Week One Preview College Football Preview

I am going to keep this short because I spent a ton of time on the season preview.  Starting next week these will be longer.

Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles are taking on Texas State on Saturday.  Kick for this game is 6:00.  Vegas opened this line at -9 1/2.  Line currently sits at between 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 depending on which book you look at.  This will be Texas State's second year as an FBS school.  There will be some bad plays by USM, but in the end the Golden Eagles have more talent than Texas State.

Southern Miss 31 Texas State 27

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs take on Oklahoma State in Houston on Saturday afternoon.  The kick for this game is 2:30.  I am hesitantly optimistic for this game because I think this is a bad matchup for the Bulldogs.  Vegas has this game sitting at a 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 point spread.  The bulldogs defense has their work cut out for them stopping the high paced, high powered offense that Oklahoma State will be bringing to Houston. 

If the offense does not score in the 30's you can automatically mark down a loss.  The defense have a lot of good plays and series, but the Cowboys offense will score.  Keys to this game: 1. Score touchdowns not field goals. 2. Create negative plays for the Cowboys on offense. 3.  Get off the field on third down. 

I don't see the Bulldogs winning because in the end Ok State will just be too much

Oklahoma State 34-Ms State 27 (Field goal attempts instead of touchdowns will cause the Bulldogs to lose)

Ole Miss

Last but not least Ole Miss travels to Nashville to play Vandy TONIGHT.  Kick for this game is after 8 PM.  Football is back, and I am as excited as anyone about it.  Vegas originally opened this line with Vandy as a 1 1/2 point favor.  The line currently has Ole Miss at either a 3 or 3 1/2 point favorite.  

If you know anything about the Vandy/Ole Miss series you know the games are almost always a nail bitter.  One thing I anticipate to see tonight out of the Rebels is a shaky start, especially on offense because Bo Wallace has not practiced as much as most players.  They say he is ready to go, but I anticipate seeing signs of a little rusty early. 

Vandy is a really solid football team with a really good coaching staff.  The Commodores will be ready tonight.  They played this same game last year against South Carolina and BARELY lost.  This is going to be a nail bitter, but I feel like the Rebels pull it off late, maybe even with a game winning drive at the end.  The under has been bet hard, and I have to agree with it.  I think points are going to be hard to come by early in this game. Down 21 -17 in the 4th... Wallace throws a late touchdown pass to Moncrief.  I know that ending sounds good to Rebel fans.

Ole Miss 24  Vandy 21  

I hope all teams have a great season!

My bet of the week is LA Lafayette +11 against Arkansas.  I like what the Ragin Cajuns have going with Mark Hudspeth leading them.

  

University of Mississippi 2013 Football Preview

University of Mississippi

Ole Miss Rebels

 

 

First thing I want to hit on, and I want to hit on it hard.  Hugh Freeze should have been NCAA coach of the year in 2012.  There are countless different coach of the year awards.  Hugh Freeze did not receive a single one of them.  Freeze was mentioned in some circles, but he did not receive one award.  In my opinion you should not have to win 10 games to be coach of the year.  Just because Alabama goes undefeated does not mean Saban should be given coach of the year.  I could win 10 games at Bama with the talent they have on their roster.  Coach of the year should not be based on most wins.  It should be what coach improves his team the most.  There is no arguing what Freeze did in 2012. 

I really thought there was no way Ole Miss would ever get to 6 wins in 2012.  I thought that because I had no idea Bo Wallace would play like he did.  As the season went on Wallace turned out to be one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC.  He improved just the same as Tyler Russell fluttered for MSU.  The Rebels having 6 wins and a bowl victory in 2012 was incredible considering the number of question marks they had prior to the season.

My other two preview posts only had 2 paragraphs in this section, but I think Ole Miss needs 3 to touch on their recruiting class.  I am not trying to rain on their parade, but having a top 10 class does not guarantee you 10 wins the following year.  At most 3 or 4 of those players will have an impact on the 2013 season.  The key to making a top 10 class get you to 10 wins is 1) to get those guys in school 2)convince them they are not all world and that they must work 3)keep them on your team.   The real measure of a recruiting class is what they do their sophomore and junior year in college.  Some 5*’s drop off and some 2 and 3 *’s emerge as great players.  Almost half the players selected in the first round of the NFL draft this year were rated 3* or less out of high school.  Ole Miss fans know Patrick Willis very well.  He is one of the best linebackers in NFL.  Willis  was a 2* prospect out of high school.  Ole Miss achieved step one in getting elite players, but the rest of the process is just as hard. 

OFFENSE



I hit on this earlier by talking about Bo Wallace.  It is easy to say the quarterback is the most important player, but he really is the most important person on this team’s roster.  With him Ole Miss has a chance against every team they play.  Without him they win less than 6 games.  Ole Miss has Brunetti behind Wallace, but honestly the only people he scares are the Ole Miss faithful.  Keeping Wallace healthy should be the number one priority for Ole Miss. Bo Wallace possesses the “IT” factor that Tyler Russell has yet to show.     

First step to keeping the quarterback healthy is to have an offensive line that can protect him, and a running game that can take some pressure off of him.   It looks like the offensive line has the potential to be a strong point.  This group returns players with depth and talent.  Just like with MSU this group has 8 or 9 players that should see the field in 2013.  Good depth is needed in the SEC and that is good depth. 

