I will be posting a full blog on Friday about the LSU/BAMA game, so I will not be talking about it much in this post. It will be a good read.
This was another weekend of top teams having close games. Clemson's loss to Georgia Tech eliminated them from the National Championship hunt. Stanford pulled out a nail bitter in triple overtime against a scrappy USC team. I don't believe Stanford and OK State will finish the season undefeated. I see Stanford losing to Oregon and OK State losing to Oklahoma. If both of those two things happen then it will be a mad dash for everyone to get into the National Championship game. The BCS standings are really showing their respect for the SEC. SEC currently has 4 teams in the top 10 of the BCS.
USM has broken into the BCS Top 25. The Golden Eagles enter November with 1 loss. USM should be a favorite in their remaining 4 games. Can USM finish the season with only 1 loss and play for the CUSA championship against Houston?? I think they will. An exciting question has been posed to me by several people over the last couple of weeks. If Houston wins out and goes undefeated they will get invited to a bowl game larger than the Liberty Bowl. This will leave the door open for the #2 CUSA team (USM) to get invited to Memphis to play one of the lower SEC teams (MSU). Many things have to fall into place for this to happen, but with a month left in the season there is a possibility of a MSU/USM Liberty Bowl. That would spark some serious interest within the state of Mississippi.
Ole Miss played another good 1st half of football. Only problem with that is they played another equally bad 2nd half of football. In my time both being around and playing football I learned that the most coaching is done at halftime. Teams that consistently win have coaches that make adjustments at halftime that allow them to come out in the second half and execute. What I am saying is that Houston Nutt has absolutely been out coached the last three weeks by Saban, Petrino, and Chizik. The third quarter for Ole Miss has been brutal the last 3 weeks. The Rebels have been out scored 61-0 in the 3rd quarter. Good news this week for Ole Miss is that they play Kentucky. I have Kentucky as the worst team in the SEC. Las Vegas has Ole Miss as a 1 point favorite. Value index shows Kentucky should be a 2.5 point favorite. Question of the week?? Can the Rebels get their first SEC win of the year in Lexington? I think they will get their last win of the year this weekend.
Mississippi State did exactly what they needed to do this past weekend... go to Kentucky and find a way to win. The offense for MS State continues to drive me crazy with mistakes. The Bulldogs should have won this game by 4 touchdowns. State committed 3 turnovers. You will not consistently win in the SEC doing that. As I predicted last week the defense kept the Bulldogs head above water. Two fumbles were inside the MSU 25 yard line. The defense stepped up and held UK to field goals. Even with all the negative during the game State got the W. This week the Bulldogs will get another W against a team that should not even be able to step foot on the same field. MSU will blast UT-Martin this weekend with an offense that will look more like what we expected to see this year. Maybe a game like this will get the train back on the tracks... too bad Bama will be knocking that train back off the tracks next week.
Other Thoughts:
The game of the century is completely overshadowing another great football game this weekend. South Carolina goes to Arkansas this weekend for a match up between 2 top 10 BCS teams. No one has talked about this game because of the LSU/BAMA game. Line on this game is currently Arkansas -5.
You will need to read my blog post Friday about LSU/BAMA to see my prediction on that game. I have a pretty strong opinion about one team in this game. The line currently sits at BAMA -5. I think this is a favorite Vegas line for home teams in the SEC in an evenly matched game.
The Houston/UAB line opened at 24, but it quickly jumped to 27.5-28. If you are able to get this line at anything under 28 get on it hard!
Kansas State is going to complete a fall much like Florida did earlier in the season. They entered the top 10 just in time to face two superior opponents. Oklahoma bounced back against KSU last week with a blow out. Line on this game currently sits at 21. Oklahoma State just has too much offense for KSU to keep this one close.
Tony LaRussa retired only a few days after winning the World Series. LaRussa has either coached or played baseball for 48 years. He went out on top of the baseball world! Everyone should respect that.
Thank you for reading and I hope everyone enjoys the weekend. Please continue to send me comments/ideas/suggestions/etc.
