End of Regular Season

I can not give enough compliments to the USM football team/coach staff. They went on the road as pretty large underdogs and beat a really good Houston team. This win was not a fluke because Houston had EVERYTHING to play for in this game. USM won this game from the opening kick off to the very end in all aspects of the game. Bad news for USM fans is that your coach benefited the most from the win in Houston. There are numerous reports coming out that Larry Fedora has taken the UNC coaching job. I tend to not believe "reports" from "sources" but there are some pretty significant reporters saying he is in at UNC. I can't even begin to tell you who should be the next head football coach at USM. There are plenty of qualified people who would love the opportunity.

On to my next topic about USM. Why in hell did USM decide to go to the Hawaii Bowl. Yes, that is a great perk for the coaches and players, but it sucks for alumni/fans. There won't be a 100 USM fans at this game. Bowl games are a time when alumni associations and athletic departments show off to boosters. It is a time for the universities to raise major money. Reports are that USM turned down more than 1 bowl for a trip to Hawaii. I don't see many positives out of going to this bowl except that they should get a victory if they can focus on the game.

Everyone is well aware that Ole Miss has hired Hugh Freeze as their 37th head football coach. I can't say whether Freeze will be a success or not at Ole Miss because no one really knows enough about him to make a guess. A couple of things I do know is that it will be very hard for him to win at Ole Miss next year. The odds of him winning in his second year are not good either. My major question is will Ole Miss give Hugh Freeze time to learn as a coach and develop a team. It is going to take at least 3 years to rebuild the train wreck that is the Ole Miss football program. The Rebels do have some young talent returning next year, but they have zero depth on both fronts. You have no chance in the SEC without a solid offensive and defensive line. I won't get into the schedule for Ole Miss next year because it is not set in stone yet, but my early analysis of it is that it is hard.

Mississippi State did not have the year some people anticipated. I think the loss at Auburn was a major setback for the Bulldogs, but they did rally and get 6 wins. The 6 wins were not against the greatest opponents, but that really doesnt matter. The Bulldogs are heading to Nashville for a bowl game that really is pretty exciting for the fan base/football program/athletic department. MS State has a pretty large footprint in the Nashville area. MS State will raise serious money for the university in their time in Nashville. There is a long stretch of highway between Ms State and the top tier teams in the SEC, but back to back bowl games is a step in the right direction. I will have another blog later talking about the Bulldogs matchup with the Demon Deacons in the Music City Bowl.

Few other notes:

HEISMAN

My heisman list: 1. Richardson 2. RG3 3. Luck 4. Ball. 5. LaMichael James

I leave Mathieu (honey badger) off because I don't think he is even the best defensive player LSU has. He is fun to watch, but he is not even the best player on his own team.

Trent Richardson is my heisman because he has put up incredible stats against the best opponents in the country.

RG3 has gaudy stats this year, but the truth is that the Big 12 is down. The highest ranked Big 12 scoring defense is 33rd(2 in the top 50). The SEC has 7 teams with defenses ranked in the top 30.

National Championship

Everyone in the SEC got what they wanted... a rematch. ESPN/ABC/FOX/etc got what they wanted... a rematch. The truth is that LSU would massacre Oklahoma State. With all the criticism the BCS gets they got this right. LSU/BAMA rematch is what needed to happen. People across the country are not happy with it because just when they thought the SEC could not dominate any more they have. Those same people mad about the matchup will be watching it.

Bowl Games

The SEC team is a favorite in every bowl game they are playing in except the National Championship. The SEC really isn't an underdog in that game either because it is a pick. That is Las Vegas showing their respect for the SEC. Sports writers/polls are sometimes biased because because of the location of teams. Las Vegas is not biased toward anyone.

College football all year

College football has grown into a machine that does not stop just because the regular season is over. The regular season rolls into the 35 bowl games. Bowl season rolls into recruiting, recruiting into spring, and spring/summer into the 2012season. The growth of college football significantly benefits the middle of the road schools like all teams in MS. MS State and Ole Miss have enough money now to do whatever they want to do within reason.

Thank you all for reading this year. I will have a couple of more post before/during the bowl season.

Thanks again

Wally

Week 12 Analysis/Week 13 Preview

Where did the football season go?? This week is the final regular season week of the year for most teams. I can't say this was the best season I can remember, but there were some great moments, games, and upsets. The top 3 teams in the SEC are unbelievably talented. They have run through everyone except each other. The final regular season week of the year has LSU in yet another huge game. Scheduling has not been on the side of the Tigers this year, but when you have a great football team you can overcome a little bad scheduling. This is the first of the big games for LSU that is actually at home where everyone knows LSU definitely has a home field advantage.

The road to the National Championship is officially wide open with Oklahoma State losing Friday. OK State lost to an Iowa State team that was a 26.5 point underdog. Oklahoma did almost the same thing when they lost to Texas Tech on October 22nd. Texas Tech was a 29 point underdog in that game. I really don't see how a team with everything on the line loses to a significant underdog. I can't contribute the OK State loss to them looking ahead because they have a bye this week. If their game against Oklahoma was this weekend I could maybe understand the let down. OK State can officially kiss their chance at a National Championship good bye. If LSU and Bama both win out I think we will get a rematch in the National Championship.

Not sure where to start with USM. Yes they played on a short week which is always difficult, but they were playing against a football team that is not very good. USM was a 24 point favorite. I will say the same thing I said about Ok State and Oklahoma. How does a team with so much on the line come out flat and lose to a significantly inferior opponent? I have no answer to that question, so I will move forward to this week. USM had a chance at an unbelievable season, but all is not lost. A Memphis team that is probably one of the worst 3 or 4 teams in the nation comes to Hattiesburg this Saturday as a 35-36 point underdog. Everything is on the line Saturday for USM. A win sets USM up for a matchup against Houston in the C-USA Championship. There is just no way a team that has a chance to play in the conference championship does not get up for the final regular season home game. USM wins this game, but I don't see it getting anywhere close to the 35 point spread.

Everyone reading this is well aware that this is the week when MSU and Ole Miss battle for the Golden Egg. The Egg Bowl this year will represent the 108th meeting between Ole Miss and MS State. Ole Miss leads the series 60-41-6. Currently MS State is in control of this series with back to back wins. Ms State could win 3 in a row for the first time in my life time if they can get a win Saturday (Ole Miss has won 3+ games in a row 3 times in my life). MSU holds the longest win streak. MSU won 13 straight from 1911-1925. This was way before my time so I really could care less about that stat, but it is something cool to know. If you know me well you know I respect sporting events that took place before I was alive, but I really don't care about them. Who won the National Championship in 1962 is completely irrelevant to me for a couple of reasons. First - I was not even alive Second- 3 teams claimed the title that year. You really don't have a champion if 3 teams are claiming they are the champ. FYI - I picked 1962 because that is when Ole Miss won their most recent "National Championship".

On to what everyone really cares about.. the 2011 edition of the Egg Bowl. I will lead with Ole Miss. A lot of talk this week was about LSU downing the ball 4 straight times on the 1 yard line with 5+/- minutes left in the game. I feel like Les Miles was doing this out of respect, but this is the ultimate slap in the face for a coaching staff and football team. Ole Miss will be going to Starkville without their most valuable 2 weapons on offense (Mackey and Scott). With them the Ole Miss offense was pretty bad, but without them they are awful. Ole Miss will have a very tough time sustaining a drive in this game. The Rebels may get a few big plays out of Moncrief or Brassell, but they just don't have the offense to drive the length of the field with a 10+ play drive.

Here is what is going to happen in this game. The Ole Miss offense will not be able to get anything going against a MSU defense that is just better. I am not saying MS State has a great defense, but this is the worst Ole Miss offense I have ever seen. The Ole Miss defense which lacks depth at every position especially up front will start the game off strong. The lack of offense from the Rebels will cause the defense to wear down once the initial emotions of the rivalry game fade off. Once the Ole Miss defense wears down MSU will just start pounding them with the running game. If Vick Ballard gets 20+ touches this game State easily wins. If he had gotten 20+ touches every game this year MS State would have 2 more victories. Simply put if Dan Mullen does not try to out coach himself with crazy play calls MSU wins this game. If MSU scores 10+ points they probably leave with a win and a trip to a bowl game. My bold prediction in this game is that MSU covers.

Blog is long this week so I am only going to have one additional comment.

