Ole Miss 2018

This football team will be very interesting to watch this year.  At times they are going to be super exciting for Ole Miss fans, but at other times they might be one of the most frustrating teams in the country.  The offense will be explosive and dynamic, but the defense will definitely be one of the worst in the conference (possibly the worst).  I would have liked to have been able to watch a scrimmage this fall because I know the offense had to roast the defense on the regular.

I feel like the schedule is not very favorable to the Rebels this year.  Their most winnable games are mostly on the road including their opener against Texas Tech.  I know that’s not technically a road game, but it is not at home. 

Coaching

Major credit should be given to Matt Luke and crew for the job they did in 2017.  They had all the chips stacked against them and ended up with a 6-6 record.  With mixed opinions Luke was named the full-time head coach.  I personally feel like that was the right decision considering the circumstances surrounding the program and the job he did on the field in 2017.

During the off season Luke has grown on me even more.  Freeze was so polarizing.  I don't think Luke would have done it any other way, but his only option was to lay low and just be a football coach.  I have no doubt that his players absolutely love him and that means so much when you are dealing with 18-22 year olds. 

If you have been living under a rock and have not heard the name Phil Longo you need to remember it.  From what I can tell Luke has made a great decision and basically turned the entire offense over to him.  He is a star in the making in the coaching profession.  I see no reason why he won't be a head coach in FBS.  It may be sooner than later after the ridiculous numbers they are going to produce this year.

Offense

This side of the ball will be explosive, to say the least.  8 of the 11 starters return from the 2017 team that was 21st in yards per game with 455 and 37th in points per game with 31.7.  The offensive line will be a really strong position group with a ton of experience, talent, and even depth.  I love teams that are strong up front because you win football games with the guys up front.  The skill players get all the accolades, but the big guys are where you win.

The passing game will be crazy good and probably will improve on the 314 yards per game in 2017 that gave them a ranking of 12th nationally.  Longo comes from the Mike Leach “Air Raid” coaching tree.  The offenses they put on the field regularly put up video game like numbers, especially in the passing game.  Combine that type of coaching with an unbelievable group of wide receivers and you have the makings of something special.  As good as I think the MS State defensive line is I think this receiving group is just as talented.  I could see Ole Miss gaining close to 5,000 yards in the air this year. 

 

The top rusher for Ole Miss in 2017 was Jordan Wilkins.  He currently is in the running to be the starter for the Colts this year.  Almost all the rushing production left with him, but I do not believe the cupboard is empty.  For starters, Ta'amu can run the ball.  You then have a talented JUCO transfer in Phillips and Eric Swinney.  Swinney has been unable to stay healthy, so there is some doubt with him(Swinney is currently out for at least 3 weeks with Mono).   I feel like it will be more of a running game by committee for the Rebels, but I think the production will be there.  It may have to be manufactured at times by using short passes, but there will be enough to support the dynamic passing attack.  If I were an Ole Miss fan I would feel very confident in your offense even with the question marks at running back.  

Defense

As good as the offensive side of the ball could be in 2018 the defense might be equally as bad.  Coaches are high on the starters especially Josiah Coatney, but no one knows what they have after the first group.  The defense is looking for Benito Jones to step up in a major way along with some others who can either stop the run or rush the passer.

The news gets bad when you get to the linebackers.  This is going to be the worst group on the team in 2018.  Ole Miss will be relying heavily on some young guys including multiple freshman.  This group must find some starters that can tackle, and they must stay healthy.  If both of those don't happen this defense will struggle mightily.  The Ole Miss defense ranked 125th against the run last year giving up 248 yards per game.  If someone doesn't emerge to stop the run in this group they will be right back at the bottom. 

The secondary looks like it will be the best position group on the defense, and it really doesn't appear to be close.  From what I can tell they have 8 players with experience.  There is talent on the back end.  I could see a few of these guys getting a shot at the NFL.  The secondary will be a bright spot on a defense that will really be looking for one.   

The defense for Ole Miss was ranked 117th giving up 471 yards per game and 112th giving up 35.6 points per game in 2017.  They lost several of their best players from last year.  It's hard to see them getting worse because the group was already at the bottom, but it's just as hard to really see much improvement coming from this side of the ball.  The defense was 13th in the SEC in 2017.  If they stay healthy they could jump to 12th, but I see them probably falling to last in the SEC in 2018.

