Mississippi State Preview/Prediction 2017

MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY

Dan Mullen is entering his 9th season as head coach at MSU.  That's really crazy to think about.  If you listened to the click bait websites like Saturday Down South or SEC Country he would be on at least his 5^th job by now.  Whether or not he was searching is irrelevant because he is still the coach at MSU, and he is a pretty dang good one.  Mullen is on pace to go down as the best coach in the history of the football program.  Bowl games, winning records, record setting players, Number 1, etc.  You name it and he has probably done it already at MSU.  It appears to me that he's really just hitting his stride as a head football coach.

Everyone knew last year would be a tough year because of the shadow Dak Prescott left when he graduated.  Dak will forever be a legend in Starkville, and it looks like he may end up being one in Dallas too. Dak leaving wasn't the only question mark.  The entire defensive coaching staff was new.  There were leadership questions all over the team.  Looking back on my prediction from last year I was obviously wearing my fan hat.  I have tried to step back and look at this team with a more unbiased opinion.  I've tried to find the positives and negatives.

Offense

Some media and fans have Nick Fitzgerald going to New York in December.  I'm not nearly that high on him because he has yet to show he can consistently throw the ball accurately.  He only completed 54% of his passes last year with a 2-1 TD/INT rate.  I watched him throw 5 picks in spring game in the first half.  Those are things from the past and a spring game is certainly nothing to base predictions on, but they have to be considered.  All that being said, this guy has unbelievable intangibles.  Big, fast, strong, rocket arm, vision in the running game, etc... This guy has the stuff you can't coach.  If Mullen can improve his passing accuracy and decision making then this guy could be everything some media are saying. 

Fitz is going to be helped big time by a stable of running backs.  The bulldogs are loaded with talent there starting with Aeris Williams.  Fitzgerald is also going to help himself in the passing game because teams are going to have to account for him running the ball on every play.  Fitz and Williams and possibly a 3^rd back in the backfield will be virtually impossible for any defense to defend.  The running game will be helped by an offensive line that will be much improved.  MS State should be able to run the bill at will against almost any team they play.

As deep as Ole Miss is at receiver MSU is equally not.  I'm worried about this group being able to both get open and to be able to catch the ball.  Someone has to emerge that can catch the ball other than Donald Gray.  This may come from a wide receiver or two or from the tight end position.  Mullen is saying he is going to expand the usage of the tight ends this year.  If he does that, those guys could fill a void left by the lack of wide receivers.  Everyone running routes will benefit from the run game that will be strong.

In 2016, MSU was 44^th in total offense and 56^th in scoring offense.  The only major weapon on offense gone is Fred Ross.  If Fitz can get some consistency in the passing game this group could be top 25 in offense.  It would take scoring 4-6 more points per game to get in top 25.  

Defense

Todd Grantham is a major upgrade from Peter Sirmon.  I have no idea how Mullen pulled this hire off, but he did and MS State fans should be happy.  The defense immediately got better with this hire.  The pathetic play from last year certainly wasn't all on Sirmon, but I think him and an entirely new staff were out coached many weeks.     

The defense is talented.  Simmons, Lewis, and McLaurin are players any coach would love to take the field with.  There is a really solid core at every level of the defense.  The other guys are the ones that will have to step up and play like they were recruited to play.  Guys likes Fletcher Adams, Montez Sweat, Gerri Green, Brandon Bryant, and Jamal Peters.. need to play up to their ability.  These guys along with many others have the skill, but none have played up to their ability yet.  

The defense looked like they didn't care on many possessions last year.  The effort was pathetic on many plays and drives.  That falls on coaching and leadership.  You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don’t bring it in college football you will get rolled.  The defense could be much improved if they just play with passion and effort this year.  

The defense was 110^th in total defense and 93^rd in scoring defense last year.  Just like with Ole Miss many of the same players return with new coaches especially at the top.  This side of the ball is one that really intrigues me and is the one that will decide which direction this season goes.

It is funny that over the years I have been watching football I would say MS State and Ole Miss perennially were better on defense than offense.  That has certainly changed over the last few years.  These teams have and will put up points older fans never would have imagined.

Special teams

Who knows about this category when it comes to kicking field goals.  All units of special teams will be really good except field goal kicking.  Talk out of Mullen and media is that there are several quality options to kick field goals, but we have heard that before.  It's anybody's guess how the field goal kicking will go.  I'm not optimistic at really any yardage... outside 40 I have little to no faith in the kicking going into the season.

Prediction

Vegas has the O/U at 5.5 but it is at -155 for over and +125 for the under.  Based on that this line should be at 6.5.  At 6.5 the odds would be close to -110.  I have really struggled with this win/loss prediction.  I have thought all numbers from 6 to 9 wins.  There are so many positives heading into the season, but I have a lot of question marks.  I think this team has the players to answer many questions, but I’m going to have to see it from them.

