Overall 2012 Football Preview

College football has turned into a monster.  There is not a single event in many towns/states that achieves an economic impact anywhere close to a college football weekend.  Some hotels, restaurants, catering companies, etc. make their entire year from 6 or 7 home football game weekends.  The only other events that compare are NFL games.  I have talked to hundreds of people this offseason about football and all have said at some point in our conversation how ready they are for football.  Well we are here!  A few thoughts I have going into the season.

This will be the last time I talk about Penn State and Sandusky.  The punishment laid down on Penn State was above and beyond what was necessary.  The people this punishment will impact had nothing to do with Sandusky or the rest of the program.  I am in no way endorsing what happened because I think it is disgusting to say the least.  It will be 20 years before Penn State is relevant again in football.  This lack of relevancy will hurt local merchants in and around State College, PA(economic impact).  I understand why the NCAA put down the sanctions they did, but I don’t agree with the harshness of them.

This probably goes without saying, but the SEC will be awesome again.  Almost half the conference has the ability to make a run at the SEC/NCAA championship (Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, South Carolina).  I would not rule out the possibility of another SEC/SEC national championship game.  The SEC deserves a shot to defend the title until someone knocks them off.  I can’t even make a prediction for the SEC Championship game because I really think all of the above teams have a shot at it.  One play in a season will be what separates one or two of the above teams from the rest.  You will notice the play when you see it because the media juggernaut known as ESPN will show/talk about it at least 1,000 times.

The national media loves it when they have the chance to hype either USC or Notre Dame.  This year I was shocked to see Notre Dame not ranked in the preseason Top 25 because no matter what it seems like they always are.  The team the media is riding this year is the University of Southern California.  The Trojans return some major talent and deserve the right to be called one of the best preseason teams.  At worst this team will be a 10 win team, but I think the “under the radar” Oregon Ducks may be the best Pac-12 Team.  What I would tell you to look for this year for USC is elevated spreads.  Preseason they have 6 games with a 3+ TD spread.  Opening game spread against Hawaii Saturday is -40.  If Hawaii scores 1 TD the Trojans probably don’t cover.  If the spreads start to get out of control I like whoever is playing USC against the spread.  More times than not underdogs in large spread games are a good pick(especially Nick Saban coached teams because he does not leave starters in to run up the score).

Will a major team run through their schedule undefeated?  I always look at preseason schedules and think yes several teams should be able to do this, but they all end up losing to a team they should dominate.  Not sure how many teams can win all their games, but if we have 2 or 3 undefeated teams with a couple of 1 loss SEC teams then all hell could break loose.  I kind of hope it happens.

Opening weekend games that I like  

Penn State -6 against Ohio - I like this pick because I feel like this team will play this game with a lot of built up emotion, kind of an US against the world mentality.  Penn State has more talent than Ohio.  The sanctions against Penn State won't really start impacting the program until next year. 

Troy -6 against UAB – Troy will be an above average small team this year while UAB will be a bad.

Southern Miss +20 against Nebraska – If USM can get something from their quarterback this game will be close.  

Ole Miss 2012 Football Preview

Ole Miss 2012 Hype Video

University of Mississippi 2012 Football Preview

 

Ole Miss Football had what has to be considered an epic meltdown in 2011 with only 2 wins.  My worst case scenario pick last year for Ole Miss was 4-8, but the lame duck coaching staff and players quit.  No one with a brain would have said prior to the 2011 season that Ole Miss was only going to win 2 games or lose to Vandy, Kentucky, & LaTech by 2+ touchdowns.  Houston Nutt left behind a circus when he left town with millions. That is behind the program now.  A new coaching staff is intact along with a new athletic director. 

New head football coach Hugh Freeze has his work cut out for him in 2012 and beyond.  I like the attitude Freeze has had heading into this season.  His coaching staff, players, and fans are going to need his upbeat attitude during the grind of the season, especially late.  Will Hugh Freeze be successful at Ole Miss?  Not this year and probably not next year, but with some time and University support he could build the program back up to a respectable level.  Freeze has won at every level he has coached.  Until he doesn’t win I have to believe he will steady the ship in Oxford, if given appropriate time.