Prediction

In 2017, I picked Ole Miss to go 6-6, and Matt Luke to be named the head football coach.  I thought they would do that without winning the Egg Bowl.  Vegas has them at 6 over/under for 2018.

Pick 6-6:  This is kind of the safe pick because siding with Vegas is pretty easy because they are fantastic at what they do.  I have no faith in this defense, but I have so much in the offense.  The offense will win a couple of shoot outs to get them to 6 wins.

Best Case 8-4: It would take drastic improvement from the defense to get here.  The defense would have to stay almost perfectly healthy and some of the young guys will have to emerge as play makers.

Worst Case 4-8:  If this team gets hit with some injuries early they would be underdogs in every SEC game they play this year.     

Mississippi State 2018 Preview

The more I look into this MS State football team the more excited I get.  As a fan, I have tried to temper my expectations because I am 100% aware of how difficult the SEC and the SEC West are every year.   With all that in mind this football team is pretty loaded.  They return almost everyone from their 2 and 3 deep (I would argue that they are gaining more from redshirts/freshman than they lost from 2017 team).  All of these players return from a team that won 8 regular season games and beat Louisville in their bowl game with half of a coaching staff and a freshman quarterback.  Look at the MS State roster and you see SR/JR at almost every position with pretty significant past production.  Phil Steele has MS State at #5 on his experience returning chart.    

Coaching

The elephant in the room for this football program heading into the 2018 season is the coaching staff.  Dan Mullen was great at MS State going 69-46 in his 9 years in Starkville.  He did things that many people thought would never be possible.  He raised the expectations in Starkville to an unprecedented level.  He boomed economic development both in the city and on the campus.  Some didn’t like Mullen, but at the end of the day he did a fantastic job at MS State.  After the dust settles he will forever be one of the greatest coaches in program history.  Dan jetted to Florida with Scott Stricklin, and after a very quick and efficient coaching search by John Cohen the Joe Moorhead era at MS State officially began on November 28, 2017.

Time will obviously tell about Moorhead, but every single person who has ever covered him, played for him, coached with him, etc. raves about him as a football coach, motivator, and leader.  UCONN won with him.  Fordham won with him.  He completely changed the trajectory of the Penn State offense when James Franklin hired him.  Many even go as far as to credit him with saving James Franklin’s job.  I personally think that is a bit of a stretch, but it has been said by multiple people.  The offense at PSU the last few years has been dynamic.  In 2017, they were ranked 18th in yards per game with 460 and 6th in points per game with 41.1.  Those are both strong stats against good defenses in the Big 10. 

The one thing I will say I have seen from Moorhead is that he has hired an extremely talented and/or experienced group of coaches.  Mark Hudspeth and Joey Jones both have head coaching experience in FBS.  Charles Huff is considered by many as one of the top young assistants in the country.  You can go down the list and every coach either has great experience/success or has been pegged by many as a future star.  Like I said above time will tell, but this staff looks solid. 

Offense

The Bulldogs were a power running team last year, and they were extremely successful at it.  They ranked 12th nationally in rushing yards per game with 249.   Every person that created that running game success returns in 2017 including an offensive line that returns 5 guys that started a game last year.   The Bulldogs will be able to run the ball against any team they play with 4-6 different people.

What this team must have to reach the next level in 2018 is some form of a reliable passing game.  As good as this team ran the ball they were equally as bad at passing it.  They averaged 158 yards per game which put them at 116th nationally.  The passing game was not very good against average opponents, and it pretty much was nonexistent against quality SEC teams.  You can not be one dimensional against good SEC defenses.  If the offense can have a few reliable receiving options emerge this could be a ridiculously explosive offense even against quality SEC defenses.

Question marks for this side of the ball are obviously the passing game and depth on the line.  Talk out of camp has been that both of these are trending positive.  I did not mention Fitzgerald's health because I have seen absolutely nothing that doesn't show him being 100%.  I also didn't mention the suspension because I think that will not impact the season at all.  It may impact Fitz's future and his NFL draft position, but he could play past that if he has a great year.  The 2017 team was 52nd in yards per game with 407 and 42nd in points per game with 30.6.  Moorhead has a proven track record of proficient offenses.  I see no reason why this team can't be better on this side of the ball in 2018. 