You will know all you need to know about this team by the end of September.  The schedule tosses them right into the fire with LSU at home then back to back road games to Georgia and Auburn.  There is a stretch in the middle where MS State should string together some wins.  By the time November gets here it is anybody’s guess.

Pick 7-5:  This would be include a win in the Egg Bowl and most MS State fans will be happy. 

Best Case Scenario 10-2:  It would take a special season out of Fitzgerald and a defense that is top 25 to produce this outcome.  This really is a pipe dream.

Worst Case 5-7:  Another 5-7 season would be extremely disappointing for MS State fans.  It’s hard for me to see any scenario where this happens.  If would take MS State losing multiple games at the end like they did in 2016. 

Ole Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

University of Mississippi

No one thought in early July that Ole Miss would be entering the 2017 season with Matt Luke as the head coach.  Everyone reading this knows all about the drama that’s been going on in Oxford, so I’m not going to rehash all that out.  This a 2017 season preview not another bashing of Ole Miss or Freeze. 

Just like with Hopson at USM, Matt Luke is a Mississippi guy.  In fact, I would say Ole Miss is probably his dream job.  I don’t think he ever could have envisioned his dream job starting the way it has, but here he is leading the Rebels into the 2017 season.  Luke has been at Ole Miss since 2012, but he has zero head coaching experience.  From what I can tell no one on the Ole Miss coaching staff has ever had any head coaching experience.  In a league and division where there are established, experienced head coaches the coaching situation at Ole Miss is definitely something in question heading into the season.     

Offense

Losing Hugh Freeze is a major blow to the offensive side of the ball because even with all his many flaws he was a really good offensive coach.  Freeze had said he was going to let Longo call plays, but I didn’t really believe that.  Now it is definitely all on Longo.  Longo knows offense and knows how to call plays, but at this point in his career he just isn’t on the same level as Freeze was.  One thing Longo and Luke have going for them is that they have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

On paper it may look like the Rebels lost a lot with Kelly, Engram, Stringfellow, and Adeboyejo all gone, but they return a lot of play makers starting with Patterson.  Considering the situation Patterson played extremely well to finish the season in 2016.  The offensive unit will go as Patterson goes, and the sky really is the limit for him.  It’s not just Patterson though.  The Rebels may be as deep/talented at receiver as anyone in the SEC.  The Rebels will look to lean on the passing game, but the running game should be more successful.  The offensive line returns 7 or 8 from last year including 4 upper classmen.  Wilkins also returns to the team at running back.  I see a lot of positives and very few negatives coming from the offensive side of the ball for this team.

In 2016, Ole Miss was 26^th in total offense (yards) and 42^nd in scoring offense.  Those numbers need to be better in 2017 if this teams wants to have any chance of having a winning season.  I see the numbers improving and the offense being fun to watch, but will it be enough to carry this team?

Defense

This is the side of the ball that killed Ole Miss last year.  This unit was bad, really bad.  New defensive coordinator, Wesley McGriff, has his hands full because I see a unit that is limited heading into 2017.  Defense has some talented players up front in Haynes, Speaks, and Jones, but they are severely limited when it comes to depth at every level of the defense.  The front line guys are good enough, but in the SEC West you have to have depth, especially up front.

The weakest grouping on defense is far and away the linebackers.  I thought Ole Miss had the worst group of linebackers in the SEC last year.  Many guys are coming back, but I’m not very optimistic about them.  There is skill and depth at defensive back, but they are unproven.  More question marks…

In 2016, the defense was ranked 111^th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense.  Those numbers are a long way from the “Land Shark Defenses” from a few years ago.  This unit needs some guys to really step up, and they need the entire defense to remain somewhat healthy throughout the course of the year.  As good as I feel about Ole Miss on offense I feel equally bad about them on defense.

    

Special Teams

This is something I feel like Ole Miss can be confident in heading into the season.   Wunderlich was almost automatic last year.  He can handle all kicking duties if necessary, but Ole Miss has Gleason too.  Special teams could swing a game for the Rebels.

Prediction

Vegas has Ole Miss at over/under 5.5 wins.  It’s showing Over -135 and Under +105 which means they are leaning toward the over and this line could be 6.  I could see Ole Miss coming out of the gate hot with a 3-0 start.  Momentum will build in their bye week, but that will quickly be erased with six straight SEC games starting with trips to Bama and Auburn.  Those two road games, back to back, are brutal. How the Rebels play after those games is unknown, but I see the lack of defensive depth to start to take its toll in the middle of the season. 

The Rebels and the Saints will be similar to watch middle/late in the season with both scoring a lot of points, but not being able to stop anyone.  If you watch one on Saturday and the other on Sunday it may at times feel like you are watching the same game.  At times the games may look more like a track meet than a football game.

Most of the offseason I was leaning toward 5 wins, but I have settled on 6 wins.  You would think that number would have been lower with Hugh Freeze being gone, but I think the offensive side of the ball is talented enough to steal a game or two for Ole Miss this season in a shootout.  I could see Ole Miss play in a game this year where the total points is close to 100.