Wally
Monday, October 31, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Week 8 Analysis/Week 9 Preview
Oklahoma and Wisconsin both lost their chance of a National Championship this past weekend with losses. Wisconsin lost to a quality opponent on a last second play, but it is still a loss. The loss for Oklahoma was inexcusable. They lost to a signficantly inferior opponent at home. College football is anything but predictable which was proven this past weekend. That is one of the things that makes it so great. At the end of the year there will be 3 or 4 unbeaten teams meaning it will be hard for a 1 loss non SEC school to get a chance at the title. The SEC will have an unbeaten this year, but even if it didn't they would still deserve a shot to defend the title. I believe the only way a SEC school doesn't win the championship is if there isn't a team playing for it.
SMTTT..... I have always thought this was kind of a stupid slogan, but right now Southern Miss is rising to the top. USM fans don't bash me with hate mail about knocking your slogan. I am a MSU fan and I think the Maroon/White chant MSU does is beyond stupid. With all that being said USM deserves their top 25 ranking this week. They are top 25 in scoring offense and defense. I realize that the strength of schedule for USM is much higher than that of MSU/Ole Miss. As of today USM has the 77th ranked SOS, MSU #32, and Ole Miss is a brutal #10. What I say to that is who cares... You still have to win games and USM has done that. Southern Miss travels to UTEP this weekend as a 10 point favorite. USM has to find some way to not fall into a trap this game. If USM gets up for the game they will win by 3 touchdowns. If they come out flat they could be coming back to MS with a bad loss.
Heartbreak losses like Ole Miss experienced Saturday in Oxford are really bad for the immediate season but pretty good for growth into the future. Too bad Houston Nutt won't be a part of that future. The Rebels have some serious young talent at WR. The guys Ole Miss have at receiver are future NFL players. They are the kind of people that can win games for the Rebels in the next couple of years. The good news for Ole Miss this week is that the talent level of the team they are playing is significantly downgraded. Rebels are a 10.5 point underdog on the Plains this weekend. I have a prediction that Ole Miss only wins 1 more game this year, so I obviously don't see them winning at Auburn Saturday night.
The Forward Rebels movement is gaining more and more steam with every Ole Miss loss. Their mission to get Pete Boone and Chancellor Jones fired does not appear to be dying down anytime soon. I will say the same thing I have always said about this. Those two guys have never called a single play at any sporting event for Ole Miss. However, after talking to many Ole Miss fans whose opinions I respect I feel like a change from top to bottom may be necessary in Oxford. The most shocking thing to me about the actions this week was how well written the letter from Jerrell Powe was. Everything from the format to the spelling was flawless. I truthfully don't believe he wrote that letter, and I know many other people are thinking the same thing whether they admit it or not.
The bye week for MS State could not have come at a better time in the year. The Bulldogs needed the week off to get healthy and to try to work out some of the problems on offense. Ms State has a two game stretch that are must win games. I bashed the Ms State offense last week, and if I started talking about them this week it would be much of the same. Since that is the case I am going to focus on the defense. This Ms State defense has quietly become a pretty good unit. They currently rank 17th in the nation in points per game. Kentucky comes into this game with one of the worst offenses in the nation (116th in scoring and 118th in total yards). This is all good news for a desperate Ms State team. I look for the MS State defense to control the game Saturday. Bulldogs will get a win in a game that probably won't be pretty to watch.
Several Other Notes:
I will be doing a full blog next week on the LSU/Bama game. Espn has already said they are arriving in Tuscaloosa on Thursday to start coverage. CBS has moved the game to Saturday night. This game is basically the National Championship. I hope it lives up to the hype.
Interesting thing for this weekend is that all three spreads for the MS teams are right around 10. USM/MSU favorites/Ole Miss underdog
I am officially on the Stanford Cardinal bandwagon. They are not only undefeated, but they are undefeated against the spread. That is impressive.
I was happy to see Notre Dame lose again. Maybe now they will finally stop talking about them going to a BCS game.
