Week Four Mississippi College Football Preview

Things are not looking very good in Hattiesburg through two games.  This team possibly could be the first team in almost 2 decades to not make it to a bowl game if things continue the way they are.  One thing that has been constant basically over my lifetime is USM having winning seasons. 

The East Carolina game was won in almost every statistical category by USM except the one that matters and the one that leads to the one that matters.  USM lost on the scoreboard and in the turnover game.  The three turnovers came on the first three drives of the second half.  All three turnovers led to points by ECU and a win by ECU.  The USM defense really played pretty good only allowing 228 total yards to ECU. 

It looks like USM is struggling to run the ball (averaged 2.1 yards a carry against ECU).  They are having to put a lot more pressure on a freshman quarterback than they should because of the inability to run.  A true freshman quarterback can not win in any league without some help.  The experienced offensive line for USM needs to stop being soft.  If I were Ellis Johnson this week the offensive line would be hearing a lot of man to man talk.   

I think there is still time to steady the ship in Hattiesburg, but the time is NOW.  USM goes on the road this week to Western Kentucky as a 4.5 point underdog.  WKU is coming off a double overtime win against Kentucky.  USM has more talent that Western Kentucky, but they have problems in areas that are hard to overcome.  I hope I am completely wrong in this prediction, but I see USM losing by 2 touchdowns this weekend.  WKU -4.5 may be my pick of the week.  If USM gets rolled up by WKU this weekend then the crowds in Hattiesburg will be very slim the rest of the year.   

I will start with the bad with Ole Miss this week and lead into the positives.  People at this game had to have a sore neck Sunday from watching Texas go up and down the field so fast.  Texas basically did anything they wanted to do on offense in their massacre of the Ole Miss defense.  I thought heading into the season that the Ole Miss defense was going to be a really weak spot.  Their first true test exposed them, to say the least.  When I say Texas did whatever they wanted on offense I mean it.  They ran the ball for 350 yard and passed for 326.  One of those figures would have an offense saying they had a good game, but both have an offense saying we had a great game.

On to the bright spots for the Rebels.  The offense looked good again.  If you had told me before the game Ole Miss would score 31 points I would have said they have a legitimate shot of winning the game.  399 yards of total offense against a Texas defense that gives up yards is not great, but 31 points against a Texas defense that doesn't give up points is pretty good.  The Ole Miss offense will keep this football team in a lot of games this year.  They may even steal a win somewhere down the line for this team.  No matter what the outcome is in SEC play having a team score and compete is a lot better than the product Houston Nutt was providing last year.

Ole Miss has one more cupcake game playing on the road at Tulane Saturday.  After that the schedule is brutal, but that is for next week.  The game this week has numerous favorable matchups for Ole Miss.  The main favorable matchup is the Tulane defense vs the Ole Miss offense.  They are not very good on defense.  I give the Rebels a huge advantage in this matchup.  If the Ole Miss offense continues to move forward they could hang 50 on Tulane.

The line for the game this weekend currently sits at -17.5 (started at -15).  I really liked this line under 17.  I still like Ole Miss at the current spread because I think 42-21 is the final in this game.  3-1 to start the season is right where I expected the Rebels to be.  First step to getting a program heading in the correct direction is to win the games you are supposed to win.  Hugh Freeze is doing that so far.

The Ole Miss topic was ended by saying "win the games you are supposed to win."  To Dan Mullen's credit he has done an excellent job of this since he has been in Starkville.  The Bulldogs got a scare against Troy this weekend.  I really didn't expect it to be any different.  Troy has a good football team and this was the biggest game ever at Troy.  A win is a win, and I honestly don't think much into this game.  The two spots that looked below average are the wide receivers and the defense.  I really have very little doubt in these 2 units going forward.  This may have been the wake up call they needed.

Heading into the season I was worried about the offensive line for MSU.  I knew they had some guys returning and had younger guys ready to step up, but I had doubt.  This unit through 3 games has proved to be pretty solid.  The competition will get much stiffer, but the success in these early games will build their confidence.  Confidence in yourself and your teammates is critical when you get into the meat of the schedule.  