Defense

This defensive line is the best to ever roll onto the field in all the years I have been watching MS State football.  They have the chance to be the best in the SEC.  When you have the chance to be the best in the SEC you are certainly in consideration for best in the country.  The defensive front can go 3 deep with very little drop off at every single position.  This defensive line group could have 6 guys make NFL rosters one day.  This defensive line is going to destroy a lot of offensive game plans.    

This defense is not a one trick pony though.  They have players at linebacker and in the secondary.  Anytime you have 2 senior safeties you have to feel confident in their ability to lead and make plays. McLaurin has been given the preseason honors, but some have Johnathan Abram as a possible first rounder in the NFL draft.  Those second level players are going to benefit from a defensive line that is going to absolutely wreak havoc against opposing lines.

16 of the top 20 tacklers return from the 2017 team that was 13th nationally in yards per game allowed with 329 and 31st in points allowed with 22.7.  If you made me choose a spot of weakness on defense it would be small question marks at cornerback and depth at linebacker and the secondary.  I’m telling you that those are very small question marks.  I see this defensive being top 10 in the country.

Prediction

In 2017, I predicted MS State to go 7-5 while Vegas had the O/U at 5.5-6.5.  As stated earlier they went 8-4.  Vegas has set the line at 8.5 for this football team.

 

Pick 9-3:  As bad as I wanted to go with 10-2 I know how tough the SEC is, and I know how tough the Egg Bowl is.  I think the Bulldogs will go into the Egg Bowl with a record of 9-2.

Best Case 11-1:  This football team has a ton to be optimistic about in 2018.  I am not being a homer when I say I would not be surprised if this team goes 11-1, and you see MS State in Atlanta.

Worst Case 7-5:  This team has too much talent, experience, depth, etc. to go below 7 wins.  It would take a slew of injuries and some bone headed moves by the coaching staff to get below 7 wins. 

Southern Miss 2018 Preview

In 2017, I made a commitment to really research each of these teams I am writing about instead of just throwing out stuff that I thought.  I feel like it paid off last year, and that it will again this year.  My knowledge of each team, not just MS State, during the season was a lot better.  In 2017, I picked USM 7-5 (they went 8-4), Ole Miss 6-6 (they went 6-6), and MS State 7-5 (they went 8-4).  I obviously wouldn't bring this up if I had drastically missed those, but I feel like missing 2 by 1 game and getting Ole Miss correct was pretty good picking on my part.

Here are the predictions from each from 2017.  The only thing I was really wrong about was MS State and the Egg Bowl.
Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.
Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  
Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

I, like probably anyone reading this, am super excited for another fall of football!  You literally have hundreds of ways you can read about your football teams.  Some sources are excellent, but some are absolutely pathetic.  I appreciate anyone taking the time to read this, and I really do hope you get something useful out of this.  I hope all of you are safe in your travels to and from games.  I think this will be a fun year.    With that being said here we go....

Going into the 2018 campaign USM returns as little experience as almost any team in FBS.  The Golden Eagles only return 4 starters on each side of the ball.  This team lost a ton of production from the 2017 team on the offensive side of the ball.  The offensive line is where a bulk of the returning starters on offense are and if you are looking for a positive that is certainly one.  I have always believed that it is much easier to throw a younger skill player into the fire than it is an offensive lineman.  In 2017, USM returned a lot of skill players but few linemen.  This year is the direct opposite of last year.    Prior to Griggs being kicked off the team Phil Steele had them at #108 on experience chart.  I would think the loss of Griggs puts them in the 120s.  

   

Southern Miss thought they had an abundance of quarterbacks heading into spring, but that isn’t the case anymore.  Keon Howard transferred to Tulane this summer, and Kwadra Griggs was suspended from the team during fall training camp.  It appears that Jack Abraham will get the nod on opening day against Jackson St, but that position could be another revolving door much like it was in 2017.  Along with replacing their quarterbacks they will have to replace their top rusher and their top 4 receivers from 2017.  Southern Miss won’t be going to freshmen to replace all that production, but none of the guys stepping into starting roles have really produced anything at USM.  The 2017 team was ranked 42nd in yards per game with 420 and 66th in points per game with 27.8.  This side of the ball has so many more question marks than answers heading into 2018.  I really don't see how the offensive production can be better in 2018 than it was in 2017.