 

A Clarion Ledger headline on Ole Miss was titled “Picking up the tempo”.  I understand everything said in the article, but I do not see that being able to work this year.  The Rebels do not have the depth on either side of the ball to take a fast pace game into the 4^th quarter.  You have to be two deep at virtually every position to run 80+ plays on offense in a competitive football game.  If you do not have the depth you won’t run 80+ plays because your players will tire out and become less efficient.  A less efficient offense that is going fast punishes your own defense not the other team.  If the offense runs 3 quick plays then has to punt the defense is right back on the field in less than 1 minute of game time.  A defense that lacks depth, like Ole Miss, will not be able to handle this into the 3^rd & 4^th quarters.

Bad news for Ole Miss is that they have a quarterback controversy… Good news is that they actually have 2 quarterbacks that are capable SEC quarterbacks.  The Rebels lack depth on the offensive line, but they have some experience returning and talk out of Rebel camp is that the line has come together.  This team has a couple of serious ballers at some skilled positions.  I consistently rave about Donte Moncrief because I think he is awesome.  I believe if he keeps his head right he could be a very successful NFL receiver in the future, maybe even a Pro Bowl candidate.  The running back situation is not SEC caliber, but there is still talent (Scott/Mackey) and some depth there.  If the offense can catch a few breaks, keep guys healthy, and get some consistency at quarterback then this unit should at the very least put some fans in the seats by scoring points.

The real negative I see in this football team is the defense.  Mike Marry and Charles Sawyer are going to produce if healthy, but what else does Ole Miss have?  The defensive front better have several players emerge, or it will be a long year for a defense that ranked last in the SEC last year.  Ole Miss will be running a base defense of 4-2-5.  People that don’t know what that means 4 (linemen), 2 (linebackers), and 5 (defensive backs).  A football team with a running game will pound that defensive set up especially if the front 4 are subpar.  I just don’t see many positives for this side of the ball heading into the 2012 season.  If people don’t emerge this unit could be an embarrassment.  (Ole Miss does have a really good punter so hopefully he will continue to help the defense as much as he can) 

Best case scenario for Ole Miss in 2012: (6-6) If Hugh Freeze accomplishes this feat then he deserves every coach of the year honor in the country.  A (6-6) record and a bowl bid would be equivalent to a SEC Championship for this team. 

Worst case scenario for Ole Miss in 2012: (2-10) I really don’t see this being possible, but I had to put it because it was achieved last year. 

Prediction for Ole Miss in 2012: (4-8) Ole Miss should take wins from Central Arkansas, UTEP, and Tulane.  I feel like the Rebels will win another game at some point in their season giving them a total of 4.  This team will be competitive in many more games than last year, but their overall lack of depth will show late in games.

 

Head Coach: Hugh Freeze

Defensive Coordinator: Dave Wommack/Wesley McGriff 

Offensive Coordinator: Matt Luke/Dan Werner

Returning Starters: (Offense 6, Defense 7, Specialist 2)

2012 Football Schedule



USM 2012 Football Preview

USM 2012 hype video

University of Southern Mississippi 2012 Football Preview 

Most people that read this blog will read the other prediction blogs, so I will say this just one time.  Preseason predictions are almost impossible because of the large number of unknowns heading into a new football season.  The unknowns are part of what makes the anticipation so great.  If I knew these predictions were going to all be spot on I would be on an airplane to Las Vegas right now.  With all that being said… here we go!

The 2012 USM team heads into the season with new people in important positions. The most obvious is new head football coach Ellis Johnson.   I was/am a fan of this hire by USM. Ellis Johnson was the sole reason why Sylvester Croom ever went to a bowl game at MSU. He will do a great job leading the football program at USM. The only possible negative I can see in the hire of Johnson is his age (60 years old).