The Arkansas/LSU game is one that intrigues me because it is not very often that you have a top 5 matchup where the spread is over 10 points(currently 12-13). Vegas clearly respects LSU. My key question in this game is can Arkansas protect Tyler Wilson?? I am not sure that is possible against this LSU defense, but if they are able to give him time to throw he could make some stuff happen. This will be the best group of skill players the LSU defense has faced all year. The talent of the skill players is really irrelevant though if the line can't protect the quarterback. If Tyler Wilson stays off the ground this game could be close.. If LSU starts to knock him around the Bayou Bengals will have this sealed up heading in the 4th quarter. A hidden fact in this game is that Arkansas is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home(loss at Bama and 2 close wins at Vandy and Ole Miss). I think LSU wins this game by 3 touchdowns.. bet on it.

I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving Holiday!! Thank you for reading!

DEER SEASON!!!!

I am going a little different direction with this blog away from college football toward deer hunting. One of the great joys in my life is deer hunting. The reasons are really endless. In my opinion there are really 3 opening days for deer season in Mississippi. They are bow season, rifle season, and rut. Today/tonight there will be a lot of people across the state of MS loading up with family and friends to go to deer camp. Weekends like this are when I appreciate living in MS where spending time at hunting camp with people close to you are a part of life.

This hunting season may be my most special one yet just because of how hard it has been to get back to this point. The last 5 months have been about trying to get things back to normal after the flood that will be known as the Great MS River Flood of 2011. The road back has been far from easy, and it is something I hope I don’t have to ever deal with again. I have had countless people spend hours and hours helping me. To everyone that helped me I say THANK YOU because there is no way I could have done it without all of you. All things being said everything is getting close to normal. From the 6,000+ pictures I have gone through since September the deer herd looks solid on Davis Island. The pictures I have pulled have been a serious help with motivation through the middle of all the hard work.

Over the last few years I have grown to learn more and more about deer. One thing that consistently comes up is hunting a mature white tail deer (4.5 years or older) is extremely difficult. These animals are typically very smart. Most serious hunters are well aware of how smart these animals are because if you have hunted one you have failed before. Many people are constantly talking about how much a deer scored, and I will admit I am one of the worst about it. The real truth is that if you kill a buck, whether it is small or large, that is a mature animal you should be proud of yourself.

I have been thinking back the last few days about my hunting experiences last year. Last year I killed the biggest deer of my life up to this point, but as crazy as it may sound that was not my best hunting experience of the year. My last hunt of the year last season was one with Stephanie. During the hunt there were deer everywhere. I can’t remember the exact amount but it was around 13 or 14 with 5 nice bucks in the field at one time. After the hunt we talked a little about what had happened. I don’t know if she realized how unbelievable of an experience that was until I told her that was the best hunt I had ever been on in my life. It is afternoons like that where you really appreciate the opportunity to experience something like that.


These experiences I talk about do not start or end on the stand. They start with hunting camps. One of the things I have discovered over the last few years is that hunting camps are more along the lines of a social club than a hunting club. There are some people who are serious hunters. However, these people are way in the minority at my camp and at most camps I have been to. Hunting camps do start with people hoping to kill that great trophy buck, but they are more about everything else than actually killing something. If you read that and don’t understand what I am talking about you are missing out on one of the finer things in the life of a hunter.


I hope everyone reading this that is hunting this weekend/year has some good “experiences”. You will know when they come because it will be something you don’t forget. This is probably not being read by many people who don’t hunt, but if you are one of them then get someone to take you. At the very least you will get to experience some peace and quite which is valued at a premium these days. Thank you for reading and Good Luck! Wally

Week 11 Analysis/Week 12 Preview

Two more high ranked teams fell this weekend. Earlier in the day TCU knocked off Boise State and later in the day Oregon beat Stanford. Everyone may say Boise State had the curse of the kicker again, but if you look at the stats from this game you have to give credit to TCU. They absolutely torched the Boise State defense through the air. All that aside an incredible streak came to an end with this loss. Boise State had not lost a home game in a decade (65 games). A stat almost as impressive as that is that Boise State has lost 4 games dating back to their 2007 bowl game loss all by 3 or less points. Every person you ask about Boise State will have a different opinion. My opinion on Boise State is that they have a football program that all but 5 or 6 other programs in the country wish they had. Could Boise State win the SEC? Probably not, but that really is an irrelevant question because they will never have a chance.

Southern Miss fans do not have a single finger nail after watching the ending to their game against UCF. Stats on this game show that USM completely dominated every aspect of the game except the scoreboard. Credit the UCF defense for consistently holding USM to field goals. USM found a way to win the game and as I always say a win is a win. USM has clinched at least a share of the CUSA East. If they win one of their next two games against drastically inferior opponents they will be given an opportunity to play Houston in the championship game. USM plays on a short week against UAB Thursday night. This game is being televised by CBS Sports Network at 7. USM is currently a 23 point favorite in this game. I look for USM to easily win this game, but 23 points may be too many on a short week. USM entered their last game with a 7 game winning streak against the spread.

Not only have the wheels come off the wagon in Oxford, but the axle has broken too. I don't know which loss is worse for the Rebels.. The 23 point loss to Vandy, the 17 point loss to Kentucky, or the 20 point loss to La Tech. You ask an Ole Miss fan which of those they would rather have and they would really have to think about an answer. The thought of having all three of those in 1 season honestly never crossed my mind as something that could happen. With 2 games left what does the Ole Miss football team do? They obviously have no shot this weekend against LSU who opened as a 30.5 point favorite. As bad as it may sound, but any line under 30 against LSU could be a good bet. The line currently sits a 29.5. If you are an Ole Miss fan just sell your ticket to someone from LSU and sit in the Grove during this one.

Arkansas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between them and Mississippi State. Mississippi State has never won at War Memorial Stadium. Arkansas is currently a 13 point favorite. This will be the 5th top 15 team the Bulldogs play this year with a loss to the prior 4. All things on paper point toward a Bulldog loss. However, this is college football and you are dealing with 18-22 year olds. The Arkansas team is absolutely looking forward to their game next Friday against LSU. If they win the game against LSU they could represent the west in Atlanta and probably the SEC in the National Championship. I can't sit here and predict MS State will win this game because Arkansas is a far superior football team than MSU. However, if MSU can get some early breaks this game could be close in the end just like the match up last year in Starkville. That game went back in forth and could not even be settled without overtime.

Several Other Thoughts:

The Oklahoma State offense is one of the best I can remember watching, but I think they slip against Oklahoma next week leaving the door wide open for a 1 loss team to slip into the National Championship

TCU currently is a 33 point favorite over Colorado State. This is an interesting line because I think TCU may have a let down after their win against Boise State. I am absolutely not picking an upset in this game, but I think the underdog would be a good bet getting 33 in this game.

Vanderbilt heads to Knoxville this weekend for a game against Tennessee. If Vandy wins they become bowl eligible and keep UT out of the post season. Before the year that is something I would have never predicted, but it is a testament as to how well Vandy has played this year. Vandy is a 1.5 point favorite. This would be a huge win for Vanderbilt football.

The champion of the SEC East will be decided this weekend when Georgia takes down Kentucky at home. The hardest two games were the first two of the year for Georgia. The 8 game win streak they currently have is credited as much to their schedule as their play. This team won't really be tested again until the SEC Championship game.

The Heisman race at this point in the year is as wide open as I have ever seen it. Andrew Luck was a clear front runner until their loss to Oregon. I would still classify him as the leader, but if Brandon Weeden from OK State continues to rip defenses apart he may win it. Trent Richardson and Case Keenum also have strong arguments. No matter who is the leader right now the last few weeks of the season are going to decide the winner. Someone needs to step up and have their Heisman moment.

Shifting directions a little toward the NBA because the situation they are in right now deserves to be talked about. I am probably one of the few people you will hear that is a fan of the NBA. I am really not sure if I just like the NBA because I like all sports, but this professional organization provides a quality product especially in the playoffs. It is a shame they are in the situation they currently are in because there will be a lot of people hurt financially if they do not play a game. The players and owners are the least of my worries. When I talk about people being hurt financially I am talking about the taxi drivers, the bars/restaurants around the arenas, the hotels, the merchant vendors, the security companies, the concession vendors, the employees of the organizations, etc., etc. These are the people who really hurt during a lockout. A full season lockout will have an economic impact in the billions.

