 so the public has been on Nebraska early. USM winning in Lincoln would be a major upset. I would not be shocked by a close game, but the QB situation is going to be a tough mountain for this team to get over playing at Nebraska. That comment is no indication as to how well the overall season will be for the quarterbacks at USM. The fact is playing at Nebraska in your first start is a tough draw.

All is not lost with an opening season loss to Nebraska because one positive in playing Nebraska early is that every opponent following that game will have less talent. Second week of the year is an open date for USM. This will give them a chance to regroup for a strong push through the rest of their 2012 season.  Normally I am not a fan of early season open weeks, but this may serve well for USM with the unsettled QB situation.

USM has 2 really fun home games this year on back to back weekends. The two games are Louisville and Boise State. Louisville was once a heated rival of USM. Boise State has recently been a national powerhouse.  If USM can take wins from both of these teams the best case scenario definitely starts to look like a possibility.   

Best case scenario for USM (10-2)

Worst case scenario for USM (7-5)

Prediction for 2012 Season (8-4) I swayed back and forth between 8 and 9 wins for this, but I finally decided on 8 wins because USM slips up and loses to an inferior team every year.  USM would have been in a BCS bowl game last year if they had not dropped the ball against UAB.  Vegas will have USM favored in 9 or 10 of their games.  A couple of those games will almost be picks with lines of less than 3.

Fun fact about USM: The incoming freshman students at USM are all around 18 years old. It has been 18 years since there has been a losing season in Hattiesburg, so the current freshman class has never seen USM have a losing season. 

Head Coach: Ellis Johnson

Defensive Coordinator: Tommy West

Offensive Coordinator: Steve Buckley

Returning Starters: (Offense 6, Defense 4, Specialist 2)

Returning Letterwinners: (Offense 22, Defense 18, Specialist 2)

Letterwinners Lost: (Offense 7, Defense 13, Specialisty 3)

2012 Football Schedule

Ole Miss

What happened to this football program last year?  The Rebels only won 2 games in 2011.  That is far worse than I ever could have predicted.  The team quit, the coaches quit, and the administration quit.  Last year was just a bad deal all around in what I consider one of the worst, if not the worst, football seasons in the history of the university.  With all that being said 2012 is a new year, and a lot has changed in Oxford.

It did not take the search committee long to find a new coach.  As everyone already knows that coach was Hugh Freeze.  Only time will tell if this hire was a good one or not.   Hugh Freeze better be a really good football coach because he has entered into a tough situation.  Houston Nutt was running a circus of a football program.  There was zero discipline on or off the field the last 2 years at Ole Miss.

The question marks about the team entering the 2012 season are endless.  The Rebels do not even have a full roster heading into this season because of academic and discipline issues left behind by Houston Nutt.  The academic issues are still not settled, and the Rebels could lose more players before the season starts.  The negatives far exceed the positives heading into the 2012 season, but that is not necessarily a bad thing in this situation. With expectations low the fan base is expecting nothing from the Rebels this year.  

Hugh Freeze has never done anything but win as a head coach.  The levels he was coaching at in no way compare to the SEC, but a winner is a winner.  How will a man who has only won handle the adversity of losing this year?  I am not predicting a win total yet for the Rebels, but 5 wins would be a successful season.  I see several potential blow outs on the schedule this year.  Hugh Freeze has a lot of gloomy days ahead before the sun will start shining through.   

Ole Miss does have a few really talented players.  One that really sticks out to me is Donte Moncrief.  Moncrief is an impressive football talent.  He will play on Sundays one day.  Moncrief by himself could keep Ole Miss in a couple of games.  Another really talented player with question marks is Jeff Scott.  If Jeff Scott does not get cleared academically it would be a devastating blow to the Rebels.  Scott may be the best player on this football team. 

Most of the talented players for Ole Miss are skilled position players.  Both the offensive and defensive lines for the Rebels last year were terrible.  Just like I mentioned with MS State you win and lose based on your big men in the SEC.  On paper it does not appear that the Rebels have the depth or talent to compete in the SEC.