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail party is this weekend. If Brantley can't play then the Gators have no shot. I don't see the Gators winning this game even if he comes back because they will not be back to normal with him being off for a few weeks. UGA wins this game and sets themself up with a chance to come in the back door for the SEC East championship. This game doesn't have a line because Vegas is waiting to see about Brantley. My line is without Brantley UGA -10 and with Brantley UGA -2.5.
I hope everyone has a great weekend! Thank you all for reading. Please continue to email me your thoughts because I enjoy reading them even if you disagree with me.
Wally
SMTTT..... I have always thought this was kind of a stupid slogan, but right now Southern Miss is rising to the top. USM fans don't bash me with hate mail about knocking your slogan. I am a MSU fan and I think the Maroon/White chant MSU does is beyond stupid. With all that being said USM deserves their top 25 ranking this week. They are top 25 in scoring offense and defense. I realize that the strength of schedule for USM is much higher than that of MSU/Ole Miss. As of today USM has the 77th ranked SOS, MSU #32, and Ole Miss is a brutal #10. What I say to that is who cares... You still have to win games and USM has done that. Southern Miss travels to UTEP this weekend as a 10 point favorite. USM has to find some way to not fall into a trap this game. If USM gets up for the game they will win by 3 touchdowns. If they come out flat they could be coming back to MS with a bad loss.
Heartbreak losses like Ole Miss experienced Saturday in Oxford are really bad for the immediate season but pretty good for growth into the future. Too bad Houston Nutt won't be a part of that future. The Rebels have some serious young talent at WR. The guys Ole Miss have at receiver are future NFL players. They are the kind of people that can win games for the Rebels in the next couple of years. The good news for Ole Miss this week is that the talent level of the team they are playing is significantly downgraded. Rebels are a 10.5 point underdog on the Plains this weekend. I have a prediction that Ole Miss only wins 1 more game this year, so I obviously don't see them winning at Auburn Saturday night.
The Forward Rebels movement is gaining more and more steam with every Ole Miss loss. Their mission to get Pete Boone and Chancellor Jones fired does not appear to be dying down anytime soon. I will say the same thing I have always said about this. Those two guys have never called a single play at any sporting event for Ole Miss. However, after talking to many Ole Miss fans whose opinions I respect I feel like a change from top to bottom may be necessary in Oxford. The most shocking thing to me about the actions this week was how well written the letter from Jerrell Powe was. Everything from the format to the spelling was flawless. I truthfully don't believe he wrote that letter, and I know many other people are thinking the same thing whether they admit it or not.
The bye week for MS State could not have come at a better time in the year. The Bulldogs needed the week off to get healthy and to try to work out some of the problems on offense. Ms State has a two game stretch that are must win games. I bashed the Ms State offense last week, and if I started talking about them this week it would be much of the same. Since that is the case I am going to focus on the defense. This Ms State defense has quietly become a pretty good unit. They currently rank 17th in the nation in points per game. Kentucky comes into this game with one of the worst offenses in the nation (116th in scoring and 118th in total yards). This is all good news for a desperate Ms State team. I look for the MS State defense to control the game Saturday. Bulldogs will get a win in a game that probably won't be pretty to watch.
Several Other Notes:
I will be doing a full blog next week on the LSU/Bama game. Espn has already said they are arriving in Tuscaloosa on Thursday to start coverage. CBS has moved the game to Saturday night. This game is basically the National Championship. I hope it lives up to the hype.
Interesting thing for this weekend is that all three spreads for the MS teams are right around 10. USM/MSU favorites/Ole Miss underdog
I am officially on the Stanford Cardinal bandwagon. They are not only undefeated, but they are undefeated against the spread. That is impressive.
I was happy to see Notre Dame lose again. Maybe now they will finally stop talking about them going to a BCS game.