South Alabama comes to Starkville this weekend as a large underdog.  The line for this game is currently -34.  I like South Alabama against the spread because of what Dan Mullen does in these games.  If you have a maroon jersey on Saturday you will probably play a lot of plays.  Dan is not looking to embarrass smaller teams.  In these games his main goal is for the first group to play solid then to get as many people playing time as possible.  The younger guys playing late will give up plays, but the game experience they are getting is invaluable heading into the future.  MSU will score around 50 in this game, but I think USA gets a couple of tds and a field goal.  49-17 is my score prediction.

MSU sits right where I expected them to be through three games and it is a good spot.  After this week the Bulldogs will be 4-0 heading into a bye week.  Bye weeks are really tricky because they can hurt a team just as much as they can help.  This bye week is not going to hurt this team because they really have not played very well up to this point.  The coaches will have several game films to evaluate with the players.  The bye week will be used to clean up mistakes.  Not wanting to look too far into the future, but this could be a special year in Starkville.   

 




   

Week Three Mississippi College Football Preview

Southern Mississippi

Last week USM did not even play, but more doubt came into my mind about them with Nebraska losing to UCLA.  Nebraska was a 4 point favorite at UCLA.  The game between these two teams had very little defense.  You will not consistently beat good football teams if you average giving up 7-8 yards a play.  Basically my point is that Nebraska looked really good against USM and not so good against UCLA so I have to guess they fall somewhere in the middle.  They are in my opinion probably about the 30th best team in the country.

 

The question that arises this week about USM is how well did they utilize their early season open date.  USM has East Carolina at home this week in a 2:30 game that will be televised on CBS Sports Network (USM seems to play on this channel a lot).  The spread for this game is USM -8.  

 

Anthony Alford has been named the starting quarterback for USM heading into this matchup.  Ellis Johnson said this last week after naming Alford the quarterback..    

We looked at the tape and practice and so forth, the thing that gives us the best chance to move the sticks and to stay ahead of the down and distance right now and Anthony (Alford) is going to get the lead reps," Johnson announced. "I don't want him looking over his shoulder, second-guessing himself every other play, but he has got to play well, or we are going right to the next guy. Chris (Campbell) is getting the second-most number of reps right now and Ricky (Lloyd) is still getting some reps. We can't keep it on an even split anymore. We are into the season. The guy has got to get the job and he has to do the job. If he doesn't do the job, it is going to be the next guy's job.
 

My take on that quote is that he hopes he can believe in Alford, but he really doesn't.  If you are going to make a true freshman your quarterback, then you do not make the second part of that comment.  You stop and just say you have full confidence in him.  Not sure how this ends up for the USM offense, but my prediction is we may have a carousel at quarterback this year in Hattiesburg.  Getting Alford on the field early will pay off in the future... maybe even against MSU in 2014!

I fully expected there to be problems at quarterback this year at USM.  Losing a quarterback like Austin Davis is something you don't replace over night.  However, I expect all the other pieces that are in tact with this team to carry them.  USM needs to get the running game going this week (Alford can help).  The defense needs to step up and play more physical because what they did at Nebraska was embarrassing.  It is hard to say USM will steam roll anyone with the quarterback situation, but I don't see how USM doesn't beat an ECU team that does not even match up with them talent wise.

Mississippi State



Huge win last week for the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  They completely dominated Auburn at the line of scrimmage.  Auburn was not starting freshmen or sophomores on the lines either.  The Tigers had experience playing up front and the Bulldogs made them look like they were true freshmen.  You win in the SEC at the line of scrimmage.  It looks like to me that Dan Mullen and crew are building a football team/program that will compete with the big boys at the line of scrimmage. 

 

Countless people have said this week that Auburn is down.  No they really aren't down.  If the Tigers had Cam Newton this year they would probably win the National Championship again, but any decent team with Cam would do that.  The Tigers are not down.  They have a lot of experience and a lot of highly recruited players.  The Tigers have played two really good football teams to open the sesaon.  An opposing team that absolutely dominates you at the line of scrimmage will make you look bad.  Domination at the line combined with a really talented secondary will make any quarterback look bad.  Fact is the MSU defensive coaching staff took it to Auburn.  If you become 1 dimensional you will get exposed by a good defense, especially if all you can do is try to run.