The biggest thing I am going to look for this year with the Ole Miss football team is do they have some fight in them.  This season will be unsuccessful on paper, but if the Rebels fight and start to believe in themselves again they could build something for next year or the next.  From the comments Freeze made at SEC Media Days he knows he is in for a rough year, but he sounds to me like he is ready to embrace it. 

This was probably one of the hardest blog posts I have done so far because I really can not believe Ole Miss let Houston Nutt put them in the position they currently are in.  Thankfully Ole Miss has a new coach and Athletic Director.   Losing really sucks especially at a school with a good fan base.  The thing this football team and staff need most is time. 

Mississippi State

Ms State was the first of the two SEC schools from Mississippi to arrive at Hoover, so I will start this with them. What I gathered from Dan Mullen at SEC Media Days? Nothing. He says exactly what he is supposed to say. Can Ms State actually contend for a National Championship? No, but what else is he supposed to say? No coach will ever say we have no chance to beat team x or team y. 

Predictions are not where I am going today, but instead I am going to give a few really early things to think about. Can MS State replace Vic Ballard? I feel like losing Vic Ballard is going to hurt Ms State. I was a big fan of everything he brought to the table, and I feel like he was not used appropriately last year. I expect the Bulldogs to throw much more this year which will help fill the void of Ballard. MS State does have 2 talented backs (Perkins & Griffin), but until they are proven I question this position.

Will the veteran wide receivers and Tyler Russell finally step up and give Ms State a feared passing game? If the answer to this question is yes the running backs will benefit. Ms State has never had a very good passing game, and the single season passing records are a joke. I like what Tyler Russell brings to this football team. He seems like he has been around forever, but he has 2 years of eligibility left. The potential for these two groups is high.

Can Mississippi State get some depth on the offensive line??? This is the biggest unit question I have for this football team. Football games, especially SEC football games, are won at the line of scrimmage. Every team has talent on the outside, but what separates the boys from the men are the big guys. The starting 5 for MSU is just as good as any other line in the conference, but you have to have 10 guys to compete on a weekly basis. The team benefits this year from some injuries last year, but I still don't know what this group has. If this group gets depth and over performs then watch out for the Bulldogs. If they do not get some depth the ship could sink fast.

My final question for this team is can they make that extra play to take them from being good to great?  I believe this is the most talented football team Ms State has had since they went to the SEC Championship game in 1998.   The Bulldogs will at the very least be a good football team.  Being good in the SEC gets you to 6 to 8 wins.  Ms State will be in contention in every game they play this year.  The step they need to make to get to great is for someone to make the big play.   It is much easier to go from ok to good than it is to go from good to great.  The Bulldogs learned how hard the next step is last year. 

Every question I have had so far has been about the offense because I feel like the Ms State defense will be really good. This defense has a chance to be one of the top defenses in the SEC. If the offense sputters then this unit will carry the Bulldogs to some wins.

Are you ready for some football?!?!

There are a few distinct events that let me know we are ready for some actual football. Those events are the release of NCAA for XBox or PS3, SEC Media Days, and the Neshoba County Fair. People will say I can understand the first 2 because they are directly related to football, but how does the Fair factor in. The Neshoba County is an event much like game days in the South. The Fair is basically a warm up for people tailgating. If you have never attended the Fair it should be on your bucket list.

Ok, back to actual football(6 weeks from tomorrow we have college football).. With SEC Media Days over 2/3 of the way complete, we are getting ready for some actual football. I honestly don't read much that the journalist write prior to August because they are just trying to fill space up until practices start.

SEC Media Days

These college football coaches are smart men. You do not get to the position of being a football coach in the SEC without a lot of hard work and a lot of intelligence.  They do not get caught in question traps and most media don't ask inappropriate questions because a media credential is tough to get. It is a privilege not a right to have a media credential for SEC Media Days. With that being said the SEC Media Days is really pretty boring. You get a lot of coach speech, i.e.:

"We have some great senior leaders"
"We have some young guys that are really talented that we expect will come into their own and be major contributors"
"Our fan base is the best in the country and we love them"
"I haven't been around the players this summer, because you know I can't, but I have "heard" the players have been working really hard"

Every single coach at the podium has said at least one of the above comments if not all of them. With all the attention on SEC Media Days they have everything scripted.  The one thing you don't want is to provide bulletin board material for a rival or opponent.  Steve Spurrier is about the only coach that doesn't mind taking a jab.  He took one this year at Ole Miss.