Jeff Scott is back at running back, but this unit as whole really lacks experienced depth.   Scott is the perfect running back for the system Ole Miss runs.  This group needs to get some type of production from a second back.  It sounds crazy because Jeff Scott is a good running back, but overall this unit is the weakest unit on offense.  That is a good sign for the offense.

The group of wide receivers has major talent.  They are led by Donte Moncrief.  I have said from day one that I thought he would play on Sundays.  Moncrief is going to produce.  Sanders will miss the first part of the season with an injury.   Ole Miss must get some production out of all other wide receivers because Moncrief will have 2 guys on him at all times.  He will still produce even when double covered because he is that good, but his numbers will not reflect how good he really is.  Laquon Treadwell is slated to start for the Rebels.  He could be the X-Factor for this offense, especially when he gets on the field with Moncrief and Sanders at the same time. 

You have to really look for weaknesses in the offense heading into 2013.  Having to dig to find possible question marks is a good sign for a team.  This group will be able to score against every team they play.  If you look at the Wallace/Scott/Moncrief combination you will be hard pressed to find a better trio of QB/RB/WR in the country.  The offense ranked 52^nd last year scoring 30 points a game.  I expect this point total to get up around 35 a game this year.  That would put them as a Top 25 offense.  A top 25 offense in the SEC is a REALLY good offense.  

DEFENSE

The defensive unit for Ole Miss in 2012 was a solid group, but they have the most room for improvement going into 2013.  If you compared offense to defense its obvious that the defense has the most room for improvement.  This side of the ball returns 7 starters.  They also have some very talented young players that saw the field in crucial situations last year. 

The number one thing the defensive side of the ball is looking for in 2013 is the depth to allow them to finish.  This team barley missed victories against both A&M and LSU.   The reason they lost those games was simple.  They did not have the depth.  The players were exhausted late in games. 

The front four is probably the most exciting group of players on the Ole Miss roster, even more upside than the group of wide receivers.  This group could be scary good, especially with the addition of younger/bigger brother Nkemdiche.  MSU and Ole Miss have both done excellent jobs building a team on the defensive front.  The defensive line doesn’t get the glory that other positions get but in order to get 9 or 10 wins in the SEC you have to be dominating up front.  This group on defense really has no ceiling heading into 2013.  If everything comes together for the defensive line they could be the best defensive front in the SEC.  That is a strong comment considering you have Bama, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Etc.

The secondary is the biggest question mark of the whole team heading into 2013.  Just like with MSU a dominating defensive line will help this group.  Offenses torched the secondary last year, especially Georgia and Texas.  Almost every team threw for more than 200 yards against Ole Miss in 2012.  This team returns players that saw the field in 2012, but none of them really excelled.  If Ole Miss wants to get to the 10+ win area this will be the group that does it for them.

The defense will be much improved in 2013.  This side of the ball will have the depth to allow it to finish games.  They will have playmakers at every level that will make the big plays.  Ole Miss was ranked 55^th in scoring defense last year.  If all the stars align this group has the potential to be a top 10 defense.  If that happens then there is no telling where the Rebels end up this year.

SEASON PREDICTION

The expectations are high for Ole Miss this year within their athletic department and fan base.  The first thing you do to make a prediction for a team’s season is go through the schedule and give “automatic wins”.  I say “automatic” because nothing is that, but Ole Miss should be 10+ point favorites against these “automatic wins.”  The automatic wins on the schedule are SEMO, Idaho, and Troy.  Honestly Auburn and Missouri should be no real trouble for Ole Miss, so they are in this category.  With 5 wins checked you have to think Ole Miss fans feel confident they will go at least 2 and 1 against Vandy, Arkansas, and MSU. 

We now have Ole Miss with at least 7 wins.  I can’t sit here and predict which one of the next four teams Ole Miss will beat, but I think it happens.  The teams are Texas, Bama, A&M, and LSU.  Ole Miss always plays LSU tough, so you know that game is going to be a coin flip.  Texas, Bama, and A&M look like tough games, but Ole Miss is not a guarantee win for any of those 3 teams.

One of the biggest games of the year for Ole Miss is this Thursday against Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has been a thorn in the side of Rebel fans for an extended period of time now.  The brutal truth is that Vanderbilt is a rival of Ole Miss.  A win Thursday could propel this team to the best case scenario situation.

The schedule for the Rebels is really the opposite of MSU.  Early season struggles are not the end of the world.  The back end of the schedule is really easy for Ole Miss.  Keep your heads up if the Rebels struggle early because if the Rebels end September 2-2 the best case scenario really could come into play.

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 5-7 (It would take something devastating for the Rebels to not go bowling in 2013)

My Predition: 9-3 ( I have a hard time picking Ole Miss to get to the 10 win point because games against Texas, Bama, A&M, and LSU are just games I can’t realistically pick Ole Miss in.  I think the Rebels will win all the games they are supposed to this year and have one upset.  9-3 and another trip to the Cotton Bowl is a damn good second season for Hugh Freeze. 

INTERESTING FACTS

Ole Miss has claimed national titles in 1959, 1960, and 1962.  This was prior to the current system.  Several teams claimed titles in those 3 years.  Either way if you can claim a title you must have been really good.