The defensive side of the ball comes into the season with almost as many question marks as the offense.  A bright spot for this unit is the linebacking corps.  This group is talented.  They have a shot at being the best in Conference USA, but around them are a lot of unknowns.  The secondary could be the weakest position unit on the entire team going into 2017.  They lost pretty much everyone on the back end.  This defense has both experience and depth questions which are both obviously not ideal.  The 2017 team ranked 24th in total yards allowed at 348 per game and 55th in points per game allowed with 26.5.  Jay Hopson is a defensive coach by trade, but I don’t see how this group won’t also go backwards compared to the 2017 team.    

It felt like I just blasted USM, but with all the unknowns and all the question marks I still have a ton of faith in their head coach Jay Hopson.  I think he is a really good coach that has been a winner everywhere he has been.  I feel like he will figure out how to get the most out of his players and get USM to another bowl game. 

Predictions

In 2017, I almost predicted USM to have 8 wins, but I landed on a prediction of 7-5 which is exactly what Vegas had predicted.  They hit the over with an 8-4 regular season.  They got hammered by Florida State in their bowl.  This year Vegas has a line of 6.5 for the Golden Eagles.

Pick 6-6:  USM has one of the easiest schedules in FBS, but with so many question marks I see USM losing all the obvious games and some they probably should win.  This team benefited from some close wins last year.  Take those off and they are sitting at 6 wins.

Best Case Scenario 8-4: If Jack Abraham or Marcelo Rodriquez can emerge as a playmaker at quarterback all the chips could fall into place for this team to reach 8-4. 

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  It would take abysmal quarterback play for this to happen.

Southern Miss has recently entered into a new partnership with Adidas.  

Mississippi State Preview/Prediction 2017

MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY

Dan Mullen is entering his 9th season as head coach at MSU.  That's really crazy to think about.  If you listened to the click bait websites like Saturday Down South or SEC Country he would be on at least his 5^th job by now.  Whether or not he was searching is irrelevant because he is still the coach at MSU, and he is a pretty dang good one.  Mullen is on pace to go down as the best coach in the history of the football program.  Bowl games, winning records, record setting players, Number 1, etc.  You name it and he has probably done it already at MSU.  It appears to me that he's really just hitting his stride as a head football coach.

Everyone knew last year would be a tough year because of the shadow Dak Prescott left when he graduated.  Dak will forever be a legend in Starkville, and it looks like he may end up being one in Dallas too. Dak leaving wasn't the only question mark.  The entire defensive coaching staff was new.  There were leadership questions all over the team.  Looking back on my prediction from last year I was obviously wearing my fan hat.  I have tried to step back and look at this team with a more unbiased opinion.  I've tried to find the positives and negatives.

Offense

Some media and fans have Nick Fitzgerald going to New York in December.  I'm not nearly that high on him because he has yet to show he can consistently throw the ball accurately.  He only completed 54% of his passes last year with a 2-1 TD/INT rate.  I watched him throw 5 picks in spring game in the first half.  Those are things from the past and a spring game is certainly nothing to base predictions on, but they have to be considered.  All that being said, this guy has unbelievable intangibles.  Big, fast, strong, rocket arm, vision in the running game, etc... This guy has the stuff you can't coach.  If Mullen can improve his passing accuracy and decision making then this guy could be everything some media are saying. 

Fitz is going to be helped big time by a stable of running backs.  The bulldogs are loaded with talent there starting with Aeris Williams.  Fitzgerald is also going to help himself in the passing game because teams are going to have to account for him running the ball on every play.  Fitz and Williams and possibly a 3^rd back in the backfield will be virtually impossible for any defense to defend.  The running game will be helped by an offensive line that will be much improved.  MS State should be able to run the bill at will against almost any team they play.