I don't know if I was really impressed with John L. Smith because he seems interesting or if it was because I am just glad to not see Bobby Petrino.  I think it was more that I am just glad to not have to hear Petrino.  I think Bobby Petrino is a piece of ****.  He is a top 5 scumbag in all of sports.  My judgement of Petrino is not made from his most recent drama.   His history is bad at every place he has been.  What he did to the Atlanta Falcons organization, players, and coaches was cowardly and unacceptable.  I don't care how good he is at X's and O's the guy is a terrible human being.  Lawyer Milloy said it perfect about his most recent situation "That's karma".  Lawyer Milloy was a part of the Falcons team that he ran out on in the middle of the night.  It would not hurt my feelings to never see Bobby Petrino coach again.

Preseason polls are as irrelevant as pay phones.    I can't sit here and confidently provide you with a top 10, but I can tell you this.  When the dust clears at the end of the year there will be a SEC school playing in the National Championship.  The conference deserves that right until someone from another conference beats them.  I feel like overall the SEC may be as strong this year as it ever has been from top to bottom.  Adding Missouri and TAMU certainly helps that (I welcome both of those schools to the SEC and wish them luck).  The SEC West is going to be the toughest division in all of college football again, but I believe the SEC East could make a surge back into play this year.  South Caroline, UGA, and Florida all have question marks, but it would not surprise me to see one of them have a magical season.

I will be blogging tomorrow about Mississippi State and Friday about Ole Miss.  Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to provide me with comments, criticism, questions, etc. 

SEC Football Schedule Grid 2012

       

Final Four Predictions

Final Four South West East Midwest
Actual

Picks
Wally Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Tyler Marlin Kentucky Louisville Vanderbilt UNC
Adam Dixon Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Todd Clark Kentucky Louisville FSU UNC
Austin Owen Kentucky Mizzou Syracuse St.Marys
Adam Sanders Kentucky Mizzou Vanderbilt Kansas
Chris Welch Kentucky Florida Syracuse UNC
Brad Chaney Kentucky MSU FSU Kansas
Zeb Whatley Kentucky Mizzou FSU UNC
Luke Yeatman Kentucky MSU Ohio State UNC
John Mc Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Joey Brown Kentucky Louisville FSU Kansas
Harris Vanbus Kentucky MSU Ohio State UNC
Ruth Pitts Kentucky Mizzou FSU Kansas
CJ Garavelli Kentucky Louisville Ohio State Kansas
Alex Hinton Kentucky Mizzou FSU UNC
Cory Buchanan Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Paul Utterback Kentucky Florida Ohio State UNC
Stephanie Kentucky Mizzou Vanderbilt Kansas
Justin Gauthier Kentucky Florida Ohio State UNC
Richard Mattiace Baylor Mizzou FSU UNC


I have had several people change their picks since their original submission. If your picks are not what you want to be final let me know and I will change it. Thanks... I hope someone wins.

College Football Offseason 1

We are officially 1 week into the college football offseason (227 days until first game). The 2011 season certainly had its moments but it was not up on the top of my list of great seasons. The National Championship game was a serious let down. Credit should be given to Bama for the performance they put on. However, I think just as much blame should be given to the LSU offense. They simply did not come to play. Rumors out of Baton Rouge are that there was a major argument between players and coaches before the game.. If true it makes a lot of sense, but most of the time rumors are just rumors. In the 3rd quarter every time LSU got the ball I kept thinking this is the time they put a drive together. 1 touchdown and they are right back in this game. That obviously never happened and Bama completed the worst beating ever in the BCS Championship game.