This won't be my only blog post this week. I will be posting a blog on Friday. As always thanks for reading and please continue to send your thoughts and comments.

Wally

Week 10 Analysis/Week 11 Preview

I am going to start this post by saying some crazy things have happened in college football since Sunday. I will get into the Ole Miss coaching situation a little later, so I will start with the whole situation going on at Penn State. I scanned the federal indictment as much as I could tolerate. I won't get into details because it is pretty disturbing to say the least. This Sandusky character is guilty. If you read the indictment they have proof of him commiting crimes against kids from 1994 to 2009. The indictment says 8 kids were singled out in the investigation. I would speculate he probably commited crimes against another 20 or 30 kids that aren't going to come forward because of how embarassing something like this would be. This guy used an organization that assisted under priveledged kids to help him fulfill his twisted desire to commit heinous crimes against children. The NCAA does not have the backbone or the authority to really do anything to Penn State on this, so the US goverment must drop the hammer on EVERYONE. Joe Paterno is saying he will finish the year out. The conspiracy theorist in me is saying he is coaching the rest of the year so he can set the record for the most games ever coached. He currently is tied for first. If JoePa is allowed to coach to break a record then sports have lost touch with reality. Sports and especially records are not more important than the safety of children. This should not be tolerated in America.

Not sure how to transition from the prior paragraph to USM, so I am just going to jump right into a much more pleasant topic to talk about. If USM can keep their focus they will finish the season with only 1 loss. They are significantly more talented than the remaining three teams on their schedule. UCF comes to Hattiesburg this weekend as arguably the best team remaining on the schedule. USM is a 9 point favorite in a 7PM game that is being televised on CBS Sports Network. I look for USM to come out focused and up for this game. The Rock should be a good home atmosphere. USM wins this game by 2+ touchdowns.

If you are reading this then you are well aware of the situation in Oxford. Pete Boone has announce he will be stepping down sometime in 2012 with Houston Nutt being fired at the end of the year. Having a coach finish the year out after being told he will be fired is not a common thing. Nutt has pledged that he will give Ole Miss just as much effort in coaching the remaining games as he has up to this point. I think Nutt is saying/doing this because he feels guilty about the 6 million dollar buyout Ole Miss owes him on top of his current salary. Las Vegas doesn't think Houston Nutt will be prepared. Line for this game came out at Ole Miss -1. Since it was announced that he was being fired the line has moved to La Tech -2. Ms State will quickly tell you La Tech is not a bad team. I would be surprised to see Ole Miss come out of this game with a win. The Rebels will probably start the game off good like they have because the players will rally around the lame duck coach, but once the momentum wears off I think La Tech will slowly take over the game.

Good news for Ms State this week is that they have won 2 games in a row against far inferior opponents. These two games were paired with a bye week allowing the Bulldogs to get some guys healthy. Only person missing is Tobias Smith who is out for the season. This will be the best team MS State has put on the field since their game against Auburn. Other good news for MS State is that Bama comes into this weekend with some major contributors hurting. All that being said I still can't predict MS State keeping this game close. Line on this is between 17 and 18. Bama has a lot better chance of covering the spread than MS State has to win. However, if the Bulldogs get a few breaks and play a solid game anything could happen. College football week in and week out proves to us how unpredictable it is.

Other thoughts for the week:

Oregon vs Stanford this week is a good game to keep an eye on. If Stanford can get a win in this game they will have a smooth road to the National Championship. Stanford is undefeated this year against the spread which is an unbelievable stat, but this is the best team they have faced up to this point. It is hard to pick against Stanford, but I am going to say they get taken down this week by Oregon. In the end I just feel like Oregon has too much speed and athletic ability for Stanford. Line on this game currently has Stanford as a -3.5 to -4 point favorite. As I said above I like Oregon straight up in this one.


Vanderbilt is a 13 point favorite over Kentucky. No one would have predicted this line at the start of the year. Vandy is have a great year. Kentucky is having an equally bad year. This week I have Kentucky as the 11th ranked team in the SEC. Their win over Ole Miss caused the two teams to switch spots. Ole Miss has a firm hold of last in the SEC.

Georgia is a 13 point favorite over Auburn. Georgia rolls into this game with a 7 game winning streak. During that time they are 6 and 1 against the spread. I think Georgia continues their track to the SEC Championship game with a convincing win over Auburn.

In my opinion the LSU/BAMA game lived up to the hype. It was not a flashy game with each team scoring 30-40 points. It was exactly the game that statistics predicted. I am not going to get into the whether or not we should have a rematch argument or not yet. We need to let the season play out then decide that.

Thanks for reading. Please continue to email or message me comments.

Wally

LSU/BAMA

If you are reading this post then you are well aware of what is going on this weekend in Tuscaloosa. The ESPN hype machine is out in full on this game. ESPN is such a powerful media source that once they start on a subject, topic, game, etc. there is no stopping it. I can only speak for what has happened in my life time, so games that happened in the 60s and 70s are really irrelevant to me. With that being said the interest surrounding this game is larger than any regular season football game I have ever seen. Much of the credit for that should be given to ESPN.

Before I go into anything else let me say I have major respect for these two football programs. Nick Saban in my opinion is the best coach in college football. I have always thought Les Miles was not all there, but the man never loses. Whatever he does works and that deserves my respect. The goal for these two programs every year is to win a national championship. A lot of places say that is a goal for them but at these two universities anything less is a failure. They are the absolute best there is right now, and collectively there may be more talent on the field Saturday than there ever has been in a college football game.

When I look at a college football player one of the first questions I ask is if the guy can play in the NFL. If so what kind of contributor do I believe he can be in the NFL. The NFL picks the best of the best and if you are a potential NFL player you have the skills, size, strength, intelligence, etc. to just dominate at the college level. The two teams that will take the field Saturday are loaded with future NFL players. There are NFL players on each offensive line, at receiver, at running back, and even at quarterback. However, the real talent is on defense. Both of these teams have at least 2 players at every level that will play in the NFL. What I mean by every level is defensive line, linebackers, and secondary. I will never say a college football team can beat a NFL team because they can't, but these two defenses could compete against a below average pro offense.

Stats don't lie this time of year. Heading into November your team is what the stats say you are. By this point in the season every team has played enough good and/or bad opponents for the stats to begin to level out. On paper these two teams are as good as there is. Each of these teams are in the top 5 of all major defensive categories. Just getting a first down against these two defenses is hard. The defenses for these teams are so unbelievable that the offenses get completely overlooked. LSU and Bama have very good offenses. Bama currently ranks 11th in scoring and LSU is 14th. Both offenses are very balanced and they have playmakers at Wide Receiver, TE, and especially Running Back.

How does one predict a winner for this game? That is the million dollar question this week because these two teams are pretty much flawless up to this point in the year. Vegas has the line for this game at 4.5 to 5. The points are being given to BAMA mainly because they are playing at home. The keys for me like in all games are field position and turnovers. I see this being a game where each team scores between 13 and 21 points. At the end of the day whichever teams super star playmaker makes the big play wins the game. I think LSU has a couple of more guys that produce those big plays and win this game 20-17.

It is hard to believe it has already been a year, but this weekend is mine and Stephanies 1 year anniversary. We will be in New Orleans Sat and Sun. In my opinion one of the best places to watch this game besides at the game will be in the French Quarter. Only problem to that is if LSU loses you better hide because there will be some crazy LSU fans roaming. Either way I hope all of you have a good weekend and thank you Stephanie for a great year. Enjoy the game and thank you for reading.

Wally

Week 9 Analysis/Week 10 Preview

I will be posting a full blog on Friday about the LSU/BAMA game, so I will not be talking about it much in this post. It will be a good read.

This was another weekend of top teams having close games. Clemson's loss to Georgia Tech eliminated them from the National Championship hunt. Stanford pulled out a nail bitter in triple overtime against a scrappy USC team. I don't believe Stanford and OK State will finish the season undefeated. I see Stanford losing to Oregon and OK State losing to Oklahoma. If both of those two things happen then it will be a mad dash for everyone to get into the National Championship game. The BCS standings are really showing their respect for the SEC. SEC currently has 4 teams in the top 10 of the BCS.