Pick 6-6:  This obviously doesn’t get the Rebels to a bowl game with the bowl ban, but with 6 wins Matt Luke may earn the full time head coaching job going forward.  

Best Case Scenario 8-4:  If this team can sustain the us vs the world mentality, gets many breaks, and stays healthy this best case scenario would come into play.  A lot of things would have to align for this to happen.

Worst Case Scenario 3-9:  It would take absolute disaster starting with a loss at Cal for this to happen.  A loss at Cal could really derail this team.  With everything going on off the field disaster is certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t see this happening.

Southern Miss 2017 Preview/Prediction

 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Prior to writing this I knew very little about USM head coach Jay Hopson.  I have heard his name mentioned countless times over the last few years in a positive light, but knew nothing beyond that.  I decided to go do a little research.  Hopson is a Mississippian..  Born in Mississippi, played defensive back at Ole Miss, has coached most of his career in the state of Mississippi, etc.  Hopson came to USM from Alcorn State.  Prior to him being hired at Alcorn State they were not very good, and that's probably being nice.  He completely turned their football program around and led them to back to back SWAC championships and a Black College National Championship.  If you win championships at any level of college sports you are a good coach.

USM returns 6 starters on offense.  Returning starters are almost all skilled position players including two of the best players in C-USA, Ito Smith (RB) and Allenzae Staggers (WR).   USM better be glad they have 2 quality, experienced players at those positions because quarterback and offensive line are major question marks.  The QB position might be a revolving door with Keon Howard, Kwadra Griggs, and true freshman Marcelo Rodriguez all battling for snaps.  As I am posting this USM has not settled on a starting quarterback.  It appears Howard and Griggs are the front runners, but Rodriquez has gained some attention.    Offensive line returns just 2 starters.  I believe USM will rely heavily on Smith because he is obviously very talented, and it’s just easier for an unproven offensive line to run block compared to pass blocking.  

The USM defense from last year is something I am having a very hard time wrapping my head around.  They were 15^th in the nation in total defense (yards allowed), but they were 74^th in scoring defense.  Those numbers do not make sense.  I didn’t watch enough USM games to know what happened, but it appears they either gave up a lot of special teams touchdowns or the offense turned the ball over in bad spots.  USM doesn’t return a lot of starters(4-5), but all projected starters are upper classmen.  That means there is obviously some experience there.  This is a very good thing heading into the season.  Hopson knows defense.  This unit has potential to be good.  If USM can get their scoring defense in 2017 in line with their total defense from 2016 then this side of the ball could carry the team.  

Special teams appear to be something the Golden Eagles are pretty comfortable with heading into this year.  Parker Shaunfield was very consistent as a sophomore making 12 of 14 field goals.  There is talk that Shaunfield may be taking on all kicking responsibilities.  Special teams look like they are going to be something USM has an advantage at in most games.

Turnover margin is one of the most important things in football.  Over the course of a year teams with a positive number normally have a positive record and vice versa.  In 2016, USM was 125^th out of 128 teams in this category.  USM was -17 on the year.  The defense has some blame for this, but most of the blame lies on the offense.  They turned the ball over WAY too much.  They turned the ball over 32 times in 13 games.  That is horrible.  Protecting the ball is something the USM coaching staff had to be pounding away at in camp.  The starting quaterback position could end up going to the guy that protects the ball the best.  

Vegas books have given USM an O/U of 7 wins.  There are a lot of people out there predicting USM to beat Kentucky in the season opener.  I don’t see that happening because 1. USM beat them last year 2.  USM has a lot of question marks heading into the first game starting with QB 3.  Kentucky has more talent.  USM beating Kentucky would surprise me.  I was leaning toward 8 wins for the season, but I am going with 7-5.  Going with Vegas is a safe pick, but that’s how I see it.

Pick 7-5: This gets USM in back to back bowl games and probably keeps Hopson in Hattiesburg for another year.  USM would really benefit from a little longevity at head coach.

Best Case Scenario 9-3: This best case would start with a win in the opener against Kentucky.  This would set USM up for a conference championship and a pretty good bowl game, but with the good may come the bad because Hopson would probably be courted for a bigger job.

Worst Case Scenario 5-7:  For this to come into play it would take horrible play out of the quarterback position with many turnovers in bad spots.   

 

I hope by reading this you get something out of it that will make you a better football fan.   Tomorrow I will post about Ole Miss then MS State on Thursday.  The Ole Miss and Mississippi State posts will probably be a longer and more detailed.  Please feel free to share this.  Thanks!

Week Two College Football

Southern Miss

Well, USM lost to Texas State.  I know so little about Texas State that I had to look up their mascot.  They are the Texas State Bobcats.  This is a bad loss when you start looking at the chance of post season play for USM.  There were some positives from this game.  USM dominated Texas State in total yards.  USM had almost double the yards, but the Golden Eagles had SIX turnovers.  No one wins with six turnovers.   USM still had the lead late in the game with six turnovers.