Before the season I made some predictions. Some of my predictions were spot on while some were a little off. I was not drastically wrong on anything. One thing I was spot on about was the firing of Houston Nutt. It had to happen. I was spot on with my prediction of USM having 10 wins in the regular season. USM just had one of their best seasons ever and the players/fans should be proud. I was wrong on my record prediction for Ole Miss. No one ever could have predicted that Ole Miss would lose to Vandy, Kentucky, and La Tech by 2+ touchdowns. A 2 win season for Ole Miss is beyond anything I ever would have expected. I predicted Ms State to have 8 regular season wins. They were so close yet so far from 8 wins.

Southern Mississippi

Larry Fedora has moved on to a bigger and better position. I am not sure UNC could have beaten USM this year, but the job is absolutely a better job. Fedora did take a lot of assistant coaches with him to UNC, but all is not lost for USM. I personally am a believer in going younger with coaching hires at smaller schools, but Ellis Johnson is a good coach. He is the only reason MS State had 1 good year under Croom. He also is a main reason for the success South Carolina has had over the last few years. I look for Ellis Johnson to bring back a defense at USM that is top 20 in the nation on a regular basis. The bigger question I have heading into the 2012 season is who is going to replace Austin Davis? That is going to be a tough job for someone.

Ole Miss

Hugh Freeze has been thrown to the wolves. The Rebels have what I consider one of the top 5 hardest schedules in 2012. Ole Miss could very easily lose their last 8 games next year. Only guarantee wins I see are Central Arkansas the first game of the year and Tulane. If Ole Miss looks forward to their game with Texas the 3rd weekend they could lose to UTEP who comes to Oxford with some good football players. It would take an entire blog for me to list all the question marks the Rebels have going into the 2012 season. Ole Miss fans need to be patient with Hugh Freeze because he won't have a winning season in 2012. Houston Nutt has not left Freeze with much to work with. All those top recruiting classes Nutt had mean nothing because most of the players are not contributing much. One thing Ole Miss fans are getting with Hugh Freeze is someone that truly cares about Ole Miss and in my opinion that means a lot. If given some time I could see Freeze and the new administration turning Ole Miss in the right direction.

Mississippi State

In the last 3-4 years Ole Miss and MS State have flipped positions. During the gloomy days of the Croom era the future looked really bad for MS State. An overhaul of the administration and coaching staff has led to a 180 degree change in EVERYTHING! The football team MS State puts on the field now is competitive with everyone they play. Going forward into the 2012 season Ms State is looking to build more depth and find a way to make those extra few inches/yards. The step Ms State is trying to take is much harder than the steps they have taken to get where they currently are. Some positives for MS State heading into the 2012 season: 1) Their schedule starting out is as easy as it possibly could be in the SEC. 2) From what I can tell the entire coaching staff returns for the 2012 season. 3)The Bulldogs return a lot of major contributors from the 2011 team.

Most people who read this know that I am a Ms State alumni, fan, season ticket holder, booster, etc, etc. However, I try to be as realistic as possible when I talk about all three MS schools. I always try to step back and take the emotion out of it, but that is sometimes hard when you have so much invested in something. One thing I truly believe is that the success of USM, Ole Miss, and MSU does nothing but benefit the State of Mississippi. All fans can agree that they want the state to be successful moving forward. A more successful state improves the quality of life for everyone.

What I want to see is all three schools succeed in the next 5 years. If Ole Miss can get the ball rolling in the next 3 years like Ms State has the in state rivalry is going to explode. The donations will regularly exceed the prior year(s) for both schools. I would love nothing more than to see on a regular basis an Egg Bowl between 2 top 20 teams. I can not even begin to explain the economic impact the State of Mississippi will feel if Ole Miss and Ms State start what I think is going to happen. Thousands of businesses will prosper off a rekindled rivalry.

As always thanks for reading and please continue to send comments/suggestions. I like reading what others think whether they agree or disagree with what I say.