 First season of football for Ole Miss was in 1890.  The Rebels have gone 628-492-35.  That is a 56% winning percentage.

 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium was built in 1915.  Current capacity is 60,580.  Largest crowd ever was 62,663 against Alabama on October 10, 2009.  Stadium is named after legendary coach Johnny Vaught and Judge William Hemingway. 

Ole Miss has won 6 conference titles.  The most recent title was in 1963.

Ole Miss has had 11 consensus All-Americans. 

In 1904 Ole Miss defeated Union College 114-0.

Thank you to everyone for reading the blog.  Football season is here.  I wish every team the best of luck.      

 

 

 

 

 

 



Mississippi State Universty 2013 Football Preview

Mississippi State University Bulldogs





The uncertainty level is at an all-time high for me with Mississippi State heading into 2013.  Most years I know MSU is either going to suck, or they are going to be pretty good.  The Bulldogs second half against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and their performance against Northwestern in the Gator Bowl made me sick.  Those six quarters of football were as bad as any six quarters under Dan Mullen, especially the effort Tyler Russell gave.  Honestly, the entire second half of the season was pretty bad.   The record backs that statement up.

 

The Bulldogs did lose some key players, but they lost key players at skilled positions.  I have always felt that you can fill skill position roles much easier than you can the guys up front.  I think Chad Bumphis was probably as big of a loss as any one single player.  In his 4 years at MSU he was a solid football player for Dan Mullen.   

 

OFFENSE

Almost every media outlet lists Tyler Russell as a key returning player.  The only thing he was key to at the end of the year was the key to losing games.  At times on the sideline he looked like he had no idea where he was at.  In the Gator Bowl he looked like he walked from the bar to the locker room for the game.  The effort the Bulldogs displayed in that game was bad.  Russell’s effort stood out above all others as the worst.  Watching him in that game gave me flashbacks of Mike Henig against LSU.  Henig made Craig Steltz look like a hall of famer, much like Russell made the Northwestern defense look like Alabama.

At times the guy has flashes of absolute brilliance moving the team up and down the field with pin point execution.   Tyler Russell has many positive attributes.  The first is his experience in the line of fire.  He has played a ton of SEC football.  He basically is a second coach on the field at this point.  He has the arm strength to make any throw.  Russell is not a running quarterback, but he is pretty agile at times.  With all that being said he has never once shown me that he has the “IT” factor.  The “IT’ factor means everything for a quarterback and until he shows me he has it he will be the Achilles heel to the offense. 

Skill position is something I really don’t worry about much.  The Bulldogs have a stable of running backs, and they have guys that can catch the ball.  There were some key losses at receiver but as I said earlier I think the skill position guys are the easiest to replace.   I think Malcolm Johnson is the key guy in the category of offensive skill players.  He is a matchup nightmare.  If he stays healthy he is a guy Russell will look for often.

The offensive line returning could be the best offensive line under Mullen.  This group has depth and experience.  A couple of injuries early would deplete the depth fast, but if this unit stays healthy it will be a strong point for this team.  The line is obviously anchored by pre-season all SEC/American selection Gabe Jackson.  He is one of the best offensive linemen in the country.  The guys around him all have experience and talent.  If the line was not so strong I would go ahead and throw MSU to the wolves, but I think this group has the ability to really carry this team in 2013. 

At this point I see no reason why the offense won’t be successful simply because they should have the ability to run the ball against every team they play.  Returning experience up front is critical for the success of an offense and this team has that.  Tyler Russell needs to start off against Oklahoma State good and gain back some confidence.  If Russell gains confidence the Bulldogs will have the opportunity to be a special unit on offense.  This group will be productive against inferior opponents, but I really can’t make a prediction for the offense  against good teams because Tyler Russell is harder to figure out than a game of Pai Gow Poker at the casino. 

 

DEFENSE

This may sound crazy to some with the loss of Banks and Slay, but this side of the ball really excites me.  A good defensive front will make any group of defensive backs look good.  An example I always go back to is the NY Giants.  Their defensive front dominated in their two Super Bowl wins making their linebackers and defensive backs look like All-Pro type guys.  There is experience, depth, talent, youth, etc. returning up front.  Mark it down.. there’s several guys on the Bulldogs front that will play on Sundays.  If the defensive front gets the production it should out of some young guys this unit could be a top 3 defensive line in the SEC.

The linebacker group returns depth.  It has playmakers across the board at linebacker, especially Bernardrick McKinney.    McKinney will become a household name in the SEC over the next 2 years.  This unit does lose leading tackler from last 2 years in Cam Lawrence.  Cam Lawrence was a really good football player, but the guys sitting there waiting to replace him have more upside.  The biggest loss with Cam Lawrence will be in the communication category.  He was the quarterback of the defensive unit the last 2 years.  I look to McKinney to take over this role. 

The back group is obviously a question mark.  Losing 2 guys that will start in the NFL is never a positive.  You don’t just replace guys like Banks and Slay with one guy.  You replace them with a core that becomes stronger.  MSU must get more pressure out of the front four.  Pressure out of the front four will put the secondary in positive situations.