The departure of long term QB (Austin Davis) leaves another new situation in Hattiesburg at quarterback. It is going to be weird for me not seeing Davis at QB because it feels like he has been the QB there for 10 years. It looks like redshirt junior Chris Campbell is getting the nod at QB Saturday against Nebraska. No matter who is the starting QB for USM they will benefit from a solid offensive line (4 potential seniors starting) and good defense under Johnson & Tommy West.  I look for USM to rely on their running game and defense this season, especially early.

I have seen a couple of different comments from Nebraska that say "Respect your opponent". I believe this rallying cry is directly pointed at USM. The current line on this game has Nebraska favored by 19-20.5 points. The line came out at 17.5 so the public has been on Nebraska early. USM winning in Lincoln would be a major upset. I would not be shocked by a close game, but the QB situation is going to be a tough mountain for this team to get over playing at Nebraska. That comment is no indication as to how well the overall season will be for the quarterbacks at USM. The fact is playing at Nebraska in your first start is a tough draw.

All is not lost with an opening season loss to Nebraska because one positive in playing Nebraska early is that every opponent following that game will have less talent. Second week of the year is an open date for USM. This will give them a chance to regroup for a strong push through the rest of their 2012 season.  Normally I am not a fan of early season open weeks, but this may serve well for USM with the unsettled QB situation.

USM has 2 really fun home games this year on back to back weekends. The two games are Louisville and Boise State. Louisville was once a heated rival of USM. Boise State has recently been a national powerhouse.  If USM can take wins from both of these teams the best case scenario definitely starts to look like a possibility.   

Best case scenario for USM (10-2)

Worst case scenario for USM (7-5)

Prediction for 2012 Season (8-4) I swayed back and forth between 8 and 9 wins for this, but I finally decided on 8 wins because USM slips up and loses to an inferior team every year.  USM would have been in a BCS bowl game last year if they had not dropped the ball against UAB.  Vegas will have USM favored in 9 or 10 of their games.  A couple of those games will almost be picks with lines of less than 3.

Fun fact about USM: The incoming freshman students at USM are all around 18 years old. It has been 18 years since there has been a losing season in Hattiesburg, so the current freshman class has never seen USM have a losing season. 

Head Coach: Ellis Johnson

Defensive Coordinator: Tommy West

Offensive Coordinator: Steve Buckley

Returning Starters: (Offense 6, Defense 4, Specialist 2)

Returning Letterwinners: (Offense 22, Defense 18, Specialist 2)

Letterwinners Lost: (Offense 7, Defense 13, Specialisty 3)

2012 Football Schedule

Ole Miss

What happened to this football program last year?  The Rebels only won 2 games in 2011.  That is far worse than I ever could have predicted.  The team quit, the coaches quit, and the administration quit.  Last year was just a bad deal all around in what I consider one of the worst, if not the worst, football seasons in the history of the university.  With all that being said 2012 is a new year, and a lot has changed in Oxford.

It did not take the search committee long to find a new coach.  As everyone already knows that coach was Hugh Freeze.  Only time will tell if this hire was a good one or not.   Hugh Freeze better be a really good football coach because he has entered into a tough situation.  Houston Nutt was running a circus of a football program.  There was zero discipline on or off the field the last 2 years at Ole Miss.

The question marks about the team entering the 2012 season are endless.  The Rebels do not even have a full roster heading into this season because of academic and discipline issues left behind by Houston Nutt.  The academic issues are still not settled, and the Rebels could lose more players before the season starts.  The negatives far exceed the positives heading into the 2012 season, but that is not necessarily a bad thing in this situation. With expectations low the fan base is expecting nothing from the Rebels this year.  

Hugh Freeze has never done anything but win as a head coach.  The levels he was coaching at in no way compare to the SEC, but a winner is a winner.  How will a man who has only won handle the adversity of losing this year?  I am not predicting a win total yet for the Rebels, but 5 wins would be a successful season.  I see several potential blow outs on the schedule this year.  Hugh Freeze has a lot of gloomy days ahead before the sun will start shining through.   