 

Now time to knock the Bulldogs off their high horse.  This exhibit being put on by the Bulldogs special teams is atrocious.  The punting game is really good, but other than that everything else looks bad.  It really does not make sense to me either because this team is loaded with depth and play makers that should never allow a kickoff return.  A kickoff return can not happen again this year.  On to the kicker...  It looks like he strikes the ball really well when he kicks it, but he just can't get lined up.  This will probably get corrected, and Bell will make a crucial kick at some point this season. 

 

The Bulldogs finally got off to a start this season that will allow them to build more confidence.  Something really bad would have to happen for MSU to lose to Troy or South Alabama, but ULM beating Arkansas shows anything is possible.  I won't look too far into the future, but this could be a special season.

In order to try to keep the blog length down a little I won't be having anyone else write about MSU this week!

 

     University of Mississippi

The Rebels have done what they were supposed to do starting the season.  UCA and UTEP are really not a good measuring stick for a team in the SEC.  Those are games that you are supposed to win/dominate.  A real test comes to Oxford this week.  Everyone reading this already knows but Texas comes to town Saturday in a game that kicks really late, 8:15, on ESPN.  Oxford, the Grove, and Vaught-Hemingway Stadium will all be amped to the max Saturday, and the home field advantage will be in full force. 

 

This Texas team is not the one that was ranked top 5 every season, but they are still super talented especially up front.  There are only a couple of teams outside the SEC that have real play makers and Texas is one of them.  Texas also brings a swagger to Oxford that the Rebels have not seen yet this year.  The Rebels stepped on the field in their first two games knowing they were superior.  How do the Rebels respond stepping on the field being equal at best to their opponent?

 

This game is loaded with matchups.  The first and biggest matchup is the Ole Miss offense/passing game against the UT defense.  Texas comes into this game with the 8th ranked scoring defense.  Ole Miss comes into this game ranked 10th in the NCAA in yards per game.  Texas does appear to give up yards against their first two opponents, but they do not give up many points. Texas has NFL talent all over the field.  Defensive ends Jackson Jeffcoat and Alex Okafor both could be first round draft picks in the 2013 NFL draft.  The secondary is not bad either.  Everyone in Mississippi knows the name Manny Diaz because of his short stint at MSU.  Diaz is a great defensive coach.   Bo Wallace is proving to be better and better each week and is probably the saving grace for the Rebels this year.  The question is how does Wallace and the offensive line show in their first real test of 2012?  Another question is what receiver will step up this week?  Donte Moncrief will be double covered the entire game making it hard for him to produce unless he just makes a freak play.  He is capable of freak plays so never rule him out.    

 

Another interesting matchup in this game is the Rebels defensive front against the Texas run game.  UTEP did not have their starting running back in their match up with Ole Miss last week, but the Rebels have been tough up front in their first two games.  Texas comes in with a stable of running backs and an offensive line that is far superior to the Rebels first two opponents in talent and depth. 

 

The opening spread for this game was -13.5.  The current spread is down to -10.5.  I have said many times this year and in the past that anything can happen in a game, but when the spread is over 10 points an unbiased person can not pick the underdog to win the game.  It does happen and it could happen this weekend, but my pick is Texas to win by exactly 10 points. 

 

I wrote my post before the Trae Elston suspension came down.  I won't go into that because Les will tell you pretty much everything you need to know about it in his post but here is a link to the video of the hit... 

 

Trae Elston Hit

 

Les Penn is supplying us with the opinion of a Rebel fan this week.....  Big thanks to Les for taking the time to do this and for everyone who continues to read this every week.

 

Let's go ahead and get this out of the way, because, let’s face it:  there is no reason to dwell on things we cannot change.

 

Ole Miss DB Trae Elston made a textbook, highlight film, money making hit against UTEP and did not receive a flag for it. Monday evening, around 5pm, the SEC officials notified Coach Freeze that Trae Elston would have to serve a 1 game suspension for a hit that he wasn't even flagged for!   Agree or disagree, there is nothing anyone can do about it.  Well, actually, there is one man who could do something about it.  His name is SEC Commissioner Mike Slive, and you can call him at 205-458-3000 if you think you can change his mind. Good luck with that!

