I told all of you about LSU @ Alabama on November 5th. If you have not watched either of these teams play then you are probably not reading this and you are probably irrelevant. You need to be close to a TV when these two teams play. It will start around 2:30 on CBS and it will be worth your 3-4 hours. Both of these teams will be undefeated when they play. Florida has a great team this year, but they will lose the next two weeks to Bama and LSU.
USM went up to Virginia and did exactly what I said they needed to do last week... took at win. They play Rice this weekend at home. Rice in baseball is scary. However, this is football and they are not good. USM is a 15+/- point favorite. I say USM covers the spread with an easy win. USM rolls to 4 and 1 with a win this weekend. 3 wins in a row is a winning streak! SMTTT! HUGE game next week at Navy.
Glad I led this off the with the good news about USM because I have very little about MS State and Ole Miss. I will start with Ole Miss. Major problems are surfacing in Oxford. This Forward Rebels BS has gone to a new level. The entire situation is not good. Ole Miss has not been a unified body since I have been alive. Whatever happened before that I can not speak about because I really don't know or care. Whatever idiot is heading up this Forward Rebels Forward movement probably had something to do with the Black Bear shenanigans. The Ole Miss football team needs to put all the outside criticism aside, go to the west coast this weekend, and play a solid SEC football game. Ole Miss has better talent than Fresno State, but the Rebels have had trouble with BULLDOGS lately.
My first reaction to the MS State/La Tech game is a win is a win. I did not personally watch or listen to this game because I was gator hunting, but I did record it. I am better at watching film than writing. After watching the replay, this was a sloppy football game. For all of you State fans... I will say it again. A WIN IS A WIN. No one will remember the overtime game against La Tech when we are in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. The Bulldogs travel to UGA this weekend to play a game that is pretty big for both teams. MSU beat UGA last year at home in a game the Georgia Bulldogs should have won. Line on this game is 7+/- with UGA as the favorite. Both teams have played early games, so the bloody mary kickoff (11 AM CT) really has no impact. Value index shows Georgia should be a 19 point favorite. The gambler in me says take Georgia -7.
No picks for me this weekend besides the ones above! There will be some quality games though.
Opening weekend 0 for 3 on picks (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
3rd weekend 1 for 2 (Won Bama/Lost Houston)
4th weekend 2 for 3 (Lost Notre Dame and won Georgia and LSU)
Season: 5 for 10 which is 50%
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 2 for 4
3 Star 2 for 5
I hope everyone has a great weekend! Email me any thoughts or ideas. Thanks.
Wally
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Pro Football Players
Every once in a while I hear people talking or see an article about the average male playing pro football. The thing I most recently saw was a survey in which over 50% of males said they could get a 3 yard run in the NFL. The people who answered yes to this have no clue. You could not even get a -3 yard gain in the NFL much less a positive gain.
The guys you watch on Sundays are the absolute most physically talent human beings on the planet. They are bigger, stronger, and faster than anyone you have ever met in your life. In the NFL you have 300lb men who can stand and do a backflip. A NFL cornerback could play any sport in the world and be successful at it. NFL players are regular winners on Dancing with the Stars and other reality shows because of their rare size and skills.
NFL players are not "dumb jocks" either. The guys who contribute significant time are well above average when it comes to IQ and Wonderlic scores. Both offenses and defenses in pro football are extremely in depth. They require players and coaches to devote 50+ hours a week of preparation for a 3 hour game.
There's a little over 1,000,000 males that play high school football with about a quarter of that being seniors. Between all the teams in division 1 football you have 10,080 total scholarships. Many of those are occupied by sophs, juniors, etc. You have around 2,500 scholarships available every year for incoming freshmen. That means around 1% of high school football playes will go play football at the division 1 level. Keep in mind that some people know they aren't going to play football after high school, but stats show between 55 and 65% of high school football players believe they can play college football.
The odds of going from college to pro are pretty small too. You will have roughly 3,000 people available for the NFL draft every year because you do not have to be a senior to declare. The NFL draft is 7 rounds of 32 picks totalling 224. If you play college football and apply for the draft you have a 7.5% chance of getting drafted. Yes there are some free agency players that make it and some people drafted get cut. The number of new players in the league every year is around 200. Summary to the above two paragraphs is that only .08% of high school football players will play in the NFl.