USM has broken into the BCS Top 25. The Golden Eagles enter November with 1 loss. USM should be a favorite in their remaining 4 games. Can USM finish the season with only 1 loss and play for the CUSA championship against Houston?? I think they will. An exciting question has been posed to me by several people over the last couple of weeks. If Houston wins out and goes undefeated they will get invited to a bowl game larger than the Liberty Bowl. This will leave the door open for the #2 CUSA team (USM) to get invited to Memphis to play one of the lower SEC teams (MSU). Many things have to fall into place for this to happen, but with a month left in the season there is a possibility of a MSU/USM Liberty Bowl. That would spark some serious interest within the state of Mississippi.

Ole Miss played another good 1st half of football. Only problem with that is they played another equally bad 2nd half of football. In my time both being around and playing football I learned that the most coaching is done at halftime. Teams that consistently win have coaches that make adjustments at halftime that allow them to come out in the second half and execute. What I am saying is that Houston Nutt has absolutely been out coached the last three weeks by Saban, Petrino, and Chizik. The third quarter for Ole Miss has been brutal the last 3 weeks. The Rebels have been out scored 61-0 in the 3rd quarter. Good news this week for Ole Miss is that they play Kentucky. I have Kentucky as the worst team in the SEC. Las Vegas has Ole Miss as a 1 point favorite. Value index shows Kentucky should be a 2.5 point favorite. Question of the week?? Can the Rebels get their first SEC win of the year in Lexington? I think they will get their last win of the year this weekend.

Mississippi State did exactly what they needed to do this past weekend... go to Kentucky and find a way to win. The offense for MS State continues to drive me crazy with mistakes. The Bulldogs should have won this game by 4 touchdowns. State committed 3 turnovers. You will not consistently win in the SEC doing that. As I predicted last week the defense kept the Bulldogs head above water. Two fumbles were inside the MSU 25 yard line. The defense stepped up and held UK to field goals. Even with all the negative during the game State got the W. This week the Bulldogs will get another W against a team that should not even be able to step foot on the same field. MSU will blast UT-Martin this weekend with an offense that will look more like what we expected to see this year. Maybe a game like this will get the train back on the tracks... too bad Bama will be knocking that train back off the tracks next week.

Other Thoughts:

The game of the century is completely overshadowing another great football game this weekend. South Carolina goes to Arkansas this weekend for a match up between 2 top 10 BCS teams. No one has talked about this game because of the LSU/BAMA game. Line on this game is currently Arkansas -5.

You will need to read my blog post Friday about LSU/BAMA to see my prediction on that game. I have a pretty strong opinion about one team in this game. The line currently sits at BAMA -5. I think this is a favorite Vegas line for home teams in the SEC in an evenly matched game.

The Houston/UAB line opened at 24, but it quickly jumped to 27.5-28. If you are able to get this line at anything under 28 get on it hard!

Kansas State is going to complete a fall much like Florida did earlier in the season. They entered the top 10 just in time to face two superior opponents. Oklahoma bounced back against KSU last week with a blow out. Line on this game currently sits at 21. Oklahoma State just has too much offense for KSU to keep this one close.

Tony LaRussa retired only a few days after winning the World Series. LaRussa has either coached or played baseball for 48 years. He went out on top of the baseball world! Everyone should respect that.

Thank you for reading and I hope everyone enjoys the weekend. Please continue to send me comments/ideas/suggestions/etc.

Wally

Week 8 Analysis/Week 9 Preview

Oklahoma and Wisconsin both lost their chance of a National Championship this past weekend with losses. Wisconsin lost to a quality opponent on a last second play, but it is still a loss. The loss for Oklahoma was inexcusable. They lost to a signficantly inferior opponent at home. College football is anything but predictable which was proven this past weekend. That is one of the things that makes it so great. At the end of the year there will be 3 or 4 unbeaten teams meaning it will be hard for a 1 loss non SEC school to get a chance at the title. The SEC will have an unbeaten this year, but even if it didn't they would still deserve a shot to defend the title. I believe the only way a SEC school doesn't win the championship is if there isn't a team playing for it.

SMTTT..... I have always thought this was kind of a stupid slogan, but right now Southern Miss is rising to the top. USM fans don't bash me with hate mail about knocking your slogan. I am a MSU fan and I think the Maroon/White chant MSU does is beyond stupid. With all that being said USM deserves their top 25 ranking this week. They are top 25 in scoring offense and defense. I realize that the strength of schedule for USM is much higher than that of MSU/Ole Miss. As of today USM has the 77th ranked SOS, MSU #32, and Ole Miss is a brutal #10. What I say to that is who cares... You still have to win games and USM has done that. Southern Miss travels to UTEP this weekend as a 10 point favorite. USM has to find some way to not fall into a trap this game. If USM gets up for the game they will win by 3 touchdowns. If they come out flat they could be coming back to MS with a bad loss.

Heartbreak losses like Ole Miss experienced Saturday in Oxford are really bad for the immediate season but pretty good for growth into the future. Too bad Houston Nutt won't be a part of that future. The Rebels have some serious young talent at WR. The guys Ole Miss have at receiver are future NFL players. They are the kind of people that can win games for the Rebels in the next couple of years. The good news for Ole Miss this week is that the talent level of the team they are playing is significantly downgraded. Rebels are a 10.5 point underdog on the Plains this weekend. I have a prediction that Ole Miss only wins 1 more game this year, so I obviously don't see them winning at Auburn Saturday night.

The Forward Rebels movement is gaining more and more steam with every Ole Miss loss. Their mission to get Pete Boone and Chancellor Jones fired does not appear to be dying down anytime soon. I will say the same thing I have always said about this. Those two guys have never called a single play at any sporting event for Ole Miss. However, after talking to many Ole Miss fans whose opinions I respect I feel like a change from top to bottom may be necessary in Oxford. The most shocking thing to me about the actions this week was how well written the letter from Jerrell Powe was. Everything from the format to the spelling was flawless. I truthfully don't believe he wrote that letter, and I know many other people are thinking the same thing whether they admit it or not.

The bye week for MS State could not have come at a better time in the year. The Bulldogs needed the week off to get healthy and to try to work out some of the problems on offense. Ms State has a two game stretch that are must win games. I bashed the Ms State offense last week, and if I started talking about them this week it would be much of the same. Since that is the case I am going to focus on the defense. This Ms State defense has quietly become a pretty good unit. They currently rank 17th in the nation in points per game. Kentucky comes into this game with one of the worst offenses in the nation (116th in scoring and 118th in total yards). This is all good news for a desperate Ms State team. I look for the MS State defense to control the game Saturday. Bulldogs will get a win in a game that probably won't be pretty to watch.

Several Other Notes:
I will be doing a full blog next week on the LSU/Bama game. Espn has already said they are arriving in Tuscaloosa on Thursday to start coverage. CBS has moved the game to Saturday night. This game is basically the National Championship. I hope it lives up to the hype.

Interesting thing for this weekend is that all three spreads for the MS teams are right around 10. USM/MSU favorites/Ole Miss underdog

I am officially on the Stanford Cardinal bandwagon. They are not only undefeated, but they are undefeated against the spread. That is impressive.

I was happy to see Notre Dame lose again. Maybe now they will finally stop talking about them going to a BCS game.

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail party is this weekend. If Brantley can't play then the Gators have no shot. I don't see the Gators winning this game even if he comes back because they will not be back to normal with him being off for a few weeks. UGA wins this game and sets themself up with a chance to come in the back door for the SEC East championship. This game doesn't have a line because Vegas is waiting to see about Brantley. My line is without Brantley UGA -10 and with Brantley UGA -2.5.

I hope everyone has a great weekend! Thank you all for reading. Please continue to email me your thoughts because I enjoy reading them even if you disagree with me.

Wally

Week 7 Analysis/Week 8 Preview

The first BCS rankings of the year came out this week. The top 3 are in line with how I would put them(LSU/Bama/Oklahoma). Once you get past the top 3 you could really draw out of a hat for the next 4 or 5 spots. At this point in the season I agree with the poll having LSU at #1. Both Bama and LSU have looked impressive, but the Tigers have just played a tougher schedule up to this point than Bama. The great thing about this is that the rankings really don't matter because Bama and LSU play each other. Everything will be solved on the field instead of by some pencil pushing sports writers.