As deep as Ole Miss is at receiver MSU is equally not.  I'm worried about this group being able to both get open and to be able to catch the ball.  Someone has to emerge that can catch the ball other than Donald Gray.  This may come from a wide receiver or two or from the tight end position.  Mullen is saying he is going to expand the usage of the tight ends this year.  If he does that, those guys could fill a void left by the lack of wide receivers.  Everyone running routes will benefit from the run game that will be strong.

In 2016, MSU was 44^th in total offense and 56^th in scoring offense.  The only major weapon on offense gone is Fred Ross.  If Fitz can get some consistency in the passing game this group could be top 25 in offense.  It would take scoring 4-6 more points per game to get in top 25.  

Defense

Todd Grantham is a major upgrade from Peter Sirmon.  I have no idea how Mullen pulled this hire off, but he did and MS State fans should be happy.  The defense immediately got better with this hire.  The pathetic play from last year certainly wasn't all on Sirmon, but I think him and an entirely new staff were out coached many weeks.     

The defense is talented.  Simmons, Lewis, and McLaurin are players any coach would love to take the field with.  There is a really solid core at every level of the defense.  The other guys are the ones that will have to step up and play like they were recruited to play.  Guys likes Fletcher Adams, Montez Sweat, Gerri Green, Brandon Bryant, and Jamal Peters.. need to play up to their ability.  These guys along with many others have the skill, but none have played up to their ability yet.  

The defense looked like they didn't care on many possessions last year.  The effort was pathetic on many plays and drives.  That falls on coaching and leadership.  You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don’t bring it in college football you will get rolled.  The defense could be much improved if they just play with passion and effort this year.  

The defense was 110^th in total defense and 93^rd in scoring defense last year.  Just like with Ole Miss many of the same players return with new coaches especially at the top.  This side of the ball is one that really intrigues me and is the one that will decide which direction this season goes.

It is funny that over the years I have been watching football I would say MS State and Ole Miss perennially were better on defense than offense.  That has certainly changed over the last few years.  These teams have and will put up points older fans never would have imagined.

Special teams

Who knows about this category when it comes to kicking field goals.  All units of special teams will be really good except field goal kicking.  Talk out of Mullen and media is that there are several quality options to kick field goals, but we have heard that before.  It's anybody's guess how the field goal kicking will go.  I'm not optimistic at really any yardage... outside 40 I have little to no faith in the kicking going into the season.

Prediction

Vegas has the O/U at 5.5 but it is at -155 for over and +125 for the under.  Based on that this line should be at 6.5.  At 6.5 the odds would be close to -110.  I have really struggled with this win/loss prediction.  I have thought all numbers from 6 to 9 wins.  There are so many positives heading into the season, but I have a lot of question marks.  I think this team has the players to answer many questions, but I’m going to have to see it from them.

You will know all you need to know about this team by the end of September.  The schedule tosses them right into the fire with LSU at home then back to back road games to Georgia and Auburn.  There is a stretch in the middle where MS State should string together some wins.  By the time November gets here it is anybody’s guess.

Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

Best Case Scenario 10-2:  It would take a special season out of Fitzgerald and a defense that is top 25 to produce this outcome.  This really is a pipe dream.

Worst Case 5-7:  Another 5-7 season would be extremely disappointing for MS State fans.  It’s hard for me to see any scenario where this happens.  If would take MS State losing multiple games at the end like they did in 2016. 

Ole Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

University of Mississippi

No one thought in early July that Ole Miss would be entering the 2017 season with Matt Luke as the head coach.  Everyone reading this knows all about the drama that’s been going on in Oxford, so I’m not going to rehash all that out.  This a 2017 season preview not another bashing of Ole Miss or Freeze. 

Just like with Hopson at USM, Matt Luke is a Mississippi guy.  In fact, I would say Ole Miss is probably his dream job.  I don’t think he ever could have envisioned his dream job starting the way it has, but here he is leading the Rebels into the 2017 season.  Luke has been at Ole Miss since 2012, but he has zero head coaching experience.  From what I can tell no one on the Ole Miss coaching staff has ever had any head coaching experience.  In a league and division where there are established, experienced head coaches the coaching situation at Ole Miss is definitely something in question heading into the season.     