The NFL is the most competitive organization in the world. If you do not perform you are out. The pressure put on coaches and players by front office executives, fans, and media is at an all time high. The pressure to perform is providing us fans with quality entertainment. If you are reading this you could not get a 3 yard run in the NFL. You would not get back to the line of scrimmage and you would probably be hurt after the play.
My week four analysis will be posted sometime on Thursday with weekend picks being posted on Friday.
Thanks for reading... As always, email me if you have thoughts, ideas, or comments Wally146@aol.com
The guys you watch on Sundays are the absolute most physically talent human beings on the planet. They are bigger, stronger, and faster than anyone you have ever met in your life. In the NFL you have 300lb men who can stand and do a backflip. A NFL cornerback could play any sport in the world and be successful at it. NFL players are regular winners on Dancing with the Stars and other reality shows because of their rare size and skills.
NFL players are not "dumb jocks" either. The guys who contribute significant time are well above average when it comes to IQ and Wonderlic scores. Both offenses and defenses in pro football are extremely in depth. They require players and coaches to devote 50+ hours a week of preparation for a 3 hour game.
There's a little over 1,000,000 males that play high school football with about a quarter of that being seniors. Between all the teams in division 1 football you have 10,080 total scholarships. Many of those are occupied by sophs, juniors, etc. You have around 2,500 scholarships available every year for incoming freshmen. That means around 1% of high school football playes will go play football at the division 1 level. Keep in mind that some people know they aren't going to play football after high school, but stats show between 55 and 65% of high school football players believe they can play college football.
The odds of going from college to pro are pretty small too. You will have roughly 3,000 people available for the NFL draft every year because you do not have to be a senior to declare. The NFL draft is 7 rounds of 32 picks totalling 224. If you play college football and apply for the draft you have a 7.5% chance of getting drafted. Yes there are some free agency players that make it and some people drafted get cut. The number of new players in the league every year is around 200. Summary to the above two paragraphs is that only .08% of high school football players will play in the NFl.
The NFL is the most competitive organization in the world. If you do not perform you are out. The pressure put on coaches and players by front office executives, fans, and media is at an all time high. The pressure to perform is providing us fans with quality entertainment. If you are reading this you could not get a 3 yard run in the NFL. You would not get back to the line of scrimmage and you would probably be hurt after the play.
My week four analysis will be posted sometime on Thursday with weekend picks being posted on Friday.
Thanks for reading... As always, email me if you have thoughts, ideas, or comments Wally146@aol.com
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Week 4 Picks
Notre Dame -6.5 Four Star Pick
First off let me tell you how happy it makes me that Notre Dame lost their first two games the way they did. Especially the one against Michigan on a last second td pass.
Couple of things to note.. First: Vegas loves elevating the line for Notre Dame because they know the amount of money that is going to be bet on them every week. Notre Dame is consistently bet on as much as any other team in the country. This is not the case with this line. This line should be up above 10 according to many value indexes. Second: Notre Dame should be undefeated right now. I am glad they aren't because some idiot (Lou Holtz) would probably have them in the top 10, and all we would hear about his how Notre Dame is back.
Putting my dislike for Notre Dame aside... this is a great bet for the weekend.
Georgia -9.5 or -10 Three Star Pick
Luckily for Ole Miss fans I have been terrible with my three star picks this year. I obviously like this pick more at -9.5 instead of -10, but many sites are showing it has gone to -10. As I mentioned earlier in the week, this game features two coaches on the hottest two coaching seats in the SEC.
On an ideal football team all the major components help make each other better. Ole Miss is a prime example of this so far this year. The Rebel defense has played pretty good football, but the lack of help from the offense has killed them. A good offense is the best thing for a defense. Against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss had 8 out of 14 total drives last 3 or less plays. That means the defense had to go right back out on the field with very little rest. I can't even get into all the problems that are wrong with the offense, but as far as the Rebel defense goes, their main problem is the lack of offensive production. If you look at the LSU/MSU game there was a similar situation. The defense played good, but the offense could not get anything going. With the lack of offense the defense was constantly on the field.
Georgia will score 35+ points in this game.. I just don't see Ole Miss getting offensive production anywhere close to that. I like Georgia by 2 touchdowns.