If I was asked what are the 3 biggest keys for the defensive unit in 2013.  I would say pressure, pressure, pressure.  Geoff Collins is now solely in charge of the defensive unit.  At times it looked to me like Chris Wilson was in over his head as defensive coordinator.  Geoff Collins preaches playmaking and being aggressive.  Everywhere Geoff Collins has been the coordinator the defenses have been really good.  The defenses he lead at both Western Carolina and FIU significantly improved in every category under him.   The bulldogs have experience and depth on the defensive line.  As I said earlier this group could be a top 3 defensive line.  This group needs to dominate.  Their dominating play could lead the defense to a top 20 rating in every major statistical category.

SEASON PREDICTION

The Bulldogs have been to 3 straight bowl games.  Expectations have been raised for this team.  At this point I can realistically say most fans would not be happy with a losing record.  A season that ends without post season play is in one word BAD.  The schedule for MSU is not easy, but is there any team in the SEC with an easy schedule?  The answer to that question is no.  Every team will play at least 3 or 4 top 10 teams during the season.  Crying about a tough schedule in the SEC is like crying about the heat in Mississippi during the summer. 

Money talks, so the Bulldogs are going to Houston to open the season against Oklahoma State.  There is no way that MSU or Dan Mullen would agree to this game if major money was not involved.  The matchup against Oklahoma State is a tough one.  Some media outlets have predicted OSU to win the Big 12 this year.  The fast paced offense OSU operates is similar to the offenses MSU really struggled against last year.  If MSU is not ready to play against the fast pace of OSU then I will have to blame the coaching staff.  This was obviously a weakness for the team last year.  Every practice should be used to practice against the up tempo because most of the teams MSU plays this year will be moving quickly. 

You hear me relate back to Vegas a lot because they are experts at creating lines.  The line on this game opened at -13, but currently sits at -12 ½.  I would never realistically predict a 10+ point dog to win a game.  They play the game for a reason because upsets happen.  MSU has the players to beat OSU, but I don’t see it happening.  Losing the opener would not be devastating, but winning it would change the entire outlook going forward.  The Bulldogs better get wins early because the back end of the schedule is tough.

MSU has too much talent on their football team at critical positions to implode this year.  This is a really good football team.  The problem is that they are in a conference with great teams.  I said this earlier, but I want to reiterate it.. the Bulldogs better get wins early because the back end of the schedule is tough.  Right off the top I can check 4 losses off (LSU, USC, A&M, Bama).  Ceiling for the Bulldogs is really 8 wins, but a dream season would have them with an upset. 

Best Case Scenario 9-4 (Not realistic)

Worst Case Scenario 4-8 (This would be a momentum killer for the program) 

My Prediction 6-6 (Bulldogs will have equal or superior talent to at least 7 teams on their schedule)

INTERESTING FACTS

Even though MSU was, so close in baseball this year the University has never won a national championship in any sport, EVER.

First year of football was in 1885.  All-time MSU has a losing record (515-549-39)

Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field is the 2^nd oldest on campus stadium behind Georgia Tech’s Bobby Dodd Stadium.  The stadium currently holds 55,082.  Record attendance was set on 11/14/2009 with a crowd of 58,103 against Alabama.  Stadium is currently undergoing a 75 million dollar expansion.  The stadium will look awesome after the expansion/renovation. 

MS State has had 3 consensus All-Americans (38 named All-American by various media outlets)

MS State has won just 1 conference title.  It was in 1941

I didn't mention this in the above blog because I am still holding out faith that Tyler Russell will actually come to play this year.  If you thought about everything I said with Russell you know there is obvious doubt in my mind about him.  I have heard from countless people that Dak Prescott is one of the most respected players on the roster.  He is chomping at the bits to get an opportunity.  If Russell does not perform I feel like Dan Mullen may have to pull a page out of the Old Ball Coach's playbook and yank him.  Steve Spurrier has tried to pull quarterbacks mid play before.  If Russell plays bad on a drive or in a quarter I think Mullen has to pull him.  Maybe not for the season, but at least long enough to wake him up.  I think MSU would have won the Gator Bowl if Prescott had been put in, but they would have lost Russell's confidence forever. 

Thank you to all for reading.  Ole Miss will be next, and the number of readers on the Ole Miss blog almost doubles MSU and USM together.  I hope to make it my best one yet!

 





 



 



University of Southern Mississippi 2013 Football Preview

University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

 

Southern Mississippi is starting over for the second time in 2 seasons.  It is extremely rare that a coach only makes it one season at a school before being fired.  Ellis Johnson was fired after one year because his team did something extremely rare.  They did not win a single football game.  I did not think the hiring of Ellis Johnson was a good fit for USM, but I never imagined they would not win a single game under him.  USM needs an energetic coach with an offensive background.  Johnson and his staff were anything but that.

All that being said, this is a new year.  2012 is gone and USM has a new coach heading into the 2013 season.  Fedora came from Oklahoma State.  He was successful at USM.  If the formula worked once why not try it again.  USM has once again hired away the OSU offensive coordinator.  This time around it is Todd Monken.   Funny story is that Monken was passed up before the 2012 season in favor of Ellis Johnson.  Monken overhauled the entire coaching staff.  He only retained one coach from Johnson’s staff.

 

OFFENSE



Monken is one of the new age offensive minds that believes in playing fast, both during plays and between plays.  If his offense gets a first down they are going to step on the gas.  It is hard to play fast on the first few plays of a drive because if you go 3 and out your defense could be back on the field in only a few minutes setting them up for a bad situation.  Earning just one first down allows an offense to move quicker.  It is really a snowball effect because if they get 2 or 3 first downs they are taking very little time off the clock.  If you have watched Oregon in recent years or even OSU this is exactly what they do.  Monken is trying to bring that to USM. 