Ole Miss does have a few really talented players.  One that really sticks out to me is Donte Moncrief.  Moncrief is an impressive football talent.  He will play on Sundays one day.  Moncrief by himself could keep Ole Miss in a couple of games.  Another really talented player with question marks is Jeff Scott.  If Jeff Scott does not get cleared academically it would be a devastating blow to the Rebels.  Scott may be the best player on this football team. 

Most of the talented players for Ole Miss are skilled position players.  Both the offensive and defensive lines for the Rebels last year were terrible.  Just like I mentioned with MS State you win and lose based on your big men in the SEC.  On paper it does not appear that the Rebels have the depth or talent to compete in the SEC.

The biggest thing I am going to look for this year with the Ole Miss football team is do they have some fight in them.  This season will be unsuccessful on paper, but if the Rebels fight and start to believe in themselves again they could build something for next year or the next.  From the comments Freeze made at SEC Media Days he knows he is in for a rough year, but he sounds to me like he is ready to embrace it. 

This was probably one of the hardest blog posts I have done so far because I really can not believe Ole Miss let Houston Nutt put them in the position they currently are in.  Thankfully Ole Miss has a new coach and Athletic Director.   Losing really sucks especially at a school with a good fan base.  The thing this football team and staff need most is time. 

Mississippi State

Ms State was the first of the two SEC schools from Mississippi to arrive at Hoover, so I will start this with them. What I gathered from Dan Mullen at SEC Media Days? Nothing. He says exactly what he is supposed to say. Can Ms State actually contend for a National Championship? No, but what else is he supposed to say? No coach will ever say we have no chance to beat team x or team y. 

Predictions are not where I am going today, but instead I am going to give a few really early things to think about. Can MS State replace Vic Ballard? I feel like losing Vic Ballard is going to hurt Ms State. I was a big fan of everything he brought to the table, and I feel like he was not used appropriately last year. I expect the Bulldogs to throw much more this year which will help fill the void of Ballard. MS State does have 2 talented backs (Perkins & Griffin), but until they are proven I question this position.

Will the veteran wide receivers and Tyler Russell finally step up and give Ms State a feared passing game? If the answer to this question is yes the running backs will benefit. Ms State has never had a very good passing game, and the single season passing records are a joke. I like what Tyler Russell brings to this football team. He seems like he has been around forever, but he has 2 years of eligibility left. The potential for these two groups is high.

Can Mississippi State get some depth on the offensive line??? This is the biggest unit question I have for this football team. Football games, especially SEC football games, are won at the line of scrimmage. Every team has talent on the outside, but what separates the boys from the men are the big guys. The starting 5 for MSU is just as good as any other line in the conference, but you have to have 10 guys to compete on a weekly basis. The team benefits this year from some injuries last year, but I still don't know what this group has. If this group gets depth and over performs then watch out for the Bulldogs. If they do not get some depth the ship could sink fast.

My final question for this team is can they make that extra play to take them from being good to great?  I believe this is the most talented football team Ms State has had since they went to the SEC Championship game in 1998.   The Bulldogs will at the very least be a good football team.  Being good in the SEC gets you to 6 to 8 wins.  Ms State will be in contention in every game they play this year.  The step they need to make to get to great is for someone to make the big play.   It is much easier to go from ok to good than it is to go from good to great.  The Bulldogs learned how hard the next step is last year. 

Every question I have had so far has been about the offense because I feel like the Ms State defense will be really good. This defense has a chance to be one of the top defenses in the SEC. If the offense sputters then this unit will carry the Bulldogs to some wins.

Are you ready for some football?!?!

There are a few distinct events that let me know we are ready for some actual football. Those events are the release of NCAA for XBox or PS3, SEC Media Days, and the Neshoba County Fair. People will say I can understand the first 2 because they are directly related to football, but how does the Fair factor in. The Neshoba County is an event much like game days in the South. The Fair is basically a warm up for people tailgating. If you have never attended the Fair it should be on your bucket list.