As I said last week USM has their biggest game of the year this Saturday against SMU, 7PM on CBS Sports Network. The Golden Eagles came out as 3.5 point favorite in this game. The line currently sits at 3. I don't see this line moving much if any between now and the game. This will be USM's toughest challenge yet. SMU comes into this game at 5-1 with their only loss to Texas A&M the first game of the year. SMU can score points (33rd in nation) and keep their opponents from scoring (23rd in nation). USM is pretty good statistically on both sides of the ball too, Offense (19th) and Defense (38th). Stats are a good indicator of what kind of team you have at this point in the year because every team has played enough games to get a good average. Stats show this being a close game. I'm saying this will be one of the best games of the weekend. If you are a USM fan then GO, but if you are a football fan you should at least watch this game. See what the current best team in MS has to offer.

Things for Ole Miss have gone from bad to worse to terrible. The bad for the Rebels this week, they got hit pretty hard by injuries against Bama. Two starting defensive players were lost for the season from a unit that is already thin at many positions. The worse for the Rebels this week, is that they are pitiful on offense. The Rebels can not run or pass which is shown by them being ranked 117th nationally in total offense. The terrible for the Rebels this week, they play another really good opponent. Arkansas is not Bama, but they are a legitimate top 10 team. Line for this quickly jumped 2.5 points to 17 when it came out. The line currently sits at 16.5. This is a good bet even up to 21. Arkansas will score in the 40s, and I don't see how the Rebels can get to 20 points unless something crazy happens. The Rebels may not get to 4 wins this year. Rebels needs to start figuring out where they are going to get the 6 million+ it will take to fire the staff in Oxford

The only positive for Ole Miss fans right now is that the situation in Starkville is far from good. Every person in the stadium Saturday knew that South Carolina was going to throw the ball to Alshon Jeffery on their last TD. Banks should be covering Jeffery in that situation with help. I see negative after negative on offense when I watch MS State play. The center snaps the ball back to the quaterback in shotgun like a high school center. The ball wabbles back to the qb and half the time it is off target. This is the SEC and that is not acceptable. The center did not even have anyone lined up on him so that excuse is out. The snap should be a spiral quickly back to the qb right in his chest. Many of MSU's plays out of shotgun are timing plays and the pathetic snaps throw everything off. I can't imagine how bad the snaps will be when Bama has someone lined up in the A gap. Bad snaps lead to my next statement about the offense. Ms State had at least 8 wasted plays on offense Saturday. When I say wasted I mean plays that have a fumble/bad snap, a player running the wrong route/direction, etc. Every play is precious and you can't have 10-15% of them wasted. Good news for MSU is that they have an off week followed by games against two opponents that they SHOULD beat. Defense is playing really solid football right now, but the offense has some major problems. The Bulldogs have got to get better on offense in the off week.

A Few notes:

I currently believe USM has the best football team in MS.

Realignment has taken a weird turn.. Boise State going to the Big East?? That makes no sense at all.

The Wisconsin/Mich State game should be a good game, if there is such a thing in the Big 10 anymore. Wisconsin has a high powered offense and Mich State has a top 5 defense. Something has to give in this game. I think it is the Mich State defense.

TCU is a 41 point favorite. I like TCU as a football team/program, but New Mexico must be terrible to get a line this high. A 40+ point spread at this point in the year is typically a good underdog bet.

The World Series starts tonight on Fox. MLB has lost some of its luster in the last few years for several reasons... Extremely long seasons, public knowledge of scandals involving HGH/steroids, and the rise of football popularity to a level no one has seen before. With all that being said both college and pro baseball are providing a quality product on the field right now. Sit down for a little while during this series and watch a little baseball. You won't be disappointed. My pick is for the Rangers to win in 6 games.

Thanks for reading. Please continue to email me any comments or suggestions. I enjoy reading what other people think Wally146@aol.com

Wally

Week 6 Analysis/Week 7 Preview

First thing I want to talk about is how ridiculous top 25 polls are. Florida currently sits outside of the top 25 at around 26 or 27. Florida lost to the best two teams in the country the previous two weeks. They went from being ranked 12th to 26th after losing to the Number 1A and 1B teams in the nation. My argument isn't whether Florida should or shouldn't be ranked. My argument is that if these sports writers felt like Florida was the 12th best team in the nation two weeks ago then how does losing to Bama and LSU make them think they are now the 26th best team. Another note about the top 25 is Michigan is ranked 10th or 11th depending on which poll you look at. This is a joke. Michigan has played no body (Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and ND. I predict it right now... Michigan will have a 9-10 win season. They will then go to a bowl game and play an SEC team that will smash them.

Southern Miss is rolling. I feel like the current bye week comes at a bad time for the Golden Eagles. Bye weeks are tricky situations. When a team is playing good ball a bye week can be a step back. However, if a team is struggling with consistency and injuries a bye week can be a positive. USM does have some players injured, but every team has that this time of year. This week needs to be used to get some fundamentals fixed and some players healthy. Next week USM has a huge game against SMU. SMU is back on the map. The death penalty they received from the NCAA in the mid 80s took them 20+ years to recover from. The biggest game of the year for USM is next Saturday. If you claim to be a USM fan you should go to Hattiesburg and support your team for this game.

Saying Ole Miss has a tough game this week is an understatement. They are basically playing a NFL team in Oxford on Saturday(5PM CT ESPN2). Ole Miss has absolutely no chance in this game. The Alabama defense enters this game only giving up an average of 7 points a game and 37.7 rushing yards. Both of those stats are ranked number 1 in the nation by a long shot. Ole Miss enters the game with the 99th ranked rushing offense at 115.6 yards per game. The Rebels will not be able to get anything going on the ground making them one dimensional on offense. The Bama defense will produce 3+ turnovers and blow the Rebels out. Spread on this game currently sits at Bama -25. Take this bet, because this could be a 5 touchdown game. I don't mean any disrespect to Ole Miss by the above comments. The simple fact is that Bama is just that good.

South Caroline comes to Starkville this weekend for an early kick (11AM CT SEC Network - CBS local). Every game for the remainder of the season is important for MS State because wins become precious this time of year. The early season thoughts of a potential 8 win season are long gone. Bulldogs need to figure out some way to get 3 more wins. It does not matter who they are against. There is potential in the schedule for this to happen, but it will take MSU playing better football. Last week proved there is a quarterback controversy in Starkville. Relf or Russell? Someone that makes a lot more money than I do has to make that decision. MSU may not have won Saturday if it were not for the change at quarterback. This has been a weird year for both MSU and USC. Each of these teams had high expectations for their offenses, but the defenses for both teams has been the better unit up to this point in the season. Spread for this game opened at USC -5. It currently sits at 3 points. I like the Gamecocks in this game at -3, but I will be happy if the Bulldogs pull out a victory.

Few extra comments:

In the way too early to look at category... Bama is a 6.5 point favorite over LSU for their game Nov 5th.

Oklahoma State came out as a 5.5 point favorite over Texas. This line is currently between 7 and 8. I really liked this line at 5.5 - 7. Over 7 makes this a little tougher to say I really like. However I think this is a good bet even if the line gets up around 10. This line is under 10 simply because it is Texas.

Highest line for the weekend is Oklahoma -34 against Kansas. I enjoy looking at the highest line every weekend because typically it is a good underdog bet. This would not be a good underdog bet. Oklahoma will hang 50+ on Kansas.

As always I appreciate you reading this. Email me any thoughts, comments, or ideas because I enjoy hearing people's responses... Wally146@aol.com

Wally

Week 5 Analysis/Week 6 Preview

The thing that once again stood out this past weekend was how dominant Alabama was. The Bama defense knocked out John Brantley a week after they made Bobby Petrino pull Tyler Wilson out of the game because he feared he would get hurt. This Alabama defense has at least 8 players that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft om 2012. They have many others that will be drafted in 2013, 2014, etc.

Southern Miss got a good conference win this past weekend over Rice. I predicted USM would win this game and cover the spread. They did both. USM is 4-1 heading to Annapolis this weekend to take on Navy. Navy poses a real problem with their triple option. It is extremely hard to prepare for this type of offense in one week. The defensive players for USM have to be disciplined. Vegas has the Navy as a 2.5 point favorite. Navy has lost a close game the last two weeks. I think Navy loses another close game this weekend to USM.