Bright spot from this game was that USM may have found a quarterback in Allan Bridgford.  Bridgford threw for 377 yards.  Bridgford piled up a lot of the yards on some long pass plays late in the game.  Monken finding a quarterback to run his system could be promising for USM as they head into conference play.

USM enters this week with a 13 game losing streak.  That is the longest active losing streak in FBS.  That streak won’t end in September either.  USM goes on the road to play Nebraska, Arkansas, and Boise State.  USM will probably be a 3+ touchdown underdog in all of those games.  Those losses will extend the losing streak to 16 games.  I hope they can get a few wins in conference play.

Ole Miss

I want to first say what an awesome football game!  I thought each team had this game won at least 2 different times.  The ending was spectacular, but really the entire game was great.  I was really excited about football season and this game did not let me down.  The ending to this game got me so wound up that it took me a couple of hours to go to sleep after it ended.  It was worth it though.  I'm happy to see a MS team come out on the good side of a game like that.  Teams from MS normally end up on the bad end of a game like that.  That game was what ESPN calls an Instant Classic.

Ole Miss beat a very good Vanderbilt football team without playing their best game.  The Rebels made a lot of mistakes on both sides of the ball.  The really scary part is that the offense scored 39 points in a performance that I think was a C+ or B- effort.  Bo Wallace was really rusty early, but as he started to settle down he made his presence known.  With the number of weapons they have on offense and the style of offense they are running, I don’t see anyone keeping this team from scoring less than 30 points.  This sky is the limit for the offensive unit. 

The defense made some huge plays early in the game, but as Vanderbilt started to settle down they really took advantage of this group.  I really do think this side of the ball has great potential, but at this point they just need to try to hold people down.  The offense will win the games for the defense.  The defense needs to be a bend but not break unit early in the season.   

Everyone reading this knows about the injuries suffered in this game, so I will leave the subject alone.  I never wish injuries on any players or teams.   

Ole Miss plays SE Missouri State this week.  It will be a blood bath.  Ole Miss will call off the dogs in the second half after they score in the 50s.  The Rebels have a big game next week as they travel to Austin, TX.  The game against the Longhorns may look more like a track meet than a football game.  The O/U for that game will probably be in the 70s.

Mississippi State

A thought that really ran through my head Saturday when watching MSU play was how long until baseball season starts again.  I love football and wish I could say I was joking about that comment.  Disappointing is really an understatement when talking about the offensive side of the ball for Mississippi State on Saturday.  When I think back over the last 3 games I have no clue what the identity of Mississippi State’s offense is.  Over the last three games the offensive side of the ball has done nothing that was even average.  Dan Mullen is an offensive coach, but the offense he is putting on the field right now really is not good.  They are not even average.

Dak Prescott starting at quarterback this week will mix things up a little.  I see Dak doing a good job at quarterback because the offense that Mullen runs is designed for a running quarterback.  Tyler Russell should be playing in a pro-style offense not the offense Mullen runs.  If Dak plays like I think he will Dan Mullen will have a really tough choice at quarterback for the Auburn game.

The defensive unit played a great game considering the lack of help from the offense.  No one else will hold Oklahoma State under 30 points this year.  If the Bulldogs had done anything on offense the defense probably would have won this game for them.  The defensive side of the ball did as much as they could do.  I think Geoff Collins will make this group play really good in every game year.  Their success really does depend on the offense helping them.   

MS State should steam roll Alcorn St, but I expect this game to be close early.  The Bulldogs need to win this game by 5+ touchdowns.  If they don’t win by a large margin I will be really worried about them heading to the plains next Saturday.   The two goals for Alcorn State game are to get more efficient on offense and to keep players healthy.   

Overall

You want to know how good Las Vegas is at making lines.  In week 1 the favorite covered 38 games and the underdog covered 37.  They proved that they don’t need a warm up week in week 1.  They are already on their game.

People are exploding over Bama’s performance against Va Tech.  No, they didn’t play a perfect game, but they won and covered the spread.  The special teams play did significantly contribute to the win.  That is what you get when you have superior athletes 2 or 3 deep at every position.   The offensive line looked shaky, but it was the first game.  Saban will get them tuned in for next week.  Next week we are getting an early season heavy weight championship fight.  The winner of next week’s game is the front runner for the National Championship.

The most impressive individual performance from week 1 was from Jameis Winston of Florida State.  Winston is stepping into a similar spot that Manziel did in 2012.  He is playing behind an offensive line that has a ton of experience and talent.  The options are endless at the skilled positions.  Winston has stepped into the perfect storm.   

Week One Preview College Football Preview

I am going to keep this short because I spent a ton of time on the season preview.  Starting next week these will be longer.

Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles are taking on Texas State on Saturday.  Kick for this game is 6:00.  Vegas opened this line at -9 1/2.  Line currently sits at between 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 depending on which book you look at.  This will be Texas State's second year as an FBS school.  There will be some bad plays by USM, but in the end the Golden Eagles have more talent than Texas State.

Southern Miss 31 Texas State 27

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs take on Oklahoma State in Houston on Saturday afternoon.  The kick for this game is 2:30.  I am hesitantly optimistic for this game because I think this is a bad matchup for the Bulldogs.  Vegas has this game sitting at a 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 point spread.  The bulldogs defense has their work cut out for them stopping the high paced, high powered offense that Oklahoma State will be bringing to Houston. 

If the offense does not score in the 30's you can automatically mark down a loss.  The defense have a lot of good plays and series, but the Cowboys offense will score.  Keys to this game: 1. Score touchdowns not field goals. 2. Create negative plays for the Cowboys on offense. 3.  Get off the field on third down. 

I don't see the Bulldogs winning because in the end Ok State will just be too much

Oklahoma State 34-Ms State 27 (Field goal attempts instead of touchdowns will cause the Bulldogs to lose)

Ole Miss

Last but not least Ole Miss travels to Nashville to play Vandy TONIGHT.  Kick for this game is after 8 PM.  Football is back, and I am as excited as anyone about it.  Vegas originally opened this line with Vandy as a 1 1/2 point favor.  The line currently has Ole Miss at either a 3 or 3 1/2 point favorite.  

If you know anything about the Vandy/Ole Miss series you know the games are almost always a nail bitter.  One thing I anticipate to see tonight out of the Rebels is a shaky start, especially on offense because Bo Wallace has not practiced as much as most players.  They say he is ready to go, but I anticipate seeing signs of a little rusty early. 

Vandy is a really solid football team with a really good coaching staff.  The Commodores will be ready tonight.  They played this same game last year against South Carolina and BARELY lost.  This is going to be a nail bitter, but I feel like the Rebels pull it off late, maybe even with a game winning drive at the end.  The under has been bet hard, and I have to agree with it.  I think points are going to be hard to come by early in this game. Down 21 -17 in the 4th... Wallace throws a late touchdown pass to Moncrief.  I know that ending sounds good to Rebel fans.

Ole Miss 24  Vandy 21  

I hope all teams have a great season!

My bet of the week is LA Lafayette +11 against Arkansas.  I like what the Ragin Cajuns have going with Mark Hudspeth leading them.

  

University of Mississippi 2013 Football Preview

University of Mississippi

Ole Miss Rebels

 

 

First thing I want to hit on, and I want to hit on it hard.  Hugh Freeze should have been NCAA coach of the year in 2012.  There are countless different coach of the year awards.  Hugh Freeze did not receive a single one of them.  Freeze was mentioned in some circles, but he did not receive one award.  In my opinion you should not have to win 10 games to be coach of the year.  Just because Alabama goes undefeated does not mean Saban should be given coach of the year.  I could win 10 games at Bama with the talent they have on their roster.  Coach of the year should not be based on most wins.  It should be what coach improves his team the most.  There is no arguing what Freeze did in 2012. 

I really thought there was no way Ole Miss would ever get to 6 wins in 2012.  I thought that because I had no idea Bo Wallace would play like he did.  As the season went on Wallace turned out to be one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC.  He improved just the same as Tyler Russell fluttered for MSU.  The Rebels having 6 wins and a bowl victory in 2012 was incredible considering the number of question marks they had prior to the season.

My other two preview posts only had 2 paragraphs in this section, but I think Ole Miss needs 3 to touch on their recruiting class.  I am not trying to rain on their parade, but having a top 10 class does not guarantee you 10 wins the following year.  At most 3 or 4 of those players will have an impact on the 2013 season.  The key to making a top 10 class get you to 10 wins is 1) to get those guys in school 2)convince them they are not all world and that they must work 3)keep them on your team.   The real measure of a recruiting class is what they do their sophomore and junior year in college.  Some 5*’s drop off and some 2 and 3 *’s emerge as great players.  Almost half the players selected in the first round of the NFL draft this year were rated 3* or less out of high school.  Ole Miss fans know Patrick Willis very well.  He is one of the best linebackers in NFL.  Willis  was a 2* prospect out of high school.  Ole Miss achieved step one in getting elite players, but the rest of the process is just as hard. 

OFFENSE



I hit on this earlier by talking about Bo Wallace.  It is easy to say the quarterback is the most important player, but he really is the most important person on this team’s roster.  With him Ole Miss has a chance against every team they play.  Without him they win less than 6 games.  Ole Miss has Brunetti behind Wallace, but honestly the only people he scares are the Ole Miss faithful.  Keeping Wallace healthy should be the number one priority for Ole Miss. Bo Wallace possesses the “IT” factor that Tyler Russell has yet to show.     

First step to keeping the quarterback healthy is to have an offensive line that can protect him, and a running game that can take some pressure off of him.   It looks like the offensive line has the potential to be a strong point.  This group returns players with depth and talent.  Just like with MSU this group has 8 or 9 players that should see the field in 2013.  Good depth is needed in the SEC and that is good depth. 