 

Let’s take a quick look back to last week’s game against UTEP.  Bo Wallace, or “Sunshine” (Remember the Titans), was good! He has an arm and is not afraid to take a little hit here and there!  SS/DB #25 Cody Prewitt is fun to watch. He plays the position like the SEC obviously hates it to be played…HARD!  He is on punt return, kickoff team, plays DB, plays SS AND brings the funk with him—hard nose guy! Jeff Scott is a game changer but, man, he is small; one has to wonder if he can hold up in the SEC! The 3rd qtr against UTEP was not what I would have liked to see. The Rebels had chances to put the game away and could not get points on the board. Decisions, such as kicking a 57 yard field goal, must be thrown out of our playbook, NOW!  Sure he can make a 57 yard kick in pre-game (hell, a lot of people could hit homeruns in BP), but that’s a little different than doing so in a game!  With that being said, Bryson Rose's 57 yard fg attempt landed at about the 20 yard line.  And in return, UTEP turns it in 3 points later. It was a fun game to attend, which I haven’t been able to say much during the past two years….even after attending a “should win” game!

 

Now, let’s talk about this week’s game.  The buildup is there, along with the team’s confidence, but can the Rebels play with Texas? For the first time ever, the University of Texas comes to Oxford.  100,000 people are expected to invade Oxford this weekend!   Although this game doesn't have the importance of the 2003 LSU game (western division title game Eli's senior year), it is being hyped up as the biggest game since then!

 

Texas enters this game #14 in the nation, and Ole miss is unranked and in the very beginning of, what we hope, can be a rebuilding process! I've said for the last few years that Mack Brown needs to be done at Texas! Texas doesn't have to recruit—players WANT to come there. Each year, while teams are out recruiting, Texas's class is already filled up and in the top 10 in the nation. I truly believe Texas has underachieved more than any program has in the last few years!

 

Monday morning, the Vegas line for this week’s game was Ole Miss +13.5 and, very quickly, went to Ole Miss +10.5. Many people, like me, see Ole Miss keeping this game close. Has Ole Miss played anyone yet?  One can argue, maybe, that the answer to that question all depends on how good Oklahoma is going to end up being…in order to really know just how good UTEP was. On the other hand… has Texas played anyone, either?  No, not really.  This will be the first test for both teams. Ole Miss Offense vs. Texas Defense seems to be the #1 story for this matchup! I'm sure Manny Diaz is confident!

 

In order for Ole Miss to have a chance, multiple things have to happen:  1. Bo Wallace and his receivers have to be on the same page, no mistakes; 2. The offensive line must hold off blocks long enough for us to run the ball.  If we can't run, I don't like Ole Miss's chances; 3. Defensive backs cannot get beat deep.   If they do, this will be a 42-17 Texas win.  What Ole Miss will have going for them is the atmosphere & home crowd— it's going to be packed and it’s going to be loud! Ole Miss is playing fast, and with a lot of confidence right now, and the Ole Miss faithful will play a huge role in the outcome of this game! If Texas takes an early 10 or 14 point lead, it will be interesting to see how Ole Miss responds. Will they lay down like years past with Houston Nutt or have the players all truly bought in to Coach Freeze, and will they continue to fight on no matter the score? Texas has a big advantage when you get to talking about depth, but If Ole Miss can control the game & tempo, then depth shouldn't play as big of a role as it could!

 

My prediction, this isn't a great Texas team, and this isn't a top tier SEC team playing the Rebels, the Rebels can win this one! Look for Ole Miss to feed off the sold out crowd and get ahead early! If Ole Miss can score first and keep the crowd as a factor, look for the Rebels to pull off the upset of #14 Texas!

Final:  Ole Miss  26 - 24 Texas

  

 

      

Read more here: http://www.sunherald.com/2012/09/06/4170288/alford-named-starting-qb-for-east.html#storylink=cpy

 

Week Two Mississippi College Football

Posts from here on out may be a little longer than normal, but I feel like the extra will be worth the read.  I will try to figure out how to get them shorter as the year goes on because I know that no one wants to read 20 pages... they won't be that long, but I'm just making a point.

 

 



Southern Mississippi

I will keep the post on USM short this week because they have an open date.  Southern Mississippi disappointed me as much as any team in the nation in week one.  I HOPE for the sake of USM Nebraska is better than advertised, but I am not sure that is the case.  I knew the offense was going to be a work in progress, but I had no idea the defense for USM was going to get steam rolled like they did, especially up front.  USM has this bye week then a couple of easy games before they get back into the meat of their schedule.  Time is on the side of the Golden Eagles, but they need to start improving.