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail party is this weekend. If Brantley can't play then the Gators have no shot. I don't see the Gators winning this game even if he comes back because they will not be back to normal with him being off for a few weeks. UGA wins this game and sets themself up with a chance to come in the back door for the SEC East championship. This game doesn't have a line because Vegas is waiting to see about Brantley. My line is without Brantley UGA -10 and with Brantley UGA -2.5.
I hope everyone has a great weekend! Thank you all for reading. Please continue to email me your thoughts because I enjoy reading them even if you disagree with me.
Wally
Monday, October 17, 2011
Week 7 Analysis/Week 8 Preview
The first BCS rankings of the year came out this week. The top 3 are in line with how I would put them(LSU/Bama/Oklahoma). Once you get past the top 3 you could really draw out of a hat for the next 4 or 5 spots. At this point in the season I agree with the poll having LSU at #1. Both Bama and LSU have looked impressive, but the Tigers have just played a tougher schedule up to this point than Bama. The great thing about this is that the rankings really don't matter because Bama and LSU play each other. Everything will be solved on the field instead of by some pencil pushing sports writers.
As I said last week USM has their biggest game of the year this Saturday against SMU, 7PM on CBS Sports Network. The Golden Eagles came out as 3.5 point favorite in this game. The line currently sits at 3. I don't see this line moving much if any between now and the game. This will be USM's toughest challenge yet. SMU comes into this game at 5-1 with their only loss to Texas A&M the first game of the year. SMU can score points (33rd in nation) and keep their opponents from scoring (23rd in nation). USM is pretty good statistically on both sides of the ball too, Offense (19th) and Defense (38th). Stats are a good indicator of what kind of team you have at this point in the year because every team has played enough games to get a good average. Stats show this being a close game. I'm saying this will be one of the best games of the weekend. If you are a USM fan then GO, but if you are a football fan you should at least watch this game. See what the current best team in MS has to offer.
Things for Ole Miss have gone from bad to worse to terrible. The bad for the Rebels this week, they got hit pretty hard by injuries against Bama. Two starting defensive players were lost for the season from a unit that is already thin at many positions. The worse for the Rebels this week, is that they are pitiful on offense. The Rebels can not run or pass which is shown by them being ranked 117th nationally in total offense. The terrible for the Rebels this week, they play another really good opponent. Arkansas is not Bama, but they are a legitimate top 10 team. Line for this quickly jumped 2.5 points to 17 when it came out. The line currently sits at 16.5. This is a good bet even up to 21. Arkansas will score in the 40s, and I don't see how the Rebels can get to 20 points unless something crazy happens. The Rebels may not get to 4 wins this year. Rebels needs to start figuring out where they are going to get the 6 million+ it will take to fire the staff in Oxford
The only positive for Ole Miss fans right now is that the situation in Starkville is far from good. Every person in the stadium Saturday knew that South Carolina was going to throw the ball to Alshon Jeffery on their last TD. Banks should be covering Jeffery in that situation with help. I see negative after negative on offense when I watch MS State play. The center snaps the ball back to the quaterback in shotgun like a high school center. The ball wabbles back to the qb and half the time it is off target. This is the SEC and that is not acceptable. The center did not even have anyone lined up on him so that excuse is out. The snap should be a spiral quickly back to the qb right in his chest. Many of MSU's plays out of shotgun are timing plays and the pathetic snaps throw everything off. I can't imagine how bad the snaps will be when Bama has someone lined up in the A gap. Bad snaps lead to my next statement about the offense. Ms State had at least 8 wasted plays on offense Saturday. When I say wasted I mean plays that have a fumble/bad snap, a player running the wrong route/direction, etc. Every play is precious and you can't have 10-15% of them wasted. Good news for MSU is that they have an off week followed by games against two opponents that they SHOULD beat. Defense is playing really solid football right now, but the offense has some major problems. The Bulldogs have got to get better on offense in the off week.
A Few notes:
I currently believe USM has the best football team in MS.
Realignment has taken a weird turn.. Boise State going to the Big East?? That makes no sense at all.