I believe Monken’s formula for success will work in Conference USA.   The problem with Monken’s offense this year is that he doesn’t have a quarterback to operate it.  The quarterback position could be a carousel.  The system Monken runs does most of the work for the QB.  Monken just needs someone who can manage the offense and make routine throws.    

One of the best things to help a young, undeveloped quarterback is a good running game.  USM has a pretty decent group of running backs, but a running game depends on the offensive line.  The offense line is a major question mark.  There are a couple of returning players, but as a whole the offensive line is a weakness.  The offensive line is probably the biggest concern for USM heading into the season.

If you didn’t understand anything from what I said you understood that the offense for USM has issues up and down the depth chart heading into the 2013 season.  Issues on offense are something I believe Monken can handle.  His offensive game plan will hide some holes in the offense.  Even during an obvious offensive rebuilding year I think Monken will get some production out of this unit.

 

DEFENSE

This seems pretty obvious because USM did not win a game last year, but like all other units their defense was terrible in 2012.  When I think of USM in my lifetime I always just assume they are going to have a good defense.  Monken’s best decision during the offseason may have been to get Dave Duggan to come back to Hattiesburg as the defensive coordinator.  Duggan was at USM under Fedora.  When Fedora went to North Carolina Duggan went with him.  Duggan is back and is very familiar with many of the defensive players returning in 2013.

First thing I have to mention about this unit is that they will never be able to replace Jamie Collins.  That dude was a beast.  Collins will become a household name playing for the Patriots.  Jamie Collins did everything for the defensive unit in 2012.  Collins drew a big star from every team USM played.  Two guys were allocated to him on almost every play.  I can’t imagine how bad the defensive unit would have been in 2012 without Collins.

This unit returns some experienced players at every level.  Even with the loss of Collins, this unit has the chance to be significantly improved under Duggan.  5 of the 7 defenders at linebacker and defensive back are seniors, including linebackers Alan Howze and Dylan Reda.   Question mark for this team is the defensive line and the lack of quality depth.  This unit has the potential to be very good if some young guys can emerge as contributors. 

This sounds so obvious, but the key to this defense is getting turnovers.  In 2011 the Golden Eagles produced 28 turnovers.  In 2012 they only produced 12 turnovers.  With the number of quality athletes on this unit I see no reason why they don’t regain some confidence and be dominating in the C-USA.  

SEASON PREDICTION

Who created this brutal schedule for USM?  Their schedule is without question the toughest in the C-USA and maybe the toughest of all non BCS schools in the country.  USM goes on the road to Nebraska, Arkansas, Boise State, ECU, Marshall, and La Tech.  If Monken gets some consistent quarterback play and gets the offense going this team will go bowling.  If the quarterback and offensive line struggle this is going be another forgettable year in Hattiesburg.  I think Monken will get some steady play out of the offense, but USM is notorious for losing to a team they should beat.  I think that one let down game will cause them to miss post season play.       

Best Case Scenario: 7 and 5

Worst Case Scenario: 2 and 10

My Prediction: 5 and 7  

INTERESTING FACTS

As stated above it is rare for a coach to only get one year in before being fired.  Joe Lee Dunn was fired at Ole Miss after just one year in 1994. 

USM had compiled 18 winning seasons in a row heading into 2012.  Heading into the 2012 season that streak was the 4^th longest in FBS behind Florida State (37), Florida (26), and Virginia Tech (21).

Stadium Capacity is 36,000.  Stadium was originally constructed in 1932.  Name was changed to Carlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M Roberts Stadium in 2004.  Major renovation took place in 2008 with the addition of 4,000 seats and 33 suites.  Attendance record was set on September 5, 2009 against Alcorn State.  Attendance for that game was 36,232.

Noteworthy football alumnist - Brett Favre, Derrick Nix, Sammy Winder, Tyrone Nix, Reggie Collier, and Hall of Famer Ray Guy.

Southern Mississippi has never had a consensus All-American

8 Conference Championships - Most recent was in 2011 under Larry Fedora

USM is considered to have three major rivals.  They have a winning record against all three.  Those teams are La Tech(Rivalry in Dixie), Memphis(Black and Blue Bowl), and Tulane(Battle for the Bell). 

 

As always I am enjoy comments, feedbacks, suggestions, criticism, and especially compliments.  If you have an opinion on something I would like to hear it.  Thanks for reading. 



Week 10 MS college football preview

First thing I want to point out is that this is WEEK TEN of the college football season!  You know how you couldn't wait for the season to start in June, July, Aug... Well it is almost over now.  We have rolled into the month of November.  This is basically the last month of the season.  You better really take in this month because it will be over in a blink.  Bowl season will be gone and we will be sitting in the miserable month of February wondering what we are going to watch on tv.

Southern Miss is absolutely atrocious.  They lost to RICE by 27 points.  Rice is not good at football.  Prior to playing USM they had only won 2 games.  USM is 2 and 6 against the spread this year.  Basically USM would have been the best team in all of football to bet against this year. 