Jeff Scott is back at running back, but this unit as whole really lacks experienced depth.   Scott is the perfect running back for the system Ole Miss runs.  This group needs to get some type of production from a second back.  It sounds crazy because Jeff Scott is a good running back, but overall this unit is the weakest unit on offense.  That is a good sign for the offense.

The group of wide receivers has major talent.  They are led by Donte Moncrief.  I have said from day one that I thought he would play on Sundays.  Moncrief is going to produce.  Sanders will miss the first part of the season with an injury.   Ole Miss must get some production out of all other wide receivers because Moncrief will have 2 guys on him at all times.  He will still produce even when double covered because he is that good, but his numbers will not reflect how good he really is.  Laquon Treadwell is slated to start for the Rebels.  He could be the X-Factor for this offense, especially when he gets on the field with Moncrief and Sanders at the same time. 

You have to really look for weaknesses in the offense heading into 2013.  Having to dig to find possible question marks is a good sign for a team.  This group will be able to score against every team they play.  If you look at the Wallace/Scott/Moncrief combination you will be hard pressed to find a better trio of QB/RB/WR in the country.  The offense ranked 52^nd last year scoring 30 points a game.  I expect this point total to get up around 35 a game this year.  That would put them as a Top 25 offense.  A top 25 offense in the SEC is a REALLY good offense.  

DEFENSE

The defensive unit for Ole Miss in 2012 was a solid group, but they have the most room for improvement going into 2013.  If you compared offense to defense its obvious that the defense has the most room for improvement.  This side of the ball returns 7 starters.  They also have some very talented young players that saw the field in crucial situations last year. 

The number one thing the defensive side of the ball is looking for in 2013 is the depth to allow them to finish.  This team barley missed victories against both A&M and LSU.   The reason they lost those games was simple.  They did not have the depth.  The players were exhausted late in games. 

The front four is probably the most exciting group of players on the Ole Miss roster, even more upside than the group of wide receivers.  This group could be scary good, especially with the addition of younger/bigger brother Nkemdiche.  MSU and Ole Miss have both done excellent jobs building a team on the defensive front.  The defensive line doesn’t get the glory that other positions get but in order to get 9 or 10 wins in the SEC you have to be dominating up front.  This group on defense really has no ceiling heading into 2013.  If everything comes together for the defensive line they could be the best defensive front in the SEC.  That is a strong comment considering you have Bama, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Etc.

The secondary is the biggest question mark of the whole team heading into 2013.  Just like with MSU a dominating defensive line will help this group.  Offenses torched the secondary last year, especially Georgia and Texas.  Almost every team threw for more than 200 yards against Ole Miss in 2012.  This team returns players that saw the field in 2012, but none of them really excelled.  If Ole Miss wants to get to the 10+ win area this will be the group that does it for them.

The defense will be much improved in 2013.  This side of the ball will have the depth to allow it to finish games.  They will have playmakers at every level that will make the big plays.  Ole Miss was ranked 55^th in scoring defense last year.  If all the stars align this group has the potential to be a top 10 defense.  If that happens then there is no telling where the Rebels end up this year.

SEASON PREDICTION

The expectations are high for Ole Miss this year within their athletic department and fan base.  The first thing you do to make a prediction for a team’s season is go through the schedule and give “automatic wins”.  I say “automatic” because nothing is that, but Ole Miss should be 10+ point favorites against these “automatic wins.”  The automatic wins on the schedule are SEMO, Idaho, and Troy.  Honestly Auburn and Missouri should be no real trouble for Ole Miss, so they are in this category.  With 5 wins checked you have to think Ole Miss fans feel confident they will go at least 2 and 1 against Vandy, Arkansas, and MSU. 

We now have Ole Miss with at least 7 wins.  I can’t sit here and predict which one of the next four teams Ole Miss will beat, but I think it happens.  The teams are Texas, Bama, A&M, and LSU.  Ole Miss always plays LSU tough, so you know that game is going to be a coin flip.  Texas, Bama, and A&M look like tough games, but Ole Miss is not a guarantee win for any of those 3 teams.

One of the biggest games of the year for Ole Miss is this Thursday against Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has been a thorn in the side of Rebel fans for an extended period of time now.  The brutal truth is that Vanderbilt is a rival of Ole Miss.  A win Thursday could propel this team to the best case scenario situation.

The schedule for the Rebels is really the opposite of MSU.  Early season struggles are not the end of the world.  The back end of the schedule is really easy for Ole Miss.  Keep your heads up if the Rebels struggle early because if the Rebels end September 2-2 the best case scenario really could come into play.