The Wisconsin/Mich State game should be a good game, if there is such a thing in the Big 10 anymore. Wisconsin has a high powered offense and Mich State has a top 5 defense. Something has to give in this game. I think it is the Mich State defense.
TCU is a 41 point favorite. I like TCU as a football team/program, but New Mexico must be terrible to get a line this high. A 40+ point spread at this point in the year is typically a good underdog bet.
The World Series starts tonight on Fox. MLB has lost some of its luster in the last few years for several reasons... Extremely long seasons, public knowledge of scandals involving HGH/steroids, and the rise of football popularity to a level no one has seen before. With all that being said both college and pro baseball are providing a quality product on the field right now. Sit down for a little while during this series and watch a little baseball. You won't be disappointed. My pick is for the Rangers to win in 6 games.
Thanks for reading. Please continue to email me any comments or suggestions. I enjoy reading what other people think Wally146@aol.com
Wally
As I said last week USM has their biggest game of the year this Saturday against SMU, 7PM on CBS Sports Network. The Golden Eagles came out as 3.5 point favorite in this game. The line currently sits at 3. I don't see this line moving much if any between now and the game. This will be USM's toughest challenge yet. SMU comes into this game at 5-1 with their only loss to Texas A&M the first game of the year. SMU can score points (33rd in nation) and keep their opponents from scoring (23rd in nation). USM is pretty good statistically on both sides of the ball too, Offense (19th) and Defense (38th). Stats are a good indicator of what kind of team you have at this point in the year because every team has played enough games to get a good average. Stats show this being a close game. I'm saying this will be one of the best games of the weekend. If you are a USM fan then GO, but if you are a football fan you should at least watch this game. See what the current best team in MS has to offer.
Things for Ole Miss have gone from bad to worse to terrible. The bad for the Rebels this week, they got hit pretty hard by injuries against Bama. Two starting defensive players were lost for the season from a unit that is already thin at many positions. The worse for the Rebels this week, is that they are pitiful on offense. The Rebels can not run or pass which is shown by them being ranked 117th nationally in total offense. The terrible for the Rebels this week, they play another really good opponent. Arkansas is not Bama, but they are a legitimate top 10 team. Line for this quickly jumped 2.5 points to 17 when it came out. The line currently sits at 16.5. This is a good bet even up to 21. Arkansas will score in the 40s, and I don't see how the Rebels can get to 20 points unless something crazy happens. The Rebels may not get to 4 wins this year. Rebels needs to start figuring out where they are going to get the 6 million+ it will take to fire the staff in Oxford
The only positive for Ole Miss fans right now is that the situation in Starkville is far from good. Every person in the stadium Saturday knew that South Carolina was going to throw the ball to Alshon Jeffery on their last TD. Banks should be covering Jeffery in that situation with help. I see negative after negative on offense when I watch MS State play. The center snaps the ball back to the quaterback in shotgun like a high school center. The ball wabbles back to the qb and half the time it is off target. This is the SEC and that is not acceptable. The center did not even have anyone lined up on him so that excuse is out. The snap should be a spiral quickly back to the qb right in his chest. Many of MSU's plays out of shotgun are timing plays and the pathetic snaps throw everything off. I can't imagine how bad the snaps will be when Bama has someone lined up in the A gap. Bad snaps lead to my next statement about the offense. Ms State had at least 8 wasted plays on offense Saturday. When I say wasted I mean plays that have a fumble/bad snap, a player running the wrong route/direction, etc. Every play is precious and you can't have 10-15% of them wasted. Good news for MSU is that they have an off week followed by games against two opponents that they SHOULD beat. Defense is playing really solid football right now, but the offense has some major problems. The Bulldogs have got to get better on offense in the off week.
A Few notes:
I currently believe USM has the best football team in MS.
Realignment has taken a weird turn.. Boise State going to the Big East?? That makes no sense at all.
The Wisconsin/Mich State game should be a good game, if there is such a thing in the Big 10 anymore. Wisconsin has a high powered offense and Mich State has a top 5 defense. Something has to give in this game. I think it is the Mich State defense.