The Eagles are a 3 point favorite this weekend against UAB.  This game may match up the worst 2 teams in college football.  I honestly know nothing about UAB beside the fact that they only have one win, against a FCS school (Southeastern Louisiana).  Based on stats it appears UAB can actually score points, but their defense gives up much more.  Southern Miss gives up a lot of points.  It really doesnt even matter who wins this game so I am going to move on to another topic. 

Ole Miss has been equally shockingly good as USM has been shockingly bad.  The Rebels have far exceeded my expections of win totals for the year already.  1 more win and the Rebels are bowl eligible.  Hugh Freeze would be my coach of the year if that happens.  The road is tough in the SEC in November though, so it will take quality football to get that last win.

Ole Miss fans have been sitting on a high horse this week after a win at Arkansas.  I predicted the win, so it did not come as any shock to me when Ole Miss won.  Arkansas is terrible this year.  Their defense is without a doubt the worst in the SEC.  Tyler Wilson looks worse and worse every week.  The guy should have thrown at least 4 ints against Ole Miss in the first half.  Some passes looked like he was throwing to the defenders.  Ole Miss gave up 161 yards rushing to Dennis Johnson.  If Arkansas had run the ball more they would have won the game.  Not to take anything away from Ole Miss, but Tyler Wilson lost this game for the Razorbacks.

The opponent this week does not have a bad defense and they have everything on the line.  Ole Miss has their work cut out for them this week on the road in Athens.  Georgia does not boast a running game that has major statistics, but last week I watched them run the ball at will against Florida.  Florida has a significantly better run defense than Ole Miss.  If Georgia commits to the run they will run for 250+ yard this week.

Georgia won the game against Florida simply because their qb didnt't play quite as bad as Florida's did.  Quarterback play is becoming a reoccuring theme in relation to wins and losses.  Ole Miss is getting quality quarterback play out of Bo Wallace which is giving them a chance week in and week out.  The Ole Miss coaching staff is really smart with a lot of play calls.  They throw a lot of slip/bubble screens, stop routes, and just short passes in general.  These are all extensions of the running game and are really high percentage plays.  Watch the Ole Miss offense this week they will run the counter power/read out of shotgun and out of the same formation they will throw a stop route to the outside with 1 or 2 receivers blocking.  They ran the same combination of plays 10+ times against both Auburn and Arkansas.  They ran the same play 2 to 3 times in a row at least 5 times against Arkansas.  I credit the Ole Miss coaching staff.  It sounds simple, but if a team is not going to adjust keep doing it.   

Ole Miss will have a chance between the hedges this week if Georgia starts trying to throw the ball a lot.  Aaron Murray is much like Tyler Wilson... overrated.  If Georgia tries to get fancy and Murray turns the ball over multiple times the Rebels will be in this game at the end.  If Georgia plays conservative and sticks to running the ball and playing great defense they will win the game by 14+ points. 

Mississippi State lost to Alabama last weekend.  I really did not expect anything else.  I hoped the Bulldogs would win, but I understood what they were against.  Bama is not losing to anyone this year.  This may be the most balanced college football team I have ever seen.  They have an incredible offensive line that allows them to be balanced, their defense is out of this world good, their special teams is perfect, and they arguably have the greatest college football coach ever.  Mark it down.. They will beat LSU by 2-3 touchdowns this week in a night game at Tiger Stadium.  After 10 weeks if you have the number 1 scoring defense and the number 9th scoring offense, in the SEC, you have an incredible football team.  I originally said 3 touchdowns, but after looking stats of the LSU defense they will hold Bama down some on offense. 

The whole we believe deal last week was interesting.  It showed a fan base that has changed over the last several years.  The movement was quick and strong, but that movement really needs to be this week.  I believe in Mississippi State.  The change I have seen over the last 5 years is amazing.  Everything about the University and the athletic program has done a 180.  I never hide from the fact that I am a MSU alumni, fan, season ticket holder, etc, etc.  I believe in the direction MSU is going.  One loss to Alabama is not going to change my thoughts on that.  The we believe needs to be in full effect this Saturday.     

You will hear me say 'this is the biggest game for a team this year' a lot, but I really think this is the number 1 biggest game of the year for MS State.  Texas A&M is playing good football over the last few weeks.  MSU is coming back from Tuscaloosa with their tails tucked.  The line on this game opened at TAMU -2.5.  It quickly moved to -7.  The line currently sits a 6.5-7.  One thing I know is that you will really see what the Bulldogs are made of this Saturday.  Are they a championship caliber team or are they just average again?

Number 1 key to this game is stopping Manziel.  I watched the LSU game against TAMU.  Manziel and the Aggies came out on FIRE early, but LSU made adjustments.  LSU has superior athletes to MSU on defense, but LSU stopped Manziel by rushing 3 guys with blitzers off the corner.  His running ability, at this point in his career, is superior to his passing ability.  LSU, after the first quarter, had a spy on Manziel.  They rotated which side they blitzed from to keep him off guard.  When LSU blitzed they put the spy opposite of the blitzers expecting Manziel to roll that way.  The people making the defensive decisions for MSU have expentially more knowledge than I do about defenses and make a lot more money than I do.  That, however, does not keep me from having an opinion.  What I think MSU needs to do to stop Manziel is drop a lot of guys in coverage and make him drive the ball (10-15 play drives).  If you make him do that he will make mistakes/turnovers.  If MSU can get 2-3 turnovers they will win this game.