Louisiana State -5.5 Three Star Pick
Why do I think this is a good pick? Because LSU is stupid good. I am aware that I have picked 3 road team favorites this week. That is probably a first for me. This LSU road game is not going to make any difference to them because all they have done this year is play on the road. LSU covers 5.5 points.
Opening weekend 0 for 3 on picks (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
3rd weekend 1 for 2 (Won Bama/Lost Houston)
Season: 3 for 7 which is still under 50%. I have been terrible with 3 star picks.
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 2 for 3
3 Star 0 for 3
Below are my college pick'ems for Saturday, September 24, 2011. I am in the 93 percentile so far for the year. I was never able to do that on any type of achievement tests. My picks are in bold.
3:30PM
Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) at
3 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
10 points
3:30PM
Colorado Buffaloes (1-2) at
Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1)
9 points
10:15PM
Oregon Ducks (2-1) at
Arizona Wildcats (1-2)
8 points
8:00PM
LSU Tigers (3-0) at
16 West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0)
7 points
12:00PM
San Diego State Aztecs (3-0) at
22 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
6 points
12:00PM
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2) at
Pittsburgh Panthers (2-1)
5 points
12:00PM
North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0) at
25 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0)
4 points
10:15PM
USC Trojans (3-0) at
Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1)
3 points
3:30PM
Florida State Seminoles (2-1) at
21 Clemson Tigers (3-0)
2 points
3:30PM
Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) at
8 Texas A&M Aggies (2-0)
1 point
Tiebreaker LSU Tigers: 31 West Virginia: 17
Please email me any comments, thoughts, or ideas.. I am interested in hearing other people's opinion. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading! Enjoy the weather and have a great weekend.
Wally
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Week Three College Football
This is going to be an interesting week to talk about for many reasons. Reason #1: Football season is now in full swing. Most teams have already played 1 or 2 conference games and if they have not they enter conference play this weekend. Reason #2: Conference expansion/realignment is also in full swing. It appears we are quickly headed toward 4 major 16 team conferences. The power players in this whole process are the SEC and Texas/OU because of the money. This whole process is being caused by money and greed. Reason #3: Last but not least the drama with the two major schools in the State of MS is at an all time high. I will get more into this later.
Put this date on your calendar…. November 5th. LSU plays at Alabama. This will probably be one of the best regular season college football games in a long time. The winner of this game probably wins the National Championship. It is unbelievable how good the defenses are for these two teams.
Southern Miss travels to Virginia this week for a game that will tell a lot about where their season will go. USM bounced back last week against an inferior opponent in Southeastern Louisiana. Prior to the season I had USM as a favorite going into this game against Virginia. Virginia has proved to be slightly better than I thought they would while USM has not lived up to my expectations through 3 weeks. Las Vegas has USM as a 3 point underdog in this game. Southern Miss needs to go up to Virginia, put all the pieces together, and take a win.
Not a good start to the season by both Ole Miss and MS State. I will first talk about the Rebels. The opening game loss to BYU is looking worse and worse the more games they play. BYU got dominated by Utah. I had some optimism for Ole Miss following that game, but I obviously over estimated BYU this season. Moving forward…A 30-7 loss against Vanderbilt is not acceptable. The bad part about it is that the game was worse for the Rebels than the score which was bad. The Houston Nutt quarterback carousel has once re-emerged. I have no idea what Nutt does to these quarterbacks, but he manages to completely destroy them mentally. Georgia comes into Oxford on Saturday as a 9.5 point favorite. This game features coaches on the two hottest seats in the SEC. A win could change everything for Ole Miss, but at this point I cannot see that happening. I hate to say it, but you heard it here first… Georgia in a blow out Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Lots of problems in Oxford from top to bottom… If Nutt does not figure out some way to rally the troops he may not make it through the season.
The start to the 2011 football season has not gone as anticipated for Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs. The first thing I am going to say is that I do believe MS State has a good football team, coaching staff, and administration. The talent in Starkville has been significantly upgraded the last couple of years. I do not doubt Dan Mullen as a coach because his tract record proves he is a winner. With all that being said, at some point Dan Mullen has got to put his money where his mouth is. If everything was not so bad in Oxford this year many more people would be talking about Dan Mullen's lack of production against top teams. Mullen is flying under the radar because of all the drama at Ole Miss. The good news for Dan Mullen going forward is that the schedule doesn't get harder. The bulldogs won't see a defense comparable to LSU until they meet up with Alabama. Just like with Houston Nutt, Dan Mullen needs to find a way to string together a few wins starting with a solid performance against La Tech this Saturday.