TCU is a 41 point favorite. I like TCU as a football team/program, but New Mexico must be terrible to get a line this high. A 40+ point spread at this point in the year is typically a good underdog bet.
The World Series starts tonight on Fox. MLB has lost some of its luster in the last few years for several reasons... Extremely long seasons, public knowledge of scandals involving HGH/steroids, and the rise of football popularity to a level no one has seen before. With all that being said both college and pro baseball are providing a quality product on the field right now. Sit down for a little while during this series and watch a little baseball. You won't be disappointed. My pick is for the Rangers to win in 6 games.
Thanks for reading. Please continue to email me any comments or suggestions. I enjoy reading what other people think Wally146@aol.com
Wally
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Week 6 Analysis/Week 7 Preview
First thing I want to talk about is how ridiculous top 25 polls are. Florida currently sits outside of the top 25 at around 26 or 27. Florida lost to the best two teams in the country the previous two weeks. They went from being ranked 12th to 26th after losing to the Number 1A and 1B teams in the nation. My argument isn't whether Florida should or shouldn't be ranked. My argument is that if these sports writers felt like Florida was the 12th best team in the nation two weeks ago then how does losing to Bama and LSU make them think they are now the 26th best team. Another note about the top 25 is Michigan is ranked 10th or 11th depending on which poll you look at. This is a joke. Michigan has played no body (Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and ND. I predict it right now... Michigan will have a 9-10 win season. They will then go to a bowl game and play an SEC team that will smash them.
Southern Miss is rolling. I feel like the current bye week comes at a bad time for the Golden Eagles. Bye weeks are tricky situations. When a team is playing good ball a bye week can be a step back. However, if a team is struggling with consistency and injuries a bye week can be a positive. USM does have some players injured, but every team has that this time of year. This week needs to be used to get some fundamentals fixed and some players healthy. Next week USM has a huge game against SMU. SMU is back on the map. The death penalty they received from the NCAA in the mid 80s took them 20+ years to recover from. The biggest game of the year for USM is next Saturday. If you claim to be a USM fan you should go to Hattiesburg and support your team for this game.
Saying Ole Miss has a tough game this week is an understatement. They are basically playing a NFL team in Oxford on Saturday(5PM CT ESPN2). Ole Miss has absolutely no chance in this game. The Alabama defense enters this game only giving up an average of 7 points a game and 37.7 rushing yards. Both of those stats are ranked number 1 in the nation by a long shot. Ole Miss enters the game with the 99th ranked rushing offense at 115.6 yards per game. The Rebels will not be able to get anything going on the ground making them one dimensional on offense. The Bama defense will produce 3+ turnovers and blow the Rebels out. Spread on this game currently sits at Bama -25. Take this bet, because this could be a 5 touchdown game. I don't mean any disrespect to Ole Miss by the above comments. The simple fact is that Bama is just that good.
South Caroline comes to Starkville this weekend for an early kick (11AM CT SEC Network - CBS local). Every game for the remainder of the season is important for MS State because wins become precious this time of year. The early season thoughts of a potential 8 win season are long gone. Bulldogs need to figure out some way to get 3 more wins. It does not matter who they are against. There is potential in the schedule for this to happen, but it will take MSU playing better football. Last week proved there is a quarterback controversy in Starkville. Relf or Russell? Someone that makes a lot more money than I do has to make that decision. MSU may not have won Saturday if it were not for the change at quarterback. This has been a weird year for both MSU and USC. Each of these teams had high expectations for their offenses, but the defenses for both teams has been the better unit up to this point in the season. Spread for this game opened at USC -5. It currently sits at 3 points. I like the Gamecocks in this game at -3, but I will be happy if the Bulldogs pull out a victory.
Few extra comments:
In the way too early to look at category... Bama is a 6.5 point favorite over LSU for their game Nov 5th.
Oklahoma State came out as a 5.5 point favorite over Texas. This line is currently between 7 and 8. I really liked this line at 5.5 - 7. Over 7 makes this a little tougher to say I really like. However I think this is a good bet even if the line gets up around 10. This line is under 10 simply because it is Texas.