There is nothing wrong with MSU on offense.  They just met a superior opponent last week.  Texas A&M is not even in the same country as Bama on defense.  MSU will move the ball and get points on the board.  The key in this game is not at all the offense.  The key is the paragraphs above.  The key is the MSU defense showing what they are made of and stopping Manziel.  It will take an entire 60 minute effort from everyone to contain the guy.  If the defense lets their guard down for 1 play he will be gone.  Time to really see what this MSU team is all about! 

     
       

 


       

Week 9 Mississippi College Football Preview

I will first apologize for my lack of blog production this month, but work takes priority over writing this blog.  I write this just for fun.  October has been a very busy month for me.  I spend a lot of time at the computer when I am working and honestly do not feel like spending more time when I am finished with work every day.  Writing these blogs is a lot opinion, but I try to be as credible as possible with my facts.  That takes time.  I hope you get something out of this week and thank you for taking the time to read.  

Southern Mississippi is absolutely terrible this year.  I was completely wrong in all my comments about their coaching hire and their team this year.  Goal for this team now is to win a game or two.  USM AD needs to admit his mistake like me and clean house.  Go young with a coaching hire.

As if the record wasn't bad enough the story on the street for USM is that the athletic department is in a financial crisis and Anthony Alfords mom is getting arrested in the stands.  SMH! 

I will stop with USM now because any statistic I give you will show you just how bad they really are.  The most import stat is 0 wins. 

The path that Ole Miss is on is at the very least a year ahead of what I thought.  Hugh Freeze is absolutely the person that deserves credit for that with Bo Wallace right behind him.  The Ole Miss offense so far this year is averaging 30 points a game.  They averaged 13.7 last year.  I figured Ole Miss would improve some on offense this year based on the tract record of Hugh Freeze and his offenses, but I would have never guessed it to be that significant.

A bowl game is not unrealistic for Ole Miss.  Before the year I basically said there is no way that could happen.  Ole Miss will have a shot at a win in all five of their remaining games.  They should be an underdog in all, but the spreads will be low.  I said at the beginning of the year that a bowl game by Hugh Freeze and his team deserves him to be in contention for coach of the year.

On to the matchup this week for Ole Miss.  The Rebels go to Little Rock to play Arkansas in an early game.  The early line on this was basically just the home field advantage which was 4.5 points.  This line is still basically an even matchup with Arkansas getting a few points because of the home game.  The current line is 5.  The O/U is really intriguing in this game at 64.  If both teams get it going like they can on offense that could be demolished.

After a bad start to the season by Arkansas the Razorbacks have steadied the ship some with a couple of wins against the worst two teams in the SEC.  The defensive unit for Arkansas ranks 93rd in the nation.  They really are probably worse than that, but two games against Kentucky and Auburn helped them statistically. 

Ole Miss will move the ball up and down the field against Arkansas.  The key to the game for the Rebels is scoring touchdowns not field goals.  I give Ole Miss the edge in this game.  I think Ole Miss is better than Arkansas on offense and defense.  I think Ole Miss goes to Little Rock and takes this win.  1 more win to get bowl eligible.    

Mississippi State has won their first 7.  I thought when their schedule came out in the spring that there was a real possibility of this happening.  At times the Bulldogs have looked very suspect against some inferior opponents, but at times they have shown flashes of greatness.  Every unit on this team has played great at times, but every unit has made mistakes.  No matter who they played or how they played MSU has 7 wins and 0 loses.  That is the only stat that matters at this point.

Vegas brought the opening line out on this game at 24.  This really caught me off guard.  I was thinking Sunday before the line was introduced that it would be 10-17 points.  This is a true testimate to the respect that the oddsmakers have for Nick Saban and this Alabama team.  I am a firm believer that Las Vegas really knows what they are doing when it comes to picking spreads so this scares me.

With all that being said I don't believe the MSU coaching staff and team feel like they are 24 points inferior to Alabama.  The first thing that comes to my mind when I think about what I learned in my life about sports is underdogs.  As the week goes on I am hearing less and less talk from MSU coaches and players.  I think that is a good sign that they are getting their heads right for a war Saturday night at Bryant Denny.  

Someone posed a question to me today that really got me thinking.  Who has Alabama played?  Everyone is saying MSU has played no one, but really neither has Bama.  The ultimate comparison is Tennessee.  Both teams have played Tennessee in consecutive games.  If MSU had kept going in the second half like they did in the first their score would have been comparable to the Bama score.  I know I am saying a lot of ifs, but that really is what you are depending on when you are going on the road to play the undeniable number 1 team in country.

A few keys I have in this game... MSU needs to be flawless on special teams.  Up to this point they have been anything but that.  The punting game has been stellar, but all other units have been below average at best.  The special teams for MSU will have to play a perfect football game.

MSU will have to find some way to get the running game going against a Bama defense that allows no one to do that.  Alabama is number 1 in the nation against the run allowing only 58.7 yards per game.  It may take Tyler Russell throwing the ball some, but at some point in the game MSU is going to have to run the ball if they have a chance to win.  Running the ball builds time of possession and time of possession will be a major indicator in the outcome of the game.