Ole Miss traveled to the west coast this past weekend and got a win. Fresno State played a below average game and Ole Miss had some young guys make big plays. I expect big things out of Donte Moncrief in the future. He is a freshman, but he has NFL caliber skills. The Rebels have a much needed bye week this weekend. After this bye weekend they play Bama and Arkansas at home back to back. Those will be tough games for the Rebels. Enjoy the week off to get healthy because Ole Miss will not be healthy after they play Alabama.

Once again I have to write about MSU after a bad week. Good news for State fans is that UAB is awful. Ms State will win against UAB, but that does not say much. The 3 wins for the Bulldogs this year will be against teams with 2 wins, both came against non FBS schools. The Bulldogs have had injuries on the offensive line which have led to the lack offensive production. The offensive line was something I worried about heading into the year. The line on this game is MS State -17.5 points. Bulldogs need to get some rhythm on offense and put up some points. Whether they cover or not, a win is a win. No one remembers who teams beat at the end of the year. They only remember the record. 4 of the 6 remaining games are at home, which will help the Bulldogs get to a bowl game. Why a SEC team starts the season off with 4 of 6 games on the road does not make any sense to me. That is a credit to the Templeton administration and their stellar scheduling.

My game to watch this weekend is the Red River Rivalry (OU/Texas). This game is played at the Texas State fair every year. This is a tradition I really appreciate. If the Big 12 goes under and these two teams separate conferences. I hope the big wigs keep this tradition alive. Who doesn't like eating double fried twinkies dipped in chocolate while watching football?? Line on this game is OU -10.5 points. OU wins this game, but they don't cover the spread. The hook is the difference maker in the spread for this game.

Few Notes:
LSU manhandles Florida without Brantley at quarterback.

USM/Navy should be a good football game. Key to this game-- Can USM play disciplined football against the misdirection of the triple option. If USM does that they will be successful in this game.

Arizona State/Utah is an interesting match up in the Pac-12 south for me this weekend. This is a trap game for the undefeated Sun Devils because they play Oregon on the road next weekend. If ASU can get a win this weekend they will be in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 south regular season title. ASU has the best uniforms in college football.



Sorry the blog has been a little late the past couple of weeks. I have been over at my hunting camp a lot trying to get everything repaired from the flood. I anticipate on having my blog posts back on Thursdays starting next week. As always email me any thoughts, ideas, comments, etc. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading!! Have a great weekend.

Wally

Week 4 Analysis/Week 5 preview

I told all of you about LSU @ Alabama on November 5th. If you have not watched either of these teams play then you are probably not reading this and you are probably irrelevant. You need to be close to a TV when these two teams play. It will start around 2:30 on CBS and it will be worth your 3-4 hours. Both of these teams will be undefeated when they play. Florida has a great team this year, but they will lose the next two weeks to Bama and LSU.

USM went up to Virginia and did exactly what I said they needed to do last week... took at win. They play Rice this weekend at home. Rice in baseball is scary. However, this is football and they are not good. USM is a 15+/- point favorite. I say USM covers the spread with an easy win. USM rolls to 4 and 1 with a win this weekend. 3 wins in a row is a winning streak! SMTTT! HUGE game next week at Navy.

Glad I led this off the with the good news about USM because I have very little about MS State and Ole Miss. I will start with Ole Miss. Major problems are surfacing in Oxford. This Forward Rebels BS has gone to a new level. The entire situation is not good. Ole Miss has not been a unified body since I have been alive. Whatever happened before that I can not speak about because I really don't know or care. Whatever idiot is heading up this Forward Rebels Forward movement probably had something to do with the Black Bear shenanigans. The Ole Miss football team needs to put all the outside criticism aside, go to the west coast this weekend, and play a solid SEC football game. Ole Miss has better talent than Fresno State, but the Rebels have had trouble with BULLDOGS lately.

My first reaction to the MS State/La Tech game is a win is a win. I did not personally watch or listen to this game because I was gator hunting, but I did record it. I am better at watching film than writing. After watching the replay, this was a sloppy football game. For all of you State fans... I will say it again. A WIN IS A WIN. No one will remember the overtime game against La Tech when we are in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. The Bulldogs travel to UGA this weekend to play a game that is pretty big for both teams. MSU beat UGA last year at home in a game the Georgia Bulldogs should have won. Line on this game is 7+/- with UGA as the favorite. Both teams have played early games, so the bloody mary kickoff (11 AM CT) really has no impact. Value index shows Georgia should be a 19 point favorite. The gambler in me says take Georgia -7.

No picks for me this weekend besides the ones above! There will be some quality games though.

Opening weekend 0 for 3 on picks (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
3rd weekend 1 for 2 (Won Bama/Lost Houston)
4th weekend 2 for 3 (Lost Notre Dame and won Georgia and LSU)
Season: 5 for 10 which is 50%
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 2 for 4
3 Star 2 for 5

I hope everyone has a great weekend! Email me any thoughts or ideas. Thanks.

Wally

Pro Football Players

Every once in a while I hear people talking or see an article about the average male playing pro football. The thing I most recently saw was a survey in which over 50% of males said they could get a 3 yard run in the NFL. The people who answered yes to this have no clue. You could not even get a -3 yard gain in the NFL much less a positive gain.

The guys you watch on Sundays are the absolute most physically talent human beings on the planet. They are bigger, stronger, and faster than anyone you have ever met in your life. In the NFL you have 300lb men who can stand and do a backflip. A NFL cornerback could play any sport in the world and be successful at it. NFL players are regular winners on Dancing with the Stars and other reality shows because of their rare size and skills.

NFL players are not "dumb jocks" either. The guys who contribute significant time are well above average when it comes to IQ and Wonderlic scores. Both offenses and defenses in pro football are extremely in depth. They require players and coaches to devote 50+ hours a week of preparation for a 3 hour game.

There's a little over 1,000,000 males that play high school football with about a quarter of that being seniors. Between all the teams in division 1 football you have 10,080 total scholarships. Many of those are occupied by sophs, juniors, etc. You have around 2,500 scholarships available every year for incoming freshmen. That means around 1% of high school football playes will go play football at the division 1 level. Keep in mind that some people know they aren't going to play football after high school, but stats show between 55 and 65% of high school football players believe they can play college football.

The odds of going from college to pro are pretty small too. You will have roughly 3,000 people available for the NFL draft every year because you do not have to be a senior to declare. The NFL draft is 7 rounds of 32 picks totalling 224. If you play college football and apply for the draft you have a 7.5% chance of getting drafted. Yes there are some free agency players that make it and some people drafted get cut. The number of new players in the league every year is around 200. Summary to the above two paragraphs is that only .08% of high school football players will play in the NFl.

The NFL is the most competitive organization in the world. If you do not perform you are out. The pressure put on coaches and players by front office executives, fans, and media is at an all time high. The pressure to perform is providing us fans with quality entertainment. If you are reading this you could not get a 3 yard run in the NFL. You would not get back to the line of scrimmage and you would probably be hurt after the play.

My week four analysis will be posted sometime on Thursday with weekend picks being posted on Friday.

Thanks for reading... As always, email me if you have thoughts, ideas, or comments Wally146@aol.com

Week 4 Picks

Notre Dame -6.5 Four Star Pick

First off let me tell you how happy it makes me that Notre Dame lost their first two games the way they did. Especially the one against Michigan on a last second td pass.

Couple of things to note.. First: Vegas loves elevating the line for Notre Dame because they know the amount of money that is going to be bet on them every week. Notre Dame is consistently bet on as much as any other team in the country. This is not the case with this line. This line should be up above 10 according to many value indexes. Second: Notre Dame should be undefeated right now. I am glad they aren't because some idiot (Lou Holtz) would probably have them in the top 10, and all we would hear about his how Notre Dame is back.

Putting my dislike for Notre Dame aside... this is a great bet for the weekend.




Georgia -9.5 or -10 Three Star Pick

Luckily for Ole Miss fans I have been terrible with my three star picks this year. I obviously like this pick more at -9.5 instead of -10, but many sites are showing it has gone to -10. As I mentioned earlier in the week, this game features two coaches on the hottest two coaching seats in the SEC.

On an ideal football team all the major components help make each other better. Ole Miss is a prime example of this so far this year. The Rebel defense has played pretty good football, but the lack of help from the offense has killed them. A good offense is the best thing for a defense. Against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss had 8 out of 14 total drives last 3 or less plays. That means the defense had to go right back out on the field with very little rest. I can't even get into all the problems that are wrong with the offense, but as far as the Rebel defense goes, their main problem is the lack of offensive production. If you look at the LSU/MSU game there was a similar situation. The defense played good, but the offense could not get anything going. With the lack of offense the defense was constantly on the field.