One other thing: I do not agree with the way the Forward Rebels movement is going about their business. The ad placed in the paper was a reaction based on feelings. When you are going to do something as significant as they did you need to step back for a few days and take the emotion out of it. If I wrote my blog the same day or the day after USM/Ole Miss/MS State played it would be much different than it is in the middle of the week because I would bring emotions into it. Sometimes you have to step back for a few days and calm down. After a few days you will probably realize you were the one that was out of line. All things considered, I am in no position to tell you whether the Ole Miss administration is doing a good job or not. One thing I do know is that Dan Jones did not call a single football play against Vanderbilt. Below is the ad if you have not seen it(click on picture to see it larger)or visit forwardrebels.com.
If you have questions, comments, or ideas email me Wally146@aol.com
Thanks
Put this date on your calendar…. November 5th. LSU plays at Alabama. This will probably be one of the best regular season college football games in a long time. The winner of this game probably wins the National Championship. It is unbelievable how good the defenses are for these two teams.
Southern Miss travels to Virginia this week for a game that will tell a lot about where their season will go. USM bounced back last week against an inferior opponent in Southeastern Louisiana. Prior to the season I had USM as a favorite going into this game against Virginia. Virginia has proved to be slightly better than I thought they would while USM has not lived up to my expectations through 3 weeks. Las Vegas has USM as a 3 point underdog in this game. Southern Miss needs to go up to Virginia, put all the pieces together, and take a win.
Not a good start to the season by both Ole Miss and MS State. I will first talk about the Rebels. The opening game loss to BYU is looking worse and worse the more games they play. BYU got dominated by Utah. I had some optimism for Ole Miss following that game, but I obviously over estimated BYU this season. Moving forward…A 30-7 loss against Vanderbilt is not acceptable. The bad part about it is that the game was worse for the Rebels than the score which was bad. The Houston Nutt quarterback carousel has once re-emerged. I have no idea what Nutt does to these quarterbacks, but he manages to completely destroy them mentally. Georgia comes into Oxford on Saturday as a 9.5 point favorite. This game features coaches on the two hottest seats in the SEC. A win could change everything for Ole Miss, but at this point I cannot see that happening. I hate to say it, but you heard it here first… Georgia in a blow out Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Lots of problems in Oxford from top to bottom… If Nutt does not figure out some way to rally the troops he may not make it through the season.
The start to the 2011 football season has not gone as anticipated for Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs. The first thing I am going to say is that I do believe MS State has a good football team, coaching staff, and administration. The talent in Starkville has been significantly upgraded the last couple of years. I do not doubt Dan Mullen as a coach because his tract record proves he is a winner. With all that being said, at some point Dan Mullen has got to put his money where his mouth is. If everything was not so bad in Oxford this year many more people would be talking about Dan Mullen's lack of production against top teams. Mullen is flying under the radar because of all the drama at Ole Miss. The good news for Dan Mullen going forward is that the schedule doesn't get harder. The bulldogs won't see a defense comparable to LSU until they meet up with Alabama. Just like with Houston Nutt, Dan Mullen needs to find a way to string together a few wins starting with a solid performance against La Tech this Saturday.
One other thing: I do not agree with the way the Forward Rebels movement is going about their business. The ad placed in the paper was a reaction based on feelings. When you are going to do something as significant as they did you need to step back for a few days and take the emotion out of it. If I wrote my blog the same day or the day after USM/Ole Miss/MS State played it would be much different than it is in the middle of the week because I would bring emotions into it. Sometimes you have to step back for a few days and calm down. After a few days you will probably realize you were the one that was out of line. All things considered, I am in no position to tell you whether the Ole Miss administration is doing a good job or not. One thing I do know is that Dan Jones did not call a single football play against Vanderbilt. Below is the ad if you have not seen it(click on picture to see it larger)or visit forwardrebels.com.