 

Ole Miss

 

Ole Miss struggled a little early against Central Arkansas, but that is to be expected when you have a new offense and quarterback.  Hugh Freeze rallied the troops at halftime then the Rebels exploded on offense.  This week's opponent is a little different than Central Arkansas.  I have been saying since the schedule was announced that the University of Texas El Paso (UTEP) could come to Oxford and beat the Rebels.  UTEP played Oklahoma a really tough game.

The spread for this game opened at -4.  I personally thought this was a low spread at the time.  The spread currently sits at Ole Miss -7.5.  I anticipate that this spread will increase a little more before game time.

Biggest key in this game is the protection of Bo Wallace.  This is a critical part of every game for every team, but I want to give some reasons why its showing up more this week.  The Ole Miss offensive line struggled at times against Central Arkansas giving up 3 sacks.  You can argue one or two of those were not the lines fault, but either way a sack is a sack.  UTEP had success pressuring Landry Jones of Oklahoma.  I think it's fair to say that if UTEP got pressure on Jones with his line they are big eyed when watching film of the Rebels.  Bo Wallace is a SEC talent at quarterback.  If the line protects him he will make the necessary plays for the Rebels to get a win Saturday.



The Ole Miss faithful will know a lot more about this football team about 9 o'clock Saturday night.  Nothing I see says either team will run away with this game.  I think the offenses will score points.  The Rebels pull out the win in a NAIL BITTER.  I think a lot of points will go on the board in the second half so get ready for a roller coaster.

I have mentioned I was going to do something a little different this week and probably for the rest of the year.  I am going to insert a paragraph or two from other people whose football opinion I respect.  I will mix this up a lot.  This week I am getting the opinion on Ole Miss from and Ole Miss fan and vice versa for MSU.  At some point I'm going to get the opinion for Ole Miss from a MSU fan.  I had absolutely zero input into what the comments from other people are.  I wrote my comments first to make sure I wasn't persuaded one way or another because the people I am going to chose will make some great points. 

The comments for Ole Miss this week come from my cousin Tyler Cummins...

UTEP appeared to play Oklahoma a good game until late in the game (2 TDs in the 4th quarter). Seeing that Oklahoma is the #4 team, that's worrisome at first glance. Chris Cummins has a business friend he works with that is a former Oklahoma player. The OU guy said there's absolutely no way that OU should be ranked #4 this year and that the only reason OU is ranked that high is because they're OU (I found it funny that a fan, not to mention a former player, would say that about his own school. I thought outsiders were the only ones allowed to shoot those bullets). So maybe UTEP didn't really play the #4 team a good game, but regardless they still played a good game against a top 15 team. The final score was 24-7. The 7 points UTEP scored came off a turnover. I say that to get to the point that UTEP's offense didn't put any points on the board against OU. Despite that, UTEP's defense surrendered only 24 to OU. Holding a big 12 offense to 24 points is an accomplishment in my book. At this point I'm of the opinion that UTEP has a solid defense but a suspect offense. That's interesting because Ole Miss appears to be in the opposite boat - having a productive offense but a suspect defense. I believe the main reason OM won it's opening game against UCA was due to depth. UCA played OM a very solid game for one half but shortly into the second half OM became the dominant team and UCA appeared to be gassed.

Looking ahead to the weekend... The game depends on what type UTEP team shows up. If the same team that showed up against OU last weekend shows up this weekend, this will be a hard fought and worrisome game for rebel fans. Conversely, if OM jumps out to an early lead this Saturday, I see OM carrying the momentum throughout the game. This game worries me. OM will have to play sound football and catch all the breaks to win. UTEP's offense will not be shut out again and OM's offense will not score 49 against that UTEP defense.

Rebels 27

UTEP 24

Mississippi State

Final Play of 2011 MSU/Auburn game

 



The first week went as expected for MSU.  Jackson State is not a formidable opponent but MSU looked really good against the Tigers.  The Tiger opponent this week comes into Starkville with just a little more talent.  At 11 AM on Saturday the Mississippi State Bulldogs will arguably play the biggest game in Dan Mullen's head coaching career.  Everything is on the line for MS State this week.  If you are a fan of the Bulldogs you need to get up early Saturday and get to Starkville.  I truly feel like this game means everything for 2012. 