Offense

Losing Hugh Freeze is a major blow to the offensive side of the ball because even with all his many flaws he was a really good offensive coach.  Freeze had said he was going to let Longo call plays, but I didn’t really believe that.  Now it is definitely all on Longo.  Longo knows offense and knows how to call plays, but at this point in his career he just isn’t on the same level as Freeze was.  One thing Longo and Luke have going for them is that they have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

On paper it may look like the Rebels lost a lot with Kelly, Engram, Stringfellow, and Adeboyejo all gone, but they return a lot of play makers starting with Patterson.  Considering the situation Patterson played extremely well to finish the season in 2016.  The offensive unit will go as Patterson goes, and the sky really is the limit for him.  It’s not just Patterson though.  The Rebels may be as deep/talented at receiver as anyone in the SEC.  The Rebels will look to lean on the passing game, but the running game should be more successful.  The offensive line returns 7 or 8 from last year including 4 upper classmen.  Wilkins also returns to the team at running back.  I see a lot of positives and very few negatives coming from the offensive side of the ball for this team.

In 2016, Ole Miss was 26^th in total offense (yards) and 42^nd in scoring offense.  Those numbers need to be better in 2017 if this teams wants to have any chance of having a winning season.  I see the numbers improving and the offense being fun to watch, but will it be enough to carry this team?

Defense

This is the side of the ball that killed Ole Miss last year.  This unit was bad, really bad.  New defensive coordinator, Wesley McGriff, has his hands full because I see a unit that is limited heading into 2017.  Defense has some talented players up front in Haynes, Speaks, and Jones, but they are severely limited when it comes to depth at every level of the defense.  The front line guys are good enough, but in the SEC West you have to have depth, especially up front.

The weakest grouping on defense is far and away the linebackers.  I thought Ole Miss had the worst group of linebackers in the SEC last year.  Many guys are coming back, but I’m not very optimistic about them.  There is skill and depth at defensive back, but they are unproven.  More question marks…

In 2016, the defense was ranked 111^th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense.  Those numbers are a long way from the “Land Shark Defenses” from a few years ago.  This unit needs some guys to really step up, and they need the entire defense to remain somewhat healthy throughout the course of the year.  As good as I feel about Ole Miss on offense I feel equally bad about them on defense.

    

Special Teams

This is something I feel like Ole Miss can be confident in heading into the season.   Wunderlich was almost automatic last year.  He can handle all kicking duties if necessary, but Ole Miss has Gleason too.  Special teams could swing a game for the Rebels.

Prediction

Vegas has Ole Miss at over/under 5.5 wins.  It’s showing Over -135 and Under +105 which means they are leaning toward the over and this line could be 6.  I could see Ole Miss coming out of the gate hot with a 3-0 start.  Momentum will build in their bye week, but that will quickly be erased with six straight SEC games starting with trips to Bama and Auburn.  Those two road games, back to back, are brutal. How the Rebels play after those games is unknown, but I see the lack of defensive depth to start to take its toll in the middle of the season. 

The Rebels and the Saints will be similar to watch middle/late in the season with both scoring a lot of points, but not being able to stop anyone.  If you watch one on Saturday and the other on Sunday it may at times feel like you are watching the same game.  At times the games may look more like a track meet than a football game.

Most of the offseason I was leaning toward 5 wins, but I have settled on 6 wins.  You would think that number would have been lower with Hugh Freeze being gone, but I think the offensive side of the ball is talented enough to steal a game or two for Ole Miss this season in a shootout.  I could see Ole Miss play in a game this year where the total points is close to 100.

Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  

Best Case Scenario 8-4:  If this team can sustain the us vs the world mentality, gets many breaks, and stays healthy this best case scenario would come into play.  A lot of things would have to align for this to happen.

Worst Case Scenario 3-9:  It would take absolute disaster starting with a loss at Cal for this to happen.  A loss at Cal could really derail this team.  With everything going on off the field disaster is certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t see this happening.

Southern Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Prior to writing this I knew very little about USM head coach Jay Hopson.  I have heard his name mentioned countless times over the last few years in a positive light, but knew nothing beyond that.  I decided to go do a little research.  Hopson is a Mississippian..  Born in Mississippi, played defensive back at Ole Miss, has coached most of his career in the state of Mississippi, etc.  Hopson came to USM from Alcorn State.  Prior to him being hired at Alcorn State they were not very good, and that's probably being nice.  He completely turned their football program around and led them to back to back SWAC championships and a Black College National Championship.  If you win championships at any level of college sports you are a good coach.