Wally

End of Regular Season

I can not give enough compliments to the USM football team/coach staff. They went on the road as pretty large underdogs and beat a really good Houston team. This win was not a fluke because Houston had EVERYTHING to play for in this game. USM won this game from the opening kick off to the very end in all aspects of the game. Bad news for USM fans is that your coach benefited the most from the win in Houston. There are numerous reports coming out that Larry Fedora has taken the UNC coaching job. I tend to not believe "reports" from "sources" but there are some pretty significant reporters saying he is in at UNC. I can't even begin to tell you who should be the next head football coach at USM. There are plenty of qualified people who would love the opportunity.

On to my next topic about USM. Why in hell did USM decide to go to the Hawaii Bowl. Yes, that is a great perk for the coaches and players, but it sucks for alumni/fans. There won't be a 100 USM fans at this game. Bowl games are a time when alumni associations and athletic departments show off to boosters. It is a time for the universities to raise major money. Reports are that USM turned down more than 1 bowl for a trip to Hawaii. I don't see many positives out of going to this bowl except that they should get a victory if they can focus on the game.

Everyone is well aware that Ole Miss has hired Hugh Freeze as their 37th head football coach. I can't say whether Freeze will be a success or not at Ole Miss because no one really knows enough about him to make a guess. A couple of things I do know is that it will be very hard for him to win at Ole Miss next year. The odds of him winning in his second year are not good either. My major question is will Ole Miss give Hugh Freeze time to learn as a coach and develop a team. It is going to take at least 3 years to rebuild the train wreck that is the Ole Miss football program. The Rebels do have some young talent returning next year, but they have zero depth on both fronts. You have no chance in the SEC without a solid offensive and defensive line. I won't get into the schedule for Ole Miss next year because it is not set in stone yet, but my early analysis of it is that it is hard.

Mississippi State did not have the year some people anticipated. I think the loss at Auburn was a major setback for the Bulldogs, but they did rally and get 6 wins. The 6 wins were not against the greatest opponents, but that really doesnt matter. The Bulldogs are heading to Nashville for a bowl game that really is pretty exciting for the fan base/football program/athletic department. MS State has a pretty large footprint in the Nashville area. MS State will raise serious money for the university in their time in Nashville. There is a long stretch of highway between Ms State and the top tier teams in the SEC, but back to back bowl games is a step in the right direction. I will have another blog later talking about the Bulldogs matchup with the Demon Deacons in the Music City Bowl.

Few other notes:

HEISMAN

My heisman list: 1. Richardson 2. RG3 3. Luck 4. Ball. 5. LaMichael James

I leave Mathieu (honey badger) off because I don't think he is even the best defensive player LSU has. He is fun to watch, but he is not even the best player on his own team.

Trent Richardson is my heisman because he has put up incredible stats against the best opponents in the country.

RG3 has gaudy stats this year, but the truth is that the Big 12 is down. The highest ranked Big 12 scoring defense is 33rd(2 in the top 50). The SEC has 7 teams with defenses ranked in the top 30.

National Championship

Everyone in the SEC got what they wanted... a rematch. ESPN/ABC/FOX/etc got what they wanted... a rematch. The truth is that LSU would massacre Oklahoma State. With all the criticism the BCS gets they got this right. LSU/BAMA rematch is what needed to happen. People across the country are not happy with it because just when they thought the SEC could not dominate any more they have. Those same people mad about the matchup will be watching it.

Bowl Games

The SEC team is a favorite in every bowl game they are playing in except the National Championship. The SEC really isn't an underdog in that game either because it is a pick. That is Las Vegas showing their respect for the SEC. Sports writers/polls are sometimes biased because because of the location of teams. Las Vegas is not biased toward anyone.

College football all year

College football has grown into a machine that does not stop just because the regular season is over. The regular season rolls into the 35 bowl games. Bowl season rolls into recruiting, recruiting into spring, and spring/summer into the 2012season. The growth of college football significantly benefits the middle of the road schools like all teams in MS. MS State and Ole Miss have enough money now to do whatever they want to do within reason.

Thank you all for reading this year. I will have a couple of more post before/during the bowl season.

Thanks again

Wally