If you have questions, comments, or ideas email me Wally146@aol.com
Thanks
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
3rd Weekend Picks
North Texas +46 4 Star
I like this line for a lot of reasons. The first reason is that 46 points is a lot. North Texas has played and lost to two pretty decent teams to start the season (FIU and Houston). Only thing that gives me some doubt in this is that the Mean Green may not cross the 50 against the Bama defense. The main reason I like this is that Bama plays Arkansas next week. Coaches will say one game at a time, don't know who we play next week, etc, etc. I will tell you that in this case they are looking ahead to next week. Nick Saban has respect for the game of football and has good sportsmanship. He will not run the score up against North Texas because he has bigger goals in mind. I will not say this is the lock that Bama was against Penn State last week. I gave that 5 stars.
Houston -7 3 Star
The Houston Cougars have Case Keenum back from an injury that ended his season last year. They are going to score points no matter who they play. One thing I know is that I am glad they rotated off Ms State's schedule this year.
Opening weekend I went 0 for 3 on picks. (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
Season: 2 for 5 which is obviously under 50%
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 1 for 2
3 Star 0 for 2
LSU at MSU
I said this in my blog post earlier in the week. LSU is super talented especially on defense. They are big, fast, and physical. Les Miles has used like 15 rabbits feet in his time at LSU. At some point something has to go against him. Dan Mullen needs his team to play the best game they have played since he has been in Starkville. Starkville is going to be rocking today/tonight, so there will be a home field advantage. Over the last couple of years these Thursday night games have caused numerous upsets. The chance is small, but the Bulldogs have a chance. From one of the funniest movies of all time Dumb and Dumber "So you are saying there's a chance". The fact is.. If MSU wins this game tonight it will be the biggest win for MSU in my lifetime.
I like this line for a lot of reasons. The first reason is that 46 points is a lot. North Texas has played and lost to two pretty decent teams to start the season (FIU and Houston). Only thing that gives me some doubt in this is that the Mean Green may not cross the 50 against the Bama defense. The main reason I like this is that Bama plays Arkansas next week. Coaches will say one game at a time, don't know who we play next week, etc, etc. I will tell you that in this case they are looking ahead to next week. Nick Saban has respect for the game of football and has good sportsmanship. He will not run the score up against North Texas because he has bigger goals in mind. I will not say this is the lock that Bama was against Penn State last week. I gave that 5 stars.
Houston -7 3 Star
The Houston Cougars have Case Keenum back from an injury that ended his season last year. They are going to score points no matter who they play. One thing I know is that I am glad they rotated off Ms State's schedule this year.
Opening weekend I went 0 for 3 on picks. (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
Season: 2 for 5 which is obviously under 50%
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 1 for 2
3 Star 0 for 2
LSU at MSU
I said this in my blog post earlier in the week. LSU is super talented especially on defense. They are big, fast, and physical. Les Miles has used like 15 rabbits feet in his time at LSU. At some point something has to go against him. Dan Mullen needs his team to play the best game they have played since he has been in Starkville. Starkville is going to be rocking today/tonight, so there will be a home field advantage. Over the last couple of years these Thursday night games have caused numerous upsets. The chance is small, but the Bulldogs have a chance. From one of the funniest movies of all time Dumb and Dumber "So you are saying there's a chance". The fact is.. If MSU wins this game tonight it will be the biggest win for MSU in my lifetime.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Short week and I have a lot of work to get done so I am getting this one out earlier this week. My opinion typically changes during the week, but this is how I feel today.
Week Two College Football
It was clear early in the Bama/Penn State game that Penn State was simply over matched. Every time Bama’s defense made a tackle they pounded the Penn State ball carrier. LSU and Bama may have the best two defenses we have ever seen. Between those 2 defenses there are 20+ NFL players. 6-8 of those players will be MAJOR contributors in the NFL.
Another strong SEC team that is somehow flying under the radar is the Florida Gators. They have not played a team yet that could challenge them, but that will change this week. Derek Dooley has Tennessee on the rise. Vegas opened this line up at 10, but it has gone down some to Florida -8.5. I feel this is high for a rivalry game, but Florida has a good football team. As of today I am putting them as the front runner for the SEC East.