Ok, back to actual football(6 weeks from tomorrow we have college football).. With SEC Media Days over 2/3 of the way complete, we are getting ready for some actual football. I honestly don't read much that the journalist write prior to August because they are just trying to fill space up until practices start.

SEC Media Days

These college football coaches are smart men. You do not get to the position of being a football coach in the SEC without a lot of hard work and a lot of intelligence.  They do not get caught in question traps and most media don't ask inappropriate questions because a media credential is tough to get. It is a privilege not a right to have a media credential for SEC Media Days. With that being said the SEC Media Days is really pretty boring. You get a lot of coach speech, i.e.:

"We have some great senior leaders"
"We have some young guys that are really talented that we expect will come into their own and be major contributors"
"Our fan base is the best in the country and we love them"
"I haven't been around the players this summer, because you know I can't, but I have "heard" the players have been working really hard"

Every single coach at the podium has said at least one of the above comments if not all of them. With all the attention on SEC Media Days they have everything scripted.  The one thing you don't want is to provide bulletin board material for a rival or opponent.  Steve Spurrier is about the only coach that doesn't mind taking a jab.  He took one this year at Ole Miss.

I don't know if I was really impressed with John L. Smith because he seems interesting or if it was because I am just glad to not see Bobby Petrino.  I think it was more that I am just glad to not have to hear Petrino.  I think Bobby Petrino is a piece of ****.  He is a top 5 scumbag in all of sports.  My judgement of Petrino is not made from his most recent drama.   His history is bad at every place he has been.  What he did to the Atlanta Falcons organization, players, and coaches was cowardly and unacceptable.  I don't care how good he is at X's and O's the guy is a terrible human being.  Lawyer Milloy said it perfect about his most recent situation "That's karma".  Lawyer Milloy was a part of the Falcons team that he ran out on in the middle of the night.  It would not hurt my feelings to never see Bobby Petrino coach again.

Preseason polls are as irrelevant as pay phones.    I can't sit here and confidently provide you with a top 10, but I can tell you this.  When the dust clears at the end of the year there will be a SEC school playing in the National Championship.  The conference deserves that right until someone from another conference beats them.  I feel like overall the SEC may be as strong this year as it ever has been from top to bottom.  Adding Missouri and TAMU certainly helps that (I welcome both of those schools to the SEC and wish them luck).  The SEC West is going to be the toughest division in all of college football again, but I believe the SEC East could make a surge back into play this year.  South Caroline, UGA, and Florida all have question marks, but it would not surprise me to see one of them have a magical season.

I will be blogging tomorrow about Mississippi State and Friday about Ole Miss.  Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to provide me with comments, criticism, questions, etc. 

SEC Football Schedule Grid 2012

       

Final Four Predictions

Final Four South West East Midwest
Actual

Picks
Wally Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Tyler Marlin Kentucky Louisville Vanderbilt UNC
Adam Dixon Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Todd Clark Kentucky Louisville FSU UNC
Austin Owen Kentucky Mizzou Syracuse St.Marys
Adam Sanders Kentucky Mizzou Vanderbilt Kansas
Chris Welch Kentucky Florida Syracuse UNC
Brad Chaney Kentucky MSU FSU Kansas
Zeb Whatley Kentucky Mizzou FSU UNC
Luke Yeatman Kentucky MSU Ohio State UNC
John Mc Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Joey Brown Kentucky Louisville FSU Kansas
Harris Vanbus Kentucky MSU Ohio State UNC
Ruth Pitts Kentucky Mizzou FSU Kansas
CJ Garavelli Kentucky Louisville Ohio State Kansas
Alex Hinton Kentucky Mizzou FSU UNC
Cory Buchanan Kentucky Mizzou Ohio State UNC
Paul Utterback Kentucky Florida Ohio State UNC
Stephanie Kentucky Mizzou Vanderbilt Kansas
Justin Gauthier Kentucky Florida Ohio State UNC
Richard Mattiace Baylor Mizzou FSU UNC


I have had several people change their picks since their original submission. If your picks are not what you want to be final let me know and I will change it. Thanks... I hope someone wins.