USM returns 6 starters on offense.  Returning starters are almost all skilled position players including two of the best players in C-USA, Ito Smith (RB) and Allenzae Staggers (WR).   USM better be glad they have 2 quality, experienced players at those positions because quarterback and offensive line are major question marks.  The QB position might be a revolving door with Keon Howard, Kwadra Griggs, and true freshman Marcelo Rodriguez all battling for snaps.  As I am posting this USM has not settled on a starting quarterback.  It appears Howard and Griggs are the front runners, but Rodriquez has gained some attention.    Offensive line returns just 2 starters.  I believe USM will rely heavily on Smith because he is obviously very talented, and it’s just easier for an unproven offensive line to run block compared to pass blocking.  

The USM defense from last year is something I am having a very hard time wrapping my head around.  They were 15^th in the nation in total defense (yards allowed), but they were 74^th in scoring defense.  Those numbers do not make sense.  I didn’t watch enough USM games to know what happened, but it appears they either gave up a lot of special teams touchdowns or the offense turned the ball over in bad spots.  USM doesn’t return a lot of starters(4-5), but all projected starters are upper classmen.  That means there is obviously some experience there.  This is a very good thing heading into the season.  Hopson knows defense.  This unit has potential to be good.  If USM can get their scoring defense in 2017 in line with their total defense from 2016 then this side of the ball could carry the team.  

Special teams appear to be something the Golden Eagles are pretty comfortable with heading into this year.  Parker Shaunfield was very consistent as a sophomore making 12 of 14 field goals.  There is talk that Shaunfield may be taking on all kicking responsibilities.  Special teams look like they are going to be something USM has an advantage at in most games.

Turnover margin is one of the most important things in football.  Over the course of a year teams with a positive number normally have a positive record and vice versa.  In 2016, USM was 125^th out of 128 teams in this category.  USM was -17 on the year.  The defense has some blame for this, but most of the blame lies on the offense.  They turned the ball over WAY too much.  They turned the ball over 32 times in 13 games.  That is horrible.  Protecting the ball is something the USM coaching staff had to be pounding away at in camp.  The starting quaterback position could end up going to the guy that protects the ball the best.  

Vegas books have given USM an O/U of 7 wins.  There are a lot of people out there predicting USM to beat Kentucky in the season opener.  I don’t see that happening because 1. USM beat them last year 2.  USM has a lot of question marks heading into the first game starting with QB 3.  Kentucky has more talent.  USM beating Kentucky would surprise me.  I was leaning toward 8 wins for the season, but I am going with 7-5.  Going with Vegas is a safe pick, but that’s how I see it.

Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.

Best Case Scenario 9-3: This best case would start with a win in the opener against Kentucky.  This would set USM up for a conference championship and a pretty good bowl game, but with the good may come the bad because Hopson would probably be courted for a bigger job.

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  For this to come into play it would take horrible play out of the quarterback position with many turnovers in bad spots.   

 

I hope by reading this you get something out of it that will make you a better football fan.   Tomorrow I will post about Ole Miss then MS State on Thursday.  The Ole Miss and Mississippi State posts will probably be a longer and more detailed.  Please feel free to share this.  Thanks!

Week Two College Football

Southern Miss

Well, USM lost to Texas State.  I know so little about Texas State that I had to look up their mascot.  They are the Texas State Bobcats.  This is a bad loss when you start looking at the chance of post season play for USM.  There were some positives from this game.  USM dominated Texas State in total yards.  USM had almost double the yards, but the Golden Eagles had SIX turnovers.  No one wins with six turnovers.   USM still had the lead late in the game with six turnovers.

Bright spot from this game was that USM may have found a quarterback in Allan Bridgford.  Bridgford threw for 377 yards.  Bridgford piled up a lot of the yards on some long pass plays late in the game.  Monken finding a quarterback to run his system could be promising for USM as they head into conference play.