Georgia will score 35+ points in this game.. I just don't see Ole Miss getting offensive production anywhere close to that. I like Georgia by 2 touchdowns.



Louisiana State -5.5 Three Star Pick

Why do I think this is a good pick? Because LSU is stupid good. I am aware that I have picked 3 road team favorites this week. That is probably a first for me. This LSU road game is not going to make any difference to them because all they have done this year is play on the road. LSU covers 5.5 points.

Opening weekend 0 for 3 on picks (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
3rd weekend 1 for 2 (Won Bama/Lost Houston)
Season: 3 for 7 which is still under 50%. I have been terrible with 3 star picks.
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 2 for 3
3 Star 0 for 3

Below are my college pick'ems for Saturday, September 24, 2011. I am in the 93 percentile so far for the year. I was never able to do that on any type of achievement tests. My picks are in bold.

3:30PM
Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) at
3 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
10 points

3:30PM
Colorado Buffaloes (1-2) at
Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1)
9 points

10:15PM
Oregon Ducks (2-1) at
Arizona Wildcats (1-2)
8 points

8:00PM
LSU Tigers (3-0) at
16 West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0)
7 points

12:00PM
San Diego State Aztecs (3-0) at
22 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
6 points

12:00PM
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2) at
Pittsburgh Panthers (2-1)
5 points

12:00PM
North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0) at
25 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0)
4 points

10:15PM
USC Trojans (3-0) at
Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1)
3 points

3:30PM
Florida State Seminoles (2-1) at
21 Clemson Tigers (3-0)
2 points

3:30PM
Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) at
8 Texas A&M Aggies (2-0)
1 point

Tiebreaker LSU Tigers: 31 West Virginia: 17

Please email me any comments, thoughts, or ideas.. I am interested in hearing other people's opinion. Wally146@aol.com Thanks for reading! Enjoy the weather and have a great weekend.

Wally

Week Three College Football

This is going to be an interesting week to talk about for many reasons. Reason #1: Football season is now in full swing. Most teams have already played 1 or 2 conference games and if they have not they enter conference play this weekend. Reason #2: Conference expansion/realignment is also in full swing. It appears we are quickly headed toward 4 major 16 team conferences. The power players in this whole process are the SEC and Texas/OU because of the money. This whole process is being caused by money and greed. Reason #3: Last but not least the drama with the two major schools in the State of MS is at an all time high. I will get more into this later.

Put this date on your calendar…. November 5th. LSU plays at Alabama. This will probably be one of the best regular season college football games in a long time. The winner of this game probably wins the National Championship. It is unbelievable how good the defenses are for these two teams.

Southern Miss travels to Virginia this week for a game that will tell a lot about where their season will go. USM bounced back last week against an inferior opponent in Southeastern Louisiana. Prior to the season I had USM as a favorite going into this game against Virginia. Virginia has proved to be slightly better than I thought they would while USM has not lived up to my expectations through 3 weeks. Las Vegas has USM as a 3 point underdog in this game. Southern Miss needs to go up to Virginia, put all the pieces together, and take a win.

Not a good start to the season by both Ole Miss and MS State. I will first talk about the Rebels. The opening game loss to BYU is looking worse and worse the more games they play. BYU got dominated by Utah. I had some optimism for Ole Miss following that game, but I obviously over estimated BYU this season. Moving forward…A 30-7 loss against Vanderbilt is not acceptable. The bad part about it is that the game was worse for the Rebels than the score which was bad. The Houston Nutt quarterback carousel has once re-emerged. I have no idea what Nutt does to these quarterbacks, but he manages to completely destroy them mentally. Georgia comes into Oxford on Saturday as a 9.5 point favorite. This game features coaches on the two hottest seats in the SEC. A win could change everything for Ole Miss, but at this point I cannot see that happening. I hate to say it, but you heard it here first… Georgia in a blow out Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Lots of problems in Oxford from top to bottom… If Nutt does not figure out some way to rally the troops he may not make it through the season.

The start to the 2011 football season has not gone as anticipated for Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs. The first thing I am going to say is that I do believe MS State has a good football team, coaching staff, and administration. The talent in Starkville has been significantly upgraded the last couple of years. I do not doubt Dan Mullen as a coach because his tract record proves he is a winner. With all that being said, at some point Dan Mullen has got to put his money where his mouth is. If everything was not so bad in Oxford this year many more people would be talking about Dan Mullen's lack of production against top teams. Mullen is flying under the radar because of all the drama at Ole Miss. The good news for Dan Mullen going forward is that the schedule doesn't get harder. The bulldogs won't see a defense comparable to LSU until they meet up with Alabama. Just like with Houston Nutt, Dan Mullen needs to find a way to string together a few wins starting with a solid performance against La Tech this Saturday.

One other thing: I do not agree with the way the Forward Rebels movement is going about their business. The ad placed in the paper was a reaction based on feelings. When you are going to do something as significant as they did you need to step back for a few days and take the emotion out of it. If I wrote my blog the same day or the day after USM/Ole Miss/MS State played it would be much different than it is in the middle of the week because I would bring emotions into it. Sometimes you have to step back for a few days and calm down. After a few days you will probably realize you were the one that was out of line. All things considered, I am in no position to tell you whether the Ole Miss administration is doing a good job or not. One thing I do know is that Dan Jones did not call a single football play against Vanderbilt. Below is the ad if you have not seen it(click on picture to see it larger)or visit forwardrebels.com.


If you have questions, comments, or ideas email me Wally146@aol.com

Thanks

3rd Weekend Picks

North Texas +46 4 Star

I like this line for a lot of reasons. The first reason is that 46 points is a lot. North Texas has played and lost to two pretty decent teams to start the season (FIU and Houston). Only thing that gives me some doubt in this is that the Mean Green may not cross the 50 against the Bama defense. The main reason I like this is that Bama plays Arkansas next week. Coaches will say one game at a time, don't know who we play next week, etc, etc. I will tell you that in this case they are looking ahead to next week. Nick Saban has respect for the game of football and has good sportsmanship. He will not run the score up against North Texas because he has bigger goals in mind. I will not say this is the lock that Bama was against Penn State last week. I gave that 5 stars.

Houston -7 3 Star

The Houston Cougars have Case Keenum back from an injury that ended his season last year. They are going to score points no matter who they play. One thing I know is that I am glad they rotated off Ms State's schedule this year.

Opening weekend I went 0 for 3 on picks. (USM/Georgia/BYU)
2nd weekend 2 for 2 (Bama/Florida)
Season: 2 for 5 which is obviously under 50%
5 Star 1 for 1
4 Star 1 for 2
3 Star 0 for 2

LSU at MSU



I said this in my blog post earlier in the week. LSU is super talented especially on defense. They are big, fast, and physical. Les Miles has used like 15 rabbits feet in his time at LSU. At some point something has to go against him. Dan Mullen needs his team to play the best game they have played since he has been in Starkville. Starkville is going to be rocking today/tonight, so there will be a home field advantage. Over the last couple of years these Thursday night games have caused numerous upsets. The chance is small, but the Bulldogs have a chance. From one of the funniest movies of all time Dumb and Dumber "So you are saying there's a chance". The fact is.. If MSU wins this game tonight it will be the biggest win for MSU in my lifetime.

Short week and I have a lot of work to get done so I am getting this one out earlier this week. My opinion typically changes during the week, but this is how I feel today.

Week Two College Football

It was clear early in the Bama/Penn State game that Penn State was simply over matched. Every time Bama’s defense made a tackle they pounded the Penn State ball carrier. LSU and Bama may have the best two defenses we have ever seen. Between those 2 defenses there are 20+ NFL players. 6-8 of those players will be MAJOR contributors in the NFL.



Another strong SEC team that is somehow flying under the radar is the Florida Gators. They have not played a team yet that could challenge them, but that will change this week. Derek Dooley has Tennessee on the rise. Vegas opened this line up at 10, but it has gone down some to Florida -8.5. I feel this is high for a rivalry game, but Florida has a good football team. As of today I am putting them as the front runner for the SEC East.