I made a mistake last week saying La Tech was a conference game for USM. Their first conference game was against Marshall on the road this past weekend. I really don’t even know what to think about this game. I looked at the score of this game early and USM appeared to be rolling. USM scored on a long TD pass with 5:45 left in the second quarter to go up 17-3. After this they had 10 straight possessions that either ended in a punt, fumble, or interception. This was a really bad loss for USM. They were the better team and if they had cut their turnovers (6) in half they would have won the game. USM plays Southeastern LA this weekend. They will win that game and move to 2-1, but the Marshall game will haunt them for the rest of the year. After the SELA game USM plays Virginia and Rice, two teams that are better than I thought they would be going into the season.
Ole Miss travels to Vanderbilt this weekend for a game that is huge for both of them. Vandy has started 2-0, but they have not played very good competition. Ole Miss has played the best competition of the two teams when they lost to BYU. BYU took Texas to the wire, but I am still not sold on them. This past weekend Ole Miss did not look good in a game they should have absolutely dominated. Vegas pretty much has this game as a pick game with Ole Miss favored by 1 point. Ole Miss has more talent, but I think Vandy has better coaching. Flip a coin to decide who you think will win this game. Around 3 o’clock on Saturday one team will be moving on with momentum and excitement. The other team will have some serious doubt. My coin flip landed on tails… tails was Ole Miss.
In order for Mississippi State to become the team/program they are trying to be they have got to figure out some way to get that little extra. It is so small, yet it is so big. Yes there were some borderline calls in this game that went against MSU, but the Bulldogs still had a chance.
Either way MS State lost a game they should have won and enter the toughest week of the season. They play, in my opinion, the best team in the country on a short week. I have been on this LSU team a couple of weeks now. They are super talented on defense. You will quickly understand on Thursday night what I mean about this defense/team. Line on this game is -3 to -4 depending on where you look. Dan Mullen needs his team to play the best game they have played with him as the coach. I am not writing Ms State off in this game. If Ms State plays a solid game this will be close football game in the 4th quarter. Maybe this time the Bulldogs will figure out how to get that little extra. No prediction on this game from me.
Week Two College Football
It was clear early in the Bama/Penn State game that Penn State was simply over matched. Every time Bama’s defense made a tackle they pounded the Penn State ball carrier. LSU and Bama may have the best two defenses we have ever seen. Between those 2 defenses there are 20+ NFL players. 6-8 of those players will be MAJOR contributors in the NFL.
Another strong SEC team that is somehow flying under the radar is the Florida Gators. They have not played a team yet that could challenge them, but that will change this week. Derek Dooley has Tennessee on the rise. Vegas opened this line up at 10, but it has gone down some to Florida -8.5. I feel this is high for a rivalry game, but Florida has a good football team. As of today I am putting them as the front runner for the SEC East.
I made a mistake last week saying La Tech was a conference game for USM. Their first conference game was against Marshall on the road this past weekend. I really don’t even know what to think about this game. I looked at the score of this game early and USM appeared to be rolling. USM scored on a long TD pass with 5:45 left in the second quarter to go up 17-3. After this they had 10 straight possessions that either ended in a punt, fumble, or interception. This was a really bad loss for USM. They were the better team and if they had cut their turnovers (6) in half they would have won the game. USM plays Southeastern LA this weekend. They will win that game and move to 2-1, but the Marshall game will haunt them for the rest of the year. After the SELA game USM plays Virginia and Rice, two teams that are better than I thought they would be going into the season.
Ole Miss travels to Vanderbilt this weekend for a game that is huge for both of them. Vandy has started 2-0, but they have not played very good competition. Ole Miss has played the best competition of the two teams when they lost to BYU. BYU took Texas to the wire, but I am still not sold on them. This past weekend Ole Miss did not look good in a game they should have absolutely dominated. Vegas pretty much has this game as a pick game with Ole Miss favored by 1 point. Ole Miss has more talent, but I think Vandy has better coaching. Flip a coin to decide who you think will win this game. Around 3 o’clock on Saturday one team will be moving on with momentum and excitement. The other team will have some serious doubt. My coin flip landed on tails… tails was Ole Miss.
In order for Mississippi State to become the team/program they are trying to be they have got to figure out some way to get that little extra. It is so small, yet it is so big. Yes there were some borderline calls in this game that went against MSU, but the Bulldogs still had a chance.