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 5-7 (It would take something devastating for the Rebels to not go bowling in 2013)

My Predition: 9-3 ( I have a hard time picking Ole Miss to get to the 10 win point because games against Texas, Bama, A&M, and LSU are just games I can’t realistically pick Ole Miss in.  I think the Rebels will win all the games they are supposed to this year and have one upset.  9-3 and another trip to the Cotton Bowl is a damn good second season for Hugh Freeze. 

INTERESTING FACTS

Ole Miss has claimed national titles in 1959, 1960, and 1962.  This was prior to the current system.  Several teams claimed titles in those 3 years.  Either way if you can claim a title you must have been really good.

 First season of football for Ole Miss was in 1890.  The Rebels have gone 628-492-35.  That is a 56% winning percentage.

 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium was built in 1915.  Current capacity is 60,580.  Largest crowd ever was 62,663 against Alabama on October 10, 2009.  Stadium is named after legendary coach Johnny Vaught and Judge William Hemingway. 

Ole Miss has won 6 conference titles.  The most recent title was in 1963.

Ole Miss has had 11 consensus All-Americans. 

In 1904 Ole Miss defeated Union College 114-0.

Thank you to everyone for reading the blog.  Football season is here.  I wish every team the best of luck.      

 

 

 

 

 

 



Mississippi State Universty 2013 Football Preview

Mississippi State University Bulldogs





The uncertainty level is at an all-time high for me with Mississippi State heading into 2013.  Most years I know MSU is either going to suck, or they are going to be pretty good.  The Bulldogs second half against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and their performance against Northwestern in the Gator Bowl made me sick.  Those six quarters of football were as bad as any six quarters under Dan Mullen, especially the effort Tyler Russell gave.  Honestly, the entire second half of the season was pretty bad.   The record backs that statement up.

 

The Bulldogs did lose some key players, but they lost key players at skilled positions.  I have always felt that you can fill skill position roles much easier than you can the guys up front.  I think Chad Bumphis was probably as big of a loss as any one single player.  In his 4 years at MSU he was a solid football player for Dan Mullen.   

 

OFFENSE

Almost every media outlet lists Tyler Russell as a key returning player.  The only thing he was key to at the end of the year was the key to losing games.  At times on the sideline he looked like he had no idea where he was at.  In the Gator Bowl he looked like he walked from the bar to the locker room for the game.  The effort the Bulldogs displayed in that game was bad.  Russell’s effort stood out above all others as the worst.  Watching him in that game gave me flashbacks of Mike Henig against LSU.  Henig made Craig Steltz look like a hall of famer, much like Russell made the Northwestern defense look like Alabama.

At times the guy has flashes of absolute brilliance moving the team up and down the field with pin point execution.   Tyler Russell has many positive attributes.  The first is his experience in the line of fire.  He has played a ton of SEC football.  He basically is a second coach on the field at this point.  He has the arm strength to make any throw.  Russell is not a running quarterback, but he is pretty agile at times.  With all that being said he has never once shown me that he has the “IT” factor.  The “IT’ factor means everything for a quarterback and until he shows me he has it he will be the Achilles heel to the offense. 

Skill position is something I really don’t worry about much.  The Bulldogs have a stable of running backs, and they have guys that can catch the ball.  There were some key losses at receiver but as I said earlier I think the skill position guys are the easiest to replace.   I think Malcolm Johnson is the key guy in the category of offensive skill players.  He is a matchup nightmare.  If he stays healthy he is a guy Russell will look for often.

The offensive line returning could be the best offensive line under Mullen.  This group has depth and experience.  A couple of injuries early would deplete the depth fast, but if this unit stays healthy it will be a strong point for this team.  The line is obviously anchored by pre-season all SEC/American selection Gabe Jackson.  He is one of the best offensive linemen in the country.  The guys around him all have experience and talent.  If the line was not so strong I would go ahead and throw MSU to the wolves, but I think this group has the ability to really carry this team in 2013. 

At this point I see no reason why the offense won’t be successful simply because they should have the ability to run the ball against every team they play.  Returning experience up front is critical for the success of an offense and this team has that.  Tyler Russell needs to start off against Oklahoma State good and gain back some confidence.  If Russell gains confidence the Bulldogs will have the opportunity to be a special unit on offense.  This group will be productive against inferior opponents, but I really can’t make a prediction for the offense  against good teams because Tyler Russell is harder to figure out than a game of Pai Gow Poker at the casino. 

 

DEFENSE

This may sound crazy to some with the loss of Banks and Slay, but this side of the ball really excites me.  A good defensive front will make any group of defensive backs look good.  An example I always go back to is the NY Giants.  Their defensive front dominated in their two Super Bowl wins making their linebackers and defensive backs look like All-Pro type guys.  There is experience, depth, talent, youth, etc. returning up front.  Mark it down.. there’s several guys on the Bulldogs front that will play on Sundays.  If the defensive front gets the production it should out of some young guys this unit could be a top 3 defensive line in the SEC.