My last key in this game is the X-factor.  Will something go right for the Bulldogs early?  Will someone make a game changing play?  Will someone have a career changing game?  I am a realist and I fully understand the challenge MSU is up against this week.  This would be an upset for the ages.  One thing MSU absolutely has going for them this week is that every single person in the country is pulling for them except Alabama fans! 

   

   

Week Four Mississippi College Football Preview

Things are not looking very good in Hattiesburg through two games.  This team possibly could be the first team in almost 2 decades to not make it to a bowl game if things continue the way they are.  One thing that has been constant basically over my lifetime is USM having winning seasons. 

The East Carolina game was won in almost every statistical category by USM except the one that matters and the one that leads to the one that matters.  USM lost on the scoreboard and in the turnover game.  The three turnovers came on the first three drives of the second half.  All three turnovers led to points by ECU and a win by ECU.  The USM defense really played pretty good only allowing 228 total yards to ECU. 

It looks like USM is struggling to run the ball (averaged 2.1 yards a carry against ECU).  They are having to put a lot more pressure on a freshman quarterback than they should because of the inability to run.  A true freshman quarterback can not win in any league without some help.  The experienced offensive line for USM needs to stop being soft.  If I were Ellis Johnson this week the offensive line would be hearing a lot of man to man talk.   

I think there is still time to steady the ship in Hattiesburg, but the time is NOW.  USM goes on the road this week to Western Kentucky as a 4.5 point underdog.  WKU is coming off a double overtime win against Kentucky.  USM has more talent that Western Kentucky, but they have problems in areas that are hard to overcome.  I hope I am completely wrong in this prediction, but I see USM losing by 2 touchdowns this weekend.  WKU -4.5 may be my pick of the week.  If USM gets rolled up by WKU this weekend then the crowds in Hattiesburg will be very slim the rest of the year.   

I will start with the bad with Ole Miss this week and lead into the positives.  People at this game had to have a sore neck Sunday from watching Texas go up and down the field so fast.  Texas basically did anything they wanted to do on offense in their massacre of the Ole Miss defense.  I thought heading into the season that the Ole Miss defense was going to be a really weak spot.  Their first true test exposed them, to say the least.  When I say Texas did whatever they wanted on offense I mean it.  They ran the ball for 350 yard and passed for 326.  One of those figures would have an offense saying they had a good game, but both have an offense saying we had a great game.

On to the bright spots for the Rebels.  The offense looked good again.  If you had told me before the game Ole Miss would score 31 points I would have said they have a legitimate shot of winning the game.  399 yards of total offense against a Texas defense that gives up yards is not great, but 31 points against a Texas defense that doesn't give up points is pretty good.  The Ole Miss offense will keep this football team in a lot of games this year.  They may even steal a win somewhere down the line for this team.  No matter what the outcome is in SEC play having a team score and compete is a lot better than the product Houston Nutt was providing last year.

Ole Miss has one more cupcake game playing on the road at Tulane Saturday.  After that the schedule is brutal, but that is for next week.  The game this week has numerous favorable matchups for Ole Miss.  The main favorable matchup is the Tulane defense vs the Ole Miss offense.  They are not very good on defense.  I give the Rebels a huge advantage in this matchup.  If the Ole Miss offense continues to move forward they could hang 50 on Tulane.

The line for the game this weekend currently sits at -17.5 (started at -15).  I really liked this line under 17.  I still like Ole Miss at the current spread because I think 42-21 is the final in this game.  3-1 to start the season is right where I expected the Rebels to be.  First step to getting a program heading in the correct direction is to win the games you are supposed to win.  Hugh Freeze is doing that so far.

The Ole Miss topic was ended by saying "win the games you are supposed to win."  To Dan Mullen's credit he has done an excellent job of this since he has been in Starkville.  The Bulldogs got a scare against Troy this weekend.  I really didn't expect it to be any different.  Troy has a good football team and this was the biggest game ever at Troy.  A win is a win, and I honestly don't think much into this game.  The two spots that looked below average are the wide receivers and the defense.  I really have very little doubt in these 2 units going forward.  This may have been the wake up call they needed.

Heading into the season I was worried about the offensive line for MSU.  I knew they had some guys returning and had younger guys ready to step up, but I had doubt.  This unit through 3 games has proved to be pretty solid.  The competition will get much stiffer, but the success in these early games will build their confidence.  Confidence in yourself and your teammates is critical when you get into the meat of the schedule.  

South Alabama comes to Starkville this weekend as a large underdog.  The line for this game is currently -34.  I like South Alabama against the spread because of what Dan Mullen does in these games.  If you have a maroon jersey on Saturday you will probably play a lot of plays.  Dan is not looking to embarrass smaller teams.  In these games his main goal is for the first group to play solid then to get as many people playing time as possible.  The younger guys playing late will give up plays, but the game experience they are getting is invaluable heading into the future.  MSU will score around 50 in this game, but I think USA gets a couple of tds and a field goal.  49-17 is my score prediction.

MSU sits right where I expected them to be through three games and it is a good spot.  After this week the Bulldogs will be 4-0 heading into a bye week.  Bye weeks are really tricky because they can hurt a team just as much as they can help.  This bye week is not going to hurt this team because they really have not played very well up to this point.  The coaches will have several game films to evaluate with the players.  The bye week will be used to clean up mistakes.  Not wanting to look too far into the future, but this could be a special year in Starkville.