USM enters this week with a 13 game losing streak.  That is the longest active losing streak in FBS.  That streak won’t end in September either.  USM goes on the road to play Nebraska, Arkansas, and Boise State.  USM will probably be a 3+ touchdown underdog in all of those games.  Those losses will extend the losing streak to 16 games.  I hope they can get a few wins in conference play.

Ole Miss

I want to first say what an awesome football game!  I thought each team had this game won at least 2 different times.  The ending was spectacular, but really the entire game was great.  I was really excited about football season and this game did not let me down.  The ending to this game got me so wound up that it took me a couple of hours to go to sleep after it ended.  It was worth it though.  I'm happy to see a MS team come out on the good side of a game like that.  Teams from MS normally end up on the bad end of a game like that.  That game was what ESPN calls an Instant Classic.

Ole Miss beat a very good Vanderbilt football team without playing their best game.  The Rebels made a lot of mistakes on both sides of the ball.  The really scary part is that the offense scored 39 points in a performance that I think was a C+ or B- effort.  Bo Wallace was really rusty early, but as he started to settle down he made his presence known.  With the number of weapons they have on offense and the style of offense they are running, I don’t see anyone keeping this team from scoring less than 30 points.  This sky is the limit for the offensive unit. 

The defense made some huge plays early in the game, but as Vanderbilt started to settle down they really took advantage of this group.  I really do think this side of the ball has great potential, but at this point they just need to try to hold people down.  The offense will win the games for the defense.  The defense needs to be a bend but not break unit early in the season.   

Everyone reading this knows about the injuries suffered in this game, so I will leave the subject alone.  I never wish injuries on any players or teams.   

Ole Miss plays SE Missouri State this week.  It will be a blood bath.  Ole Miss will call off the dogs in the second half after they score in the 50s.  The Rebels have a big game next week as they travel to Austin, TX.  The game against the Longhorns may look more like a track meet than a football game.  The O/U for that game will probably be in the 70s.

Mississippi State

A thought that really ran through my head Saturday when watching MSU play was how long until baseball season starts again.  I love football and wish I could say I was joking about that comment.  Disappointing is really an understatement when talking about the offensive side of the ball for Mississippi State on Saturday.  When I think back over the last 3 games I have no clue what the identity of Mississippi State’s offense is.  Over the last three games the offensive side of the ball has done nothing that was even average.  Dan Mullen is an offensive coach, but the offense he is putting on the field right now really is not good.  They are not even average.

Dak Prescott starting at quarterback this week will mix things up a little.  I see Dak doing a good job at quarterback because the offense that Mullen runs is designed for a running quarterback.  Tyler Russell should be playing in a pro-style offense not the offense Mullen runs.  If Dak plays like I think he will Dan Mullen will have a really tough choice at quarterback for the Auburn game.

The defensive unit played a great game considering the lack of help from the offense.  No one else will hold Oklahoma State under 30 points this year.  If the Bulldogs had done anything on offense the defense probably would have won this game for them.  The defensive side of the ball did as much as they could do.  I think Geoff Collins will make this group play really good in every game year.  Their success really does depend on the offense helping them.   

MS State should steam roll Alcorn St, but I expect this game to be close early.  The Bulldogs need to win this game by 5+ touchdowns.  If they don’t win by a large margin I will be really worried about them heading to the plains next Saturday.   The two goals for Alcorn State game are to get more efficient on offense and to keep players healthy.   

Overall

You want to know how good Las Vegas is at making lines.  In week 1 the favorite covered 38 games and the underdog covered 37.  They proved that they don’t need a warm up week in week 1.  They are already on their game.

People are exploding over Bama’s performance against Va Tech.  No, they didn’t play a perfect game, but they won and covered the spread.  The special teams play did significantly contribute to the win.  That is what you get when you have superior athletes 2 or 3 deep at every position.   The offensive line looked shaky, but it was the first game.  Saban will get them tuned in for next week.  Next week we are getting an early season heavy weight championship fight.  The winner of next week’s game is the front runner for the National Championship.

The most impressive individual performance from week 1 was from Jameis Winston of Florida State.  Winston is stepping into a similar spot that Manziel did in 2012.  He is playing behind an offensive line that has a ton of experience and talent.  The options are endless at the skilled positions.  Winston has stepped into the perfect storm.