The linebacker group returns depth.  It has playmakers across the board at linebacker, especially Bernardrick McKinney.    McKinney will become a household name in the SEC over the next 2 years.  This unit does lose leading tackler from last 2 years in Cam Lawrence.  Cam Lawrence was a really good football player, but the guys sitting there waiting to replace him have more upside.  The biggest loss with Cam Lawrence will be in the communication category.  He was the quarterback of the defensive unit the last 2 years.  I look to McKinney to take over this role. 

The back group is obviously a question mark.  Losing 2 guys that will start in the NFL is never a positive.  You don’t just replace guys like Banks and Slay with one guy.  You replace them with a core that becomes stronger.  MSU must get more pressure out of the front four.  Pressure out of the front four will put the secondary in positive situations.

If I was asked what are the 3 biggest keys for the defensive unit in 2013.  I would say pressure, pressure, pressure.  Geoff Collins is now solely in charge of the defensive unit.  At times it looked to me like Chris Wilson was in over his head as defensive coordinator.  Geoff Collins preaches playmaking and being aggressive.  Everywhere Geoff Collins has been the coordinator the defenses have been really good.  The defenses he lead at both Western Carolina and FIU significantly improved in every category under him.   The bulldogs have experience and depth on the defensive line.  As I said earlier this group could be a top 3 defensive line.  This group needs to dominate.  Their dominating play could lead the defense to a top 20 rating in every major statistical category.

SEASON PREDICTION

The Bulldogs have been to 3 straight bowl games.  Expectations have been raised for this team.  At this point I can realistically say most fans would not be happy with a losing record.  A season that ends without post season play is in one word BAD.  The schedule for MSU is not easy, but is there any team in the SEC with an easy schedule?  The answer to that question is no.  Every team will play at least 3 or 4 top 10 teams during the season.  Crying about a tough schedule in the SEC is like crying about the heat in Mississippi during the summer. 

Money talks, so the Bulldogs are going to Houston to open the season against Oklahoma State.  There is no way that MSU or Dan Mullen would agree to this game if major money was not involved.  The matchup against Oklahoma State is a tough one.  Some media outlets have predicted OSU to win the Big 12 this year.  The fast paced offense OSU operates is similar to the offenses MSU really struggled against last year.  If MSU is not ready to play against the fast pace of OSU then I will have to blame the coaching staff.  This was obviously a weakness for the team last year.  Every practice should be used to practice against the up tempo because most of the teams MSU plays this year will be moving quickly. 

You hear me relate back to Vegas a lot because they are experts at creating lines.  The line on this game opened at -13, but currently sits at -12 ½.  I would never realistically predict a 10+ point dog to win a game.  They play the game for a reason because upsets happen.  MSU has the players to beat OSU, but I don’t see it happening.  Losing the opener would not be devastating, but winning it would change the entire outlook going forward.  The Bulldogs better get wins early because the back end of the schedule is tough.

MSU has too much talent on their football team at critical positions to implode this year.  This is a really good football team.  The problem is that they are in a conference with great teams.  I said this earlier, but I want to reiterate it.. the Bulldogs better get wins early because the back end of the schedule is tough.  Right off the top I can check 4 losses off (LSU, USC, A&M, Bama).  Ceiling for the Bulldogs is really 8 wins, but a dream season would have them with an upset. 

Best Case Scenario 9-4 (Not realistic)

Worst Case Scenario 4-8 (This would be a momentum killer for the program) 

My Prediction 6-6 (Bulldogs will have equal or superior talent to at least 7 teams on their schedule)

INTERESTING FACTS

Even though MSU was, so close in baseball this year the University has never won a national championship in any sport, EVER.

First year of football was in 1885.  All-time MSU has a losing record (515-549-39)

Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field is the 2^nd oldest on campus stadium behind Georgia Tech’s Bobby Dodd Stadium.  The stadium currently holds 55,082.  Record attendance was set on 11/14/2009 with a crowd of 58,103 against Alabama.  Stadium is currently undergoing a 75 million dollar expansion.  The stadium will look awesome after the expansion/renovation. 

MS State has had 3 consensus All-Americans (38 named All-American by various media outlets)

MS State has won just 1 conference title.  It was in 1941

I didn't mention this in the above blog because I am still holding out faith that Tyler Russell will actually come to play this year.  If you thought about everything I said with Russell you know there is obvious doubt in my mind about him.  I have heard from countless people that Dak Prescott is one of the most respected players on the roster.  He is chomping at the bits to get an opportunity.  If Russell does not perform I feel like Dan Mullen may have to pull a page out of the Old Ball Coach's playbook and yank him.  Steve Spurrier has tried to pull quarterbacks mid play before.  If Russell plays bad on a drive or in a quarter I think Mullen has to pull him.  Maybe not for the season, but at least long enough to wake him up.  I think MSU would have won the Gator Bowl if Prescott had been put in, but they would have lost Russell's confidence forever. 

Thank you to all for reading.  Ole Miss will be next, and the number of readers on the Ole Miss blog almost doubles MSU and USM together.  I hope to make it my best one yet!