 

Last year at Auburn the Bulldogs got down early with bad decisions on special teams and penalties that lead to great Auburn field position.  The team came back strong and looked like they were on their way to an easy W.  Auburn then came back and the rest is history.  All that being said.. The Bulldogs have got to get off to a better start in this game than last year.. (First thing they need to do is get out of the tunnel on the field)





If Ms State can get going early the running game and defense have the ability to take over the game.  The Bulldogs pounded Auburn on the ground in last year's game.  Auburn got exposed on the ground against Clemson, so Dan Mullen and crew have to be game planning to do much of the same.        

Jackson State dropped several passes over the middle against the Bulldogs that Lutzenkirchen would have hauled in for huge gains/first downs.  Lutzenkirchen is the X factor for this entire game.  He is a mismatch for basically anyone on the MSU defense.  I look for the Bulldogs to jam him off the line with a defensive end.  After that they will either cover him man with a hybrid linebacker like Matt Wells or double cover him.  The problem with double covering him is you can't double him and Emory Blake at the same time.  Time for Banks and Slay to step up and shut Blake down by themselves.  Lutzenkirchen will put up stats in this game, but the Bulldog defense must find a way to contain him. 



I think these two teams are evenly matched heading into this bloody mary game. Vegas currently has MSU a -3.5 point favorite. The spread for this opened at -2, but it has slowly inched higher. Many early week media predictions had Auburn taking this victory, but as the week goes on the big boys in the media are weighing in with predicitions of MSU winning.

I think the Bulldogs are ready for this one.  They have lost heart breakers to the Auburn Tigers the last 2 years.  Those heart breakers have been a great motivating tool for this team.  I would guess that the name Auburn has been mentioned thousands of times in private with this team.   MS State and Mullen are due a break and I think it comes Saturday.  Get to this game early and get ready for a good one!                

 

The comments for Mississippi State this week come from the one and only Mr. Austin Owen...

1 yard or 36 inches. Either way you want to describe it, this was the difference between a win and a loss against Auburn last year. That doesn’t seem like a lot in terms of distance, but that 1 yard defined our season and it was only week 2. Ask any Ole Miss fan, and they will be quick to tell you that we have not beat any SEC West team besides them since Dan Mullen’s arrival in 2009. Since 2001, Auburn has a record of 10-1 over MSU. MSU’s last win against Auburn was in 2007, which brings me to my next point. It took Croom 4 years to get our program going in the right direction and finally take us back to a bowl game, this will be Dan Mullen’s 4^th year as the head coach and all of the pieces seem to be in place to make a run in the SEC West.

It is definitely a down year for Auburn, but if the past can predict the future, then MSU will most certainly have a tough game ahead of them. Auburn played up and coming Clemson this past Saturday, and with a new Offensive Coordinator they struggled showing an identity early on. They threw the ball 27 times completing only 11 for 194 yards and rushed 37 for 180 yards with 2 turnovers. Auburn will have to do a better job on 3^rd down situations, Saturday they were 4-13 in 3 down plays, and 0-1 on 4^th down plays. Auburn will have to protect the ball and control the clock if they want to win this game, if they can eliminate turnovers they have a legitimate shot and making the record 11-1 over MSU.

Mississippi State showed that its offense has been tailored to fit Tyler Russell and we will live and die by how well he plays this year. The WR’s for MSU have to create separation for Russell to have any success, this isn’t Jackson State, these are SEC DB’s and they will play man to man. Look for TE’s Green and Brandon Hill to have a big game, Auburns LB’s are weak compared to previous teams, if they can get past the LB’s then they should have the opportunity to make some plays. In the past, most people have said that if a d-line can create pressure, then the QB will make a mistake. That is true, but I believe that with the quality of our Secondary this year, Auburns QB will have to hold onto the ball a little longer than usual waiting for separation to occur and that will allow our Defensive line that much more time to get pressure on him. 

Going into Mullen’s 4^th year as a head coach, look for him to be more confident in his play calls and the identity of this team.

FINAL SCORE: Auburn – 20 MSU – 27