Either way MS State lost a game they should have won and enter the toughest week of the season. They play, in my opinion, the best team in the country on a short week. I have been on this LSU team a couple of weeks now. They are super talented on defense. You will quickly understand on Thursday night what I mean about this defense/team. Line on this game is -3 to -4 depending on where you look. Dan Mullen needs his team to play the best game they have played with him as the coach. I am not writing Ms State off in this game. If Ms State plays a solid game this will be close football game in the 4th quarter. Maybe this time the Bulldogs will figure out how to get that little extra. No prediction on this game from me.
Week One College Football
First thing I will say about the first week of college football is that I am just glad it is here. I was so tired of hearing about all the scandals, investigations, tattoos, prostitutes, etc. that was talked about in the off season. There are a little more than 14,000 football players in Division I. You have less than .1% of those people being talked about 99% in the off season. The media needs to get back to the positives of the other 99.99% of the players in college. That started by actually playing games. Even there though is scandal after scandal off the field. College football coaches and players are providing the best college football product ever right now.
Overall the SEC is still ridiculously good. Who didn’t see that coming?? The LSU defense wowed me on Saturday. Oregon has a good football team, but by the start of the 4th quarter they did not want anything else to do with the Tigers. Bama, Arkansas, Ms State, Florida, etc all rolled as expected.
Most people who read this will be interested in Ole Miss, USM, and/or MSU so I will talk about them. The Ole Miss coaching staff absolutely gave that game away to BYU. BYU did start to move the ball late on the Rebel defense, but I just didn’t see them giving up another TD on defense. The play that led to the fumble was POOR coaching by Lee or Nutt or whoever called the play. I don’t remember the exact distance. I think it was 3rd and 26 or 27. Did Houston Nutt really think they were going to get a first down by throwing the ball? In that situation you cut your losses, run the ball, and punt. The Rebels should still win 5 games, but Nutt is out in Oxford the first week of December.
USM was sloppy, but it was the first game and the conditions were beyond terrible. I would have said this same thing about Ole Miss if they beat BYU… A win is a win. USM should be able to go on the road to Marshall and get a conference win Saturday. Marshall got beat up on by West Virginia in a game that also had bad weather.
Memphis had no chance against Ms State. The bulldogs have too many weapons and could have scored 100 points if they wanted to Thursday. We see what the Bulldogs are made of Saturday with their first conference game. Auburn won a game they shouldn’t have over Utah State. Sometimes that is exactly what a team needs to get it going. Vegas has the Bulldogs favored by 7 on the road. I agree with Vegas on this. The Bulldogs win against Auburn and probably cover. HELLO LSU next Thursday!
Alabama is going to dominate Penn State on Saturday. Take that at -10 with everything.
Overall the SEC is still ridiculously good. Who didn’t see that coming?? The LSU defense wowed me on Saturday. Oregon has a good football team, but by the start of the 4th quarter they did not want anything else to do with the Tigers. Bama, Arkansas, Ms State, Florida, etc all rolled as expected.
Most people who read this will be interested in Ole Miss, USM, and/or MSU so I will talk about them. The Ole Miss coaching staff absolutely gave that game away to BYU. BYU did start to move the ball late on the Rebel defense, but I just didn’t see them giving up another TD on defense. The play that led to the fumble was POOR coaching by Lee or Nutt or whoever called the play. I don’t remember the exact distance. I think it was 3rd and 26 or 27. Did Houston Nutt really think they were going to get a first down by throwing the ball? In that situation you cut your losses, run the ball, and punt. The Rebels should still win 5 games, but Nutt is out in Oxford the first week of December.
USM was sloppy, but it was the first game and the conditions were beyond terrible. I would have said this same thing about Ole Miss if they beat BYU… A win is a win. USM should be able to go on the road to Marshall and get a conference win Saturday. Marshall got beat up on by West Virginia in a game that also had bad weather.
Memphis had no chance against Ms State. The bulldogs have too many weapons and could have scored 100 points if they wanted to Thursday. We see what the Bulldogs are made of Saturday with their first conference game. Auburn won a game they shouldn’t have over Utah State. Sometimes that is exactly what a team needs to get it going. Vegas has the Bulldogs favored by 7 on the road. I agree with Vegas on this. The Bulldogs win against Auburn and probably cover. HELLO LSU next Thursday!
Alabama is going to dominate Penn State on Saturday. Take that at -10 with everything.