I made a mistake last week saying La Tech was a conference game for USM. Their first conference game was against Marshall on the road this past weekend. I really don’t even know what to think about this game. I looked at the score of this game early and USM appeared to be rolling. USM scored on a long TD pass with 5:45 left in the second quarter to go up 17-3. After this they had 10 straight possessions that either ended in a punt, fumble, or interception. This was a really bad loss for USM. They were the better team and if they had cut their turnovers (6) in half they would have won the game. USM plays Southeastern LA this weekend. They will win that game and move to 2-1, but the Marshall game will haunt them for the rest of the year. After the SELA game USM plays Virginia and Rice, two teams that are better than I thought they would be going into the season.

Ole Miss travels to Vanderbilt this weekend for a game that is huge for both of them. Vandy has started 2-0, but they have not played very good competition. Ole Miss has played the best competition of the two teams when they lost to BYU. BYU took Texas to the wire, but I am still not sold on them. This past weekend Ole Miss did not look good in a game they should have absolutely dominated. Vegas pretty much has this game as a pick game with Ole Miss favored by 1 point. Ole Miss has more talent, but I think Vandy has better coaching. Flip a coin to decide who you think will win this game. Around 3 o’clock on Saturday one team will be moving on with momentum and excitement. The other team will have some serious doubt. My coin flip landed on tails… tails was Ole Miss.


In order for Mississippi State to become the team/program they are trying to be they have got to figure out some way to get that little extra. It is so small, yet it is so big. Yes there were some borderline calls in this game that went against MSU, but the Bulldogs still had a chance.




Either way MS State lost a game they should have won and enter the toughest week of the season. They play, in my opinion, the best team in the country on a short week. I have been on this LSU team a couple of weeks now. They are super talented on defense. You will quickly understand on Thursday night what I mean about this defense/team. Line on this game is -3 to -4 depending on where you look. Dan Mullen needs his team to play the best game they have played with him as the coach. I am not writing Ms State off in this game. If Ms State plays a solid game this will be close football game in the 4th quarter. Maybe this time the Bulldogs will figure out how to get that little extra. No prediction on this game from me.

Week One College Football

First thing I will say about the first week of college football is that I am just glad it is here. I was so tired of hearing about all the scandals, investigations, tattoos, prostitutes, etc. that was talked about in the off season. There are a little more than 14,000 football players in Division I. You have less than .1% of those people being talked about 99% in the off season. The media needs to get back to the positives of the other 99.99% of the players in college. That started by actually playing games. Even there though is scandal after scandal off the field. College football coaches and players are providing the best college football product ever right now.

Overall the SEC is still ridiculously good. Who didn’t see that coming?? The LSU defense wowed me on Saturday. Oregon has a good football team, but by the start of the 4th quarter they did not want anything else to do with the Tigers. Bama, Arkansas, Ms State, Florida, etc all rolled as expected.

Most people who read this will be interested in Ole Miss, USM, and/or MSU so I will talk about them. The Ole Miss coaching staff absolutely gave that game away to BYU. BYU did start to move the ball late on the Rebel defense, but I just didn’t see them giving up another TD on defense. The play that led to the fumble was POOR coaching by Lee or Nutt or whoever called the play. I don’t remember the exact distance. I think it was 3rd and 26 or 27. Did Houston Nutt really think they were going to get a first down by throwing the ball? In that situation you cut your losses, run the ball, and punt. The Rebels should still win 5 games, but Nutt is out in Oxford the first week of December.

USM was sloppy, but it was the first game and the conditions were beyond terrible. I would have said this same thing about Ole Miss if they beat BYU… A win is a win. USM should be able to go on the road to Marshall and get a conference win Saturday. Marshall got beat up on by West Virginia in a game that also had bad weather.

Memphis had no chance against Ms State. The bulldogs have too many weapons and could have scored 100 points if they wanted to Thursday. We see what the Bulldogs are made of Saturday with their first conference game. Auburn won a game they shouldn’t have over Utah State. Sometimes that is exactly what a team needs to get it going. Vegas has the Bulldogs favored by 7 on the road. I agree with Vegas on this. The Bulldogs win against Auburn and probably cover. HELLO LSU next Thursday!

Alabama is going to dominate Penn State on Saturday. Take that at -10 with everything.

College Football Predictions - MS Teams

Southern Miss (10-2) Best Case Undefeated Worst Case 8-4


Let me start by saying this.. USM has a joke for a schedule. You can’t predicted how all teams will be this year, but their predicted schedule strength is 112 out of 120 teams. They play 9 teams that ended last season with a losing record and one with a .500 record. The only team I see competing with them in the CUSA east is UCF. The game against UCF on November 12 will be the biggest game of the year for USM. You are definitely not a USM fan if you don’t go support your team that game.

I feel like USM will slip up against someone prior to their November 12th game. If I had to make a guess I would say playing Navy on the road will be the loss. The week after Navy they play SMU at home in a game that will be tough, but I think USM will take care of business in that one. I have USM beating UCF in the biggest game of the year on November 12, but I have them losing in a trap game the following week against UAB.

I predict USM will then play the C-USA Championship game at home against Houston. They will win this game and go on to play an SEC team in the Liberty Bowl. USM will then get to see what kind of team they really are. Nonetheless USM will have a season fans should be proud of. 10 plus wins is good no matter what league or division you play in.



Ole Miss (5-7) Best Case 7-5 Worst Case 4-8

Everyone knows about BYU coming to Oxford this weekend. This is an enormous game for Ole Miss. I really don’t know about the outcome of this game because there are so many question marks going into this season for Ole Miss. I want to say they will win because they are a SEC school with size and speed, but BYU has a good team. Vegas currently has BYU as a 3 point favorite. This means Vegas is saying they are a 7-10 point favorite on a neutral site. I will predict this game to be close, and if I had to pick I would say BYU will leave with the win in a nail bitter. After all is said and done this will be one of the best games of the weekend. As I said above this game is a huge game for the Ole Miss coaching staff, players, and the fans. A win here could bring the best case scenario above into play.

Ole Miss will then beat Southern Il, Vandy, Fresno State, Kentucky, and La Tech. The Rebels will compete in almost every SEC game they play this year, but I just don’t see them being talented enough to beat UGA, Bama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, or MSU. However, Ole Miss always gives LSU hell and that probably won’t change this year. I predict MSU to win the Egg Bowl, but that is a game where anything can happen especially if the Rebels or on the best case scenario path.

I have talked about the best case scenario for the Rebels a couple of times in this, but I just don’t see their season heading in the direction of 7 wins. All the questions and a top 20 strength of schedule appear to set up for a rough year in Oxford. With that being said Houston Nutt will be as John Hobson says Gawn. 2 straight losing seasons, 2 straight seasons without a bowl, and worst of all 3 straight losses to the Bulldogs will send Nutt packing. Two rough seasons in a row make the 2 Cotton Bowl victories seem like a decade ago. Who knows if firing Nutt will be the right or wrong decision, but I predict that it will happen.



Mississippi State (8-4) Best Case 10-2 Worst Case 5-7

I have struggled with this prediction for a couple of months now, but I have with my mind and some heart decided to go with MSU ending the season 8-4. The Bulldogs pretty much have 4 non-conference guarantees. Memphis should be improved this year, but I see the Bulldogs beating them by at least 4 TDs. Ms State will probably at some point in the game score TDs on 3 or 4 straight possessions, maybe more. The Bulldogs just have too much size and speed for Memphis to keep this remotely close.

The season for MSU then really begins with a trip to the Plains in a bloody mary game Sept 10. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs. I believe they will beat Auburn just because Auburn has so many question marks with the loss of almost everyone except Dyer. The Bulldogs then have LSU in Starkville on Thursday night. Entering this game with a 2-0 record will make Davis Wade Stadium the place to be. These big time Thursday night games have not been good for Mississippi teams the last decade. Will MSU stop the losing streak to the Bayou Bengals? I really have no idea, but one can only imagine that place if they get a win. I have this game along with Georgia, USC, Bama, and Arkansas as the toss up game for the Bulldogs this year. The bulldogs will win the 4 non conference games, Auburn, UK, and Ole Miss along with one other win against the five other SEC teams on the schedule.

Realistically MSU fans should be happy with an 8-4 season and a second consecutive bowl game. The offseason will be filled with questions of whether Dan Mullen will leave or not. I think the only way he leaves Starkville, is if Ohio State offers him their open job or Joe Pa finally hangs it up and Penn State comes calling.