Highest line for the weekend is Oklahoma -34 against Kansas. I enjoy looking at the highest line every weekend because typically it is a good underdog bet. This would not be a good underdog bet. Oklahoma will hang 50+ on Kansas.
As always I appreciate you reading this. Email me any thoughts, comments, or ideas because I enjoy hearing people's responses... Wally146@aol.com
Wally
Southern Miss is rolling. I feel like the current bye week comes at a bad time for the Golden Eagles. Bye weeks are tricky situations. When a team is playing good ball a bye week can be a step back. However, if a team is struggling with consistency and injuries a bye week can be a positive. USM does have some players injured, but every team has that this time of year. This week needs to be used to get some fundamentals fixed and some players healthy. Next week USM has a huge game against SMU. SMU is back on the map. The death penalty they received from the NCAA in the mid 80s took them 20+ years to recover from. The biggest game of the year for USM is next Saturday. If you claim to be a USM fan you should go to Hattiesburg and support your team for this game.
Saying Ole Miss has a tough game this week is an understatement. They are basically playing a NFL team in Oxford on Saturday(5PM CT ESPN2). Ole Miss has absolutely no chance in this game. The Alabama defense enters this game only giving up an average of 7 points a game and 37.7 rushing yards. Both of those stats are ranked number 1 in the nation by a long shot. Ole Miss enters the game with the 99th ranked rushing offense at 115.6 yards per game. The Rebels will not be able to get anything going on the ground making them one dimensional on offense. The Bama defense will produce 3+ turnovers and blow the Rebels out. Spread on this game currently sits at Bama -25. Take this bet, because this could be a 5 touchdown game. I don't mean any disrespect to Ole Miss by the above comments. The simple fact is that Bama is just that good.
South Caroline comes to Starkville this weekend for an early kick (11AM CT SEC Network - CBS local). Every game for the remainder of the season is important for MS State because wins become precious this time of year. The early season thoughts of a potential 8 win season are long gone. Bulldogs need to figure out some way to get 3 more wins. It does not matter who they are against. There is potential in the schedule for this to happen, but it will take MSU playing better football. Last week proved there is a quarterback controversy in Starkville. Relf or Russell? Someone that makes a lot more money than I do has to make that decision. MSU may not have won Saturday if it were not for the change at quarterback. This has been a weird year for both MSU and USC. Each of these teams had high expectations for their offenses, but the defenses for both teams has been the better unit up to this point in the season. Spread for this game opened at USC -5. It currently sits at 3 points. I like the Gamecocks in this game at -3, but I will be happy if the Bulldogs pull out a victory.
Few extra comments:
In the way too early to look at category... Bama is a 6.5 point favorite over LSU for their game Nov 5th.
Oklahoma State came out as a 5.5 point favorite over Texas. This line is currently between 7 and 8. I really liked this line at 5.5 - 7. Over 7 makes this a little tougher to say I really like. However I think this is a good bet even if the line gets up around 10. This line is under 10 simply because it is Texas.
Highest line for the weekend is Oklahoma -34 against Kansas. I enjoy looking at the highest line every weekend because typically it is a good underdog bet. This would not be a good underdog bet. Oklahoma will hang 50+ on Kansas.
As always I appreciate you reading this. Email me any thoughts, comments, or ideas because I enjoy hearing people's responses... Wally146@aol.com
Wally
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Week 5 Analysis/Week 6 Preview
The thing that once again stood out this past weekend was how dominant Alabama was. The Bama defense knocked out John Brantley a week after they made Bobby Petrino pull Tyler Wilson out of the game because he feared he would get hurt. This Alabama defense has at least 8 players that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft om 2012. They have many others that will be drafted in 2013, 2014, etc.
Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.
Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.
Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.
My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.
Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.
USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.
Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.
Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.
Wally
Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.
Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.
Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.
My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.
Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.
USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.
Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.
Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.
Wally
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