College Football Predictions - MS Teams
Southern Miss (10-2) Best Case Undefeated Worst Case 8-4
Let me start by saying this.. USM has a joke for a schedule. You can’t predicted how all teams will be this year, but their predicted schedule strength is 112 out of 120 teams. They play 9 teams that ended last season with a losing record and one with a .500 record. The only team I see competing with them in the CUSA east is UCF. The game against UCF on November 12 will be the biggest game of the year for USM. You are definitely not a USM fan if you don’t go support your team that game.
I feel like USM will slip up against someone prior to their November 12th game. If I had to make a guess I would say playing Navy on the road will be the loss. The week after Navy they play SMU at home in a game that will be tough, but I think USM will take care of business in that one. I have USM beating UCF in the biggest game of the year on November 12, but I have them losing in a trap game the following week against UAB.
I predict USM will then play the C-USA Championship game at home against Houston. They will win this game and go on to play an SEC team in the Liberty Bowl. USM will then get to see what kind of team they really are. Nonetheless USM will have a season fans should be proud of. 10 plus wins is good no matter what league or division you play in.
Ole Miss (5-7) Best Case 7-5 Worst Case 4-8
Everyone knows about BYU coming to Oxford this weekend. This is an enormous game for Ole Miss. I really don’t know about the outcome of this game because there are so many question marks going into this season for Ole Miss. I want to say they will win because they are a SEC school with size and speed, but BYU has a good team. Vegas currently has BYU as a 3 point favorite. This means Vegas is saying they are a 7-10 point favorite on a neutral site. I will predict this game to be close, and if I had to pick I would say BYU will leave with the win in a nail bitter. After all is said and done this will be one of the best games of the weekend. As I said above this game is a huge game for the Ole Miss coaching staff, players, and the fans. A win here could bring the best case scenario above into play.
Ole Miss will then beat Southern Il, Vandy, Fresno State, Kentucky, and La Tech. The Rebels will compete in almost every SEC game they play this year, but I just don’t see them being talented enough to beat UGA, Bama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, or MSU. However, Ole Miss always gives LSU hell and that probably won’t change this year. I predict MSU to win the Egg Bowl, but that is a game where anything can happen especially if the Rebels or on the best case scenario path.
I have talked about the best case scenario for the Rebels a couple of times in this, but I just don’t see their season heading in the direction of 7 wins. All the questions and a top 20 strength of schedule appear to set up for a rough year in Oxford. With that being said Houston Nutt will be as John Hobson says Gawn. 2 straight losing seasons, 2 straight seasons without a bowl, and worst of all 3 straight losses to the Bulldogs will send Nutt packing. Two rough seasons in a row make the 2 Cotton Bowl victories seem like a decade ago. Who knows if firing Nutt will be the right or wrong decision, but I predict that it will happen.
Mississippi State (8-4) Best Case 10-2 Worst Case 5-7
I have struggled with this prediction for a couple of months now, but I have with my mind and some heart decided to go with MSU ending the season 8-4. The Bulldogs pretty much have 4 non-conference guarantees. Memphis should be improved this year, but I see the Bulldogs beating them by at least 4 TDs. Ms State will probably at some point in the game score TDs on 3 or 4 straight possessions, maybe more. The Bulldogs just have too much size and speed for Memphis to keep this remotely close.
The season for MSU then really begins with a trip to the Plains in a bloody mary game Sept 10. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs. I believe they will beat Auburn just because Auburn has so many question marks with the loss of almost everyone except Dyer. The Bulldogs then have LSU in Starkville on Thursday night. Entering this game with a 2-0 record will make Davis Wade Stadium the place to be. These big time Thursday night games have not been good for Mississippi teams the last decade. Will MSU stop the losing streak to the Bayou Bengals? I really have no idea, but one can only imagine that place if they get a win. I have this game along with Georgia, USC, Bama, and Arkansas as the toss up game for the Bulldogs this year. The bulldogs will win the 4 non conference games, Auburn, UK, and Ole Miss along with one other win against the five other SEC teams on the schedule.
Realistically MSU fans should be happy with an 8-4 season and a second consecutive bowl game. The offseason will be filled with questions of whether Dan Mullen will leave or not. I think the only way he leaves Starkville, is if Ohio State offers him their open job or Joe Pa finally hangs it up and Penn State comes calling.
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